I'll try to do a post on Monday or so, on brackets, but frankly, I already anticipate to NOT do anything very detailed for two main reasons:
1. In kicking it around with you people over the past years, I've discovered that a lot of you already KNOW a lot of things about college hoops... So unlike the intracacies of the NFL (which I can write volumes on), my "hoops" commentary tends to be of the generic kind...
2. In doing a quick PREVIEW (of what I think my picks will be), I've discovered that I'm likely going with "CHALK" this year (meaning: unlike last year, most of who is SUPPOSED to advance deep, I think, will in fact run deep)...
So what I'll end up doing (probably Monday or Tuesday evening), is do a post with mt RULES of picking teams to make deep runs (then "plug in" the teams that fit that criteria)...
So to otherwise fill up this post for the rest of the weekend, I've decided to present you all with a few thoughts (to go along with some reading material)... Regardless of what your "personal" feelings are towards the subject, it is NO DOUBT a fascinating subject, that will, most likely, not only have a PROFOUND effect on all of our lives, but also reverberate for many years... (So I suppose it's hard NOT to be interested in something like that... I'll start out with some reading material (which I believe is about as good of a 360 view on the experience, as any)... As always, the reader can draw their own conclusions...
Dying of Money
Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations
Jens O. Parsson
(1974)
Give me some credit for presenting this material on a WEEKEND... I realize that when I get in to this debate in the middle of a daily thread, some of you think that it clutters up the focus of "tick for tick" trading (and you're probably right about that)... So my effort here is to present the thoughts UNENCUMBERED by that distraction... Therefore, if you want to read about this, or offer opinions & add anecdotal evidence, here's your chance (as the last time I checked, the markets were closed - for maintenance - I hear because it seems that the computer cards SHUT DOWN every time a large volume sell-off invades the order channels)... OTOH - If you have NO OPINION on the subject (or think it's not relative to either your trading or everyday lives [both present & future]), well, then here's your Miranda warning (right to remain silent)...
To frame this subject... I'd prefer NOT to call it an INFLATION vs. DEFLATION debate (whether with regards to money supply theory OR "prices")... The simple reason is because they both come to the same ENDPOINT at some undetermined point in the future... That is why I think the title of the linked article "THE DYING OF MONEY" is appropriate (because in the end, you either kill it, or it kills you)...
All anybody probably needs to know is the ROAD that is traveled between here and there...
In considering the historic paths of these events, it appears to me that the following "psychologies" are probably important in determining the WILL OF THE PEOPLE to suffer one form of money collapse or another...
1. Sheer amount of monetary DEBT in the system (let's call that "a quadrillion dollars" in the present dollar denominated, dollar considered as reserve currency)
2. The EXPERIENCE your culture has in having dealt with one form of crisis or another (vis-a-vis the "boogeyman to Germans, perhaps is hyperinflation due to Weimar; whereas Americans have been schooled to think deflation/Depression are things to be avoided at all costs [well - that flash of electricity probably ignites somewhere in the brain for a millisecond somewhere in the flash time period for NCAA game to go to a commerical for Doritos & when the next awards show featuring Justin Beaver is going to air]...
In any case, my point is (metaphorically speaking), If you build your hime in a flood zone, and a flood comes and wipes you out, then the next time you might say "Hey - I'll take my chances with an EARTHQUAKE" (of course then an earthquake comes and sends tsunami waves crashing over your property so you die in a flood anyway - I'm not trying to be "funny" there in light of what's happening in Japan - just pointing out the ultimate tragic-comedy of our piddly human existence).
3. Political Will... YES political will... Not that politicians really "control" anything, but in a country like Amerika, we can toss an entire branch of government out on their asses every two years if we want... & we can blow the entire system up every 4 years... This is "whack a mole" at it's finest (which is an important criteria if you consider the WILL of a population to actually address the situation that ails them)... I've come to the conclusion that Americans have ZERO WILL... You could call it the "MTV Culture" (but that would make it sound like I was singling out a generation - which I'm not)... I'm referring more to the "I want it all & I want it now" mentality (of Americans)...
4. Promises... This is going to bleed in to #3 above 9and perhaps is one of the most important elements in the overall determination of what PATH will be chosen... Promises have to do with "populism"... IOW - the more people that are alive that have been PROMISED something (a "money" something, like payouts, benefits, etc.), the more HEADS there are to be considered who will be disaffected by the collapse of money... These people have a VESTED interested in keeping that money coming to them...
Each one of them have a VOTE (so in the 2 and 4 year cycles, as described in #3 - they will VOTE to keep their benefits... Even if they realize that by doing so, they are, in essence, looting the national treasury at the expense of other people)... People want to criticize BANKERS for acting in their own interests and operating in a way that only benefits themselves (and that is TRUE)... But it is also true for all government workers (who essentially PAY NO TAX - because their very jobs EXIST BECAUSE OF A TAXPAYER BASE... Moreover - the government [their employer] exists in a world that has NO COMPETITION... Jobs are simply conjured into existence and the money to pay for those jobs essentially comes from the private (producing) sector... Theoretically - If you eliminate all government jobs, then the government workers would have to go out there and compete with the rest... I don't want to make too much out of that because MY POINT isn't to eliminate government jobs... Rather, it's to illustrate th economic distinction, and more precisely, to underscore the possible ATTITUDE that people who are earning a salary and benefits are biased & likely to use their VOTE in a way that benefits THEMSELVES rather than others...
If anyone thinks they are operating for the "good of humanity" they are probably delusional (even though it's good coffee table talk & the fodder of certain blog efforts)...
5. Public vs. private Debt... I'm tossing this out there because this (to me) appears to be a relatively new phenomenon... Actually, there are probably numerous examples throughout history (and I welcome someone to research that and point it out to me)... But I'm referring to this within the context of my own lifetime... So FOR ME (this is new)... I grew up in a world where until I was about 20, hardly anyone really used credit (save for a home mortgage, which you were required to put 20% down on)... Skipping ahead, that was all PRIVATE DEBT... In the, post 2008, "Obama/Peggy Joseph/Obama's gonna pay my gas & mortgage", change the accounting rules, QEx, world, it's apparent to me that the very concept of DEBT has become SOCIALIZED... IOW... There's really no problem anymore in racking up debt because somebody will come in and bail you out...
All the RAGE against BANKERS (after 2008 - which morphed into "tea partiers" gaining a voice in 2010), I think has been mis-interpreted... Sure, people are ANGRY at bankers... But if they were TRULY angry at the bankers, Wall St. would be up in flames by now... All the people REALLY want is a bone for themselves to chew on... So in PRACTICE, people have to give THEMSELVES a bailout...
This inevitably starts a feedback loop... People debt DEFAULTS, bad for banks, government "socializes" the debt by providing the banks with liquidity... It all just gets added to the national ledger... So people can exist for a long time under this feedback loop, because all they really worry about is their monthly nut (and they actually perceive the government as HELPING in this respect)...
6. Central Banking Policy... Look - This subject is waaaaaaaaaaaay down here #6... It is to underscore the notion that central banks DON'T CAUSE the money collapse (instead - they, like everything else, are just part of the process)...
At issue here is the notion of how the central bank acts in concert with all the elements above... Under the current system (to synthesize), we:
- Are a "culture" whose boogeyman is deflation/depression (read: avoid that at all costs)
- Have a system of politics where the "decision making politicians on budget issues" [USHOR] can get shuffled in and out every 2 years
- Having a GROWING polulation of citizens who rely on entitlements or social welfare to survive
- Have an "attitude" & willingness towards private DEFAULT (based on the 2008 experience)
- Have a system of BANKERS who encourage the politicians to simply SOCIALIZE the private debt and simply "run up the tab"
I'd construe that to be a society who have NOT chosen the AUSTERITY path to redemption... I'm not CERTAIN of that (but that's where I'm placing my bets)...
Logically, one should consider that hardly anything (almost "nothing", in fact) goes in a straight line... This is why I found the article linked earlier in this post so fascinating... Especially the PROLOGUE section of the depictions of Weimar Germany... In a nutshell, basically a 9 year period where "all appeared well" for much of it, only to suffer a catastrophic collapse in only a few short months (which then, was miraculously "cured" practically overnight)...
The thing that keeps ringing in my head is the following notion:
1. In a DEFLATIONARY COLLAPSE the "bankers" lose...
2. In a HYPERINFLATION, the banks don't necessarily lose (Fed 2.0, coming in 2013?)... It is possible for certain individuals, groups, or industries to survive the episode and emerge at the other end... It is even possible for a system of entitlements to be re-booted ["New" New Deal or New Deal 2.0? - Confiscate all those 401ks and call them your patriotic "war bond" contribution to your Great Society - eh hell! we'll go ahead and start a war with some yellow or brown skinned people to REALLY drive home the point - Or, we'll turn up the HAARP antennaes and shake up the New Madrid Fault line]...
This is a "Nickleodeon" (huh huh, he said NICKLE) summary, but:
DEFLATION probably ultimately leads to war, a serious setback in progress, the end of the banking cartels, and the end of an era of GOVERNMENT being able to make a lot of "promises" to its people.
HYPERINFLATION leads to lifelong savers getting wiped out, but then the entire system basically gets RE-SET, and all those who were IN POWER before (or MOST of them), basically get to retain their power...
While it is abbhorrent to think that the MISDEEDS of a few should go unpunished, I've frankly resigned myself to the idea that that's the path we've chosen... NOT because they shouldn't be or nobody wants them to be, but instead because nowadays people are more willing to accept the "substitute" of getting something for themselves in the process...
It's an argument of "ants" versus "grasshoppers" (or LOCUSTS might be more appropriate definition)...
In a democratic society... The GRASSHOPPER party (notwithstanding a handful of "paper tea partiers") has more votes at the moment (and frankly - I think most politicians & central bankers are quite pleased about that)...
