Weekend Edition - Week 6 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 19-9-2

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +9

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$830)

NFL Picks: 38-33-3

NFL (unit picks differential): +14

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$1,160)

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WEEK 7 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

ucf at MARSHALL (+5) - 1 unit (midweek game)

UCF 35 - Marshall 14 - Incorrect (-$110)

Ohio State at WISCONSIN (+4) - 1 unit

Wisconsin 31 - Ohio State 18 - Correct (+100)

Mississippi State at FLORIDA (-8) - 1 unit

Mississippi State 10 - Florida 7 - Incorrect (-110)

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, TCU

The big matchups of the week will be Auburn-Alabama & #1Ohio State-Wisconsin... I'm going to go with a play on Wisconsin, home dog "under the lights" at Camp Randall Stadium... This is the REAL test to see if this team & Terelle pryor are for real... Keep in mind that the preliminary BCS standings get releases on Sunday night... That means that I'm tossing away my usual search for "look ahead", or "look behind" spots (otherwise known as TRAP GAMES)... It means that I actually expect a lot of teams who are positioned in the Top 15 in the coaches & sportswriters polls to come through with "covers" on the line... As an example, I'd considered a play on TEXAS (to upset Nebraska), but with Nebraska on the heels of TCU & Boise State, and remembering the fact that Nebraska still feels "cheated" from the game with Texas last year (where they "outplayed" them, but ended losing a chance to go to the Rose Bowl on a last second FG)... Well, I'd actually be careful fading Nebraska here... They might be on a mission...

Week 7 NCAA Picks: 5-2-0

Week 7 unit pick differential: -1

Week 7 wager total: $-120

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 WEEK 7 NFL 

BYE WEEK: (Buffalo, Cincinnati, Arizona, Carolina)

I'll have these picks up by Sunday (with the game write-ups)... I'm looking to do multi-unit plays on Bears, Steelers, Texans, & Jaguars...

Injury Report: Cutler (BEARS/concussion) - Medically cleared and will play; Rogers (PACKERS/concussion) - Practiced Thursday, likely to start, but not confirmed; Addai (COLTS) Expected to start; Brown (COLTS) likely out; Hillis (BROWNS) Missed practice time, but likely to start; McFadden (RAIDERS) game time decision; Moreno (BRONCOS) Practiced, but limited; Thomas (SAINTS) out; Bryant (COWBOYS) didn't practice, likely out; Johnson (LIONS) Practiced Friday, but slightly limited, should play; Jones (TEXANS) likely to play; Finley (PACKERS) out, maybe out for season.

EARLY GAMES

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)

Line: Bears by 6

 CV likes: BEARS for (3 units)

 

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST)

Line: Packers by 3
CV likes: PACKERS for (0 units)

San Diego Chargers at St. Louis Rams (1:00 EST)

Line: Chargers by 8.5
CV likes: RAMS for (0 units)

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (1:00 EST)

Line: Patriots by 2.5

CV likes RAVENS for (1 unit)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Bucs (1:00 EST)

Line: Saints by 4
CV likes SAINTS for (0 units)

Detroit Lions at New York Football Giants (1:00 EST)

Line: Giants by 10
CV likes GIANTS for (2 units)

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 EST)

Line: Eagles by 2.5
CV likes EAGLES for (1 unit)

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST)

Line: Steelers by 13.5

CV likes STEELERS for (3 units)

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)

Line: Texans by 4.5

CV likes TEXANS for (5 units)

LATE GAMES

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 EST)

Line: 49ers by 6.5
CV likes 49ERS for (1 unit)

New York Jets at Denver Broncos (4:05 EST)

Line: Jets by 3

CV likes JETS for (0 units)

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (4:15 EST)

Line: Vikings by 1.5

CV likes COWBOYS for (0 units)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Indianapolis Colts at Washington Redskins (8:20 EST)

Line: Colts by 3

CV likes COLTS for (0 units)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Jacksonville Jaguars (8:35 EST)

Line: Thumbtacks by 3

CV likes JAGUARS for (4 units)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Force fields are illegal. Let me in!

SPX
Spinning top day (another hanging man set free). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed 1177.84 (the .0344 fibo from high) again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1165.15). QE2infinity (aka the beginning of the end).



DXY
Bullish short day (formed a bullish piercing but 1st day should be longer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested its 85.4% retrace at 76.29 and passed. Well below 78.41 (.0557 from low). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.32).



VIX
Bearish short day (upper shadows indicating direction it wants to go). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.21). Managed to return to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish engulfing day (or so they want you to think). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1347.70).



EURUSD
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3840). Table throwing at the G20?



JNK
Homing pigeon day (but we're in an uptrend and it's mostly for downtrends). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 100% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.01).



10YR YIELD
Bullish LONG day (after closing gap). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 is the line in the sand. Back above the weekly 3LB mid (25.35) and SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.81).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day (confirmed hanging man and bearish harami). Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4583.57).



CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failed the Gann 1x1. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 299.93).




YEN (FXY)
Bearish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested but failed its 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 120.86). There's pain and then there's pain. Domo arigatou.

Morning Audibles 10.15.10

Got a headache?

IT happens... (mostly to yours truly - so I'm not as concerned as I perhaps should be about your silly problems)...

Capital Markets are always going to make somebody grumpy in one way or another... It is, in fact, all GAMBLING, so some are going to go home happy, and some grumpy on any given day... (Assuming there's REAL MONEY, not "pretend money" at risk)... The only one who is RARELY grumpy is the casino owner (who just takes the vig from both sides)... Or, perhaps, the person who sits around and collects a paycheck from somebody, but sits around and blogs all day on his employers time...

As for the REAL RISK bunch... And the casino operators who take their vig... There IS actually a way to make him grumpy... How do you do that? Easy! You take away all the clients... The FED, the banks, & the politicians are the casino owners here, and they simply don't understand a world where all the former "gung-ho" clients have had their pockets emptied, and are trying desperately to go back home with the last token of bus fare in their pockets...

They'll do everything in their power to shut down the bus terminal, keep you in town, and convince you to bet that last token on a shiny new machine that's a guaranteed winner...

Yours truly is sick of this game, and that's why I'm grumpy... I'm sick of the game, I'm sick of the casino owners, I'm sick of the "promoters" of the casinos, I'm sick of the conned people, I'm sick of the gargantuan efforts to enlighten the conned people, I'm sick of the fact that most of this has been brought out into full daylight, yet people still don't choose another path, and MOST OF ALL, I'm sick of hypocrites who try to play both sides...

Yes, you hypocrites know who you are...

You're the "Wall Streeters" who blog about a housing crisis, write a book, get a bunch of little elves to follow you around... Then, the CRISIS you predicted finaly becomes manifest... YOU'RE A HERO!... So how do you celebrate your accomplishment?... You sit there and watch a policy response that you must KNOW is doomed to eventually create an even deeper problem, and negatively effect the lives of tens of thousands (if not millions) of people... And do you complain about that?... No! And why? Because the "failed policy" response, in this case, happens to allow YOURSELF to feed at the trough...

It's a sin when mortgage brokers were pushing Ponzi finance scemes onto the market under the guise of a housing bubble, but now that that has all collapsed, and you have the FED trying to keep asset prices afloat, you're using the liquidity and leverage which is created in that process... And your rationale for doing so is...

"Do you want to be right? or do you want to make money"... Hmmm, it seems to me that the people you were railing against 5 years ago were saying the same thing at the time...

Probably the only thing more more comical than your hypocrisy, are your little school of PILOT FISH, who hang around your little "losers come all" open cocktail party (and add their contributions to the crapheap)...

Earlier this week, before a class, I got into a discussion at the gym about this "so-called" PROBLEM that is bantered about in the blogosphere all day long...

I explained that THE PROBLEM is simply that we're facing something CANNOT FIXED... At this point in time, it's in broad daylight, and yet everyone is standing around wondering what they should do... It's a cadaver people... There's no pulse, and it's not breathing... You're only wasting time and medicine by trying to bring it back to life...

Market BEARS know this... It's only a matter of time... Now, that TIME thing is tricky because the longer TIME goes on, the more opportunity there is for people to believe that the cadaver is not, in fact, dead... "Ooh, I think I saw a twitch there, did you see it? There was a twitch!"... NO PULSE, NO RESPIRATION, and you're talking to me about twitches that you think you saw?

I think that's the thing that irritates me the most (having to stand around and listen to all the rationalizations of all the people who think this can be fixed)...

"Oh well, I KNOW it's all going to fail, but hey look! AAPL is at $300"... "GOOG was up 10% last night"... "Gold is going to the moon"... "Oh we're SURE to take out the April 1220 highs by the end of the year"... "These markets will stay supported thru the elections, stay long!"...

There should be a law that says any company that invented this should

be BARRED from having a $300 stock price...

Anyway, all of the desire to grasp on FALSE HOPE INDICATORS isn't really helping the problem...

There is actually a bright side to all of this (for me)... Most people (most "Americans" - I should say), are woefully unprepared for a serious collapse... Despite the enormous measures I've taken to gain a degree of self sufficiency over the past couple of years, I still consider myself behind the curve... That's mostly because, over time, and in preparation, you start realizing things that you'd never considered before...

So this "stalling", this "kicking the can" down the road, has actually given me more time to accomplish things without having to do it in a hasty manner... It's like a "hobby" now...

But a warning to you all... If I've been at this a couple of years now, (and I still feel unprepared)... Well - just think about that for a minute... I will guarantee you that nobody could prepare themselves properly (even if they were given a guaranteed one months notice)... 

And don't expect that "notice" to come along... Like they say... "Nobody rings a bell at the top"...

And as for headaches... If this blog gives you one, then I suggest you not read it... Or otherwise take an ASSpirin...

Or, as I've heard... Some medicines can be taken this way, and are the preferred method used by the company they keep...