CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig lost])
2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 65-42-4
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +4
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$90)* (cv wins the "kissing your sister" trophy)
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2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 93-76-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +31
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+2,950)
Gameday/week writeup...
A note to all you "casual" viewers out there... By the time you get to the ARMY-NAVY game, if you haven't figured it out yet, you're basically at the end of the college football season... I've been to a couple ARMY-NAVY games, they're pretty cool... Lately, the "football" has been dominated by some pretty good NAVY teams, but this year ARMY should give then a better game... I'll be around in a week or so to do a special on the College Bowls (I don't really know why - because I'm against the bowl concept and would rather see a playoff system...
The ONLY Pick... (pick in BOLD CAPS)
ARMY (+7.5) vs. Navy - (0.5 units)
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WEEK 14 NFL PICKS
Full game write-ups & fantasy football notes will be posted throughout the day & before Sunday kickoff
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks
Line: Colts by 3.5
Indy 30 - Tennessee 28
CV took - COLTS for (1 unit) - ($110) - Incorrect
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EST)
Line: Jaguars by 4
A couple of notes before I get to some brief comments about the games...
So far, I'm 0-2 in my "picks" this week (one NFL game, and one NCAA game)... The Colts-Titans game I only put a unit on (which I'd explained in the threads last week)... And I took Army for a half unit... I'm going to tell you why I'm "happy" about where the results stand thus far...
One thing one needs to learn about handicapping is that you're NEVER going to get all games right... Even picking a 3 team parlay (against the spread) is tough to do... Vegas pays out 6-1 on a successful three team parlay... So if they were handing out 6-1 payouts on something that was so easy to do, they'd have been out of business a long time ago...
Mostly what I'm looking for as the "margin"... To stay slightly ahead of the public's perception on teams, and of course, their willingness to lay (or take points on that outcome)... By the 12th week in the season, the public has a solid impression on who they think is good, and who they think sucks... That is usually the VEGAS DREAM, because they can then set lines to favor THEMSELVES more than accurately represent the difference between the teams...
Such was the case with BOTH Indy/Ten, and Army/Navy... In the former case, people were throwing a lot of money at the idea that Peyton Manning is a magician, and Tennessee is currently in disarray and may fire their coach at the end of the year... They were all over Navy, because Army hasn't had a good team in almost a decade, and Navy had won 8 straight of these contests (often by a wide margin)...
To make a long story short... The Titans made Vegas very happy when they came in at the end of the game and covered the spread... The Colts were never really in danger of losing this game (and were surely happy with the win)... Trust me... None of them were crying that they didn't cover the point spread (unless Pete Rose was on their coaching staff)... Army actually gained more yards than Navy in the game, and save for a fumble at the goal line that changed a touchdown, into a play that was returned 97 yards the other way for a TD... The score would have been about equal...
In any case, start considering these general angles when going through the picks this week... It's a time of year to focus attention on the "line" itself, NOT the teams involved and their players or statistics... I'm breaking down "point spreads" here, as much as "X"'s & "O"'s... Keep that in mind... Also, keep in mind that you only want to "selectively" side with the public from now until the end of the year...
In Raiders - Jaguars... It is very difficult for a west coast team to come east and play in a 1:00 time slot... The Raiders got schellacked by Pittsburgh a few weeks ago doing the same thing... The only problem with this logic is that the Jaguars might be distracted themselves... They have to play Indy next week, and they often come in flat the week before & after playing their division rival... Since the public like the Jags to the tune of 62%... I'll take the RAIDERS for (0 units), and hope they shake the 1:00 East Coast curse...
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST)
Line: Steelers by 8.5
This is just way too many points to be laying to a division rival... Especially one that is banged up in the interior line, and just had a tough game for the division lead (on TV) a week ago... You have to forget about the Bengals crappy W/L record here, and hope they show up to play... I think they will because nobody wants to spend the whole winter feeling embarrassed about a loss to an arch foe... For those of you that don't know, one of the Steelers injuries was to their punter Daniel Sepulveda... Heinz Field is a tricky & sloppy field to play on with crazy wind patterns... Sepulveda was also the "holder" on the field goal unit (where the Steelers are also auditioning a new kicker)... 8.5 points is tough to cover when your QB has a broken foot, and every drive that you make into scoring position ends with you relying on a tandem that hasn't practiced together all year... Just saying... BENGALS for (1 unit)...
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (1:00 EST)
Line: Patriots by 3
Line: Patriots by 3
The whole world just saw the Patriots demolish the brazen Jets on MNF... So they're falling all over themselves to bet them here... Some forget that Soldier Field is a tough place to play (regardless of whether the Bears are good, or not)... This is a classic opportunity for the Patriots to suffer a letdown now that they're
considered to be clear favorites for Superbowl... The Bears are still in a fight to prove themselves... I'll take the BEARS for (1 unit)...
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)
Line: Bills by 1
Nobody really cares about this game unless they have Peyton Hillis or Stevie Johnson on their fantasy football team... The Bills are really "false favorites" here (getting the 3 point home field swagger)... I'm only thinking they can get it done because Jake Delhomme is back in at QB for the Browns and needs a few more picks to get into the INTERCEPTION/FUMBLE Hall of Fame... BILLS for (0 units)...
New York Football Giants at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)
Line: Giants by 3
Rumor has it that the roof has collapsed at the Minneapolis Metrodome, so this game will be rescheduled for Monday 7PM... Stay tuned...
Forget about the "Brett Favre will he or won't he" situation... My mind focuses on a couple of different things... First of all, that the Vikings are a talented team that's "out of it" (which can be dangerous in the NFL - especially if you're trying to impress a new coach for net year)... Second... that the Vikings demolished a flagging Giants team 44-7 last year... Probably the Giants want a little revenge for that... I think they may want that in "spirit", but the fact is, they're coming in without a few weapons... Lastly, you probably have to ask yourself WHO are really the playoff teams in the NFL among this list... Bears, Packers, Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, Eagles, Giants, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers... All the Rams, 49ers, & Seahawks have to worry about is EACH OTHER (and the other two drop away)... The Bucs have to keep winning because their division title hopes are gone... The Saints are making a move... Bears & Packers may BOTH make it (barring collapse)... And the Eagles have the inside track on the Giants at the moment...
Forget about the "Brett Favre will he or won't he" situation... My mind focuses on a couple of different things... First of all, that the Vikings are a talented team that's "out of it" (which can be dangerous in the NFL - especially if you're trying to impress a new coach for net year)... Second... that the Vikings demolished a flagging Giants team 44-7 last year... Probably the Giants want a little revenge for that... I think they may want that in "spirit", but the fact is, they're coming in without a few weapons... Lastly, you probably have to ask yourself WHO are really the playoff teams in the NFL among this list... Bears, Packers, Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, Eagles, Giants, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers... All the Rams, 49ers, & Seahawks have to worry about is EACH OTHER (and the other two drop away)... The Bucs have to keep winning because their division title hopes are gone... The Saints are making a move... Bears & Packers may BOTH make it (barring collapse)... And the Eagles have the inside track on the Giants at the moment...
If that was all confusing... Basically, this is "do or die" moment for Giants & Bucs (who play in Washington)... That's an "overrated" emotion, because if you find yourself there, this early in the season, you're probably not that good... I'll take the VIKINGS for (1 unit)...
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Packers by 6.5
A lot of the rest of my "picks" are going to be based on the philosophy I just gave you... The Packers are "sort" of must win territory, but here they find themselves in a spot to actually help their own cause (in the division)... They've already won 2 against the Vikings, and this is their chance to sweep the Lions... They lost a strange game to the Bears at thge beginning of the season, but will face them again in the finale... IOW - the Packers are not in "desperation mode" here, more in "take care of business" mode... Nobody ever said anything about covering 6.5 on the road against a division rival tho... It's hard to believe that Drew Stanton is going to be able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers putting points on the board... But since the public agrees with that logic to the tune of 82%, I'll take the LIONS for (0 units)...
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)
Line: Falcons by 7.5
There's NO REASON to take the Carolina Panthers for any reason whatsoever... There are a lot of reasons for taking the Atlanta Falcons... Which is why I'm going to do the opposite of logic and take the PANTHERS for (4 units)...
Tampa Bay Bucs at Washington Redskins (1:00 EST)
Line: Bucs by 1.5
When you think about it... This is the first chance the Redskins have to prove that they can be "men" without Albert Haynesworth... I'd keep that in mind... Especially facing a Buccaneers team that basically had their "division" hopes busted last week vs. the Falcons... The Bucs have been pretty easy to figure out this year... They can't beat teams with good records, and they handle the weaker teams... The redskins are probably closer to a "weaker" team, but they are also a veteran team... I'll take the REDSKINS for (1 unit)...
LATE GAMES
St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints (4:05 EST)
Line: Saints by 9
My biggest chagrin this year is that I've failed to capitalize on just blindly taking the Rams every week this year... They've covered the spread on 10 out of 12 occasions... They're the NFL version of "Just buy the fucking dip"... Problem is, there have hardly been any dips...
To my credit, I did identify the Rams as a "better than expected" team early on (and even bet with them on a few occasions - and have DEFINITELY avoided betting AGAINST them - where REAL $$ was concerned)... But I kept making them run the gauntlet... First I wanted to see Sam Bradford "keep it close" on the road... Then, I wanted to see the actually win on the road... Then, win AS FAVORITES on the road... All were accomplished... The only thing they've failed to do was to beat a quality team at home (they lost to the Falcons - but still played well)...
This is like that game, except it's on the road again against a Saints team that is starting to get it together... The only thing that make me hesitant to take the Saints here is the near double digit line, and the fact that the saints end the season with the Ravens, Falcons, & Bucs... They may not take this Rams team as serious as they should and fail to cover the spread... The Rams have benefitted this year by creating a lot of sacks... But with "quick release" Drew Brees, that advantage might be negated... It's not like they're trying to sack jason Campbell who all but needs to use his index finger to count all the route progressions as a play develops...
Since the public has caught on to the Rams (66%) as a sure thing (in the same way they've discovered that the price of gold can't go down)... I'll go ahead and lay the high points with the SAINTS for (0 units)... That also playes into a "feeling" I'm getting that the NFC West will come down to a 3 way tie between Rams, Seahawks, & 49ers at 8-8, or 7-9...
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 EST)
Line: 49ers by 5.5
See above write-up (on NFC West)... If that happens, then it follows that the "likely" result is that the 49ers beat the Seahawks here... But do they cover the pointspread? Who cares? Let's just say that since CV is siding with VEGAS on almost all of the 1:00 games... If those are "correct", then some give back will be needed... In that case, taking SEATTLE & the CHARGERS are the likely afternoon bets to side with the public on... I'll go with the SEAHAWKS for (0 units)... Unless I'm getting schellacked in the 1PM games...
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (4:15 EST)
Line: J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets by 5.5
Curiously, the news was this week that Tony Spagnolo (Dolphins head coach), allowed the players to come to New York (and, in fact, chartered a plane) A DAY EARLY, so they could... Get this... TAKE IN SOME BROADWAY SHOWS... WTF?????
OK..... All I know is... If your coach lets you do that... You'd better effin' suit up and play football on Sunday or your life is going to be sugar glazed hell for the rest of your sorry existence...
The Jets are coming off an embarassing loss on MNF to the Patriots... The public LOVES to bet these teams because they think that team will come out with fire and brimstone next time out... Sure, that's true... But if you're looking for that angle, wait until the next Jets-Pats matchupm in the Meadowlands next year... Thinking the Jets have anything to PROVE against the Dolphins would be akin to kicking your dog because your boss yelled at you... Actually, it was the Jets who EMBARASSED the Dolphins in South Beach (on Monday Night Football) earlier this year... I gotta think the Dolphins are MORE pissed (or, at least they will be after they get done with the Broadway Show)...
Teams who get blown out on MNF (Jets), don't have a very good record in covering spreads the next week... Just saying... I'll take the DOLPHINS for (5 units)...
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)
Line: Broncos by 4
As you can see, CV has all kinds of "angles" to football games (that go beyond "X"'s & "O"'s)... One such angle is to AVOID teams that are making a coaching substitution in the middle of the season... This is especially true when the coach is not fired prior to a bye week (meaning the team has little time to adjust to the new system)... Josh McDaniels (he of, I'll trade away my franchize QB Cutler, my All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Marshall, and I'll let Peyton Hillis get away and become an All-Pro in Cleveland because he was hitting on my wife fame)...
Alright, as soon as you cut through all my comedy, you "football saavy" types will remind me that Leslie Frazier (Vikings), and Jason Garrett (Cowboys) stepped into similar roles this year and have fared rather well... I'll grant you that, but I'll also remind you that both of them had long been considered "head coaches" in waiting... Frazier's name has been discussed for many years as a possible head coach and the only reason he hasn't gotten a job (until now) was because the NFL are a bunch of racists... Now that America has voted for a black POTUS (the most capable "policy & decision making" POTUS of all history)... The spotlight is on the NFL as being deficient in this category... Garrett, for his part, turned down the HC job of the Ravens, Dolphins, & other teams to stay in waiting for the Cowboys top job...
In any case, the situation in Denver is a little different... Furthermore, when Garrett was bumped up, the Cowboys were double digit dogs to the Giants on the road... No pressure there... Frazier managed to topple the Redskins & Bills (at home)... But both were hapless teams who matched up poorly...
Arizona might be just as hapless, but they're a team that's just two years removed from the Superbowl, and has won it's division for many years straight before falling on hard times this year... They've gotta be a little miffed that a team that's won 5 out of it's last 19 games, and fired their coach last Sunday is coming in to their house FAVORED by 4 points...
There's something called PRIDE in the NFL, (or at least there ought to be)... I'll take the CARDINALS for (3 units)...
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (4:15 EST)
Line: Chargers by 7
The Chargers are my "other" afternoon pick where I'm siding with the public... I forget the exact number, but Phil Rivers is like 16-1 in the month of December... The Chargers didn't show up to play last week against the Raiders, but I'm sorry, I'll revert to the previous trend thank you... So Phil Rivers loses ONE GAME in december and all of a sudden next week he's a bumbling idiot?
Speaking of bumbling idiots, Matt Cassel had to undergo an emergency appendectomy this past week (that's a note for all you FANTASY FOOTBALL owners - who should be required to undergo a LOBOTOMY if you had Matt Cassel on your team in the first place)... The Chiefs will be going with Brodie Croyle here... I expect the sack happy Chargers to attempt to give him a lobotomy all afternoon)... The Chiefs beat the Chargers in the first week of the season in a rowdy & rainy Arrowhead Stadium... The Chiefs failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game (relying on a punt return for a TD, a pick 6, and two end zone picks tossed by Phil Rivers in the RED ZONE)... Even so, the Bolts had a chance to win at the end of that game... I'll go with the CHARGERS here for (3 units)... It would be 5, except that I don't like laying a TD or more in division matchups... Rules, Rules, Rules...
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Philadelphia Dog Killers at Dallas Cowboys (8:25 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 3.5
Picks will be posted before kickoff
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (8:35 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
