WEEKEND EDITION - Happy 4th! Open Thread

Open Thread this weekend for anyone wanting to share their holiday celebrations (or anything else)...

I haven't heard any word yet from Andy on whether he will or will not be able to post anything for Sunday evening. Sunday night IS, after all, the 4th and I'm sure Andy has plans to be with his family and enjoy the fireworks (as well as many others)...


Andy always checks in beforehand so most likely he'll reveal his plans in this thread on what to anticipate (chartwise) over the weekend.


Remember, Monday is open market day in Europe and Asia (closed in the US)...


So in any case, there will be a Monday thread (back on markets)...


Have a great 4th people! :-)


CV

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

The creditcane has made landfall. It keeps trying to cause damage but the methane from the bulls has kept it in check.

SPX
Bearish spinning top day. So if yesterday was a hammer or takuri it was not confirmed. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) not tested. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1041.24). Trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. The hair (upper shadow) is saying it wants to go higher. Held weekly 3LB reversal price (barely). Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 85.69).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bullish piercing day. Back below the SMA(21) and above the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Held weekly 3LB reversal price. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1248.70).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Possible start of evening star? Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and failed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal still 1.2214).



JNK
Bullish long day (confirmed hammer). Tested the 23.6% retrace (passed). Still below the SMA(233) but above the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Hammer day. Trying to get a reversal going. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 133.44).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day (not a hammer because hair is >10% of H-L). Midpoint below EMA(10). Did not test 0.0% retrace (new 0.0% coming soon). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? YES. Is the Fed getting worried yet? HELL YES 3x.



WTI
Spinning top day. Possible start of morning star (again). Back below the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.94).



LUMBER
Bearish short day. Closed above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Couldn't stay weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 183.60).

Morning Audibles 7.2.10 - You're Fired!

NFP day... So it's time to break to break out the popcorn...

Who knows how the BLS will manage to fanagle this one?... As for CV, this "team" is the only I'm interested in seeing get pink slips...

Well one guy (the only one with ANY shred of credibility) already packed his bags... But come on! (BTW - Is it just me, or why does that photo op look like it was snapped inside a police interrogation room? Saving money on sets? Or a harbinger of things to come?)... 


Anyway, if the man in the "E-I-E-I-O" Suite needs any help on how to do a TEAM firing, this is how it's done!

But you'd have to toss in this guy as well...

That video is, at this point, ancient history, but it's needed in this moment as we are soon likely to hear the same person tell us why the next round of spending the wealth of future generations to feed his bosses ego is so necessary at this juncture...

To bring to further along the story line, here are the same two protagonists in another encounter:

 

For all the "non-PHD's" out there, I'd like the Chairman to explain the BREAKING NEWS: caption that is on the screen at the (2:31) mark... "Fed might respond by raising rates"...

Now... Can you jive that with this story?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-marks-maiden-lane-1-multi-year-highs-even-blackrock-strips-away-60-interest-rate-blowout

Namely, that BlackRock (custodian of the Maiden Lane 1 portfolio) is actively rolling off interest rate hedges...

Jan 29 Hedges

March 31 Hedges

"As the cost to roll and retain these hedges is negligible, especially since taxpayers are paying the cost of carry, this kind of lack of fiduciary prudence is cause for alarm. Either the Fed is convinced there is no chance in hell rates will ever go higher, or it is perfectly happy to risk impairing a $28 billion portfolio from a spike in interest rates."...

Further on the subject of Maiden Lane...


On April 2, 2008, Chairman Bernanke and "then" New York Fed President Timothy Geithner told senators that the tens of billions of dollars in “assets” the government agreed to purchase in the rescue of Bear Stearns Cos. were “investment-grade.”.

Now we find that some of these, namely HG-Coll Ltd. 2007-1A, were in fact CDO's and mortgage-backed bonds & that more than $40 million already had been reduced to less than investment-grade.

The law states the Fed is not permitted to lend unsecured. To anyone. PERIOD!

Per Sections 13 and 14, the Fed also can't buy anything without a full faith and credit guarantee.

It's probably going to take a PHD to explain to people how credit default swaps qualify under that (which is, of course why you have MAIDEN LANES in the first place). The Fed set these up and then "lent money" to them to dance around The Federal Reserve Act.

Forget about the "legality" of what is being done... Let's talk about the consequences of the custodianship... If they're trying to save a few pennies by not hedging the portfolio against interest rate hikes (which, with a FED FUNDS RATE near zero would mean that even a quarter point hike would blow the portfolio to smithereens), then it basically means that rates are on hold... FOREVER... (and probably "double secret QE2" is coming soon and frankly, has ALWAYS been in the cards)...

Of course this may not be all that sinister... One could re-establish these hedges at any given moment...

But it tells you something about how these charlatans operate...

Be careful out there!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

The creditcane has made landfall. Weakened by ground defenses. May hold off full wrath until holiday.

SPX
Bearish short day (hair>10%H-L so not a hammer). Not takuri because hair>10%H-L. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) not tested. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1073.69). Trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Held weekly 3LB reversal price. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 85.98).



Bearish short day which confirmed hammer. I'd say shooting star day but it didn't gap higher at open. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bearish long day. Back below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 1248.70).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1.2214).



JNK
Hammer day (risk is ready to be off? really?). Another evening star went supernova. Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed) and tested the 14.6% retace (passed). Still below the SMA(233) and SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
High wave day. wanted to start the month with a bang but failed. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 133.77).



10YR YIELD
Doji day. No long day preceding doji therefore no reversal signals. Midpoint below EMA(10). Did not test 0.0% retrace (new 0.0% coming soon). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? YES. Is the Fed getting worried yet? HELL YES.



DJ TRANS
Seems like all days are doji so no candle picks. Trading below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 6141.07).




LUMBER
Bearish short day. Closed above the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Gapped at open but closed lower. New high on daily 3LB (reversal still 177.90).

Morning Audibles 7.1.10

Sorry... I'm a little late this morning...


As expected, the Eurozone LTRO operation is turning into a nightmare... All CV can say is the FLASH CRASH I was predicting last week is turning into more of a controlled demolition...

Hey, aren't STATE budgets in the US due today also? I know, they're probably in the dumpster with the Federal Budget... Do they actually do anything in CONgress? Oh well, I guess the House passed FINREG overnight... Way to go Pelosi (rolls eyes)...

In any case, Mr. Market is basically saying... Keynesian experiment over... (So expect "double secret" QE2 to come along soon)... Boys - Get your PHD's out and ready to wave at us!

How do you think I'm gonna get along without you when you're gone? 

You took me for everything that I had and kicked me out on my own 

Are you happy? Are you satisfied? 

How long can you stand the heat? 

Out of the doorway the bullets rip... to the sound of the beat (Look out) 

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

The creditcane has made landfall. Destruction everywhere.

SPX
Bearish short day. Possible inverted hammer (I hope not). 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested twice (failed). Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1116.04). Trending down on daily 3LB. CONFIRMED the monthly 3LB reversal. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Still confirming bullish piercing. Midpoint above EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has held (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.23).



VIX
Takuri day (damn). Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). CONFIRMED the monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Did not even test the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is back in play. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2393).



JNK
Bearish long day (explains yesterdays volatility). Continuing the confirmation of evening star. Did not test the 38.2% retrace but did test the 23.6% retace (passed). Back below the SMA(233) and SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. The castle has been breached. Possible start of morning star...nope. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 142.56).



BP
Spinning top day. More MSM hype and it didn't go anywhere. Still above below the 0.0% retrace (using recent low). Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).



WTI
Spinning top day. Possible start of morning star. Back below the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.86).

Morning Audibles 6.30.10 - Let the CRAZY IVANS Begin!

Yesterday... With a TRIN of 5.88, CV basically has nothing to say except...

"Let the CRAZY IVAN's begin"... (Hey - It's damn near 4th of July weekend - right?)...

The baffles is the area in the water directly behind a submarine or ship through which a hull-mounted sonar cannot hear. This blind spot is caused by the need to insulate a sonar, commonly mounted near the bow, from the noise of the vessel's machinery.

Following a vessel by hiding in its baffles was a common submarine surveillance technique during the Cold War, which led to the tactics of "clearing the baffles". 

Variants of this technique include the "Crazy Ivan", a baffle-clearing manoeuvre intended to bring the followed submarine onto an attack heading and typically used by the Soviet Navy...

Seaman Jones: Conn, sonar! Crazy Ivan!
Capt. Bart Mancuso: All stop! Quick quiet!
[the ships engines are shut down completely]
Beaumont: What's goin' on?
Seaman Jones: Russian captains sometime turn suddenly to see if anyone's behind them. We call it "Crazy Ivan." The only thing you can do is go dead. Shut everything down and make like a hole in the water.
Beaumont: So what's the catch?
Seaman Jones: The catch is, a boat this big doesn't exactly stop on a dime... and if we're too close, we'll drift right into the back of him.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

The creditcane has made landfall. Batten down the hatches!

SPX
Bearish long day. Resolved spinning tops lower. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is history. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below 1041.83 (.1459 from high). Back below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (barely). New low on daily 3LB(reversal still 1117.51). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (1 more day). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Confirmed bullish piercing. Midpoint just below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has held (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 88.23).



VIX
Bullish long day. Back above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps." Still above the SMA(55) and above the monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79). Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (1 more day here also).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Safe haven I am. To me you come. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 1258.30).



EURUSD
Bearish long day (again). Midpoint below the EMA(10). Did not even test the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is back in play. Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1.2393).



JNK
Spinning top day (but more volatile). Evening star pattern CONFIRMED (look out). Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed) and the 23.6% retace (passed). Back below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day. Confirmed bearish engulfing. Possible start of morning star? Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).



BP
Bullish spinning top day. All of the MSM hype and it didn't go anywhere. Now above below the 0.0% retrace (using recent low). Still below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Start of morning star pattern? Midpoint below EMA(10). Did not test 0.0% retrace (new 0.0% coming soon). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 31.15). Can you say 2.0%? Yes. Is the Fed getting worried yet? Bernocchio shaking so much he can't think straight.



AAPL
Bearish long day. Broke below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Still above trendline using recent lows. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).