AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: They're deploying countermeasures to limit my abilities.

SPX
Bearish short day (was a long day until the last 20 min). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Tested and held the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.89). Needs a new number to contact Safety-Havens-R-US.



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1414.00). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Holding above 1.3782 (fibo .09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3805).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Failed to close above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the 14.6% retrace (35.38). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.14).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Well above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 33.83). Ring ring. Margin call.



WTI
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 98.10). Had a weekly 3LB reversal up.



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Above lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 92.40). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.10). Tested and held weekly 3LB reversal price.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.4.11

Yesterday's big sell-off was reversed. The 2y had touched 80 bps and promptly reversed and scooted down to 67 bps. For THE FUN.

Munis are weak again and we wouldn't go there if they were wearing a short dress and carrying a plate of chocolate chip cookies.

TIPS, MBS and EM bonds were all reasonably strong today. The charts for TLT are becoming a lot more constructive, as I am sure AR will demonstrate. Auctions ahead, so supply will lead to some weakness in 10y and 30y most likely. If Gaddafi pops his clogs or goes on a one way camel ride into the Sahara, the relief rally will hit Treasuries hard.

Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.28%; JNK -0.32%; HYG -0.21%
Govies: TLT 0.78%; IEI 0.57%; TIP 0.61%
Munis: IQI -1.10%; MUB -0.33%
Mortgages: MBB 0.28%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.27%; TBT -1.58%; EMB 0.50%

We stayed hedged in fixed income and we added some SPY. Crude is not in short supply, this spike is going to end, and when it does investors are going to BUY BUY BUY stocks, making it a great time to SELL SELL SELL. We still don't see a 4% 10y, not that we wouldn't love it. The weaker the auctions the better this week, we will be buying and would love to see a 3.65% 10y or a 4.75% 30y for example.

Morning Corner 3.4.11

After yesterdays butt whuppin' the bears need to relax and chill.

The USFedRes should be renamed the US "Haunted House"

The FOMC need to start "Walking" away from destroying the last vestiges of our economy...

Our monetary policies are killing what little value is left in our fiat currency...

and of course a complimentary chart to go with the last video:

DXY (weekly info)
new low 77.28
trend=down
low= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71



Last weeks indecision has been decided. And the decision was down. There are not many areas of support left to bounce from. Violate the upper trend line and the Nov 10 low comes into play. If that goes then the Nov 09 low becomes support. Not sure what may be support if QE3 happens.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

When it rains, it pours!

Creditcane™: Who put the wrong sign on the street?

SPX
Bullish long day (failed to confirm bullish thrusting). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and held the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed above daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.06). Needs to contact Safety-Havens-R-US.



VIX
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Still in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day (completed evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1414.00). Still above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above 1.3891 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. Held above 1.3782 (fibo .09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3741).



JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Back above its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Holding above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now above the 14.6% retrace (35.38). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.14).



CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 352.58).



TLT
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Above lower trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 92.44). Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



EEM
Bullish long day (plus it gapped higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89). Holding above its 23.6% retrace (46.42). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 44.83).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.3.11

Today was a risk-on day and even the numbers were eerily similar to yesterday. So, whatever we said yesterday, we say it again, bond bitchez.

Corpies: LQD -0.43%; AGG -0.35%; JNK 0.50%; HYG 0.36%
Govies: TLT -0.98%; IEI -0.56%; TIP -0.27%
Munis: IQI 0.17%; MUB 0.11%
Mortgages: MBB -0.36%
Specialty: ZROZ -1.92%; TBT 1.95%; EMB 0.00%

We remain hedged 15%, long F/I 29%, ahead of tomorrow's NFP just in case there was an absolute screamingly hot number. There won't be. Consensus is 180k, we'll take 145k or thereabouts. Expect yields to come in a bit maybe into the weekend and then rise again into next week's auctions.

Morning Corner 3.3.11

30 Yr T-Bond (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 121.906
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 121.906
rev= 117.938; mid= 119.922


The strength of last weeks reversal is wearing off fast. I guess holding the long bond is not the preferred option. If the large bond holders feel that higher yields are in order to hold US debt then expect this move down to continue.



NFLX (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 212.43
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 212.43
rev= 234.71; mid= 223.57


These are not the streaming movies you are looking for. Has a glitch appeared in the matrix? Is the glitch Amazon? When will Netflix have to pay for infrastructure? I'm old enough to remember running to the video store to get the new rentals. How time flies.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Go ahead. Keep on buying the dips. Like a funnel cloud sometimes I'm not on the radar until the last second.

SPX
Bullish thrusting day (failed to confirm bearish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Tested and held the 23.6% retrace (1303.70). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.41). Not the safety haven anymore?



VIX
Spinning top day (possible bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (possible start of evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1415.80). Well above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back above 1.3782 (fibo .09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3681).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back above SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 34.14).



LQD
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint at EMA(10). No daily 3LB (reversal is 108.13). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



MUB
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(89). No daily 3LB (reversal is 99.26). Still above the weekly 3LB mid.



WTI
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed back below the 14.6% retrace (99.41). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 95.42).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 33.30).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 53.10). Now below weekly 3LB reversal price.

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.2.11

A mild risk-on day and a big steepener. JNK and EMB were the winners. Long duration was steadily sold during the day. Claims tomorrow and then the MOST IMPORTANT NFP NUMBER IN HISTORY on Friday. Again.

Corpies: LQD -0.51%; AGG -0.18%; JNK 0.27%; HYG 0.00%
Govies: TLT -1.38%; IEI -0.25%; TIP -0.15%
Munis: IQI -0.08%; MUB -0.20%
Mortgages: MBB 0.00%
Specialty: ZROZ -2.29%; TBT 2.74%; EMB 0.13%

We are 29% long fixed income, and added to our hedge (15%).
Equity longs remain 17% divvys and 5% SPY.

We await the Ghaddafi demise relief rally.
"Suicide is painless, it brings on many changes..."

Morning Corner 3.2.11

Swiss Franc (weekly info)
new high 1.0774
trend=up
high= 1.0774
rev= 1.0064; mid= 1.0419



I guess we can see where some of the money is going for safety. Because it's not the dollar or it would have been much higher after yesterdays sell off. This and commodities are the new safe havens (for now).



TED Spread (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 0.2220
rev= 0.1490; mid= 0.1855



It's actually turning down. Really??? I want what they're smoking!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

The Bears had something to say about that first day of the month trade.

Creditcane™: Sometimes the obvious trade is the wrong trade. Keep stops tight.

SPX
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1340.43). Closed below daily 3LB mid. QE2infinity. JBTFD?



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Way below the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.66).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Back in the "complacent" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1401.10). Well above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Above all SMA's. Closed back below 1.3782 (fibo .09). No daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3534).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Back below its 50.0% retrace (40.47). Also still below lower trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.78).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Above its 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Closed above its weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still failing SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.61).



EEM
Bearish engulfing day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (45.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.48).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Back above upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.86).



XRT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.12).




RBOB Gasoline
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed back above the 14.6% retrace (2.96). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 2.87).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 3.1.11

A modest risk-off day, that included a POMO of 30y bonds. Despite the drop in equities, the only big winners today were IQI and TIP, as the oil scare continues to inflate the TIPS market, and the heat is off munis for the time being. All in all, this wasn't very bullish action in bonds. ADP tomorrow, claims and NFP lined up after that to bash fixed income in the nose, and then when all that is done, supply next week.

Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -0.48%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.29%; IEI 0.13%; TIP 0.58%
Munis: IQI 0.51%; MUB -0.19%
Mortgages: MBB 0.07%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.29%; TBT -0.56%; EMB 0.05%

We were sellers of AGG today, and put a hedge on.
Down to 29% F/I now. 8% hedge.
We bought some SPY (5%). We are short EURUSD (7%).
Go Bucky.

Although with Libya gurgling on we could be wrong, today smells like resistance for bonds, and we think there will be weakness from here into next week's auctions.