Weekend Edition - AFC/NFC Championships

Sunday (not Staurday), will be both the AFC & NFC Championship games... So, Saturday you Romans will have to contentent yourself with college hoops, and, um "politics" (as the case may be)...

Our Emperor, the mighty  Baruckus Obummus (otherwise known as Commodus II), has decided to enter the center ring of the Collisseum one more time to insure that all the attention of this grand spectacle is centered upon his hallowednesship, and not the games themselves...

He's come out in verbal support of the "Chicago Bears" (I suppose, geographically speaking, we can all understand why - but then why is he only so vocal about these Chicago teams?)... Why not the "Hawaii Warriors" (island of his, um, birth... or the Harvard Crimson... School of his, um, alma mater... What about the Kenyan whatever their mascot is, [presumably named after the "ringer" brought in to win this MASH 4077 football game])?...

Anyway - If the Bears win tomorrow, "the ball thrower outer in chief" has said that he'd be the first "sitting" POTUS to attend a Superbowl... Frankly, if it was me, I'd still just watch it in my MAN CAVE...

I mean, does the US taxpayer need to spend another couple of hundred million providing transportation & security detail for you, your family, & your "most melo's" to go to Dallas? What a waste of a fucking MAN CAVE!

Anyway - I'm going to add some "football thoughts" to this thread before Sunday, but I find myself a little backed up "chore wise" for an early Saturday morning... So my basic thoughts are the following:

I like the Packers to advance (nothing to do with Obama or Bears)... I'm "mixed" on who will advance between the Steelers & Jets (which makes it obvious that I'll be taking the JETS & the points)...

I'm probably going to do the HARDEST thing of all though... The PACKERS were CV's "preseason" pick to go to the Superbowl (my AFC pick, RAVENS, got knocked out last week)... I'm going to take the BEARS (and the points) in this NFC Championship...

Sunday, January 23rd

 Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (3:00 EST)

Line: Packers by 3.5

There were quite a lot of comments yesterday about the "perceptions" of this game and how it will play out... Add to that fire, the constant dissection of 'X's & 'O''s during the week and I'd say botht todays games have been fully sliced and diced...

Sportscasters really make me laugh... I swear... If I come back in a next lifetime (where the "Empire" has declined into the phase of BREAD & CIRCUSES 24/7 (like the "Romans" before us, and the "Americans" of today), I think the best JOB SECURITY (besides a politician or banker) would be a sportscaster... They're just there to re-inforce what you THINK you already know... All they do is make it "sound" a little fancier by tossing in a little terminology here or there...

If I hear Jaworski talk about "seeing the field clearly", or "going through his progressions", or, God forbid, hearing him say "National Football League" one more time, I think I'm going to throw my shoe through the TV set... Vegas should have an "OVER/UNDER" on the number of times Jaworski says "National Football League" on any given telecast... I'll be the linesmaker on that... Let's start with 10,000 (and I'm taking the "over")... Even worse is Merrill Hoge with his "FACTOR BACKS"... I swear... If Merrill Hoge is a commissioner of a fantasy football league, you can bet that the lineup configuration is 14 "factor backs" and a fucking kicker...

Anyway... What you HARDLY hear, ever... is talk about the pointspreads... I "miss" the 1970's (when CBS featured Jimmy "the Greek" Snyder with a pretty good look at the Vegas angle on games [Phyllis George - former Miss Texas & Miss America was pretty easy on the eyes too - jeez, I was only a teenager, but she was my first MILF crush even tho she was technically still a "Miss"])...

"The Greek", got kicked off CBS because of what was interpreted as some "racist" remarks (which I won't get into, but it was silly - even Irv Cross [also in the above foto had said he'd worked alongside Jimmy and never ever detected any racist attitudes or bias])... What's funny to me is, now, 30 years later (and 40 years after the civil rights movement), it would appear to me that people are more sensitive THAN EVER to "stereotypes"... Even on this blog... I try to say what I think... For example, I'm not a Michael Vick skeptic because he's black, I'm a skeptic because he killed and tortured dogs, spent some time in prison, and is now all of a sudden a megalo-superstar in the NFL... I think its too soon to make a judgement as to whether he's "changed" and can be a positive influence... Let's put it this way, I doubt he'll go back to killing dogs, but why? Because he discovered the profound ERROR IN HIS WAYS, or, because if doing that "costs" him from making $100 million dollars in the NFL?... His biggest fan... "The dog killer pardoner in chief"? I have no particular bias because of his race... But I DO (and did) take exception to his inexperience for the job he aspired to... & it's not so much that (because, really, NOBODY could ever think to have the experience ready to do a job like that)... But it is the "culture" of NOT TAKING RESPONSIBILITY that he brought to the office... Just when America was in the moment in time that everyone needed to lace their boots and get to work, INSTEAD, America elects this "primadonna" who is only infatuated with his own stardom, and has the instincts to BLAME everything on everyone else... Then, when his popularity wanes, what does he do? He latches on to guys like "Vick" (or the Bears), or anything that's in the media to divert attention from his shortcomings... As I'd mentioned once before... Where was Obama (on the Vick subject) during 2009??? Hmmm? Oh, well, the PUBLIC was mostly still AGAINST the eagles & Vick back then, so Obama was in "stay away" mode...

Anyway - I digress from sportscasters, and prognosticators... ESPN has this guy named 'Hammerin' Hank' (Greenberg) who, I suppose, does his best to be a Jimmy the Greek impersonator... I actually call him "HAMMERED HACK" (because his picks usually end up somewhere in the middle ground between Cramer - Leonard the Monkey - and Pin the Tail on the Donkey)... But at least he talks about the lines... The SWAMI (Chris Berman, of ESPN) comes out with picks in his "2 minute drill" (where he actually pro-offers a SCORE)... So at least someone who knows what the actual line of a game is can figure out which side Berman is on... I often actually LIKE Berman's calls (because he's not afraid to take underdogs - which most talking heads hardly ever do)... Jimmy the Greek (who goes way back) was once famous (legend has it), because he laid BIG MONEY on "Truman" defeating "Dewey" (and got 17:1 odds on it)...

So lastly... Forget about the 'X's' & 'O''s here... I hope (in my writings), that CV gives you a little deeper insight as to the murky underworld of sports betting... Anybody could tell you that the Packers have a potent offense and are on a roll... I'm looking for those "ticks on the tape" that DON'T fit the headlines... Here are a few for the Packers - Bears...

"THOUGHT ANGLES"

- The Bears are the No. 2 seed AND the winner of the division... But they're 3-point home dogs to a No. 6 seed... That's DISRESPECT (which can't help but to "filter in" to a players mindset)...


- The Packers could be overconfident... After last week, Vegas marked them with the shortest odds of "going all the way" (and winning the Superbowl)... Everyone EXPECTS them to win now... Rodgers, in his post-game press conference told all the reporters that he just had his best performance ever as a QB... It's VERY HARD to duplicate that in successive weeks in the NFL... Just saying... I'm not saying he's going to "stink it up" here... But when things fall from "firing on all cylinders", there's the potential for that to degrade into QUICKSAND (as most athletes will tell you)...

- Now consider this (on the QUICKSAND meme)... Teams coming off wins of 21-plus points in the playoffs are 4-9 against the spread in their next game since 2002... (edge BEARS)
- In the Bears-Packers rivalry, the Home Team has won 6 of the last 7 meetings. (edge BEARS)
- Packers are 28-14 ATS on the road under Mike McCarthy. (edge PACKERS)
- Jay Cutler is 25-42 ATS. (edge PACKERS)

I'm going to go with the Packers winning this game and advancing to the Superbowl... But I'm going to take the BEARS (and 3.5 points) for (2 units)...

 New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (6:30 EST)

Line: Steelers by 4 (line moved from 3.5)

Before I get to making a final pick on this, a few notes... The line has moved from the Steelers giving 3.5 to the Steelers giving 4... 56% of the money was already on the Steelers (so this phenomenon is described as Vegas "chasing" the line)...

Vegas doesn't always CHASE the line... In fact, CV's "favorite" betting angle is when about 70+% of the money is on a FAVORITE, then Vegas moves the line down (effectively - giving you less incentive to take the dog, as it wants money piled up on one side)... You can almost be SURE that something shady is doing on (but it normally happens on games of no consequence)... That is hardly the case here...

The OTHER reason you get line movements is to protect the TEASER scenarios... In a two team teaser, someone can move the line 6 points in either direction... If that happens, there are no PUSH scenarios... IOW, by moving the line to STEELERS (-4), if you decide to put the Steelers into your tease (thus - taking the Steelers (+2)... You're going to LOSE the entire tease if you win the other gane (Bears - Packers), and the Jets win 9-7 here... (Before, you'd have had the STEELERS +2.5 in that scenario, and won your tease)...

This makes me think that Vegas thinks that this is going to be a close game... Remember - I'm not saying that this (or any games) are "fixed"... I'm just talking of the probability of occurrence...

So let's say there's an 80% chance that this game will be closely contested... Perhaps there's a 5% chance also that Mark Sanchez tosses 3 picks in the first quarter and the Steelers are up 3 scores by halftime... But football is funny... Last week, the Ravens were up 21-7 against the Steelers at halftime (as 3.5 point dogs)... They turned the ball over 3 times in the 3rd quarter!!! And they were NOT a particularly "turnover happy" team... Flacco had hardly tossed any picks for the previous 10 weeks, and Ray Rice had not fumbled all year... Funny things happen in football...

I also like to look at POTENTIALS... The "potential" Super Bowl Matchups are as follows...

Green Bay - Pittsburgh

Green Bay - Jets

Chicago - Pittsburgh

Chicago - Jets

NONE of those presents a particularly lopsided wagering angle for the Superbowl (UNLESS, say, Green Bay "blows out" the Bears here... In which case, they'd most likely be OVERVALUED for the SuperBowl as they are so modestly here)...

It would probably go something like:

Green Bay (-2) vs. Steelers

Green Bay (-4) vs. Jets (remember - the Packers beat the Jets in the regular season in NY)

Steelers (-2) vs. Bears

Bears (-2) vs. Jets (Bears beat Jets on a snowy day in Chicago during regular season)

When viewed from that lens, it's likely that ANY combination would likely attract somewhat even money (or - anything WITHIN a 60% - 40% ratio)...

So what I'm saying is... CALL 'EM AS YOU SEE 'EM... Vegas is most likely just happy taking the VIG from here on thru...

THOUGHT ANGLES

- The Jets won in Pittsburgh this year (but remember - Troy Polamalu wasn't playing)... In "same-site" rematches in the playoffs, Since 2002, the victors are 17-10 straight up; 4-2 if we're talking about a road winner... (edge JETS)

- Rabid Dog Trend: Teams coming off a straight-up win in the playoffs as underdogs of seven or more (as Jets were to Patriots last week), are 6-2 against the spread the following week since 2002... (edge JETS)

- The Steelers aren't built to blow out good teams... Results against ALL of the playoff teams they've battled this year: Won by 6 over Atlanta; lost by 3 to Baltimore; lost by 10 at New Orleans; lost by 13 to New England; won by 3 over Baltimore; lost by 5 to the Jets; won by 7 over Baltimore... (edge JETS)

- Jets are 13-7 ATS on the road since 2009... (edge JETS)

- Jets are 10-5 ATS as underdogs since 2009... (edge JETS)

- Steelers are 23-9 ATS in December home games since 2000... (edge STEELERS)

- Ben Roethlisberger is 8-3 ATS in the playoffs (5-2 as a favorite)... (edge STEELERS)

I'm going to go with the JETS for (3 units)...

---

If someone wants a more limited risk exposure (and wanted to get action on BOTH games), I'd consider a BEARS - JETS tease... You'd be getting...

BEARS (+9.5)

JETS (+10)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Well I took some steam out of that hot air balloon. It still wasn't enough. I have more work to do.

SPX
Doji day (not a good completion of a morning star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.28).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 15.41). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (start of morning star?). Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Well below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1385.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Passed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Now above SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3370). Had a weekly 3LB reversal up.



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (not really in an uptrend so no bearish harami). Held above the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 5212.60). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.




CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).




XLF
Spinning top day (confirmed bullish harami…go figure). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Closed above 23.6% retrace (11.68). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Old guard: Must prove MW wrong!!!!!!!!

Morning Corner 1.21.11

EEM (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65


This move in EEM seems to have petered out. When the weakness returns in the US will EEM be able to pick up the slack? Or will they lead the way?



* Maybe Meredith Whitney was right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln

Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens

Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

Read more...


* The end is near (stock market, BB's & TG's job, muni bond holders, etc)...

SPY (60 min - 10 weeks)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I came. I saw. But I didn't stay. Maybe tomorrow.

SPX
Doji day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 81.01).



VIX
Bullish short day (tail too long for shooting star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested but failed SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 15.41). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Now below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2929). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Dragonfly doji day (refuses to go higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. The 14.6% retrace at 33.86 was tested and passed. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Held above upper trend line.



XLF
Bullish short day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Closed above 14.6% retrace (11.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).



MUB
Bearish short day (a hanging man already?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).



2s30s Spread
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.63).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.20.11

After Matthew's description of the fixed income market above, further commentary from us would be superfluous....

Corpies: LQD -0.43%; AGG -0.38%; JNK 0.03%; HYG -0.20%
Govies: TLT -1.38%; IEI -0.44%; TIP -0.95%
Munis: IQI 3.10%; MUB -0.04%
Mortgages: MBB -0.26%
Hedgies: TBT 2.54%

We added 2% of TLT.

As of now we are HYG 17% LQD 3% AGG 10% TIP 5% TLT 4% (FI = 39%)
Equity longs are 14%, and we have a 3% widowmaker in play.

Morning Corner 1.20.11

BAC (weekly info)
new high 15.25
trend=up
high= 15.25
rev= 13.06; mid= 14.16



Not to promising having a bearish harami confirmation two days before earnings. Could it be a head fake? Will they reduce loan loss provisions? Will they come clean about defective MBS's? Will the MSM ever ask them the hard questions? Ignore the truth and BTFD?



Currency Comparison
% change of currencies and gold from January 2007 to present. Most currencies seem to have flatlined while gold continues higher.





As the Superbowl approaches sometimes you realize "It's good to have a ring"…

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight! Fight!

Creditcane™: Funny what a few double expressos can do for a Creditcane sighting.

SPX
Bearish long day (completed evening star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1276.56). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still below SMA(144), SMA(21), SMA(55) and now SMA(89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 81.01).



VIX
Bullish long day (confirmed homing pigeon). Midpoint at EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Back above the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day (resolved doji higher). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Back above SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.2929). Above the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed to hold SMA(55). Still can't close gap post dividends. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. The 14.6% retrace at 33.86 was tested and failed. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Held above upper trend line.



CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).



XLF
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 16.72).



IQI
Bearish short day (failed bullish piercing confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30).



MUB
Spinning top day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (97.24). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Held lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.19.11

The big market yawned today for the most part while the yappy little market was taking a downward excursion for the first time since the Dickensian era. (We know the ladies like Dickens).

Moves of note today were a modest flattener from yesterday's record 401 bps 2s30s spread in the YC and a move into safety in the muni market with MUB up and IQI down. Think of the muni spread widening and I think you can identify a trend. The MUB/IQI ratio is like the LQD/HYG ratio.

Corpies: LQD -0.07%; AGG 0.02%; JNK -0.15%; HYG -0.31%
Govies: TLT 0.72%; IEI 0.12%; TIP 0.04%
Munis: IQI -1.24%; MUB 0.16%
Mortgages: MBB 0.22%
Hedgies: TBT -1.38%

We did nothing in fixed income but were jolly amused by our equity hedging performance, and added a small widowmaker for fun.

Carry on, chaps.