AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"Just got paid, it's Friday Night. The party is jumpin' and we're feelin' right."

Creditcane™: Tick tock. Tick tock. June 30th approaches.

SPX
Bearish long day (was yesterday a hanging man?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144) & SMA(21). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 76.4% retrace (1277.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1265.33). QE2infinity. The games people try to play.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(89). Held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Bullish long day (further confirming hammer & double bottom). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Escaped back to the "fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Failed SMA(55). Failed its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failing its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).



JNK
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Failed its 38.2% retrace (39.48). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (28.47). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 30.99).



WTI
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Failing its 85.4% retrace (93.07). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 97.71).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish long day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 76.4% retrace (47.07). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 47.73).



HYG/LQD
Bearish engulfing day. No test of 0.0% retrace (0.7899). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed its 23.6% retrace (0.8050). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7961).



EURCHF
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.1809). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2010).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.24.11

EURCHF (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1.2036
rev= 1.3117; mid= 1.2577

It still looks like those deposits in eurozone banks are running to Swiss banks. I guess they don't believe things are that rosy in Greece. It's trading below all SMA's. It's currently making a new weekly low and will be trending down on the weekly 3LB if it holds. It's not what they say, it's what they do. They agreed to new austerity measures but the money is saying don't believe the hype.



IBEX (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 11068.10
rev= 8923.40; mid= 9995.75

Spain is not Greece…yet. Greece has $5B of notional CDS while Spain has $18.392B of notional CDS. If/when Greece goes those holding Spain CDS have major problems. That doesn't include government bonds. The IBEX is trading below all SMA's. It's below its monthly 3LB mid. It's also back below its weekly 3LB mid. "The pain in Spain…"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"The bouncer didn't want to let us in."

Creditcane™: Hard to defend against sneak attacks.

SPX
Bearish short day - long tail (still confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing SMA(144) & SMA(21). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and held the 85.4% retrace (1277.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1265.33). QE2infinity. The games people play.



DXY
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(89). Held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Bearish short day (still confirmed hammer & double bottom). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (20.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Captured and extradited back to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Failed SMA(21). Failed its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Hammer day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).



JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Held its 38.2% retrace (39.48). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (failed bullish engulfing). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (28.87). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.99).



WTI
Bearish long day. Failing SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 85.4% retrace (93.07). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.71).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Failing SMA(89), SMA(55) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.37).




XRT
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (51.92). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.67).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.23.11

Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 43.259
rev= 32.629; mid= 37.944


Ever since gold made that move during the week ending 5/6/11 the ratio has been trading in a triangle. The apex appears to be in three weeks. So gold is either about to take off or plummet. I would hazard a guess that CB's would prefer the latter. It's interesting that the EU emergency summit is around that time. It's above the weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Plus it's only above the SMA(21) and well below the other SMA's.



CYB (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48

China's yuan is increasing. Might be due to all of the rate rises. Problem is overnight funding has dried up and SHIBOR is going through the roof. It's back above the SMA(21) and the 23.6% retrace. It's also confirming the bullish harami made last week.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Hit the market with the one-two punch. The ref is counting as we speak.

SPX
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144) & SMA(21). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 61.8% retrace (1295.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1265.33). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(21) & SMA(55). Held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Hammer day (also a double bottom). Midpoint below EMA(10). Snuck below SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Captured and extradited back to the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Held SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Held its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Failed its 38.2% retrace (39.48). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day (possible bullish engulfing). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (28.93). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.99).



WTI
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 85.4% retrace (93.07). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 97.84).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(89), SMA(55) & SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Holding its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.37).



HYG/LQD
Bearish harami day. No test of 0.0% retrace (0.7899). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7961).



TLT
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (97.72). Trading above its upper trend line. Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (96.54). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 97.64).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

That's Beijing time (11 AM) or 11 PM ET here.

Morning Corner 6.22.11

ATHENS (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 1252.38
rev= 1356.24; mid= 1304.31


This move higher doesn't look too promising. Ok, so Greece had a successful vote of confidence. Note the first three letters: CON. Next week they'll have a successful vote on austerity. But remember it's not what you say, it's what you do. So don't expect anything to be implemented. The index is still trading below all of the SMA's, the weekly 3LB mid and the monthly 3LB mid.



EEM (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 45.79
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 45.79
rev= 50.17; mid= 47.98

Emerging markets will be struggling to stay above its monthly 3LB reversal this week and next. It's below the SMA(21) and the second trend line (5/21/10-2/25/11). So far this week is making a bullish piercing but last weeks candle wasn't long enough (for me). A break below the March 2011 low of 44.25 could turn into free fall.



EMB (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 109.04
rev= 107.72; mid= 108.38


EMB appears to be holding up better than EEM. It's above all of the SMA's. It's back above its weekly 3LB mid. Also well above its monthly 3LB mid. Odd. I guess the bond traders think all will be fine after the smoke and mirrors.