AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: It's my job to make you nervous holding over the weekend.

SPX
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed the 23.6% (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Closed above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 74.19). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Bullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (16.75). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.40). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Failed to hold SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4508).




JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Hammer day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Back below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.42).



WTI
Spinning top day. Held SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (98.41). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.39). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (50.11). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 51.81).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 5.13.11

"We're back!!!"

Looks like the post and comments from yesterday are lost. So be it.

Today will be an open thread as the market is trying to sell off.

Morning Corner 5.12.11

CSCO (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 17.59
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 17.59
rev= 16.98; mid= 17.29

It seems like every 12-13 weeks a bearish long candle is formed. This is the 13th week since the last one. Considering the earnings report they released after the close the long bearish may happen by Friday. They had a profit that was -18% YoY. So these small moves higher must have been just for show.



AIG (weekly info)
new low 30.82
trend=down
low= 30.82
rev= 32.11; mid= 31.47


Are they really going to the market to raise funds? With the performance they were having this year who would want to buy the new debt? At this rate of decline the March 2009 lows are going to be tested.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Bear: "My turn..."

Creditcane™: Today was a hastily arranged match. Rematch still scheduled July 1, 2011.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed 14.6% retrace (1352.84) but held the 23.6% (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bullish long day (denied the bearish harami pattern). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 73.12).



VIX
Bullish short long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (16.75). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.40). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Failed to hold SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



AUDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(21) & SMA(144). Failed to hold parallel trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8868).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Still failing the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.23).



WTI
Bearish long day (morning star pattern went supernova). Failed to hold SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (101.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Bearish long day (another morning star went supernova). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.05). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.39). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



RBOB Gasoline
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21) and held SMA(55). No test of 0.0% retrace (3.42). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (3.19). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.40).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 5.11.11

The credit markets have been quiet lately, bond prices drifting upwards on lower Treasury yields and stable credit spreads. Today was typical. Note that JNK hasn't been selling off, and typically credit leads equities, so no sign here yet of a liquidity shortage. Fixed income as a whole remains highly vulnerable to rate risk.

Corpies: LQD 0.16%; AGG 0.18%; JNK -0.18%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.57%; IEI 0.23%; TIP -0.32%
Munis: IQI -0.57%; MUB 0.23%
Mortgages: MBB 0.02%
Specialty: ZROZ 1.05%; TBT -1.03%; EMB -0.03%

We have a bit of JNK and a bit of TLT, but basically haven't been involved lately. At the close we shorted the long end, both to fade the recent move and in view of initial claims tomorrow. This is a noisy series so the danger is of a downside surprise in the number, indicating improving employment conditions, and triggering Treasury weakness.

Of course a decent number would be DXY positive, but not necessarily equity positive as the commodity rout might be extended.

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 5.11.11

10 Yr Note (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 122.266
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 122.266
rev= 118.266; mid= 120.266

Somehow someway the 10yr Note has a bid under it. Why anyone would by the 10yr with this low yield is beyond me.



IWM/SPY Liquidity (weekly info)
-no change
trend=no
direction=yp (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6010; mid= 0.6177

This liquidity substitute indicates the liquidity is increasing this week. Did anyone see the volume for 5/10/11? Liquidity from where is the question.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Todays trading tape...

Creditcane™: I will fight on. Rematch scheduled July 1, 2011.

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and held 14.6% retrace (1352.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Spinning top day (barely confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 72.93).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Still above SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



VIX
bearish long day (ocnfirmed dark cloud cover). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(21). Failed its 14.6% retrace (16.75). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 18.40). Still in the "no fear" zone.



EURUSD
Hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4833).



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Still failing the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.23).



WTI
Bullish short day (confirmed morning star). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (101.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Bullish short day (confirmed morning star). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the upper trend line. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.59). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.26).



EEM
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Back above weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.20).



AT's Silver Glimpse:

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Hope and Change By The Numbers

Reader QQQQTrader created this chart last week. It's an interesting one that shows the relative performance of various "things" since Obama has taken office. (He Titled it "Hope and Change")

After last weeks news of Bin Laden's death, the folks who "lean left" politically are now completely convinced he will be re-elected. Indeed, INTRADE polls show a 65% Chance of a Democrat being elected in 2012.

It's difficult to imagine Obama not getting re-elected, but that's mostly because the GOP has no legitimate candidates.  It's almost as if they're returning the John Kerry favor from 2004.

Despite all the euphoria over the "courageous decision" to kill OBL and the absence of any 'real' challengers of any kind, it's still important for Obama to understand the importance of this chart:




It shows that Employment, the US Dollar, and Home Prices are all DOWN since January 2009 while things like Energy, Food, Metals, and Public DEBT are WAAAAY up.

Now, we all know that the "O" inherited a mess of situation when he took over (and he'll remind us of this OVER and OVER again), but these numbers will need to change by 2012 in order for him to get re-elected.  If gas is still $4+ bucks, U-6 (Real Unemployement #) is still near 20% and our Debts are piling up with no end in sight, he will have some serious problems in '12.  If the trends above continue, it will be a rocky road for "Hope and Change."  He'll need a Michelle Bachmann type of "favor."

From a trading perspective, INTRADE can be used to speculate.  I'm a seller of a Dem.2012 at 65% and a buyer at 55%.  This should be a "range bound" market until mid-2012.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Even with the Greece downgrade and Juncker's lying I can't cause any damage. What gives?

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and held 23.6% retrace (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Spinning top day (also bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still above SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 72.93).



VIX
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now below SMA(89). Failed its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.70). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Now above SMA(21). Almost tested its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4833).



JNK
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (31.41). Still failing the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.23).



WTI
Bullish long day (would say morning star but didn't get above mid of 1st day). Back above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (101.54). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Bullish long day (completed morning star). Still above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the upper trend line. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.59). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



TLT
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held above its 14.6% retrace (94.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 93.93).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011