CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig lost])
2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 57-40-2
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +2
NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (-$110)* (do as I "say" not as I do - the REDUX)
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2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 93-76-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +31
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+2,950)
Gameday/week writeup...
We're coming to the end of the line before we get to
Think it's hard predicting college football games? (look at my WAGER TOTAL numbers in NFL vs. NCAA - even though the aggregate picks are fairly evened out)... What's the takeaway? Watch, but don't BET on college football... Anyway, that whole thing is about to gett even more difficult because during bowl season, you get to try and figure out a bunch of "out of conference" match-ups with
Anyway, once again, here's CV's system (which hardly applies this week - except for noted exceptions)... Many of the games this weekend are CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS (so they're being played at neutral sites)... You have to factor that into the lines...
PREVIOUS SYSTEM
- Start fading "BCS #1" ranked teams as soon as the rankings come out
- Take Boise State & TCU regardless
- "Go the other way" (in which CV handicaps the Penn State game)
- I had Virginia Tech working for awhile as well, but that's more or less run its course now that they're in the ACC Championship game
Notes to that (this week)... The "live home dogs" is just about ended... It worked yet again this week with Fresno State... I also had Arizona State (which I gave you mid week), but the rule didn't apply there, as they were VISITING team... I took ASU for other reasons... On Saturday, the "live home dog" rule will apply to Louisiana Tech, Oregon State & Washington State... Note: It will NOT apply to South Carolina or Nebraska (because both are conference championships being played at neutral sites)... The system usually works better when the game is being played under the lights/mid-week, but I'll go along with the calls this Saturday anyway... If I had to peel one of those games out, it might be Washington State (because the Washington Huskies are still eligible for a coveted spot in a muffler or weed eater bowl at some town that only has bus service in & out)... ESPN doesn't send Erin Andrews to those towns (because the locals might get too drunk and crash their pickups)...
The "FADE BCS #1" ranked teams might apply EXTRA in this case... Because 13 times, in the past 12 season, believe it or not, the #1 ranked team LOST in the final week of play... IT'S TRUE!... However, that was always when either an SEC or Big 10 school was waiting in the catbird seat to take over either the #2 or #1 spot... With TCU perched at number #3... I expect the refs of the Oregon game, and the Auburn game to be instructed to be handy with the yellow flags (in case a good play is made by either OSU or USC)
... Or, you'll see a bunch of "whoops" missed extra points...
(Footnote: the schools that Oregon & Auburn have to get through today to make it to the BCS National Championship game, are nicknamed the "Cocks" and the "Beavers")... I won't editorialize on that one...
So... Finally... The Picks... (pick in BOLD CAPS)
ARIZONA STATE (+4) at Arizona - (1 unit) Thursday Night
Arizona State 30 - Arizona 29 - (+$100) - Correct
Illinois at FRESNO STATE (+5) - (1 unit) Friday Night
Fresno State 25 - Illinois 23 - (+$100) - Correct
Nevada at LOUISIANA TECH (+8.5) - (1 unit)
Nevada 35 - LT 17 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Nevada 35 - LT 17 - (-$110) - Incorrect
Washington at WASHINGTON STATE (+5.5) - (1 unit)
Washington 35 - Washington State 28 - ($110) - Incorrect
Washington 35 - Washington State 28 - ($110) - Incorrect
Oregon at OREGON STATE (+17) - (1 unit)
Oregon 37 - Oregon State 20 - ($0) - Push
Oregon 37 - Oregon State 20 - ($0) - Push
unlv at HAWAII (-34.5) - (1 unit)
Hawaii 59 - Unlv 21 - (+$100) - Correct
Hawaii 59 - Unlv 21 - (+$100) - Correct
CONNECTICUT (+2) at South Florida - (1 unit)
Connecticut 19 - USF 16 - (+$100) - Correct
Connecticut 19 - USF 16 - (+$100) - Correct
Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - [results] Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: West Virginia, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, UCF
Results:
Week 14 NCAA Picks (ATS): 8 - 2 - 2
Week 14 unit pick differential: +1
Week 14 unit pick differential: +1
Week 14 wager total: +($180)
Week 13 NFL picks and game write-ups posted before Sunday kickoff...
WEEK 13 NFL PICKS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Line: Dog Killers by 9.5
CV took the Dog Killers for 3 units
Philadelphia 34 - Houston 24 - (+$300) - Correct
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I realize that many of you rely on my picks each week to put food on the table and feed your families... But this week I'm going to do something a little different... I'm not putting any units on any of the EARLY GAMES (tho I will make a "pick" simply to fill out the card and let you know whhich direction I'd be leaning...
Why do this? (you say)... Several reasons... Number one, I've had a pretty decent week (hitting ALL my mid-week picks for multiple units), plus doing well on Saturday NCAA... So this is the stock market version of "booking profits"... I don't want to turn a winning week into a losing one...
Secondly, the public did very well versus Vegas yesterday as all the supported teams like Oregon, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Boise State, Nevada, & Auburn covered... The problem is, you have a whole slate of NFL games set up "lopsided" as well... I'm in this handicapping league (with about 90 other guys), we play for a pretty big prize... Anyway, come Saturday, each players "picks" are visible to all... I'm telling you... In the NFL, in most of the early games, EVERYONE is on one side or another, hardly any "mixture"... It's the equivalent of POMO or that other crap that goes on... Just buy the fucking dip has arrived this week in football wagering... Everyon just knows the Bears are going to cover against the Lions... And the Saints, Jags, Rams, Falcons, Packers, Colts, & Steelers are all EASY MONEY too...
So when I see something like that, I just stay away... If it's all that easy (and all these teams cover), Vegas sports will be shut down by Christmas... I'm pretty sure that will not happen, but with so many EASY MONEY games, it has created a lot of "noise", so it's hard to figure which one is the TRAP... One quick way to find out is to look at the ref crews... Carl Cheffers is doing the KC-Denver game (but the problem is, that's one of the games that is 52%-48%)... Scott Green is another trickster (but his crew is doing the New England - NY Jets game Monday Night)...
What I'm going to do here (because I'm feeling very strongly that a lot of these lines are going to come right down to the number)... Is offer a series of exotic bets (teasers)... In a 2 team teaser you can shift the line 6 points, in a 3 team teaser, you get to shift it 10 points)... It's usually a sucker bet, but this week it may be the best way to have a little action (on several outcomes), while locking in your profits and not giving much back if you lose...
Here are CV's "teaser" plays: (1 unit apiece)
2 TEAM TEASER
Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (-0.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+11.5)]
3 TEAM TEASER
Saints [change line from (-6.5) to (+3.5)] + Panthers [change line from (+5.5) to (+15.5)] + Steelers [change line from (+3) to (+13)]
MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Lions (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $1560
wager: 0.5 units
MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Patriots (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $759
wager: 0.5 units
EARLY SUNDAY GAMES
MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Lions (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $1560
wager: 0.5 units
MONEY LINE PARLAY (Teams only have to "win" straight up)
Chiefs (-400); Patriots (+190); Packers (-450); Falcons (-145); Chargers (-650); Colts (-240); Saints (-280)
Parlay Payout (on one unit) = $759
wager: 0.5 units
EARLY SUNDAY GAMES
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 EST)
Line: Vikings by 5.5
CV would "lean" to the Vikings
CV would "lean" to the Vikings
Line: Dolphins by 5
CV would "lean" to the Dolphins
CV would "lean" to the Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (1:00 EST)
Line: Flaming Thumbtacks by 3
CV would lean to the Jaguars
CV would lean to the Jaguars
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 8.5
CV would lean to the Broncos
CV would lean to the Broncos
Washington Redskins at New York Fumble Giants (1:00 EST)
Line: Fumble Giants by 7
CV would lean to the Redskins
CV would lean to the Redskins
Chicago Bears at Drew Stanton Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 4.5
CV would lean to the Lions
CV would lean to the Lions
San Francisco 49ers at 1921 Green Bay Packers (1:00 EST)
Line: Acme Packers by 9.5
CV would lean to the 49ers
CV would lean to the 49ers
(Pack going with the 1921 attire in this game)
(and you WONDER why Rex Grossman has had such a tough career in the NFL)
Rumor has it that if the NFL wants to move back to Los Angeles, West Hollywood is bidding for the stadium rights and would like Green Bay to consider a move...
Maybe when this guy becomes NFL commish...
New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 6.5
CV would lean to the Saints
CV would lean to the Saints
LATE GAMES
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4:15 EST)
Line: Falcons by 3
CV would lean to the Falcons
CV would lean to the Falcons
(Bucs going with the "creamsicles" this weekend)
Oakland at San Diego (4:05 EST)
Line: Chargers by 13
CV would lean to the Chargers
CV would lean to the Chargers
(Chargers going with the powder blue here)
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (4:15 EST)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5
CV would lean to the Panthers
CV would lean to the Panthers
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (4:15 EST)
Line: Colts by 5.5
CV would lean to the Cowboys
CV would lean to the Cowboys
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (4:15 EST)
Line: Rams by 3.5
CV would lean to the Cardinals
CV would lean to the Cardinals
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
CV would lean to the Steelers
CV would lean to the Steelers
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets at New England Patriots (8:35 EST)
Line: Patriots by 3.5
CV is leaning to the Patriots
CV is leaning to the Patriots
