Morning Audibles 5.21.10 - A "Cock & Bull" Story



Bloomberg (for Dummies)



May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Any investor who wants to gauge how serious the stock market’s retreat is need only know the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has fallen to within 6 points of its low on May 6, when panic selling prompted calls for reform.

Translation: We make up things like "fat fingers" because we too like to watch "Dancing With the Stars" and taking the time to get to the bottom of things would distract us from that.

Europe’s debt crisis has pushed the S&P 500 down 12 percent during the past month as concern grew that deficits in Greece, Spain and Portugal will unhinge the global economic recovery. Regulators have proposed six potential causes of the May 6 crash, including losses in exchange-traded funds and an unwillingness to match orders among some electronic traders.

Translation: if we can't blame it on fat fingers, we'll make sure you believe that the problem is caused by fiscally irresponsible little countries across the pond (even though our own policies are just as bad).

“As far as we know, it’s not a computer error today,” Jerome Dodson, who oversees $4 billion as president of Parnassus Investments in San Francisco, said of yesterday’s slump. “The May 6 flash crash was driven by technical troubles and didn’t reflect any fundamentals. It’s surprising that regular trading would take us down to the same levels as a technical glitch.”

Translation: "Fundamentals!" (pauses to clean coffee off of keyboard). If the stock market GOES UP, it's fundamentals, if it GOES DOWN it's a glitch. & "These are not the droids you are looking for".

The chart patterns show concern the U.S. economy may weaken after expanding during the past three quarters. Reports yesterday showed more Americans filed for jobless benefits in the week ended May 15 and the Conference Board’s index of U.S. leading economic indicators unexpectedly declined in April.

Translation: When Uncle Sugar runs out of money that was borrowed and you've yet to be taxed on, and that was used to artificially bring demand forward to make himself look good & to give his bankers friends betting cash, the charts start looking bad after awhile.

“If this begins to bleed into people’s psyches, then it can perpetuate a negative sentiment that could weigh not only further on the index, but begin to impact the real economy,” said Kevin Caron, a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Florham Park, New Jersey, which oversees about $90 billion.

Translation: People don't like it when their Treasury is looted.

U.S. stocks are valued at 19.4 times annual earnings from the past 10 years, according to inflation-adjusted data tracked by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller. That compares with the average of 16.4 since 1881.

Translation: I'm being "generous" with these so-called valuations. But you'll never hear that on TOUT-TV.

Birinyi Buys

While the stock selloff reflects reasonable concern that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will derail global growth, U.S. corporate earnings and favorable valuations will prevail, said Laszlo Birinyi, the founder of Birinyi Associates Inc. Profits for S&P 500 companies are forecast to increase 17 percent this year, pushing the index’s price to 13.2 times annual income, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“I am not of the view that we’re going to go into a 20 percent downdraft,” Birinyi said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We are buying to take advantage of this weakness.”

Translation: "I'm a tool"

Billionaire investor Kenneth Fisher also sees the equity plunge as a buying opportunity. The chairman of Fisher Investments Inc., who oversees about $35 billion in Woodside, California, said the U.S. economic recovery will outweigh the debt crisis in Europe.

Gross domestic product in the world’s biggest economy rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Consumer spending increased by the most in three years and business investment on new equipment advanced at a 13 percent pace. The economy will grow 3.2 percent to 3.7 percent this year, the Federal Reserve said on May 19.

“If GDP is rising, you don’t have a recession,” said Fisher. “We’re getting the stock market correction that begins to let us put everything behind us and move on to the next leg. This is a bull market.”

Translation: "I'm an even bigger tool than Birinyi. Anybody that followed my real estate advice back in 2005 is broke & destitute. But I still flap my gums whenever I get a chance"



All kidding aside, Last night I was asked my views on some levels that we could hit... Frankly, there are too many crosscurrents at play here, but I'll toss out a few levels to give it some perspective.

1070 - TD&ZH are warning that there's a huge "size wall" there... If it gets taken out in the cash, watch out below...

1065 - Flash crash LOW PRINT (seems irrelevant now - futures pointing near there)

1050 - The Chicago pits seem to love that number

1044 - The February low (with the "forces that be" may prove to be an irrelevant number as well)

1042 - The .1457 FIBO extension from 1219.80... EW'ers & fibo freaks (like me) are keen to this number

1000 - purely psycological

972 - A number CV tossed out during the January correction but was never hit...

956 - That was the summer '09 previous high (may act as somewhat of a H&S)...

932 - (a .2357 fibo extension from 1219.80)... This would mean the market has done more than a 20% correction... Many pundits would say that we're now in "BEAR MARKET" territiory (as if we were ACTUALLY in a bull)... Whatever...

Or, if you wish, I could go find Birinyi, Fisher, or AJC for you... In the end, they'll probably be right... Obama is probably on the phone right now asking how many trillion it will cost to buy back 2,000 DOW points...


282 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 282   Newer›   Newest»
BinT said...

Hmmmmm....

Talk about market manipulation.

....I wait 24 hours and still no Joey....

AmenRa said...

S&P futures down more than 1%. Run Forrest Run!

call me ahab said...

great post CV-

got a chuckle out of me

Nic said...

Good post CV. “As far as we know, it’s not a computer error today,”

CV said...

@Nic

"I keep checking in waiting for CV's "four horseman of the apocalypse" post or something similar. Gotta luv opex but he is probably keeping his powder dry for P3."

---

No - I've decided that during P3 I'm just going to "constantly" rain quotes from people who have described this as a "typical recovery"

It's going to be like Dr. Chilton putting the Evangelistic TV in front of Hannibal Lechters cell at full volume...

Nic said...

SILVER breaking channel support McF

BinT said...

Ben,

Thanks. That's what I figured. That is me too. I could share some anecdotal tales from the area, but most even now have aggression in a time of weakness as the theme. Some pretty sad stories though.

Nic said...

CAD retail sales numbers just in
Core Retail Sales m/m was 1.7% vs 0.5%
and
Retail Sales m/m +2.1% vs 0.2%

Bubblicious!!

bob said...

Great post CV.

Here is a take on some behind the scenes action. Bruce used to be a currency trader.

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2010/05/swiss-did-it.html

McFearless said...

you can get a good look at a butcher by sticking your head up a bulls ass....er no wait.

bulls ass, that's a good one


Tommy Boy

McFearless said...

Bruce,

wrote some more on the bottom thread

BinT said...

I never pay attention to Birinyi. I keep wanting him to hark up that goober he has in his throat so I can understand him...

bob said...

That chicken-

I really love that saying. It really gets the point of futility across.

Nic said...

Bob read this re CHF:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/21/239446/the-swiss-franc-defence-cost-a-billion-a-day-in-april/

McFearless said...

Nic,

silver, yes! I'm still holding the short from a few days ago, I'll watch today and will likely sell into the weekend.

I'm gonna trade to the other Buffett today....Jimmy, the cool one.

Too nice of a day...I need some Boat Drinks.

BinT said...

Ben,

Yes. That is advice I figured you'd have. My partner whose wife was doing so well after March with their investments...she got weary of keeping track of them..so they turned everything, once again, over to an investment advisor in Nashville...yep, you guessed it..we talked yesterday.....

mcHAPPY said...

Great post, CV.

If we are to be extremely bearish, I am looking for 920 which would be 2.618 the length of wave 1 (1148-1072) taken off the top of wave 2 (1119). But there are obviously a few levels between now and them and they are quite close to your's above. If this plays out then sometime in the next 2 weeks I will be looking for anywhere between 930 and 795.

McFearless said...

Laz Low's fav stock going into 08 was AIG.

I always think of Liars Poker when I hear about that dude, along with how much nonsense I think he spews.

BinT said...

Sweden is the new safe haven?

Anonymous said...

However, Copper still holding on somehow.

Prashant

BinT said...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7746915/Perfect-storm-as-market-tremors-hit-China-Europe-and-the-US.html

'Perfect storm' as market tremors hit China, Europe and the US

Capitulation fever has swept global markets on triple fears of faltering recovery in the US, Chinese credit curbs and Europe's intractable escalating debt crisis.

"It is the perfect storm," said Andrew Roberts, credit strategist at RBS. "People have been too complacent about risky assets. This is a global deflation scare and people need to get ready for falls in US and European bond yields to 2pc."

...2 per cent? On the 10 year? Pretty aggressive forecast...

call me ahab said...

Germany's lower and upper houses approved the aid package-

I wonder if the luster has finally worn off "bailout" mania-

in the end- it's just slopping debt around

Mannwich said...

LOL cv. Classic post. Thanks for the laugh this morning.

bob said...

Do you think that Norway maybe needed some EUR?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=a3bVFkY13k1s

BinT said...

"Karl Otto Pöhl, ex-head of the Bundesbank, told Der Spiegel that the bail-out offers no help to Greece. The country can never repay its debts and needs "partial" forgiveness. "This was about was about protecting German banks, especially the French banks, from debt write-offs," he said."


....Ok....but what about Portugal? Iceland? Ireland? Spain? and etc.....partial write offs of everything?

What about taxes? What happens to taxpayers with all this complex cipherin'???

Mannwich said...

What's most galling to me is that this shouldn't be a "surprise" or "unexpected" by anyone with a half a brain at this point. Once again, many out there warned about this VERY thing happening. WTF?!?

CV said...

@McF (8:49)

Funny (Ironic)... I had a copy of "Liars Poker" in the image cache I was sifting through...

Turns out I didn't need it... I'm sure I'll use it some day...

AmenRa said...

So looks like I'll have to wait for the rally after the break of the 5/6/10 lows to get short. Sweet.

CV said...

I'm not really sure of what I'm hoping for this morning when the market opens...

- All out carnage
- Or a kick save (to short)

I'm in a quandry...

mcHAPPY said...

Very glad I jumped back in on TZA.

CV said...

If anybody missed...

Robert Prechter was on TECH TICKER yesterday...

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/dow-slumps-3.6-%22we-are-on-schedule-for-a-very-very-long-bear-market%22-prechter-says-492864.html?tickers=%5EDJI,%5EGSPC,%5EIXIC,%5ERUT,%5EVIX,IWN,TLT&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode

CV said...

@BinT

CV made a call for a "1" handle on the 10y eventually...

Mannwich said...

Am very wary of adding any shorts here. Short-covering rally has to be coming soon. Will sit in TLT and my little ZSL holding, although I may dump the latter soon.

CV said...

It's somewhere around here mixed in with my Joey Heatherton fotos...

CV said...

@Manny

Just keep in mind one thing... VERY SIMPLE

We're in "sell rips" territory (NOT "buy dips")...

It's best to align your thinking that way...

Mannwich said...

Oh definitely, cv. That's why part of me is rooting for a little rally here. I'm not buying this dip right here. Still gotta be patient. I want a crack at the true lows when they happen.

CV said...

@Manny

The TRUE LOWS still may not occur for another two years...

mcHAPPY said...

Manny,

If you look from 1076 to 1095 yesterday on the 10 min candles, you can see a very clear A-B-C.

On the RUT, you can see it as well and we meet the minimum .382 retracement by about 1.5 points.

Yesterday I think Ben or CV (Can't remember who, sorry!) said he does not know what a 3rd of a third looks like - if the count is correct, today we are all about to find out.

I'm finding on the wave 2 retracements lately we are barely passing .382 and WHOOOSH. This is making the dip buyer's nervous because they of course think it is only a matter of time before we surpass 1220 (and they are correct it is just that the time will be more like 2025) and the buy and holders are getting more and more nervous with each slide farther down.

Mannwich said...

@cv: I can wait. ;-)

In the meantime, I'll just play small ball here and there. Going for home runs was nearly lethal last year.

Anonymous said...

@CV, your C is 3.54 now. Also look at NBG?

So are you buying?

karen said...

morning! perfect post, CV.. : ) i'm dying fro crude to test that 65-64 level again today.. would def sell my dto.

Mannwich said...

DOW 10K hats back in the closet, Maria!

Mannwich said...

Holy TLT. Off and running right out of the gate.

mcHAPPY said...

New stops 648.36 on the RUT and 1084.07 on S&P.

CV said...

@Anon

I saw that... Not buying yet...

THERE's more FEAR to come...

CV said...

Other banks are green tho...

Circling the wagons...

McFearless said...

"“If GDP is rising, you don’t have a recession,”

pardon my language here but what a fucking idiot. When it comes to stocks whether or not we are technically "in recession" is completely irrelevant.

@McHappy,

I'm pretty sure I know what a 3 of 3 looks like ;o)

McFearless said...

I'm really hoping we get a sharp bounce sometime today where I can find some puts. I can see various comments that the buy the dip mentality has fully sunk in, as evidenced by the decent rise in AAII bullish sentiment this week.

We are certainly oversold, and in P3, we just stay that way.

I still see several analysts that I respect calling for one more big push to the highs or new highs before a plunge so I'm keeping it in the back of my mind.

AmenRa said...

CV

First 5 1-min candles red. Uh oh. Sell'em Lloyd.

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

Kinda like this?

Mannwich said...

@ben: It shows you just how disconnected from the real world some of these investment insiders are. Ken Fisher is the ultimate tool.

mcHAPPY said...

Once this gap is filled, look out?

karen said...

if we go green i will not believe my eyes..

I-Man said...

Watching 1073 and 1077 for possible morning resistance...

CV said...

I'm posting this (from Amen yesterday) as it may become relevant today...

For tomorrow:
5/20/10 close 1071.59

fibo - up - down
.01459 - 1087.22 - 1055.96
.0236 - 1096.88 - 1046.30
.0382 - 1112.52 - 1030.66

I-Man said...

If those hold, then we will tag that 1044 today...

CV said...

@Amen

We hit 1055.9 on that last red candle (see 9:55)

CV said...

I think if we hit 1087, I'm going to get short as hell...

AmenRa said...

You just knew they were going to defend the 5/6 low and its trendline.

mcHAPPY said...

@I

From EW principles if this really is a third of third in P3 I would be expecting at minimum today or Monday 996 as this would be the 1.618 the length of wave 1 (1148-1072). Obviously there will be some major resistance and crazy rallies along the way.

I-Man said...

If my JV timing analysis skills are beginning to bear fruit, then something big is going to happen around 11:15 EST.

If it doesnt, then forget I ever said that.

McFearless said...

and btw, some of these guys need to take a look at the GDP in japan over the last 20 years. It's amazing the things people say that are so widely accepted, and so easily disproved.

BinT said...

"It's somewhere around here mixed in with my Joey Heatherton fotos..."


....Well, if we were looking for fotos, if you have any Daisy Duke back in her heyday (not today, mind you..) then I think they might be appropriate for headlining the weekend's topic...

CV said...

@I-Man

LOL

CV said...

@BinT

The "DUKES" are out of a commission today...

They're in the pits yelling SELL SELL!

CV said...

@Amen

1081 would be about a .009 from 1071.59

bob said...

CV,

Here is a screen shot I took a while ago, I thought it was pretty funny, maybe you can use it.

http://img207.imageshack.us/img207/7066/refusaltostop.jpg

I-Man said...

Someones really putting in some work here... cant believe it pushed through that 1077 so soon.

I-Man said...

I dont trust it... not one bit.

There is more liquidation behind curtain number 3.

AmenRa said...

CV

1081.23 to be exact. I see it stopped just short...so far.

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Can't dump at the lows. Must dump at a higher price. Watching each other to see who will be the first to blink.

mcHAPPY said...

There was a huge gap to fill on the open... patience. I am watching 1084.07 and 645.07.

McFearless said...

Alright, i must have missed it yesterday...

who is Joey heatherton?

I-Man said...

x2

I-Man said...

Yeah... who gives a shit about Joey Harrington anyway???

BinT said...

Ben,

You wound me!

mcHAPPY said...

I saw 645.04 on the RUT but not 645.07 - not yet anyway.

McFearless said...

Alright, I'll have to do a search

I-Man said...

Ra, I actually have a theory about that, and why we havent seen a massive squeeze that everyone keeps anticipating at each new low...

Now, granted, almost 20 SPX handles in 45min certainly qualifies as a squeeze, but not of the mega-rip-your-fucking-face-off variety, like we saw at times last year.

That tells me that there is more selling behind this, just waiting to be unleashed.

karen said...

Ben, thank you, thank you.. i gather she is a girl that was popular years ago? I should wiki her but i just let it go over my head.. actually thot it was a professional athlete.. basketball player..

I posted a great link last night to Lost auditions for you.. not sure if you saw it but i can get it again.. everyone looks so YOUNG!

Mannwich said...

I may be wrong, but this is looking dire for the bulls. That's all they could muster? I know, I know, the day's far from over.

McFearless said...

I-man...I'd like to hear your theory...I think TRIN is telling us there will be no short squeeze, at least not yet, bulls are using about 2x as much energy to get the same result as sellers...

McFearless said...

Karen,

Yeah, I saw the link. That was cool thanks. How about everyone trying out for the part of Sawyer? Matthew Fox was funny as Sawyer, after watching that they did a great job casting everyone.

Sunday night is going to be a lot of fun, in case you missed that's when the final episode is on.

I-Man said...

Thats funny Ben, because I was going to come to you next before I went any further with the idea...

I think it has to do with the overall character of what cycle/wave we are in at the moment, ie: whether we are in the elliotician's P3...

My problem with the overarching P3 scenario as I've heard it described here is that it auto assumes new and catastrophic lows...

I'm just not convinced of that scenario yet, but I would like to see you share some of the psychological/socionomic aspects of a Primary 3... to see if any of that is being reflected in the mkt psychology we've witnessed this month.

McFearless said...

Manny,

you are right, bulls are having to put in a ton of effort to get these choppy three wave bounces...we are going down in what looks like 5's and up in 3's.

Very bearish.

CV said...

I'm kind of half expecting to see an A-B-C here actually go to 1087...

Then release the kracken...

McFearless said...

Anecdotal, just got off the phone that works at BlackRock.

she tells me it's an animal house there right now, not so much for them, but client calls are through the roof, she tells me without getting specific that there is a major shift happening right now as people look to de-risk.

I-Man said...

Basically, my impression is that we are in the midst of a major psychological shift in how market participants view the market...

And that, a la Marty's latest piece on May 6th, capital is confused right now.

The confusion to me is indicative of a psychological shift.

I-Man said...

Oh, for anecdote, got my first full "sell everything unsol and send out the $ and close the acct" order this morning...

Only had one of those so far this year, and it was in late Feb.

CV said...

The BID/ASK on the June 93 SPY is 2.05/2.10

And someone bought 10,000 contracts this morning...

Probably Birinyi...

CV said...

@I-Man

LOL - That client must read this blog...

CV said...

They couldn't be reading TWSWB because he'd just be telling them that this is a TYPICAL RECOVERY...

(and fishing for ideas on an open thread on how to trade his 100% cash position)...

AmenRa said...

EURJPY up
AUDJPY up
TRIN ≤0.60

Still too bullish for me to go short. Waiting for fibo levels.

I-Man said...

One could probably do a "probe" with a short position here at 1076...

That level should be good for at least a temporary smackdown.

CV said...

@I-Man

Go ahead & take one for the team...

Let's get this ball rollin'

I-Man said...

Then you add to it on a breach of 1067.

I-Man said...

Wish I could homeboy...

I'm not trading again until I'm doing it professionally in the emini's... and not quite there yet, but close...

McFearless said...

I-man,

I'll work up some Wave 3 personality stuff this weekend and share. We have to keep in mind that the degree of this wave 3 is huge, we are talking supercycle count here.

Also important to keep in mind that we have created over several decades the largest credit expansion ever. See my avatar picture...as one example.

A couple thoughts from pages 90-91 of CTC, which are of a more fundamental perspective:

A trend of credit expansion has two components: the general willingness to lend and borrow and the general ability of borrowers to pay interest and principal. These components depend respectively upon (1) the trend fo people's confidence, i.e., whether both creditors and debtors think that debtors will be able to pay, and (2) the trend of production, which makes it either easier or harder in actuality for debtors to pay. So long as confidence and production increase, the supply of credit tends to expand. the expansion of credit ends when the desire or ability to sustain the trend can no longer be maintained. As confidence and production decrease, the supply of credit contracts.

The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot be overstated. When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation..........


The structural aspect of deflation and depression is also crucial (me: keep in mind our economy has trend WEAKER for several decades now while credit massively expanded) The ability of the financial system to sustain increasing levels of credit rests upon a vibrant economy. At some point, a rising debt level requires so much energy to sustain, in terms of meeting interest payments, monitoring credit ratings, chasing delinquent borrowers and writing off bad loans - that it slows overall economic performance. A high-debt situation becomes unsustainable when the rate of economic growth falls beneat the prevailing rate of interest on money owed and creditors refuse to udnerwrite the interest payments with more credit.

I-Man said...

2 Scenario's I see playing out on the 1min SPX charts:

A bounce off yesterday's close, now, that sets up a double top at 1082ish...

Or, a breakdown at 1068, setting up a test of the 1044 takuri low.


Pick your poison.

McFearless said...

Last night someone mentioned something along the lines of with money coming out of x I'd think it will then flow into y.

this is that idea that money has to go somewhere, it moves from stocks to bonds to cash, never ever goes away. each buyer has a seller and money just changes hands.

Very very dangerous assumption here, while this is true of the "money"...it is not true when discussing the VALUES, which changed all the way up. Prices aren't rising because of the buying itself, they rise because people agree they should, the buyer and the seller, it only takes one seller and one buyer to do the same on the way down and everyone else who holds whatever it is being agreed to at a lower prices loses and all they had to do was nothing. In a major panic there would be prices at which assets will not trade at all and they move in huge increments from one trade to the next. We just saw this happen on a small scale.

A similar dynamic is at work with the creation of credit, as well as the destruction of credit.

McFearless said...

C,

thanks for the RP tech ticker link. I like Aaron Task, he does a good job on there.

"there will be really sharp rallies along the way...to keep people interested...keep them thinking there is a bottom"

this is that buy the dip mentality, it'll happen all the way down until the middle of wave 3 of Primary 3....when that bad boy breaks then the panic will take hold.

CV said...

@McF

Or - Newtons 3 Laws of motion...

CV said...

@McF

Yeah, I wasn't sure you got a chance to catch that...

You were too busy with LOST :-)

CV said...

BTW...

What does "LOST" say about socioeconomics?

In about two decades will a show called FOUND come on?

McFearless said...

well, even a basic chart makes it look like a triangle is forming....

AmenRa said...

233SMA is 1079.26. Daily candle forming bullish thrusting (aka failure to rally). Fibo .00557 is 1077.56. Trin still around 0.6.

McFearless said...

I just put S&P shorts on, no stop but I have my mental "uncle point"

I-Man said...

Fist bump, McF.

CV said...

@Amen

and don't forget 1078 is 1.618 from 666

I-Man said...

I had already forgotten that shizz, CV...

Kinda puts a damper on the double top at 1082 scenario...

karen said...

i could do some sds at 1086.. add again at 1105..

I-Man said...

Hmm... maybe not.

mcHAPPY said...

If bulls do not push though, look out below.

mcHAPPY said...

Sorry.... push THROUGH here....

McFearless said...

hmmm, a C wave here?

mcHAPPY said...

Looks like they did.

McFearless said...

Karen,

that's what I was thinking just a little dif. numbers

bob said...

MCF,

I made that comment, and while I didn't explain it then I will now. I understand the credit argument you are making, my point was more about capital flight.

The amount of capital that is fleeing the EU right now is massive, IMO. That capital is heading this way, and for the purposes of this argument is new credit for the US$. Who is that credit being extended to?

I-Man said...

1086 is the next resistance level from I perch

AmenRa said...

FTSE now has had a 3rd lower weekly close and is trending down on the weekly 3LB. It also has close below its monthly 3LB reversal price (still have one week to go).

72bat said...

conditional buy order for sds executed at spx 1084

McFearless said...

bob,

ok, I see what you were saying now. I don't know the answer, we'll know in a few months though. I'd like to think it will result in no credit extension...but we'll see.

bob said...

MCF,

Just found it, from E on the other site-

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aXOzfuYf4o1g

"Foreign bank borrowing of dollars from their U.S. offices increased almost 50 percent to $353.3 billion in the three months ended May 5, according to Fed data tracked by Nomura Holdings Inc. The jump is the largest quarterly percentage rise since 2007. "

I-Man said...

Just some support levels to watch for the rest of the day:

1080.5 trendline support off this mornings low (rising)

1078 phi number off 666 low

1077 55ema on 1min

1071 (falling) broken downtrend off this mornings pivot high

1065 flashcrash low

1059 (falling) broken downtrend off this mornings pivot high

Anonymous said...

swhc bouncing nicely off of $4.00

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

I am thinking C wave as well.

Scary thought (IF WE DON"T BREAK 1095):

Wave 1 = 1095.09-1055.90= 39.19

.618 retracement = 1080.12

If we do not pass 1095.09 = OMG on the fall.

Ben,

In EW would it be possible to have the futures over night to provide a 4th wave? I know futures were green at some point.

CV said...

Credit being extended to whom?

Why, the US government, of course... To fund all sorts of "productive" things like healthcare & bailouts...

karen said...

i hate the dow.. just had to get that out there. hate the nasdaq, too!

McFearless said...

I keep seeing charts that mark the low the other day as wave 5 down of larger wave 1. I dont' agree at all, if you are going to count it as impulsive and state it could be a P3 that makes no sense to me that wave 5 wouldn't end beyond wave 3. so I don't like that count at all.

karen said...

wow.. faz down at 15.30.. so tempting! smn and srs, too!

karen said...

i have a thing for srs.. (and pizza.. obviously if you could see how quickly i just devoured that piece!)

AmenRa said...

Trin approaching 0.3. NYSE getting overbought. Bought some SPX Puts.

Mannwich said...

There's our rally. Will it last?

Mannwich said...

Even the day...

Nic said...

s q u e e z e ... pop

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I prefer to count the cash...I'll only reference the futures counts if the count on cash isn't clear.

Bob,

above, I meant to say credit expansion,...not extension. My view is that it makes perfect sense banks freak out about the Euro and what do they do? Well, move the the sickest currency of them all of course.

I-Man said...

Dude... this next one lower is going to be a doozy...

McFearless said...

I think so 2. if not, I give back some of the gains from the Q short....which I can live with.

I-Man said...

I think too many folks had orders set with that 1078 in mind...

karen said...

i'm only trying for srs at the moment.. faz under 15 or i won't touch it.

Nic said...

Europe closes positive ...

I-Man said...

AUD looking a little like everest on the 5min...

I-Man said...

I-Man is going out to get a bagel, dont have too much fun while I'm gone...

McFearless said...

It looks like it’ll take more than a trillion dollars to bring buyers back to the stock market. European markets continue to fall Friday despite Germany’s approval of the massive euro zone bailout. The major European indexes are each falling 2% in intraday trading.

The euro, however, is getting a slight boost. It's off its recent four-year lows and is now trading for more than $1.25. Still, sentiment remains negative on the future of the euro.

Usually a contrarian, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International isn’t so inclined when it comes to the euro. Near term, the euro might rebound, but he says it’s entirely possible the European Union will break up in the next 10 years.

Of course, the euro’s recent loss has been the dollar’s gain. Prechter predicted a strong move in the dollar on Tech Ticker over a year ago. “The dollar appeared to be on the verge of disintegrating last November,” he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “I thought that was one of the best contrary opportunities I’ve ever seen.'

Prechter is less enthusiastic now that everyone is piling into the dollar. “The dollar is no longer a bargain,” he says. “I don’t think the bull market is over but I think the best of it for the time being is over.”

Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn’t such a good buy either, according to the veteran market watcher. “It’s losing upside momentum at the same time more people are getting more enamored with it,” he notes.

Contrary to popular belief, “gold tends to rise when the economy is expanding not when it’s in recession,” according to Prechter’s research. And, as we’ll discuss in more detail in another clip, Prechter thinks deflation and economic depression are a foregone conclusion.

I-Man said...

Great...

Just overheard a few brokers saying "there is NO WAY we are going to close positive today..."

Ruh-roh.

1110.

;)

McFearless said...

one more push higher here?

CV said...

@I-Man

Tell me again what exactly IS IT that these guys get paid for?

Mannwich said...

@I: Contrary indicator? ;-)

I-Man said...

No comment.

Nic said...

Volatility has died
http://twitpic.com/1pps1x

McFearless said...

Nic,

Calm before the storm?

i could argue a 5-3-5 corrective there.

CV said...

@Nic

It's only natural... After all... We're in a TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY recovery...

karen said...

LB sighting at MM..

CV said...

@Amen

Thus far, those 5 red candles to start the day aren't getting much respect...

AmenRa said...

CV

So I've noticed. But it's still early.

mcHAPPY said...

If 1095.09 is broken, it would appear something ended at 1055.90 because 1095.09 is higher than any of the lows.

As I type this it would appear something has given way. A break of 1080.67 could possibly end the idea of another step up to re-test 1095.09.

Nic said...

Karen
Has someone offended LB? I miss his wisdom and his ass here

I-Man said...

If ever there was a way to bring him back...

karen said...

Nic, i think LB likes to play games... and he is quite a tricker.

AmenRa said...

VIX back above 40...

karen said...

maybe if we all talk about how much we miss his clever tongue..

I-Man said...

CV, to answer your query at 12:21...

Today, apparently, they are getting paid to play pacman on the google homepage...

Insert Coin.

CV said...

@Nic

I heard LB is buying some billboard space...

One of those ones just like the one that has George W. Bush on it that says "Miss me Yet?"

:-)

DL said...

Leftback's ass?

Leftback's tongue?

Nic said...

Well I miss him A LOT !!!!
Come back LB :)

I-Man said...

Sheeeee...

I might have to retire for a week also, to see how you all really feel about the I...

Nic said...

I <3 all of you

karen said...

Nic, I know.. you are a treasure and these fellows are hilarious! My days wouldn't be half as fun or exciting without all of you! There are no bad days here... except when DL is right and I am wrong : )

I-Man said...

Waterfall... waterfall... waterfall...

Chant it.

I-Man said...

Awww...

Group hug... yall are making me cry.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:23

But that is such a rare occurrence.

CV said...

CV will vehemently attempt to avoid sounding like Rush Limbaugh here yet say...

"Ditto"

CV said...

Any bets on EUR-USD right about here...

It's 'decision time' on that reverse H&S...

Cv's views?

Rally ends... Why? Because I just read a headline from somewhere on the blog that said...

"DOW SOARS ON GERMANY APPROVAL OF $1 TRILLION BAILOUT"...

GIB

Nic said...

I say EURUSD to 127 or 127.50 but prolly not today.

I-Man said...

Take a look at that 2hr EURUSD chart...

Looks a bit spooky, no?

I-Man said...

Just looked at a EURAUD chart in the daily timeframe for the first time...

Speechless.

CV said...

@Nic

I still think there's another shoe to drop...

I'll concede the 1.27... But I get the feeling that there will be something over the weekend that pounds it back down to 1.21 (or near), first...

I'm still saying that the markets will make the LOWS next Tuesday (on this "correction")...

I-Man said...

AUDJPY looks like THE chart...

I-Man said...

Someone just gunned the EUR hard.

CV said...

Just a thought...

All of those people who got their trades CANCELLED on he "flash crash"...

I wonder what they're thinking now?

Mannwich said...

@cv: They may be thinking of throwing in the towel on this bullshit.

karen said...

CV @ 1:50, too much! hadn't thot of that!

I-Man said...

So are you seeing yen selling across the board going into the close, Nic?

CV said...

Actually, I pretty much know what they're thinking...

They're thinking "WTF?"

I-Man said...

Gotta love cnbc's take:

"After the Plunge: Investors Use Correction as an Excuse to Buy
The week's vicious stock market slump set up the perfect buying opportunity for investors, who finally received their long-awaited market correction."


Buy em up...

DL said...

Seems to me that if they're going to suspend trading, they should use a decline in an index as the criterion, rather than the decline in an individual stock.

Otherwise, it's just too much micromanaging.

Nic said...

MrTopStep:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMpKuR17qZ8

I-Man said...

Too much common sense involved in that for them to think of it, DL.

I-Man said...

All the EUR crosses are going buck except EUR/AUD and EUR/GBP...

Hmmm....

I-Man said...

Love that Mr Topstep, but damn glad I dont work in that pit.

Nic said...

I-Man I am not really seeing yen selling. It's pretty illiquid chop.

I-Man said...

Yeah, I had the 1min charts on and thought I had the 15min...

AmenRa said...

Turning into a repeat of yesterday (5 min charts). Who draws first?

McFearless said...

the move up looks like 3 waves, as all the moves up have since the high....

spoonman said...

ahhh, the age old question - who wants to be short into the weekend? Not me.

CV said...

@Amen

The RETRACE from todays low back to 1110 (the .09 from 1219.80) stopped exactly at .618...

karen said...

i seriously have no qualms about holding shorts over the weekend..

CV said...

78.6 would be 1097

Nic said...

Volatility sonar report:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Urk4bKm2DOk

DL said...

Spoonman @ 2:35

But given a choice between long or short, which is it?

(Cash is for wussies).

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