A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
But not on my watch!
SPXBearish short day. Still pushing lower. Testing 1110.02 (fibo .09) again. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Noe below the 144 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (so close to a new low). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.
DXYNow that is a dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken and is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace at 87.37 and failed. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXSpinning top day. Fear of Merkel. Didn't bother the 23.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).
GOLDBearish long day. Tested but didn't break the 21 SMA. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 1243.10.
EURUSDBullish engulfing day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 12x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Also tested the .1855 fibo of 1.2336 and passed. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.
JNKBearish short day. Risk on risk off (thanks Miyagi). Still below the 50% retrace and below the 144 SMA. Tested the 38.2% retrace and failed. Closed at the 233 SMA (uh oh). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes.
GSBullish short day. Possible bullish harami. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Well below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Note: All MA's are still pointing down. No daily 3LB changes.
67 comments:
Jesse's latest is a real dichotomy:
"Bear Raid in Gold results in historic one day liquidation."
That's your WTF headline from a blogger...
A bear raid would occur when open interest is going up and someone is trying to jam it down. A long liquidation is something different. I love it when he goes conspiratorial "we told you to expect shenanigans around options expiry!!"
Bwahahahaha.
If you're short gold calls, then chances are you are delta hedged long. So, as you come to expiry and the options are going to go bye-bye, you have to unwind your delta hedges.
That's a very straightforward thing that happens all the time.
I wish that guy would allow some Comments on his site....
-AT
more new lows than new highs on NYSE today....been a long time since that's happened....
AT
Odd that there was a daily 3LB reversal in Gold but no reversal in GLD.
was today a series of 1's and 2's or a zig zag? I'm not sure, but we'll know soon enough...
Ben
The trin stayed around 0.5 all day so the bulls were fighting to the end. Volume A/D on NYSE, Nasdaq and Russell was 0.30 or lower so the bears were fighting back just as hard. Somehow someway volume A/D on the S&P got above 1. That's how they kept the bottom from falling out.
I thought this was a great post at BR's-
"If we are going lower, a cruel slow burn is actually the most devastating"- poster Patrick Neid
Which has been my thought for a long while-
no crash- but a long slow slog down- grinding its way- eating everyone's dip buys- chewing it up and looking for more- as it slowly digests everyone's paper wealth- until you are completely broke-
1931 anyone?
WTH happened to my earlier comments?
AT
Odd that Gold had a daily 3LB reversal but GLD didn't. Not even close
Hey Ben,
I'm going to pat myself on the back because my count was pretty darn accurate according to the big boys. We'll just have to see if it is the correct count.
Sweet dreams everybody. Not sure I'll sleep though LOL
wow-
where did all the comments go? political correctness I guess- lol-
anyway- AWESOME site for very quick and free charts- pretty impressive-
http://finviz.com/
This could get interesting: Today's Unprecedented Swiss Bank Intervention Driven By Massive Capital Flight From Germany To Switzerland (zerohedge)
Earlier today we disclosed what were not one but several massive central bank interventions in the Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate. The intervention was large enough to push the rate up by 300 pips, a gargantuan amount in a world where applied leverage is often in the thousands. The amount of capital required to achieve this was likely unprecedented. Yet what bothered us was why would the SNB so glaringly intervene in the FX market not once but three or even more times. Thanks to the Telegraph we find out that the reason was a massive €9.5 billion capital flight from Germany into Swiss deposit accounts just this morning, according to BNP. Unfortunately for Germany this is only the beginning of capital reallocation from the country into neighboring Switzerland. And the technical bounce in the EUR today was in fact an even greater sign of weakness: in fact, as the IMF's Tim Kingdon pointed out, the money run in Club Med banks last week resulted in a massive €56 billion of interbank lending as the move from the periphery to the core accelerated. Now that the next stage of the run is from the core, Europe will very soon find itself with depleted depository capital very soon. Because if money is fleeing Germany, it is certain that France, Italy and the UK can not be far behind.
@McF (7:02)
The thing that happens after a series of 1-2's, 1-2's...
Some people KNOW that thing...
Others? Citizens of "Cramerica"... perhaps not... :-)
@AT-
i was wondering if a lot of this week was related to options expiry.
CV noted it earlier
$-euro going to 1?
Ben
Trin stayed around 0.5 all day so the bulls were fighting tooth and nail to keep the bottom form falling out. Volume A/D on the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Russell 2k was 0.30 or less indicating the bears were fighting also. Somehow someway the volume A/D of the S&P got above 1 towards the close. That's how they kept the market from collapsing.
______
AT
Odd that Gold had a daily 3LB reversal but GLD didn't. Not even close.
Saw an interesting entry today from Panzer. He highlights this "Hauser" rule on tax receipts...it suggests that the government will NEVER be able to take in 20% of GDP in terms of tax receipts--that there is a natural ceiling to what they take in, relative to the GDP.
It's sort of fascinating but makes sense. You can jack up income taxes on wealthier people all you want...but the rich folks find ways to avoid paying taxes....
So, it makes one wonder why we have 70,000 pages of tax code when the USG only gets 18-19% of GDP no matter what's going on....
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/05/the-wrong-kind-of-thinking.html
Ahab, this one is for you! I know you've been on to something about that million $ Canadian shack in Vancouver. LOL.
Here is a blog article you may like. www.humblestudentofthemarket.blogspot.com/ Alternative view of Vancouver real estate.
"Vancouver is the least affordable city in the world, according to a report by Demographia International. A "good" detached house in Vancouver's west side is around $2 million give or take, but a "good" job in the local newspaper pays 50 - 70k a year. You can do the math...The standard explantion: Retirement capital and Asian money".
But he discounts that. His theory or explantion for hot hot Vancouver real estate market - B.C. Bud(marijuana).
The guy is not a nut case. He has been in equity market for long time( both on buy/sell side. Still in advisory position.
I have many family and friends in Vancouver and the burbs who have some dough in real estate ...
a test-
will my post post if I am logged out of google and post as anonymous-
let's see-
ahab
Anon
good blog but you typed name wrong:
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/
This could get interesting: Today's Unprecedented Swiss Bank Intervention Driven By Massive Capital Flight From Germany To Switzerland (zerohedge)
Earlier today we disclosed what were not one but several massive central bank interventions in the Euro-Swiss Franc exchange rate. The intervention was large enough to push the rate up by 300 pips, a gargantuan amount in a world where applied leverage is often in the thousands. The amount of capital required to achieve this was likely unprecedented. Yet what bothered us was why would the SNB so glaringly intervene in the FX market not once but three or even more times. Thanks to the Telegraph we find out that the reason was a massive €9.5 billion capital flight from Germany into Swiss deposit accounts just this morning, according to BNP. Unfortunately for Germany this is only the beginning of capital reallocation from the country into neighboring Switzerland. And the technical bounce in the EUR today was in fact an even greater sign of weakness: in fact, as the IMF's Tim Kingdon pointed out, the money run in Club Med banks last week resulted in a massive €56 billion of interbank lending as the move from the periphery to the core accelerated. Now that the next stage of the run is from the core, Europe will very soon find itself with depleted depository capital very soon. Because if money is fleeing Germany, it is certain that France, Italy and the UK can not be far behind.
AmenRa
test
AmenRa
Ben
Trin stayed around 0.5 all day so the bulls were fighting tooth and nail to keep the bottom form falling out. Volume A/D on the NYSE, Nasdaq, and Russell 2k was 0.30 or less indicating the bears were fighting also. Somehow someway the volume A/D of the S&P got above 1 towards the close. That's how they kept the market from collapsing.
______
AT
Odd that Gold had a daily 3LB reversal but GLD didn't. Not even close.
AmenRa
*posting as Anonymous seems to help
I give up. I hope blogger.com knows they are pissing off their users.
AmenRa
I give up. I hope blogger.com knows they are pissing off their users.
AmenRa
Thanks for that link AmenRa ... that makes sense.
wow-
my test worked-
let me just say blogspot got issues-
ahab
ahab
You don't have to log out. Just pick Anonymous under "Comment as"
AmenRa
ahab
You don't have to log out. Just choose Anonymous under "Comment as"
AmenRa
test
test
More on your story AmenRa:
"As a German citizen, I wish to apologise for the stupidity of my government," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas
proctologist
Nic
The article said the Euro probably rose because the size of interbank lending was huge.
Nic
Also gold fell because it was the most liquid investment they could use to make margin calls.
The apple never falls far from the tree: Greek central bank faces short selling claims
By Kerin Hope in Athens
Published: May 19 2010 16:11 | Last updated: May 19 2010 16:11
A Greek former European Commissioner has accused the country’s central bank of encouraging naked short-selling of Greek bonds by altering the regulations on its electronic bond trading platform last year.
Vasso Papandreou, a senior deputy in the governing socialist party, made the charges on Wednesday in a written question to parliament.
“The Bank of Greece knew the country’s negative fiscal situation. Why did it facilitate the speculation?” asked Ms Papandreou, who is not related to George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister.
Her question, supported by another 10 deputies, reflects growing concern in the Socialist party over an apparent policy contradiction in the handling of Greece’s debt crisis.
“The prime minister launched a truly titanic effort, on a global scale, aimed at unmasking speculators … his aim was to enable Greece to borrow at reasonable, not rapacious rates,” she said.
Andy T,
I'm going to make those fat cats at the top pay for everything.
Of course this is going to sound like CV just totally complaining... But permit me to ask a question...
With regards to the situation at large...
How difficult does anyone imagine it to be to do a DAILY THREAD without running risk of being one of the following?:
- totally oblivious to the actual underlying currents (IOW - Being a journalist on CNBC or MSNBC)...
- Being a NYT or WSJ journalist (and thereby only exposed to 'half truths' - essentially FILLING IN THE BLANKS on the rest, for pay)...
- Being a WSWB (and 'knowing' certain things, but permitting my 'conscience' to lower its standards because the AMOUNTS are rolling in from duped monetized liberals)...
- a TOTAL 'tin foil hatter'
- an egghead technician
- a social media exploiter
- a kitchen & bathroom remodeling showcaser
- a politician
- a lobbyist
Can anyone help me to THREAD THE NEEDLE here?
No... Don't bother... Despite the GRAVITY... I relish the challenge... I'll dig down even deeper to find that divine equilibrium...
CV
Talk about both sides of the issue. Reasons to be bearish and vice versa.
Oh...futures have turned lower. I'll dream of half truths and green shoots (trying more reverse psychology).
3 month Libor - Overnite Libor spread has gone from 0.037 (3/16/10) to 0.178 (5/19/10). An increase of 141 bps. Ouch.
@Amen
When we get to 1042 on May 25th (which I 'modified' from a previous 1083 call)...
Then I'll GLADLY talk about 'both sides'...
Until then, I'm leaning...
Oh, I feel that I will never catch up! AT, too right on Jesse and gold.. these bugs infuriate me and I am one!
I've had a horrible and exasperating evening, a full seesaw! heroin shot that my friend came out of her surgery well.. (I just came home from sitting with her husband) but my own personal cr*p.. if only i believed in GOD, i would become a nun! Laughing, I think i'll go back to living my life thru my sons.. focusing on myself sure hasn't paid off.
CV, at 11:55, good question but i think WE have the answer.. WE will keep each other honest and thinking.
@karen
You're a beautiful California girl...
There4...
Get your mind on THE WAVES... :-)
I just had a telephone conversation with a VERY OLD FRIEND who I hadn't talked to in two decades...
He's in SO CAL...
I'm thinking he, myself, & ben need to 'hook up' in August (when ben goes)...
You're just down the pike... Maybe you'd consider cruising up...
CV, of course, I would drive up! I'd also love to host anyone at my home (depending on current crashers, lol !) But I can fit crowd, just the same !!!
wow-
blogspot kicked in and decided to work-
hallelujah- praise Jesus
would be in phoenix just across the way for a wedding over labor day weekend and have a bud just up the coast from y'all.
In asking anew for an immigration overhaul, Obama showed solidarity with his guest of honor, Mexican President Felipe Calderon, who called Arizona's law discriminatory and warned Mexico would reject any effort to "criminalize migration.- AP
I guess if it were white French Canadians streaming into New England-
it would be ok- not racist to deport them?
Obama- what's up w/ this dude? Solidarity- supporting migration- WTF is that? We don't get to say who comes in- at least have them sign the guest book as they come across the border?
Obama is a "one worlder" - borders- what the hell are they good for-
"President Barack Obama on Wednesday condemned Arizona's crackdown"
What- AZ doesn't have its own border w/ Mexico that has an out of control drug war tipping over into AZ- they don't have the right to say who can stay and needs to GTFO?
"LA Teacher at UCLA demonstratio calls for revolution - Declares Los Angeles Mexican territory"-
listen to this fool
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koLX6-XtAnA
what's up with blogger....ugh.
We are gapping down this morning team.
1085ish??......I want to see five waves down, a third of a third. This would be sweet.
Weeeeee!
Oh, and yeah, I guess there are some more "shenanigans" going on with gold.
Anyone getting that feeling that the "all the same markets" theme is about to really pick up steam again?
b22-
all I can say- is Cramer's gold call was well timed- lol
oil to reach FL in about six days?
what a disaster.
Crammer...lol
and hey, don't look now....but silver is back below 18..that didn't take long.
re Greece-
Today, another 100,000 protesters of austerity are expected to hit the streets as the entire country is essentially shut down
I mean really- what's their choices? If there is no austerity- then what is the solution? Siphoning money from other countries w/ a better balance sheet?
Are we going to have flash crash version 2 two weeks after the first one?
I found the Obama comments on the AZ law quite interesting considering that in February of this year he extended three provisions of the Patriot Act, allowing government to "obtain roving wiretaps over multiple communication devices, seize suspects' records without their knowledge...and conduct surveillance of someone deemed suspicious"
that's right...someone ANYONE, deemed 'suspicious'
Couple that with the Einstein 3 and it helps to reveal his nonsense in light of quotes of his like this:
"We're examining any implications especially for civil rights because in the United States of America, no law abiding person -- be they an American citizen, illegal immigrant, or a visitor or tourist from Mexico -- should ever be subject to suspicion simply because of what they look like."
and also, 'illegal' in my mind means 'against the law' yes? So how can you stick illegal immigrants in a statement about law abiding persons?
Nic,
there is going to be another one, government rules are likely to accelerate the timing of it.
Stops are about to get blown out.
Gold falling hard again. More margin calls?
Will they pull the bid again?
man- I just checked the futures-
dudes and dudettes- they look grusome
b22-
Obama- no doubt- why bother law abiding immigrants who come here illegally- lol
or should we call them- a la- Hillary Clinton- "undocumented workers"
and regarding the Patriot Act- every President wants to monitor whoever they want- who is being monitored may change- but- the continuation of the provisions allows them target and monitor anyone
woosh silver :)
peeps, we need a close below the flash crash low with five down, oh that would look so bearish.
WTE Initial claims 471k...UH OH
and add to that Walmart same store sales were down
All U.S. stocks will probably be subject to so-called circuit breakers by the end of this year . . Our expectation is that they will be more aligned with the underlying liquidity of the individual securities . . .For example, some stocks need to fall 10 percent to trigger the circuit breaker mechanism while some others only need to fall 5 percent or 2 percent
laugh the eff out loud- WTF- 2%- boy- good luck unloading your stock
Ra/b22/Nic-
perfect storm?
Morning all,
Say, when Japan imploded after 1990, do you suppose there were articles stating that this was a good time to buy a car, take out a mortgage, you know, spend money? And what did the Japanese people do? The record is pretty clear. Are we Japan? Hmmm.....
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fading-of-inflation-helps-apf-1239991108.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- It's a good time to buy a car, refinance a mortgage, hit the road or shop for clothes.
Invest in a saving account? Forget it.
Consumer inflation has all but disappeared, the government reported Wednesday. The Federal Reserve may now be emboldened to keep interest rates at record lows well into next year -- and possibly into 2012.
As a result, banks' prime lending rate will stay at its lowest point in decades. That figure is used to peg rates on credit cards, home equity loans, some adjustable-rate mortgages and other consumer loans. Rates on fixed-rate mortgages remain low, too, thanks to a growing belief that the Fed will further delay any rate hike.
So what do persistent low inflation and record-low rates mean for consumers?
-- The time is right to buy a car. New-car prices were flat in April. And they've fallen 1 percent over the past 12 months. Big banks are offering super-low rates in the 3 percent to 4 percent range, says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com. Normally, such rates are available only to companies, not individuals, McBride says."
Ladies & Gents...
I'm a little out of pocket this morning because I'm having some computer problems...
I'm going to start a new thread just to get it started, but I'll have to insert the THEME later on...
NEW THREAD UP - in a minute
ahab,
8:33, oh I think so. But I'm just a super bear at this point so you know....
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