AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Save me a spot on the grill since I was in NYC today.

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10) & (2/5/10-5/6/10). Above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and now the SMA(89). Pushing towards 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1051.87). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Failed the the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Heading for its 50% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.92).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.45). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bearish short day (too much "hair" for hanging man). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1234.20).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Back above the 4x1 Gann. Now above the SMA(21). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2731).



JNK
Bearish short day (but closed higher). Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the SMA(21). Closed the final gap (and created another one). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 24.77).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(144) & now the SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.5856).



TLT
Bullish long day. Back below the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed in the gap (so it's holding support for now). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 108.42). Trending down on the daily 3LB.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Back above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4160.79). Above weekly 3LB reversal price. Trending up on the daily 3LB.

Morning Audibles 9.3.10 - Let's Play Roulette!

Let's Play Roulette!

No! Not that kind!

Well maybe... But we'll get to that later... But if you're going to go that route, better start off with this here first... You know... get your feet head wet a little... See if you have a taste for the game...

I mean this kind... But NO, CV isn't turning into an online casino... Like this...

Or this...

How about we just play a guessing game? A roulette STYLE guessing game... Basically, in roulette, you have a number of different ways to lose your money to the house play... You could RISK IT ALL by playing particular numbers... Or you could go with a higher percentage, lower payout by opting to play RED/BLACK, or one of the parts of the number board divided three ways...


The reason I bring this game up now is... well... Because "the SUMMER OF HOPE" is just about over... The markets did their best job to sell off over the summer and couldn't manage to take that final step... We all know by now that 1040 seems to be a "line in the sand"... (emphasis on "seems")...


One 90% up day, off 1040, (that came on the first day of a new month - where "pros" traditionally offload their crap onto 401k managers), followed by a low volume day whereby the "indices" didn't even move 5 handles (on paltry volume), has excited many ROULETTE PLAYERS to belly up to the table with their stack of chips...


So what's it gonna be people?


I'm inviting anyone to play along with this game here... Remember last year when Andy T asked many to make their HIGH/LOW predictions for 2010... Well this is sort of like that, but with a twist... I'm going to put up a chart of how CV sees this playing out... I've drawn lines (to future levels), in the appropriate timeframes to illustrate my point... 

Obviously, this is a "particular" outcome... I'm not just calling for RED or BLACK here... 


Frankly, If the market does NOT go along the lines that I've outlined within the next couple of weeks, I'll have to re-evaluate my call... Timewise & pricewise, Mr. Market is coming to a decision point... When it makes that decision, it ought to move swiftly & decisively deeper into either the RED or BLACK region... If we end the year in the 1200-1300 ranges, I'm sure I'll be long gone by then (not BANKRUPT, mind you - instead, I feel the LEVELS that would change my opinion, and timeframes thereof, should make themselves visible very soon now that summer is ending)...


Anybody willing to make a prediction?... Send me your ideas, and I'll do my best to draw them on a chart (as I've done with mine)... I'll even publish them...


Or... If you want, you can just sit back and do NOTHING... You can just carry on about how governments manipulate stock prices into elections, and, of course, follow all that up with your extensive research on the subject... You could even take to publishing "original work" on your theories... Or you could just sit back and publish other peoples theories and ask everyone else what they think about it... When a consensus is reached, you could side with the consensus and make a lot of friends in the process...


Is that how Dale Carnegie did it? I'm not sure, because I always preferred the TRUTH to wasting my time making friends with people that, when push came to shove, I had little in common with, and who would abandon me in a heartbeat at the first sign of trouble...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Win_Friends_and_Influence_People

Making predictions is a risky business... Frankly, I feel like there is a 99% chance that nothing even resembling what I've drawn out on the chart above will eventually come to pass... But will I feel embarrassed later on when I published something that didn't come true... HELL NO! Why?... Because in REALITY, what I'm doing is going over the smaller imbalances and trying to profit from the reversion to mean...


In any case, what I'm definitely NOT doing is this...

Sitting around on a fence making only the vaguest of statements that can be interpreted loosely, and/or not committing to anything at all...


It's no wonder to CV that this country elects leaders like Bush or Obama... That's what happens when a person has NO IDEA of exactly what they'd like to see, and no way of expressing it, or illustrating it... In the end, they find themselves in a voting booth simply pulling the lever of the guy whose only substance was to tell you all that you wanted to hear, and avoided the conflict of having to look closely at yourself and making the tough decision... Which is called "commitment", and the "win/lose/or draw" risk involved with making a commitment...


The rest is just a ladies sewing circle...

Have fun ladies...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: What happened? I happened. I enjoy a confused market. Allows me to wreck more havoc.

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline (3/6/09-7/1//10). Above the SMA(21) & SMA(55). Holding above 1078.87 (1.618 fib from low). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1047.22). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Held the the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 83.26).




VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Now below the SMA(21) & SMA(144). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 26.44). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Bearish harami failed. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Yet is still heading towards the 0% (we'll see). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1234.20).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace. Still failing the 4x1 Gann. Now above the SMA(55). It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2672).



JNK
Bullish short day. Still failing to close gap. Above the SMA(21), SMA(89) & SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 has held. Midpoint above EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Closed the second gap (1 more left). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.85).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(144). Tested and failed SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.8121).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Back above the upper trendline and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4082.51). Above weekly 3LB reversal price.



WTI
Bullish short day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.63).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.2.10

Yesterday's FLIGHT FROM QUANTITY continued and the STEEPENER was extended today as inwestors shunned the long bonds they so eagerly embraced just last week. HY outperformed IG as spreads tightened a little. 2s10s got out there, to about 216 at one point, I think.

Corpies: LQD -0.13%; AGG -0.13%; JNK 0.18%; HYG 0.16%;
Govies: TLT -1.06%; IEI -0.14%; TIP -0.19%
Hedgies: TBT 2.17%

We did nothing in bonds - except to wish we had kept our shorts on overnight, but in this market sleeping naked means never having to say sorry you lost your profit in the morning.... actually we slapped on an equity short, responding to that little voice that reminds us we just made 5% in two days and it is Thursday.

The Friday before a long weekend usually sees a safety trade, so we see Treasuries being bought and a generally risk-off environment unless OBAMA has created a MILLION jobs overnight. We would probably fade the safety move into tomorrow's close as we think the long bond is a delicious short just at the moment.

Morning Audibles 9.2.10 - Secret Sauce

So we had a big "long white candle" day yesterday... Bulls are out again right... And there are blogs (and opinionaters) all over the web to explain why... Some will even tell you they FORECAST the move... Apparently these are individuals who possess some kind of "SECRET SAUCE" which we all want a dollop of... Right? RIGHT?


We'll get to that later... First I want to to get to the long white candle (from yesterday)... Here's what it looked like...

Actually, it looks to me like there have been a whole bunch of these since the April highs... They're not so uncommon after all... But, I can't say either they happen all that frequently (if you consider the aggregate number of candles)... The records will tell you that they RARELY happen in "bull markets"... More troubling is the fact that despite the fact that PRICES RISE when they appear out of nowhere, the "net sum" of prices has gone down... If you look closely, they seem to disappear altogether as they either reach, or peek over the red and blue lines (which are "moving averages", and other indicators that market TECHNICIANS put to use)... 


But TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is for sissies... How can one determine whether or not any form of technical analysis is valid? Who's the "Validation CZAR" in this country? What CV has found is that there are some around who are the first in line to "criticize" EWI theory, and as a substitute, grandstand around with their own genius ideas about how markets will behave... Here - I'll show you an example... I present to you "Thing 1 & Thing 2"...

Here comes that SECRET SAUCE I was promising, so get your pens & notebooks handy boys & girls...Thing 1 says...

Thing 2 (who operates in a perpetual state of agreement - as long as you're not a bully) says... I agree because that's what I do... When I'm not agreeing, I run around making sure everyone else agrees, and when that doesn't work I mesmerize everyone with cute puppy & kitten pictures until they soften up...

CV says... Hmmm... "ELECTIONS"... (or as an Asian might pronounce it... "E*ECTIONS" - no - we were doing Asian accents on yesterdays thread)... OK, so we've turned the calendar to September... We're in the final sprint to the November elections... So I guess this is the point where the GOVERNMENT MANIPULATORS (who - of course - always have their hand on the wheel and all things are firmly in their capable grasp) can just put the thing into cruise control... Capital Markets? Piece of Cake!...

We're on OTTOPILOT (as Thing 1 & Thing 2 point out), until election day... Otto the pilot will take it from here...


Since we have national elections every 2 years in this country (for now)... I decided to examine just HOW, on "ottopilot", things have been lately on this glide path & final approach...

2008 - Nothing to say but...DOH!

Meh... Must have been an abberation... Let's keep digging

2006 - Now that DUBYA knew how to "control" things... Right?

2004 - Hell yeah! That's what I call an ERECTION!

2002 - Eddie Munster's Hairdo?

2000 - Must have been all that missing WH China

1998 - Was LTCM running for Congress?

1996 - Al Gore "invented" control, right?

1994 - Holy Smokes - The Charlie Brown Shirt Pattern

1992 - It's the ECONOMY Stupid!

1990 - Grunge Never Looked So Good

1986 - "What the...?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41lTZaHMTCw&feature=related

1984 - Only Walter Mondale to beat and that's the best you could do?

1980 - Get Carter

Y'all can do whatever you want... The only thing apparent to me (over the past 30 years since I've been a registered voter), is that if one attempts to attach a GOVERNMENT MANIPULATION theme to CAPITAL MARKETS in the run-up to an election... and sees CORRELATION, or CAUSATION... Well to me, it has about as much correlation as this...

Or they might be smoking this...

Which, I suppose is OK if you're anonymous trader (using practice money)... But I'd think that someone who manages large chunks of OTHER PEOPLES MONEY (and accepts a certain responsibility for doing so)... Comes prepared with some better tools (instead of just coming "AS" a tool because the time period coincides with that of Halloween)...


Or there's always the nifty GLADIATOR outfit as well...

ROCKS