Weekend Edition - BEFORE the Dance Gets Started

The Oscars/SuperBowl/Kentucky Derby/and average weekend NCAA&NFL schedules line up more conveniently for a WEEKEND POST... The NCAA Tournament is not so cooperative in that the final dance card is not published until Sunday Night...

I'll try to do a post on Monday or so, on brackets, but frankly, I already anticipate to NOT do anything very detailed for two main reasons:

1. In kicking it around with you people over the past years, I've discovered that a lot of you already KNOW a lot of things about college hoops... So unlike the intracacies of the NFL (which I can write volumes on), my "hoops" commentary tends to be of the generic kind...

2. In doing a quick PREVIEW (of what I think my picks will be), I've discovered that I'm likely going with "CHALK" this year (meaning: unlike last year, most of who is SUPPOSED to advance deep, I think, will in fact run deep)...

So what I'll end up doing (probably Monday or Tuesday evening), is do a post with mt RULES of picking teams to make deep runs (then "plug in" the teams that fit that criteria)...


So to otherwise fill up this post for the rest of the weekend, I've decided to present you all with a few thoughts (to go along with some reading material)... Regardless of what your "personal" feelings are towards the subject, it is NO DOUBT a fascinating subject, that will, most likely, not only have a PROFOUND effect on all of our lives, but also reverberate for many years... (So I suppose it's hard NOT to be interested in something like that... I'll start out with some reading material (which I believe is about as good of a 360 view on the experience, as any)... As always, the reader can draw their own conclusions...

Dying of Money
Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations
Jens O. Parsson
(1974)

Give me some credit for presenting this material on a WEEKEND... I realize that when I get in to this debate in the middle of a daily thread, some of you think that it clutters up the focus of "tick for tick" trading (and you're probably right about that)... So my effort here is to present the thoughts UNENCUMBERED by that distraction... Therefore, if you want to read about this, or offer opinions & add anecdotal evidence, here's your chance (as the last time I checked, the markets were closed - for maintenance - I hear because it seems that the computer cards SHUT DOWN every time a large volume sell-off invades the order channels)... OTOH - If you have NO OPINION on the subject (or think it's not relative to either your trading or everyday lives [both present & future]), well, then here's your Miranda warning (right to remain silent)...

To frame this subject... I'd prefer NOT to call it an INFLATION vs. DEFLATION debate (whether with regards to money supply theory OR "prices")... The simple reason is because they both come to the same ENDPOINT at some undetermined point in the future... That is why I think the title of the linked article "THE DYING OF MONEY" is appropriate (because in the end, you either kill it, or it kills you)...

All anybody probably needs to know is the ROAD that is traveled between here and there...

In considering the historic paths of these events, it appears to me that the following "psychologies" are probably important in determining the WILL OF THE PEOPLE to suffer one form of money collapse or another...

1. Sheer amount of monetary DEBT in the system (let's call that "a quadrillion dollars" in the present dollar denominated, dollar considered as reserve currency)

2. The EXPERIENCE your culture has in having dealt with one form of crisis or another (vis-a-vis the "boogeyman to Germans, perhaps is hyperinflation due to Weimar; whereas Americans have been schooled to think deflation/Depression are things to be avoided at all costs [well - that flash of electricity probably ignites somewhere in the brain for a millisecond somewhere in the flash time period for NCAA game to go to a commerical for Doritos & when the next awards show featuring Justin Beaver is going to air]...

In any case, my point is (metaphorically speaking), If you build your hime in a flood zone, and a flood comes and wipes you out, then the next time you might say "Hey - I'll take my chances with an EARTHQUAKE" (of course then an earthquake comes and sends tsunami waves crashing over your property so you die in a flood anyway - I'm not trying to be "funny" there in light of what's happening in Japan - just pointing out the ultimate tragic-comedy of our piddly human existence).

3. Political Will... YES political will... Not that politicians really "control" anything, but in a country like Amerika, we can toss an entire branch of government out on their asses every two years if we want... & we can blow the entire system up every 4 years... This is "whack a mole" at it's finest (which is an important criteria if you consider the WILL of a population to actually address the situation that ails them)... I've come to the conclusion that Americans have ZERO WILL... You could call it the "MTV Culture" (but that would make it sound like I was singling out a generation - which I'm not)... I'm referring more to the "I want it all & I want it now" mentality (of Americans)...

4. Promises... This is going to bleed in to #3 above 9and perhaps is one of the most important elements in the overall determination of what PATH will be chosen... Promises have to do with "populism"... IOW - the more people that are alive that have been PROMISED something (a "money" something, like payouts, benefits, etc.), the more HEADS there are to be considered who will be disaffected by the collapse of money... These people have a VESTED interested in keeping that money coming to them...

Each one of them have a VOTE (so in the 2 and 4 year cycles, as described in #3 - they will VOTE to keep their benefits... Even if they realize that by doing so, they are, in essence, looting the national treasury at the expense of other people)... People want to criticize BANKERS for acting in their own interests and operating in a way that only benefits themselves (and that is TRUE)... But it is also true for all government workers (who essentially PAY NO TAX - because their very jobs EXIST BECAUSE OF A TAXPAYER BASE... Moreover - the government [their employer] exists in a world that has NO COMPETITION... Jobs are simply conjured into existence and the money to pay for those jobs essentially comes from the private (producing) sector... Theoretically - If you eliminate all government jobs, then the government workers would have to go out there and compete with the rest... I don't want to make too much out of that because MY POINT isn't to eliminate government jobs... Rather, it's to illustrate th economic distinction, and more precisely, to underscore the possible ATTITUDE that people who are earning a salary and benefits are biased & likely to use their VOTE in a way that benefits THEMSELVES rather than others...

If anyone thinks they are operating for the "good of humanity" they are probably delusional (even though it's good coffee table talk & the fodder of certain blog efforts)...

5. Public vs. private Debt... I'm tossing this out there because this (to me) appears to be a relatively new phenomenon... Actually, there are probably numerous examples throughout history (and I welcome someone to research that and point it out to me)... But I'm referring to this within the context of my own lifetime... So FOR ME (this is new)... I grew up in a world where until I was about 20, hardly anyone really used credit (save for a home mortgage, which you were required to put 20% down on)... Skipping ahead, that was all PRIVATE DEBT... In the, post 2008, "Obama/Peggy Joseph/Obama's gonna pay my gas & mortgage", change the accounting rules, QEx, world, it's apparent to me that the very concept of DEBT has become SOCIALIZED... IOW... There's really no problem anymore in racking up debt because somebody will come in and bail you out...

All the RAGE against BANKERS (after 2008 - which morphed into "tea partiers" gaining a voice in 2010), I think has been mis-interpreted... Sure, people are ANGRY at bankers... But if they were TRULY angry at the bankers, Wall St. would be up in flames by now... All the people REALLY want is a bone for themselves to chew on... So in PRACTICE, people have to give THEMSELVES a bailout...

This inevitably starts a feedback loop... People debt DEFAULTS, bad for banks, government "socializes" the debt by providing the banks with liquidity... It all just gets added to the national ledger... So people can exist for a long time under this feedback loop, because all they really worry about is their monthly nut (and they actually perceive the government as HELPING in this respect)...

6. Central Banking Policy... Look - This subject is waaaaaaaaaaaay down here #6... It is to underscore the notion that central banks DON'T CAUSE the money collapse (instead - they, like everything else, are just part of the process)...

At issue here is the notion of how the central bank acts in concert with all the elements above... Under the current system (to synthesize), we:

- Are a "culture" whose boogeyman is deflation/depression (read: avoid that at all costs)
- Have a system of politics where the "decision making politicians on budget issues" [USHOR] can get shuffled in and out every 2 years
- Having a GROWING polulation of citizens who rely on entitlements or social welfare to survive
- Have an "attitude" & willingness towards private DEFAULT (based on the 2008 experience)
- Have a system of BANKERS who encourage the politicians to simply SOCIALIZE the private debt and simply "run up the tab"

I'd construe that to be a society who have NOT chosen the AUSTERITY path to redemption... I'm not CERTAIN of that (but that's where I'm placing my bets)...

Logically, one should consider that hardly anything (almost "nothing", in fact) goes in a straight line... This is why I found the article linked earlier in this post so fascinating... Especially the PROLOGUE section of the depictions of Weimar Germany... In a nutshell, basically a 9 year period where "all appeared well" for much of it, only to suffer a catastrophic collapse in only a few short months (which then, was miraculously "cured" practically overnight)...

The thing that keeps ringing in my head is the following notion:

1. In a DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE the "bankers" lose...
2. In a HYPERINFLATION, the banks don't necessarily lose (Fed 2.0, coming in 2013?)... It is possible for certain individuals, groups, or industries to survive the episode and emerge at the other end... It is even possible for a system of entitlements to be re-booted ["New" New Deal or New Deal 2.0? - Confiscate all those 401ks and call them your patriotic "war bond" contribution to your Great Society - eh hell! we'll go ahead and start a war with some yellow or brown skinned people to REALLY drive home the point - Or, we'll turn up the HAARP antennaes and shake up the New Madrid Fault line]...

This is a "Nickleodeon" (huh huh, he said NICKLE) summary, but:

DEFLATION probably ultimately leads to war, a serious setback in progress, the end of the banking cartels, and the end of an era of GOVERNMENT being able to make a lot of "promises" to its people.

HYPERINFLATION leads to lifelong savers getting wiped out, but then the entire system basically gets RE-SET, and all those who were IN POWER before (or MOST of them), basically get to retain their power...

While it is abbhorrent to think that the MISDEEDS of a few should go unpunished, I've frankly resigned myself to the idea that that's the path we've chosen... NOT because they shouldn't be or nobody wants them to be, but instead because nowadays people are more willing to accept the "substitute" of getting something for themselves in the process...

It's an argument of "ants" versus "grasshoppers" (or LOCUSTS might be more appropriate definition)...

In a democratic society... The GRASSHOPPER party (notwithstanding a handful of "paper tea partiers") has more votes at the moment (and frankly - I think most politicians & central bankers are quite pleased about that)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Got my directions mixed up. Should've gone west instead of east.



SPX
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(55). Tested and passed the 23.6% retrace (1303.70). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1315.44). QE2infinity. "JBTFD" nuff said.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.40).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Still in the "some fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1437.70). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Held above 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3784).



LQD
Spinning top day. Tested but failed SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 109.22).




MUB
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.26). Still above the weekly 3LB mid.



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day (or start of morning star). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the 23.6% retrace (34.11). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.72).



WTI
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Failed to hold the 14.6% retrace (102.67). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.63).



SILVER
Bullish short day (failed to confirm bearish engulfing). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Well above upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.84).



BKX
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 51.86). Tested and held weekly 3LB reversal price.



Morning Corner (pt. 2) 3.11.11


 
Copper (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386



Last weeks candle looked like there was some indecision. This week cleared it up. It's weak as it's below the weekly 3LB mid. The question is whether there will be a reversal this week. If there is then that's the canary in the coal mine for stocks.



90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.090
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130



Weekly 3LB is finally making a confirming low. Looking at the daily chart yesterdays dive is further indication that the Fed will not touch rates. So QE2 will end and the Fed will keep ZIRP going.



Bear Analyst versus Ten Bullish Analysts...

Morning Corner 3.11.11

Oh no! There Goes Tokyo!







Copper (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386



Last weeks candle looked like there was some indecision. This week cleared it up. It's weak as it's below the weekly 3LB mid. The question is whether there will be a reversal this week. If there is then that's the canary in the coal mine for stocks.



90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.090
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130



Weekly 3LB is finally making a confirming low. Looking at the daily chart yesterdays dive is further indication that the Fed will not touch rates. So QE2 will end and the Fed will keep ZIRP going.



Bear Analyst versus Ten Bullish Analysts...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: No whiplash trading today. I had only one direction in store for the markets.



SPX
Bearish long day (resolved doji lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(55). Tested and failed the 23.6% retrace (1303.70). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1315.44). QE2infinity. "JBTFD" or TA from JA.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 76.40).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "some fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1437.70). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day (resolved doji lower). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Failed to hold above 1.3782 (fibo .09). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3784).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(55) & SMA(89). Failed its 38.2% retrace (40.28). Still below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21) & SMA(55). Still above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below the 23.6% retrace (34.11). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 35.72).



WTI
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Failed to hold the 14.6% retrace (102.67). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.63). Not really showing any weakness…yet.



SILVER
Bearish engulfing day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Well above upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.84).



TLT
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(55). Above lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 92.28). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



COPPER
Hammer day (color of day is opposite trend also). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(89). No tests of 0.0% retrace (4.6490). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 4.3640).



Morning Corner 3.10.11

EWZ Brazil ETF (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 75.27
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 75.27
rev= 71.75; mid= 73.51


It's been holding the lower trend line and staying above the weekly 3LB mid throughout the MENA troubles. Is this one of the new safe havens?



CYB China ETF (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48


Saviors of the world economy? As you can see it has been stuck in a very tight trading range since Dec 2010. It has yet to test its weekly 3LB mid since reversing down in Nov 2010. I'd watch this with binoculars.



Nikkei (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 10526.76
rev= 10842.80; mid= 10566.21


Japan is not doing too well either. Currently it is below its weekly 3LB mid and is also making a confirming low on the weekly chart. BANZAI!!!



Bear: "You want a piece of me? Come get some!"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Whiplash trading. My new way of affecting markets.



SPX
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Tested and held the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. "JBTFD" attributed to PT Barnum.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.89).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1414.00). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Holding above 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3784).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Failed its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Still above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Closed above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the 14.6% retrace (35.38). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.14).



WTI
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.63). Not really showing any weakness…yet.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test 0.0% retrace. Well above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.84).



EEM
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Holding above its 23.6% retrace (46.42). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 45.08).



Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.