Sunday Evening Post - (CV version)

Some headlines that have caught my eye over the weekend (& a personal e-mail)...


FROM ZH


- "It is no secret that the last few weeks saw massive liquidations along all asset classes. The result was a huge outflow across almost all products: Loans, HY Bonds, Municipals, Commodities... all a typical reaction to broad based liquidations. However, note we said "almost" - one class that actually posted a $6.2 billion inflow was equities. Yet not is all as it seems: peeking underneath the hood indicates that the bulk of this inflow, or $10.3 billion, had to do with inflow into ETFs... or rather, just one ETF - the SPY, accounting for $10.1 billion. Did someone prop up the entire equity market last week by massively pushing capital into the most liquid equity proxy available?"




From KD


- "So Friday we had a "flash rally" in the last 20 minutes of the day - about 20 handles (S&P points) straight up.  Will there be an "investigation" to see why that happened?


Of course not, even though I have no evidence (or belief) that it was anything nefarious.  But boy, when the bids disappear (instead of offers), that's worthy of a Presidential Commission!


Uh huh."


(well - at least that explains the SPY inflows)... I guess...


From "DOWN UNDER"


http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/05/20/2905304.htm


---


And, of course, the "piece de la resistance"... (an e-mail that I received, PERSONALLY, from President Barack Obama)...


"Dear Maria" (damn Barry Dunham STILL thinks I'm named "Maria") - he must be looking at the tele-prompter and not looking at my face...


"On Thursday, the Senate passed historic Wall Street reform. This movement proved again that the strongest special interests, who for so long have called the shots in Washington, can be beat.


When opponents in Congress tried to block the legislation altogether, you stood up -- and they backed down. When the lobbyists pushed for loopholes and exemptions just before a final vote, you did not relent -- and we fought them off.


Your support brought us to this day -- and, because of that, we're poised to implement sensible reforms that will provide a stronger foundation for economic growth.


Now, the House and Senate must iron out their differences before I can sign it into law. But the financial industry will not give up. They have already spent more than $1 million per member of Congress, lobbying on this issue. And in the coming days, they will go all in. This is their last shot to stall, weaken, or kill reform, and they are not accustomed to losing.


But this movement has you -- and together, we have beaten the special interests before.


Please donate $5 or more today to help counter the special interests' attacks and get strong Wall Street reform to my desk.


Every American has a stake in this bill.


If you have ever been treated unfairly by a credit card company, this reform works for you -- never again will Americans be duped by fine print or hidden fees.


If you ever try to take out a home loan or student loan, this reform works for you -- putting an end to predatory and deceptive lending practices.


And, if you or your small business relies on credit from community banks that are being punished for playing by the rules while their competitors do not, this reform works for you -- reining in the big banks and making sure all our lenders are subject to tough oversight.


These reforms would put in place the strongest consumer financial protections in history. And, by helping safeguard our economy from recklessness on Wall Street, it would ensure that a crisis like the one that caused this recession never happens again.


This is not a zero-sum game where Wall Street loses and Main Street wins. As we have learned, in today's economy, we are all connected. When the economy prospers, we all win. Senators of both parties recognize that fact, and that is why lawmakers stood up to the lobbyists and worked across the aisle to ensure that Wall Street reform passed.


But this fight is not yet over. And it is up to us to overcome this final test and pass reform into law. When we do, the power of this movement to make change in Washington -- despite the best efforts of the special interests -- will no longer be up for debate.


Please donate $5 or more today:


http://my.democrats.org/HistoricReform


Thank you,


President Barack Obama"


---


What do y'all think? Should I send him the $5 bucks? Should I "volunteer" for his 2012 re-election? (if I want a "Thank you Maria" note, I ought to)...


I know, I know... Too early to tell, RIGHT... (Which, to CV, kinds of puts into perspective what the hell people in 2008 must have been thinking)...


When it comes to AMERICANS & THINKING... Well, those are two words that don't often collide in the same sentence...

19 comments:

BinT said...

A real patriot would just change his name to Maria.

Maria.....
I once knew a girl named Mariaaaaaa....

There is even a pretty good song to go along with your new name...

CV said...

I'm probably going to be adding to this thread...

I'm waiting for some charts from I-Man...

Nic - I'd be happy to post any chart that's on your mind...

CV's take?

We're going down HARD next week... We'll probably bounce back (to create the next wave of DRAMA that, well, only DRAMA QUEENS who blog in their spare time, will find need to debate)...

How it shakes out at the moment is difficult (because from where I sit - ASIA isn't even open yet)...

My "figurative" guess is that if we don't just CAVE at the open, there's a chance for 1095-1097 (SPX) in the morning before a 'waterfall'...

At least LOWER than the February lows (but possibly much more)...

I'm expecting the BULK of the weakness, however, to happen on Tuesday...

Take heart though... The WAVE 2 of this more MINOR 3 will take us ABOVE Fridays close... PROBABLY...

call me ahab said...

hey man- why don't I get to post any charts- where's the respect-

Buy High, Sell Low

call me ahab said...

CV-

that clip is pretty damn funny

smedrick said...

what I like is when the market takes sweet jumps

AmenRa said...

This was posted over at pragcap: http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/05/20/2905304.htm
Quiz on European debt (comedy)

I-Man said...

New charts up Iya.

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/05/spx-spotlight.html

http://dreadcapital.blogspot.com/2010/05/dxy-spotlight.html

call me ahab said...

Ra-

CV posted that clip my man-

check out my 7:06

AmenRa said...

ahab

Oops. But it was so funny that it needed additional links. :o)

General Disarray said...

true that smedrick-

what I like is that Bernanke, Geithner and Obama have this Great Recession down cold-

slapping it around like a litte be-atch- in fact- they should name a movie after it-

"All the Right Moves"-

I am sure it will be a hit(-:!!!

BinT said...

Maria:

Won't you send another 5 bucks...no, wait, wrong message. Aha, here it is:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=alzOE3RedVcA

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew Forrest, whose Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. stake has declined by about $700 million since Australia proposed a mining profits tax three weeks ago, said the government is unwilling to compromise on the plan.

Forrest, Fortescue’s chief executive officer and biggest shareholder, criticized a proposal to tax as “super profits” returns that exceed the rate on long-term Australian government bonds. “They’ve said to us the 6 percent threshold is non- negotiable,” he said in an interview yesterday on the Australian Broadcasting Corp.’s Inside Business program. ...

...I think there are so many things wrong with this, I can't count them all. Perhaps we'll try it here. Why not?

AmenRa said...

BinT

I just don't see how that is legal in any way or form. I can see a mining company cutting back production to keep profits down but that will increase the price of whatever they're mining. Also what if they just move their headquarters to another country? Will they still have to pay? Will it still be taxed because it was mined in Australia?

Anonymous said...

Inflation dead as per Bloomberg:

Strippers Declare Inflation Dead in Zero-Coupon Bonds

Prashant

Anonymous said...

Curious to know what the forex guys here reckon of the writings of Jack Crooks (senior), I've enjoyed reading him for years, finding him a bit of an island of calm in a mad world (he's been a bit subscription-oriented in his letters of recent times but we all have to make a living).
Bertie

Anonymous said...

Also, further to Nic's EW question on the previous thread, a question/observation I have is that the inflation vs deflation debate has obviously raged for years (I signed on early to the deflation outlook as I felt there was a bit more intellectual rigor shown by its most visible proponents and I'm embarrassed to admit my pension fund has been in cash since early 2007) anyway I know there is no justice in this world but is it possible deflationists might be right but still end up being out of pocket!!

That would fly in the face of something Mauldin wrote (last year?) to the effect that the single biggest factor in future investment success would be correctly guessing the inflation/deflation outcome.

Bertie

Nic said...

Hi Bertie
I read Jack Crooks Black Swan. He called the US Dollar and Euro right all last year. I don't subscribe to the paid services but I enjoy his commentary.

My reason for asking about the EW counts is this. It is bothering me a bit that we didn't touch the magic 618 fib number on the S+P and while we did have very bullish sentiment and very low Vix numbers at the top I question whether it was enough of a sentiment extreme to put in a major top. My other concern is that the EU Govt's have clearly shown they will not let a nation default (for now) and EURUSD could go quite a bit higher from here and whilst the USD/stocks correlation has reversed from last year so the dollar now more approximately moves up and down with stocks I wonder if it returns whether the (temporary) removal of fear that the EU pulls us into a double dip might pull stocks up with EURUSD.
My view of FX this week is we are bottoming here and risk currencies are about to swing higher although I am pretty bullish yen still (which usually means lower stocks).
I have seen a couple of counts that put this top as the end of wave three and we have another up leg to come and I wondered what McF / CV / AndyT thought of that.

Anonymous said...

Nic,

One way to test that would be to look at the volume of the EUR denominated emini (sp500), I don't have, or can't find the proper information, but an uptick in volume may lend more information.

bob

Anonymous said...

Ha might've guessed you'd be awake Nic!
thanks for posting those insights! When I'm on holidays I love having no defined sleeping times, like you were saying last nite about your job, I guess its the dayjob that most of us have to sustain that ruins that concept. Maybe your gig isn't so bad after all. Bertie

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.