AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish long day. Now below the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint way below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and failed. Also it's now below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (take some off the table). Closed below the .021 fibo (using high) of 1194.18. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (again). Ignored all MA's. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bullish long day (closed gap). Still above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Tested the 14.6% fibo retrace and passed. Ignored 55 SMA and closed above the 21 & 89 SMA). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed back below the 50.0% fibo retrace (tested the 61.8% fibo retrace and failed). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1161.60.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and passed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK, etc). Closed back above trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint is now way below the 10 SMA. Closed below previous low of 147.81 and below 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 160.24.



JNK
Possible dragonfly doji day (again). Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Did not test any MA's. Couldn't break through previous high of 40.21. Daily 3LB reversal up with reversal now 39.70.

Morning Audibles 4.30.10 - Holy Cow! Criminal Charges?

U.S. Said to Open Criminal Inquiry Into Goldman

From NYT
"Federal prosecutors have opened an investigation into trading at Goldman Sachs, raising the possibility of criminal charges against the Wall Street giant, according to people familiar with the matter.


While the investigation is still in a preliminary stage, the move could escalate the legal troubles swirling around Goldman."


From Bloomberg
“In order to proceed criminally in a case, you need to have very clear evidence” said Jensen, a former deputy chief of the criminal division of the U.S. attorney’s office in the Southern District of New York who served on that office’s securities fraud task force.

Oh wait... WRONG GOLDMAN

Goldman "Sachs" Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein said in an interview with CBS News this week: “It is my belief that nothing unethical and nothing illegal has happened, but I will tell you if I discovered something like this, or any senior person at Goldman Sachs discovered illegal or unethical behavior, we would eliminate that from the firm.” (just like OJ)...

"Let me introduce you to my little friend"

While this is all fun to see splashed on to the front pages of all the news outlets, CV has "high skepticism" that anything significant will come of it. In fact, it might all just be the latest in the never ending diversionary tactics by the TPTB/Administration to keep you looking in the wrong direction...

"The major has been shot! Round up all the usual suspects!"

But it is fun to contemplate the possibilities. (can I take my money with me to jail?)

"Get your hands off my money"

In the end, though. It'll probably wind up "business as usual"

"These aren't the bankers you are looking for"

Because they've convinced everyone they're TOO BIG TO JAIL!

And even if some criminal charges were to stick, the perpetrators would most likely just end up sharing some bunk time at a CLUB FED type facility.

So it's best that we save our "HOLY COW's" for when they truly mean something (like the fact that it's the weekend, and your lawn needs mowing)...

Look...a chart! HOLY COW (and your lawn still needs mowing)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish long day. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint still below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and passed. Also it's back above the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (still have 1 more day). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Ignored all MA's. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Still above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. Also it's a tweezer top (82.71 is resistance). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Still above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Tested the 38.2% fibo ext and failed. Tested 55 SMA and passed (but failed test of 89 SMA). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed back below the 50.0% fibo ext. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and failed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece, Portugal, Spain, UK, etc). Did not test trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Possible dragonfly doji day (body is >10% of h-l range s/b 10% or less). Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Did not test any MA's. No daily 3LB changes.



BIDU
Bullish spinning top day. You would think with that opening gap up there would be more follow through. Blew through upper Bollinger Band. Daily 3LB reversal (no kidding) with reversal now 613.50.



GS
Bullish spinning top day. Closed above the 0.0% fibo ext. Midpoint is now above the 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 152.03. "Who me? You talkin' to me?"

Morning Audibles 4.28.10 - While You Were Sleeping

Here's what was happening while you were sleeping (Nic & McF, we know you don't sleep, but let's just "say" you were sleeping)...

Spanish Q1 2010 Unemployment Number Accidentally Leaked, Surpasses 20% For First Time Since 1997

http://www.neurosoftware.ro/finance/insurance/stock-market/spanish-q1-2010-unemployment-number-accidentally-leaked-surpasses-20-for-first-time-since-1997/

A freak leak of the Spanish unemployment number by the National Statistical Institute (INE), the equivalent to the DOL, was captured by Spanish daily ABC.es, according to which for the first time since 1997, the unemployment rate in the country that was notched by S&P today, will surpass 20%. This number was supposed to be under embargo until Friday. According to the temporary leak which was subsequently promptly removed, the number of unemployed in Spain increased from 4.3 million to 4.6 million between the end of 2009 and March 31, 2010. 


What’s worse is that the unemployment among Spain’s youth is reaching epidemic proportions: “the unemployment rate for those under 25 years in the first quarter of 2010 was 40.93% and 18.02% in those over 25 years. In the group of 16-19 years, the rate is 59.79% and 13.1% among the unemployed aged 55 and older.” Dealing drugs is probably a more lucrative job than working for the government anyway. No taxes either.


So how are S&P FUTURES taking this news (aware that Greece is about to default, and Spain, which is much LARGER, is one of a few in line to be the next domino)?...

Hey! They're UP!... Whadda ya know?

I carefully avoided using the one with Erin Burnett riding it.

All I can say is, well, we ARE in the zodiac sign of TAURUS... Problem is, there appear to be two different types of BULLS battling it out (one wants to "gore", and the other wants to "soar")... Maybe they're getting themselves confused with the TWINS?

Oh I know... I can do better than that! (right LB)?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish short day. Closed back above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint still below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and failed. Also it's still below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (still have 2 more days). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
High wave doji day (major volatility). Ignored the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Closed above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 80.19.



VIX
Bearish harami day (plus shadows within previous candle body). Still above the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Tested the 0.0% fibo ext and failed. Tested 144 SMA and passed. Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed back above the 50.0% fibo ext. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1161.10.




SLV
Bullish spinning top day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed back above 21 SMA. 3 days of indecision (what are they waiting for?). No daily 3LB changes.



10YR YIELD
Bullish day. Closed back above the 55 & 89 SMA. Closed above the 14.6% fibo ext (barely). No daily 3LB changes.

DL's Domain

DL's HERO

Morning Audibles 4.28.10 - Too 'Cheap' To Pass Up

The following foto is of my keyboard AFTER I woke up this morning and perused the various headlines and blogosphere...

The main culprit? This little gem...

Global Stocks $1 Trillion Loss No Reason to Sell for U.S. Funds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=aiJYV2b24sMw

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- The largest equity-market decline since February is failing to spur selling by the biggest U.S. money managers, who say losses will prove temporary as gains in earnings make stocks too cheap to pass up.

Greece and Portugal’s credit downgrades yesterday are no reason to doubt forecasts for profit growth exceeding 50 percent at Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies through 2011, said Kenneth Fisher, who oversees about $39 billion as chairman of Fisher Investments. Almost $1 trillion of global equity value was erased on concern rising public debt will spur defaults, derailing the global economy, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“It’s a little bit like yelling fire in a movie theater -- it doesn’t mean the place is going to burn down,” said Fisher, who favors mining companies, computer makers and retailers, in an interview from Woodside, California. “The quality of earnings is exceptional. Earnings are coming in overwhelmingly above expectations. I don’t see any signs that will stop.”

Yeah, that's right... THIS Fisher is at it again (courtesy of MISH - thanks McHappy)

NO CREDIT! NO EXPERIENCE! (If you'd "clicked there", you'd likely have ended up THE FISHER KING)...

Others have different opinions...

“On the Greece file, the big concern now is contagion risks,” David Rosenberg said from Toronto. “The headlines were all about Greece, but the real action was in Portugal -- and it’s not pretty. So what we are talking about is heightened risk premiums at a time when a 17 VIX index was underscoring a very high level of confidence over the outlook for the economy.”

CV is very happy that Rosie was reading yesterday's WEREWOLF BLOG POST :-)

Look... I'm not here to make a call on the market direction (or timeframe), but it's mind boggling to hear someone like Fisher making a justification for staying invested in risky assets (through small sound bytes). Especially when his portrayal completely & utterly ignores MAJOR underlying forces that could (and probably will) derail his thesis (as they did in 2005)...

Or maybe there is a tooth fairy?

God knows I "feel" like my teeth are being pulled day in and day out when I hear this crap and other fairy business...

Maybe that's the whole point after all. Maybe the strategy by all the "Extend & Pretenders", the "Great Debating Societies", and the "Opinion Respecters" is to simply make me lose sufficient blood that I end up feeling happy and "unGRUMPY-fying" myself...

Then I can more properly align myself with the OTHER 7 dwarves (Happy, Sneez-ie, Dope-y, and all the other "xxxxx -ie's" on the list) and HUM A HAPPY TUNE...

I'll get to practicing that act by continuing my READING on articles like this which tell me why my PAYCHECK IS ABOUT TO GO UP...

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Extra/why-your-paycheck-might-be-going-up.aspx?gt1=33009

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish LONG day. Bearish harami confirmed. Closed below the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89. Midpoint now below 10 SMA (downtrend). Also closed below the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (uh oh better do something quick). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1217.18. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day. Ignored the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Closed above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 80.19.



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Pure unadulterated fear (or is GS p/o?). Back above the 61.8% fibo ext (support) and shot through the 50%, 38.3%, 14.6%, 0.0%. Closed above a previous retracement high. Midpoint back above 10 SMA. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 15.58.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Closed above the 50.0% fibo ext (blowing right through the 38.2%). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1152.30.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and failed (taking out previous low). Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece, Portugal, AIG all helping). Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and failed. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3441.



XHB
Bearish long day. Looks to have rejected the 261.8% fibo ext. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




XLE
Bearish long day. Closed below the 3rd parallel of the trendline (approx 60.26). Midpoint still above 10 SMA (for now). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint is equal to 10 SMA (trend unknown). Tested 21 SMA and passed. Tested the 100% fibo ext and failed (2x). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 40.14.