WEEKEND EDITION - Fly Down (in the Belmont)

A smart person knows when to quit while they're ahead... (or, I think that's the accepted logic)...


Frankly, CV never bought into that theory very much... It's utterly stupid... I mean what's the purpose? To "lock in" gains? (which, in your newly transformed QUITTERS role, you'll probably wind up tossing back into the arena in another way anyway)... What are you supposed to do after? Take up knitting?...


So why quit? To gain comfort? I hate hearing things on TV like what I heard recently about LeBron James (and where he winds up in free agency)... The comments (from the sportscasters) are like... "Well it doesn't matter where he goes because he's SET FOR LIFE financially"... Screw that... If I don't think that I have the capacity to rebuild, multiple times over, and generate anything from scratch, I might as well just pack it in...


But others think, once you're set for life financially, all your worries will disappear, so at that point, why bother even having ANY GOALS at all?... Quit while you're ahead! Right?

OTOH

"If you find yourself alone, riding in green fields with the sun on your face... Do not be troubled... For you are in Elysium... And you're already DEAD!"

OK OK... This is all just CV being overly dramatic in doing one simple thing... I managed to nail the KENTUCKY DERBY winner with my call on SUPER SAVER... It seemed to me that "Socioeconomics" were at play (with that NAME)... 


So I'm going to try to BOOKEND that call by taking FLY DOWN in the Belmont Stakes... $200 on his nose...


He looked pretty impressive in the Grade 2 Dwyer (at Belmont)... We'll see how it goes...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1110.88. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Hanging man from 6/3/10 interred. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Make a move already. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 86.10.



VIX
Bullish long day. Completed morning doji star pattern. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing only the painters can paint the tape (sometimes). Tested and closed above the 23.6% retrace and back above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish piercing day. Now above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Tested fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (failed). Next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2207.



JNK
Bullish long day. Tested the 0.0% retrace (passed) but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Doji day. Confirmed hanging man. Still above the 21 SMA (barely). Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (failed). Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



WTI
Bearish long day. Closed below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested and closed below the 38.2% retrace. Looking to test the 23.6% retrace at 69.65. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 68.01).

Morning Audibles 6.4.10 In Limbo

Don't ask me, I'm a friggin' ball!

But here are some numbers to mull over in your dome...


JUST ABOVE (stacks & stacks of resistance)
1105 = 200 Day Moving Average
1106 = Close of Sept 28th, 2008, the day the crash accelerated
1110 = .09 fibo retrace from 1219.8
1115 = 2009 close
1121 = 50% re-tracement of 666-1576


JUST BELOW (as in "lookout")
1101 = KT
1097 = Wangers Magical Mystical Number


So basically, CV has determined that the only thing holding up the entire market these days are karen & Wanger...


Now... What can either of you do about plugging that oil gusher?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Spinning top day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Failed to retake 200 SMA (yay). Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Still above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Hanging man day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Make a move already. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Doji day. Possible start of morning doji star pattern. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing only the painters can paint the tape. Still above the 14.6% retrace (failed) but fell below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day (confirmed hanging man). Now below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).



EURUSD
Inverted hammer day (DID NOT WANT TO GO LOWER). If low gets taken out then look out. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2387.



JNK
Bearish long day (bearish engulfing?). Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Hanging man day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (failed). Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



COPPER
Bearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed below weekly 3LB reversal and monthly 3LB reversal. Tested 76.4% retrace (failed) and 85.4% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes.

Morning Audibles 6.3.10 A "Technical Foul"

Basically... Today CV is handing out YELLOW & RED cards...

Basically... Every stinkin' day... The Egyptian God AMEN RA wraps the days activity with some impressive charts... But you REALLY have to look at them to understand how impressive they are... 


It does NO GOOD to just read "Ra's" words and just offer a few typed TEXT of "thanks" and go on talking about oil spills... You have to LOOK at the charts themselves... They tell a story... What story do they tell?


- Is it the story of a "typical recovery"?
- Is it the story of a schizo market?
- Is it the story of QE forever?


Here was yesterdays offering...


SPX
Bullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.


Here was the chart...

There's A LOT of stuff on that damn thing!


- 3lb's
- SMA's
- candles
- major timelines
- FIBO levels


What else does CV need to say?


I don't know what to "say", but I can surefire tell you what I "see"...


Ask yourself a few questions (there are NO CORRECT ANSWERS to this, INSTEAD, simple hypotheses)...


- Are the Candles trying to stretch back to broken SMA levels?
- Are they trying to regain FIBO levels?
- Have they succeeded (if only temporarily) to navigate SUPPORT LEVELS?
- Can one see (given the proper degree of "vision") future candles and lines on this cart "designing" themselves in certain ways? If so... In WHAT way?


Are there certain points (not EVIDENCED on the chart itself - but what one might insert, by recollect, ONTO the chart)... That might allow the chart as a whole to take on a different perspective?


How does this chart INTERACT with other charts?


- of individual stocks?
- of other broad equity markets?
- of CREDIT MARKETS (which are the "daddy", anyway)?
- of CURRENCY MARKETS (which are the "stepdaddy", at least)?
- of COMMODITY MARKETS (or commodity currency markets)?
- of the political landscape?
- of the "political SPIN landscape" (or efforts thereto)?
- of the "GEO-POLITICAL" spin/landscape?
- of the "data release" calendar?
- of the UNSCHEDULED "data release calendar" (not that there IS one)...?
- of the "PRE-EMPTIVE" calendar (when deemed necessary by TPTB)?


CV has an algorithm to deal with this... 


It's UNSCRIPTED... It's HARDLY "fail-safe"... But it IS... FLEXIBLE... You can not WRITE IT in a program (because ANYTHING scripted is destined to become obsolete the moment the hammer hits the chisel into the marble)...


There are long periods of BOREDOM in markets (punctuated by moments of CHAOS)... Those "moments" usually determine WINNERS & LOSERS (and, in the process, qualify those "Lipper Average Beaters" [whatever the fuck that is supposed to mean])


As for me?... I personally think that the DETAIL of these charts frame the potential for a story... 


The "comments" provide further insight... (unless they are MISDIRECTED)... Not that every moment has to be on topic... Just that the ENDING NARRATIVE should leave you somewhere (and not SPINNING OFF into an unknown part of the galaxy)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still kryptonite. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (again). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Decisiones, decisiones. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing the market is a game. Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed) but stayed above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Hanging man day (I'd say dragonfly doji but body is 22% of h-l range). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1176.10).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed up for the day but lower than yesterday. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Never tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336. Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish short day (confirmed inverted hammer). Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



WTI
Bullish piercing day. Closed above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested and closed above 38.2% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 68.01).



HYG/LQD
Doji day (again). Tested the 50% retrace (passed). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).

Morning Audibles 6.2.10 - You Need Us

"In my younger and more vulnerable years my father gave me some advice that I've been turning over in my mind ever since.

'Whenever you feel like criticizing anyone,' he told me, just remember that all the people in this world haven't had the advantages that you've had.'"

---

"The wind had blown off, leaving a loud, bright night, with wings beating in the trees and a persistent organ sound as the full bellows of the earth blew the frogs full of life. The silhouette of a moving cat wavered across the moonlight, and, turning my head to watch it, I saw that I was not alone - fifty feet away a figure has emerged from the shadow of my neighbour's mansion and was standing with his hands in his pockets regarding the silver pepper of the stars. Something in his leisurely movements and the secure position of his feet upon the lawn suggested that it was Mr. Gatsby himself, come out to determine what share was his of our local heavens."...
F Scott Fitzgerald - THE GREAT GATSBY


As the case may be... Little did CV know that the party-ers in the Hamptons over this past weekend might have been on the lookout for lifeboats...


Damn, If I'd have known, I'd have cruised right down the Potomac (with my boat)... But first, I'd have first had to get by "Staircase Rapids" (on the confluence of the Potomac & Shenendoah - about 2000 meters from CV's farm)...

Then a bit further down... (past Georgetown on the Potomac - or those other relics dedicated to "scriptors" of The Constitution of the United States [which seem idiotically UNIMPORTANT to present lawmakers] - what were their NAMES anyway?... I forget...)

Same river passes a few hundred meters by this old decrepit cemetery (I can't see why it's of any importance - even if I'm POTUS... Hey - I'd rather catch a plane out of town to visit some old cronies for an Old Style BBQ in Chicago)... Yeah baby!

Further (OTHER) of us would then travel down the mouth of the Chesapeake, round Cape Charles way & the Norfolk Naval Base (& thereby giving a salute to my departed father whom we'd laid to rest in the waters there), then, up past Assateague Island (where the WILD PONIES still roam to this day)...

And after... Past Cape May, then further to South Hampton and in to "East Egg" (where TWSWB & friends take turns passing the Grey Poupon around)...

Purpose for my visit?... Perhaps to offer my little vessel as a LIFEBOAT... Or you know... Play "Gilligan" to all the Thurston & Lovey Howells... Give them the "3 hour tour", so to speak... Or, just be simple & cordial like Nick (and soak in the atmosphere)...

Who knows what's going on in the minds of these people?... I know that polo games & Grey Poupon can be very distracting... But it would seem to CV that as far as WISDOM is concerned, they should cast an eye upon the warnings of the "tribe" of SURVIVAL CAPITAL...


In 3 words... "You NEED US" (Hell- Thurston, "The Wizaed of Wall St. himself would tell you)...

"Most of the big shore places were closed now and there were hardly any lights except the shadowy, moving glow of a ferryboat across the Sound. And as the moon rose higher the inessential houses began to melt away until gradually I became aware of the old island here that flowered once for Dutch sailors' eyes - a fresh, green breast of the new world. Its vanished trees, the trees that had made way for Gatsby's house, had once pandered in whispers to the last and greatest of all human dreams; for a transitory enchanted moment man must have held his breath in the presence of this continent, compelled into an aesthetic contemplation he neither understood nor desired, face to face for the last time in history with something commensurate to his capacity for wonder. 

And as I sat there brooding on the old, unknown world, I thought of Gatsby's wonder when he first picked out the green light at the end of Daisy's dock. He had come a long way to this blue lawn, and his dream must have seemed so close that he could hardly fail to grasp it. He did not know that it was already behind him, somewhere back in that vast obscurity beyond the city, where the dark fields of the republic rolled on under the night.

Gatsby believed in the green light, the orgastic future that year by year recedes before us. It eluded us then, but that's no matter - tomorrow we will run faster, stretch out our arms further... And one fine morning..."

"So we beat on, boats against the current... Borne back ceaselessly into the past"
(the final sentence of THE GREAT GATSBY by Francis Scott Key Fitzgerald)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Currently confirming monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Takuri day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing it's not a dream. Think BP. Tested the 23.6% retrace (passed) and rose above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Currently confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1176.10.



EURUSD
Spinning top day (had support from somewhere). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Inverted hammer day (which confirmed hanging man). Back below gap support. Back below the 14.6% retrace and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day. Resolved doji lower. Back below the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



BP
Bearish short day. Closed below the 14.6% retrace. Still below the 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal (down) with reversal now 45.38.