He is working on some charts though and will likely make a special appearance on Monday Evening to be integrated with the other threads.
I'll definitely be checking in - and will probably post some charts on Sunday Evening in lieu of Andy (or, if I-Man, or Nic want to offer something of that nature, let me know and I'll cue it up)...
Summertime weekends take me away a bit as well because there are a number of chores to do (and, of course, there's THE GREAT OUTDOORS)... :-)
As long as Roman doesn't show up...
34 comments:
See...
In the Great Outdoors you can run around "naked as a bear" and no one will know!...
When I am king, there will be some new rules. Among these concerns commercials on tv.
1. No Geico commercials
2. No Burger King commercials
3. No jewelry channels on satellite.
4. No prescription drug commercials.
5. No Progressive insurance commercials.
6. No religious channels on satellites, unless ordered by me
7. No ambulance chasing lawyer commercials. No lung cancer commercials.
Gotta go run at the track, but I know there are a few more that I can't stand. Maybe we could choose our commercials in the future, and instead of Geico, we'd get a Go Daddy in its place?
AR, thanks for the WTI chart addition!
BinT, I can help you! Just don't watch television.. : )
Nic, I made a direct appeal to LB's alter ego.. it is up to him now.
Hope everyone has a lovely weekend.. I've been given another day of sun before June gloom and the surf's up! My 24 year old is off to NY tomorrow (another drive to LAX for me) in search of an M&A job.. he's a genius and handsome if anyone has any contacts.. I'll check back tomorrow for the latest and greatest news to re-inflate the markets..
B in T,
The Geico gecko isn't so bad.
Karen @ 2:26
"M&A".... they should call it M.A.D.; mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures.
Convince CEO's to buy up smaller companies.... convince other CEO's to divest the companies they bought just two years earlier.
For $500K/year, who wouldn't want that kind of work?
I'm sitting on the beach ! That's iPhone magic. The XX in my ears. And surf is overhead!! Buy aapl on the dip! : )
"Buy AAPL on the dip".
Interesting divergence between AAPL and the Nasdaq, which I didn't notice until just now.
Does suggest that AAPL could get down to $190 or so (maybe lower).
Karen I am so jealous!
John Mauldins letter tonight is one of his best ever:
The case for a Fed rate hike
@Amen Ra, what's your blog address?
Thanks.
I meant to add a ditto to the friday thread, you guys rock.
bob
karen -
lb has an ego? even an alter(ed) one? who'd have thunk it?
Karen -
the son of a college classmate has been in manhattan the last couple or 3 years in banking (not sure what area), loves the madcap life there. i'll ask if he has any advice, suggestions, leads, etc, but he has serious qualms about the "climate" in which he finds himself (he spent 12 years at the quaker friends school of baltimore, jewish mom, catholic dad)) so might not be an advocate of "the life" as the banking profession might be considered "pro's."
McFearless, you will like this. Good article in todays UK Financial Times by well respected historian Simon Schama. Naked Capitalism has posted some of article too.
The world teeters on the brink of a new age of rage
In Europe and America there is a distinct possibility of a long hot summer of social umbrage.
Historians will tell you there is often a time-lag between the onset of economic disaster and the accumulation of social fury. In act one, the shock of a crisis initially triggers fearful disorientation; the rush for political saviours; instinctive responses of self-protection, but not the organised mobilisation of outrage.
Act two is trickier. Objectively, economic conditions might be improving, but perceptions are everything and a breathing space gives room for a dangerously alienated public to take stock of the brutal interruption of their rising expectations. What happened to the march of income, the acquisition of property, the truism that the next generation will live better than the last?
The psychological impact of financial regulation is almost as critical as its institutional prophylactics. Those who lobby against it risk jeopardising their own long-term interests. Should governments fail to reassert the integrity of public stewardship, suspicions will emerge that, for all the talk of new beginnings, the perps and new regime are cut from common cloth. Both risk being shredded by popular ire or outbid by more dangerous tribunes of indignation.
Those on the receiving end of punitive corrections - in public sector wages or retrenched social institutions - will lash out at their remote masters. Those in the richer north obliged to subsidise what they take to be the fecklessness of the Latins, will come to see not just the single currency, but the European project as an historic error and will pine for the mark or franc. Chauvinist movements will be reborn, directed at immigrants and Brussels dictats, with more destructive fury than we have seen since the war.
Claims that Washington has been captured for socialism are preached on right-wing talk radio as gospel truth. As they did in the 1930s with Father Coughlin, the radio demonisers are pitch-perfect orchestrators of hatred for listeners in bewildered economic distress. Against this tide, facts are feeble weapons.
If his government is to survive the November elections with a shred of authority, it will need Barack Obama to be more than a head tutor. It will need him to be a warrior of the word every bit as combative as the army of the righteous that believes it has the Constitution on its side, and in its inchoate thrashings, can yet bring down the governance of the American Republic.
Nic, bailouts will solve everything.
Quiet so far this weekend. What surprises are in store for the Asian market open?
Weekly 3LB Update 5/21/10
nic -
thanks for the tip to yves' post on schama. this comment seemed right up cv's alley
MindTheGAAP says at 11:51 am:
Think of all the points of vulnerability we have now: electrical grids, phone networks, chip deliveries, more urbanization, which means populations dependent on food deliveries as well as government-provided water and sewer services.
Whether you realize it or not, your argument is not one of revolution–it is one of collapse. There is not sufficient talent or money in the system to maintain this infrastructure, let alone upgrade it. Once the effects of this become apparent to the general public (apparently rolling power outages every summer aren’t quite enough), rebellion is beside the point altogether.
And in the end, every country will inevitably collapse if its society revolves around the implicit promises of $20 oil and only 10-15% of income being diverted to reliably-delivered food. An even cursory investigation into the commodities markets would tell you that it is not even remotely possible that either of those conditions will hold going forward.
As scary as the international financial crises may seem right now, hindsight will likely view them as an insignificant side show in the grander scheme of early 21st century history. The major problem facing most of the world–including the first world–is a lack of basic resources (food, water, energy), and these resources can’t be printed overnight, nor even corrected over a few years. The secondary problems you mention–those of maintaining an ever-increasingly complex infrastructure (the phone lines and power grid and microchips you mentioned)with an ever-dwindling financial base and talent pool–likely won’t be solved either, although there are (for now) ways of doing so if society cared enough to wean itself off of American Idol long enough to bother.
@ karen
with that, wish i could spend some time in the sun on the beach this weekend.
Pathetic as it sounds I sometimes feel bored when you guys all go to sleep.. I know probably I should post sometimes to justify my daily presence but I can't talk sensibly about technical trading and I don't have the witty rejoinders that the regular posters do. I visit many internet haunts including a few finance blogs ones but this is my favourite - its not that I trade but that I thirst for knowledge about the way the world runs.
Funnily enough I've enjoyed the tape talk here so much that I even opened a trading platform last month - haven't executed one trade (tooooo scared) ha!
I've learned from this blog that after drawing on the price chart the various SMAs/EMAs and then the resistance/support lines and then the short and long term channels and the umpteen fibos of all of the above, then begin to consider the 1min, 15min, 60min and daily candlestick charts and the hundreds of impossibly-named stick patterns then you look at RSI/MACD/Advance-declines then think about pattern formation and various conflicting wave interpretations, all the while knowing there are market-makers (not to mention HF algos) trying to shake out your stops then the whole thing seems a suicidal enterprise... unless you are a battle-hardened veteran of 20-odd years professional trading. CV, Amen-Ra, Ben, Leftback, Karen, I-man, DL, Nic, Ahab, Mannich, BinT, McHappy and all other regulars thank you for posting and I hope you all make fortunes. And if you are ever unable to sleep and you get the urge the post something in the middle of the night you can be sure someone is reading with interest on the other side of the world.
Best Bertie
Hi Bertie
There is a really good site for beginners to technical trading called www.babypips.com
If you go there and click on school then you can get the hang of it step by step, if you are interested in technical trading it gives you a good basis.
I am an fx trader and its a 24hr market, so I check pretty much round the clock :)
I will post you what I am reading in the wee hours!
I have a Trader friend in Oz and I thought things were pretty good down under but he had this to say last night:
The Oz economy suffers a little from Governments that treat the people like they live in the land of Oz. Many know that it is called "the lucky country" but few know that the author who coined the term meant it disparagingly.
In the GFC the government spent hugely from the prior governments surpluses promoting the purchasing of flat screen tvs. They also doubled the prop-up on first home purchases. The nett of that is that rather than unwinding debt Aussies continued to grow it.
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/
So as well as having a dependence on Chinese resource purchasing (the bizarre thing is that despite record demand and record prices Aussies as a nation still spent more each month than they earned) there is a debt mountain that will pop in a nasty way if there is a next pin applied to the balloon.
A "major" appliance retailer, Clive Peters, went bust this week and after months of news reports that the Aussie economy was rocking along it turns out that the big retailers have been experiencing 2008 (gfc was late here) level pain this year.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/fears-more-will-follow-clive-peeters-collapse-20100522-w345.html
--------------
Sigh. Australia is just like Canada then.
Oh thanks Nic!! I must say thats sounds a pretty tough gig (I love my sleep!!) I will try that site you suggested for sure (though not sure I have the fortitude for anything other than my normal day job ha..I'm a chemist that's ended up in engineering) services.
Oh and I forgot to thank Andy, doh(!) though I've thanked him by email previously, plus Bob and 72bat and spoonman and any others.
G'nite all, it even late in my time zone now!
Bertie
Nic:
I am taking us all hiking today. The weather is magnificent with a capital M today.
But about the Schama article. I do think we are headed down the socialist democracy trail, and I don't plan to riot or protest. I look at this as the result of the last national election. The result is what it is...
I can't help but note that 300-700k public workers including doctors and nurses are scheduled for job cuts in Britain. They are much further down the road than we've come, and will suffer greatly as the global debt deleveraging gains speed.
Frankly, trying not to be jinoistic but as fair-minded as I think I can be, I think there will be more rage in Britain than here in the colonies.
...just my 2 cents.
jingoistic he thought he typed...
bertie -
i am more of your camp appreciating, rather than contributing much to, the breadth and depth of insight and grasp of technicals and macro view(s) shared here. it helps keep me grounded in a world of market and government actions that seem so insane. i try to restrain myself from commenting as threads can expand some days and take up people's valuable time wading through the chat. still it's all part of the mix of bonhomie, civility, and respect folks here afford each other, along with a healthy dollops of irreverence that keeps me checking in all thru the work day. adding my heartfelt thanks to all those you named with special kudos to the heavy lifters, cv & amenra.
I think you are right BinT
The financial reform bill has been completely gutted, there is nothing in it to restore any kind of the safety of Glass Steagal, nothing to limit bank size and nothing to prevent TBTF. The derivates ban is likely to be removed too but no one seems to be talking about it.
It wouldn't surprise me if the market rallies next week now that the banks are "saved" again.
One love, Bertie...
CV,
I got some charts about finished up that you're welcome to share here if you are still interested.
I've been distracted by the NCAA lax tourney (go CAVS!!!), my in laws in town, a great reggae show on Friday night, and the damn starlings that keep ripping up my broccoli and carrot seedlings...
But I've got some DXY and SPX I'm working on, and should have them finished up before evening.
I'll let you know when I get them up at Dread.
Getting psyched for the UVA/Stony Brook game... Cavs going into a hostile environment to lock up a spot in the Final Four.
I'm calling Cornell, UVA, to make up the remaining two spots alongside Duke and Notre Dame.
@I-Man
I will definitely put them up...
Let's work it this way... I've taken to working INDOORS today because we had some thunderstorms roll thru... Got the outdoor stuff (half of it) done yesterday...
About 6PM (EST). I'm going to be getting to a thread... If your charts are up, publish them on DREAD...
For anyone reading this that doesn't know... I-Man publishes his own charts at...
DREADCAPITAL.BLOGSPOT.COM
I'll take what you publish there and integrate it here as well...
I know you're on a 3hr time difference, but don't worry... If your charts aren't ready when I launch, I'll integrate them after they are...
CV
BTW (all)
LOL... Andy texted me from his phone on his camping trip...
He informed me... LOL... That he IS, IN FACT, at a "Jellystone Park"...
(seems they have "all you could ask" for the kids)...
Basically, all the ADULTS are tying one on at the campgrounds while the kids waterslide...
See people... P3 doesn't have to be so damn bad! :-)
Way to go Andy!
Sounds like a plan brah.
I have the UVA/SB game set to record, so I'll get crackin on polishing up those charts.
Its been raining here all weekend... I had a storm fill up my new 65 gal rain barrel in about 25 minutes yesterday...
Good thing my overflow hose was set up right! I might get another one and daisy chain it.
This is only the first downspout I've done, too.
Maybe I'll start selling bottled rainwater over the internet... with a cool label and a few celeb endorsements, I'm golden.
@I-Man
A man after my own heart...
I started with a 65 gallon barrel about 3 years ago...
Now I have...
- (2) 300 gallon-ers
- (6) 96 gallon-ers
- (10) 64 gallon-ers
- (12) 32 gallon-ers (but those have been converted now to grow potatoes - WAY better & easier than putting them on the ground)...
But that's all just the ME stock...
The laugh is... The same 25 minutes of downpour (if sufficient), could have EASILY stuffed 2000-3000 gallons (instead of 65)... Into what I call "micro-water"...
Humans (especially AMERICANS) need to learn to appreciate the MOST PRECIOUS of all resources...
"Broadcast Irrigation" IS NOT the way...
I&I is definitely on the path...
Nic, which were your favorite parts on the Maudlin letter? Maybe I need to readjust my thinking.. but i don't buy the V recovery. So he nearly lost me from the get go. Thanks for the OZ anecdote, btw.. Today, it is freezing here.. the sun is still out and I did hill walk along the ocean but not going in the ocean. So glad I took advantage of the last few days.
bat @ 8:29.. very very funny! : )
bertie, thanks for chiming in!
@Karen he starts out by saying that and then shows there isn't going to anything like the growth people are expecting and Fed rates are on hold for a very long long time.
I don't buy the V recovery, although technically its clear that we had a V bounce last March the economy is not going to live up to the markets expectations.
Grrrrrrr I wish I was better at EW.
McFearless / Andy T - I have a question.
What are the chances that the top we have just put in is not the end of wave 5 but the end of wave 3?
Thanks XXX
NEW THREAD UP
With "additions" to be added... (It may be a long nite)...
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