Weekend Timeouts



As I stated last week... I'm going to continue to publish a weekend 'feature' game (NCAA or NFL) here in this space (as well as a link to the blogspace I'm running now which deals exclusively with NCAA/NFL Football & Fantasy Sports)...



WEEK 5 - FEATURE GAME - NCAA
PREVIEW: After going 11-5 the week before I stumbled a bit last week... Forget about the 'picks' for a minute & I'll tell you a few things I'm seeing & look ahead to see who are 'for real', who are 'pretenders', & who are 'middle of the road'...


- Wisconsin, to me, is the cream of the Big 10... I believe the Wisconsin-Nebraska match-up this weekend will foreshadow the 1st ever Big 10 Championship game... I still have Wisconsin as a potential candidate to make it to the BCS Championship...

- LSU is probably the most impressive team I've seen (even first hand) overall... They've still got a tough SEC schedule to manage, but I'm on their train until they stumble...

- I really like Florida (who plays Alabama this week)... I may be underestimating Alabama (because they really play their cards close to the vest... They'd better be careful in this spot... I'm going to be taking Florida & the points at home in that contest & see where the chips fall)...

- Clemson is really surprising me thus far... We'll see how far that goes (maybe not beyond this week), because they have to travel to Blacksburg to play Virginia Tech... VT has not impressed me as much this year, yet they're not doing anything wrong either... The ACC is still up for grabs...

- Oklahoma is annoying to me... Ball State??? Are you kidding me??? Get a #1 ranking and keep it by playing teams like Ball State at home (well - basically that strategy just dumped you to #2 last week - so the joke's on YOU)... BIG WHEELS out there in Norman...

 - Boise State continues to do what they do... They have to face Nevada thius week (who ruined their season last year)...

- Stanford is the cream of the West... I can't see Oregon competing with them for the PAC 12 title... & nobody is going to come out of the Pac 12 South to challenge them in the conference championship... It'll either be Az. State or Utah... BOTH teams Stanford could wax...

Early picks for conference championships...

ACC - Florida State can make it if it gets it's pieces back... VA Tech & Clemson are for real... GA Tech is a pretender...

SEC - Gotta go with LSU at this point (before the real fun begins)

BIG 10 - Wisconsin

PAC 12 - Stanford

Big 12 - Oklahoma STATE (I just think they're better than Oklahoma)

Big East - West Virginia (but Pitt really impressed me on Thursday & won me 5 units)... Anyway, it's no wonder the Big East is bleeding schools to the ACC... I look for WVU to join the SEC eventually...

Boise State will be 'in' the BCS mix... I think Florida joins the party & Alabama might risk shuffling back... Nebraska, Oregon, & South Carolina will all pack their bags before all is said & done...

I'll tell you right now what the BCS 'gods' prolly want to see is LSU - Stanford in the Championship game... They want to see Andrew Luck go against a ferocious defense... It could happen if both teams run the table...

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Before I get to the game of the week... I have to put up this re-cap of yesterday matchup... Read my 'write-up' on that one (especially the TAG at the end)... It was TRUE what happened... Funniest moment of the week for me...


Utah State at BYU (-8) (8:00 ET)

I just think that Utah State is the more entertaining team to watch here... I'm starting to get worried about seeing all these BYU games on Friday Nights... (Especially facing an "in state" foe)... I'm going to have to start recording the telecasts and watching them 'backwards' or peering in between the frames to make sure there's not any hidden messages going on here...

Wait... I just heard a knock at the door so I gotta go... Looks like two guys in white shirts & black ties holding some book or something... Now if they were only selling "Girl Scout Cookies"...

UTAH STATE for (0 units)
The 'spy' says: 
(result)

EDIT - No lie... 10 minutes after I typed that, the doorbell rings and there are 2 Girl Scouts (& one mother at the door)... I sh** you not!... Either GOD is trying to send a message to me, or, I don't know... Maybe he just wants me to buy some Girl Scout cookies?... I think I need 7 years in Tibet... or Provo...

Saturday, October 1, 2011


#3 Alabama (-3.5) at #12 Florida (8:00 ET)
Box Score | Recap

You kind of have to read my overall descriptions (& rankings) of teams thus far to get a sense of this pick... The bottom line here is that these two teams seem fairly evenly matched...

I think what gets my attention most is the fact that Florida seems to be more "up & coming" at the moment... Alabama graduated a lot of seniors to the NFL last year & while the heart & soul of the squad still exists... I think they're marginally less effective on offense... OTOH, Florida has some wild playmakers that are NFL prospects which might make a difference here if their inexperience doesn't force them into mistakes...

Probably the BIGGEST angle of this game is the former relationship between Florida coach Will Muschamp & his 'mentor' (Nick Saban) of Alabama...

Muschamp... On being a "padowan"... (click to see video)...
Any guy who can deliver a press conference like that before, arguably, the most important game of his career, deserves to have a few units tossed in his direction...

FLORIDA for (3 units)

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WEEK 4 - FEATURE GAME - NFL


New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 EDT)
Line: Saints by 7

Let's go back to my PRESEASON 'predictions' to make it to the Super Bowl in Indianapolis... I picked the SAINTS vs. the PATRIOTS...

In Week 1... I cautioned everyone that the Saints would have to prove their mettle (through a series of 'tests' - or otherwise 'baptism by fire' - if they were to attain that objective)... I took them (& the points) in week 1 vs. the defending SuperBowl Champion Packers, but 'warned' that I thought the Packers might win...

The Saints came within a goal line stand as time expired of pulling off that upset... In Week 2, the Saints hosted the Bears (who were 'hosts' of last years NFC Championship)... They demolished the Bears... Last week, they came impressively back from a double digit defecit to defeat a high powered Texans squad...

If you ask me, the Saints are "on schedule" (but perhaps not FEELING IT yet - becaused I think in their minds their foes are the Packers - and that matchup might not happen again until this years NFC Championship)...

Frankly, the Saints... Despite improving week to week, are not really at full speed yet... They're still just getting Will Smith back into game shape on the defensive front, and their secondary has been having it's same health ups & downs... On offense, they're shuffling receivers in and out of the inactive list, and their running game, though slightly improved, still is a committee...

Speaking of a 'committee'... Has it occurred to anyone but myself that, IN PRACTICE, a 'committee' functions as the exact polar opposite of it's name?... To C-O-M-M-I-T is a decisive action...

"Committees" (you know - the kind of things that Obama seems to love to assemble, basically all just sit around & eat doughnuts have beers, & compare PhD's and never agree on anything or get anything accomplished... Then, when they finally do push something through (& it predictably fails), everyone basically says that NOBODY COULD HAVE EVER EXPECTED IT (after all - the 'committee' was a panel of EXPERTS)...

I'm going to UNEXPERTLY COMMITT to laying the points with the Saints here... Blaine Gabbert (rookie QB for Jax), will be facing the 'kitchen sink' type blitz packages from a Greg Jennings defense... Maybe Jax will be able to pound the rock with MJD a little and keep 3rd down distances manageable, but the return of Will Smith will make it harder than it would have been in weeks 1-3...

SAINTS keep rolling for (1 unit)...

Note (to FANTASY owners out there):

In one of the big money leagues I'm in... This week I was offered a straight up trade... Mojo for Mike Wallace... I turned it down (& this is a league that I'm a little hurting for a marquis RB)... The 'psychology' of that decision is worth noting... Basically, it means that I still think the NFL is morphing into a passing league (again) & I value WR#1 players over RB#1 players... Much of it also has to do with "injury potential"...

The NFL goes through these PHASES from time to time (which can last a decade or more - where either offense or defense gets highlighted)... Right now we still seem to be increasingly on an 'offensive' swing...

I'll give you an example... The 70's was all about DEFENSE ('Purple People Eaters' - MIN; 'No-Name' defense - MIA; 'Orange Crush' - DEN; 'Over the Hill Gang' - WAS; 'Fearsome Foursome' - LA; 'Steel Curtain' - PIT; & of couse the 'Silver & Black' crew in Oakland)...

It took an innovator like Joe Walsh to bring about the "West Coast Style offense" to the 49ers (in the 80's), and the scoring opened up again... That basically lasted throughout the entire 80's & 90's (interrupted, only occasionally, like in 1986 by the Bears & Buddy Ryan's "46" defense)... The OFFENSIVE thrust culminated in 1999 by the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams team...

By 2001... Defense was back in vogue as the Ravens managed to win a Super Bowl with a chump like Trent Dilfer at QB... Oddly, the rest of the 2000-2010 period was characterized by a lack of a specific identity (an effort to be balanced - which usually failed in the end - because instead of trying to DO SOMETHING - it was like all teams were simply trying to AVOID having bad things done to them)...

The teams that are ON TOP (as we speak)... Are the ones who have basically just said... "FU** it!"... This is who we are, & we're gonna roll with it... & the emphasis is on OFFENSE...

I'll let the "socioeconomists" figure that one out...


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Note: I'll continue to use the other blog only as a 'pick' resource for quite awhile (Comments are disabled there)... Whether any of you like it or not... I like to hang around HERE to yuk it up... Why?

Sometimes you wanna go where everybody knows your name...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.




Creditcane™: My new technique. It's called the EOQ chokehold.


SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below the daily and weekly mids. Three daily lower highs and lower lows. Make that four.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (78.71). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.58). Had a monthly 3LB reversal up.



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (40.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Captured and returned to the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (1588.60). Holding above SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish engulfing day (in a downtrend no less). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3540). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3561).



JNK
Bearish long day (and it gapped lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.35). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.39).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.15).



WTI
Bearish engulfing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (80.51). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 86.97). Had a monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bearish short day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (30.76). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (35.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.45).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day (and it also gapped lower). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.7627).



USDJPY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.54).



COPPER
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (3.106). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.280).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 9.30.11

CRB (weekly info)
new low 301.87
trend=down
low= 301.87
rev= 336.89; mid= 319.38


Commodities have been heading for the exit. Last week CRB closed below its 50.0% retrace. This week is forming a bullish harami but it isn't really bullish because it's failing to close above the midpoint of the bearish candle. It's also failing the SMA(89).



FSLR (weekly info)
new low 70.24
trend=down
low= 70.24
rev= 104.13; mid= 87.21


Got solar? The shareholders probably wish they didn't. It's trending down on the weekly 3LB and on the monthly 3LB (since 2/09). It's below all SMA's. It's taking out the 61.8% minor retrace (71.81) leaving the 0.0% retrace (32.60) as support.



3 Mth vs Overnight Libor (daily info)
new high 0.227
trend=up
high= 0.227
rev= 0.217; mid= 0.222


No comment needed. The funny thing is that the actual rates are probably higher since not one bank wants anyone to know how bad their balance sheets really are.



COPPER (monthly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 4.551
rev= 3.898; mid= 4.225

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.




Creditcane™: Hey ref. He was not on the ropes. You should've let me finish him.


SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below the daily and weekly mids. Three daily lower highs and lower lows.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.19). Still above the monthly 3LB reversal price.



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (39.46). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Captured and again escaped the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (1588.60). Tested and held SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3598). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3644).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (37.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.15).



WTI
Bullish piercing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.51). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.27). Above monthly 3LB rev but below weekly 3LB mid.



SILVER
Bullish thrusting day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (30.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.49).



BKX
Bullish long day (didn't confirm evening star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (35.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.45).



HYG/LQD
Bullish piercing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7592). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.54).



2s30s Spread
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Failing (tremendously) its 100.0% retrace (3.04). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.04).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 9.29.11

IWM/SPY (weekly info)
new low 0.5716
trend=down
low= 0.5716
rev= 0.5908; mid= 0.5812


The proxy for liquidity has been drying up for the past few weeks. Probably explains the some of the volatility. It had a monthly 3LB reversal down last month. It's confirming it this month. It's below all SMA's. You can also see what happened at the apex of the two trend lines.



SODA (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 34.63
rev= 68.17; mid= 51.44


After the big move lower SODA still can't catch a break. Currently it's in a triangle where the apex is about two weeks from here. It's below all SMA's. It's testing its 50.0% minor retrace.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.




Creditcane™: A rubber market is beginning to snap in two.


SPX
Bearish long day (extended falling three method?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below the daily and weekly mids.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.19). Still above the monthly 3LB reversal price.



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (40.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Captured and returned to the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day (another harami failure). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (1651.50). Tested and failed SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1757.30). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day (bearish harami in a down trend?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3598). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3644).



JNK
Bearish really long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (37.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.15).



WTI
Bearish long day (denied the bullish engulfing confirmation). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.51). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.27).



SILVER
Bearish engulfing day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (30.76). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.58).



BKX
Bearish long day (evening star completed). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Holding above its 0.0% retrace (35.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.45).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7375). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (0.7592). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.54).



COPPER
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (3.412). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.726).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.