AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish LONG day. A marubozu day. Blew through 1110.02 (fibo .09) as if it wasn't even there. Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. Now below the 233 SMA (1078.58). Also below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1165.87. Trending down on the daily 3LB. Making new weekly low and below monthly 3LB reversal price. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Confirmed dark cloud cover. Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bullish long day. Fear of the truth about economy getting out. Closed above the 38.2% retrace. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 24.91. Trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Broke through the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. "Ring ring. Hello? This is your margin call. Sell whatever you have to." To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1243.10.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Confirmed bullish engulfing. Midpoint still below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Also tested the .1855 fibo of 1.2336 and passed. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bearish long day. Risk off and hurry. Now below the 0% retrace and below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 39.38.



GS
Bearish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Well below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 (oh yeah it's coming). Note: All MA's are still pointing down. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 142.32.



AAPL
Bearish long day. Tested and then closed below the 55 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 270.83).

188 comments:

I-Man said...

Marubozu!!!

Mannwich said...

Getting downright hairy out there. Time to buy the "correction"? ;-)

Snapback rally has to be coming, right? Right?

Nic said...

Man the futures are still falling. See what Asia does with this mess DL
I see today is being dubbed the "Euro-crash" because of where it started.

TWSWB said...

Days like this are just so much market noise. The Big Picture remains unchanged, and I may share it with you hoi polloi in a few months if I feel charitable.

AmenRa said...

I swear the bulls kept trying to shake out the shorts. But the shorts stood strong. I'm getting a feeling that getting out of positions before the weekend may start at the opening bell.

AmenRa said...

and Trin stayed around 2.00 or higher all day. It's funny how you can see the squeeze coming when NYSE Tick starts taking out its high.

BinT said...

Hey, TWSWB,

Your momma!

Mannwich said...

It seems to me that during the flash crash HFT's had it right, no? We're almost at that level now, are we not?

CV said...

@TWSWB

Pardon me but do you have any GREY POUPON?

AmenRa said...

and who brought up that they were talking about SPX May 1050 Puts in the pit? Well they were right. It had the 2nd highest volume at 93k. The 1100 Calls were #1 with 115k in volume (most likely writing them).

CV said...

@Amen

A can of "whup ass" has been opened...

Sure we'll eventually get a bounce...

May come at 932 though... :-)

CV said...

@Amen

That was Mr. Topstep (1050)

AmenRa said...

Damn the SPX July 900 Put is up 10.4 today. Should have grabbed that yesterday at the close.

CV said...

@Amen

You may not be too late...

If Germany does something weird over the weekend, we could be below 950 on Monday...

I'm beginning to entertain the idea...

BinT said...

CV:

I think Germany is genuinely and truly stuck here. Think about it for a second. They passed a balanced budget amendment to the constitution last year that by law (like New Jersey) they have to have a balanced budget by 2016.

They are the strongest member of the EU. They have agreed in principle to bail out Greece. They know this is nonsense.

Merkel is feeling trapped. She is being pulled in both directions and Germans are outsourcing their monies.

Now what does Germany do? What do they do? Damn the European Union or damn the country?

Probably will get more interesting........

BinT said...

I will check when I get back....

Nic said...

I don't see how they are going to walk away from the EU, Germany is the only one who truly benefits from it. Merkel's problem is the banks and agreeing to bailout Greece and the stupid naked short ban and CDS ban are still all about propping up German banks. She knows that bailing them out would be the final nail in her political coffin.
She really is between a rock and a hard place.

CV said...

@Nic

Meanwhile... Americans are between "Barack" and a hard place...

CV said...

Harry Wanger...

Always the man with the timely trade...


by HarryWanger
on Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:48
#363935


I'm doing what I can. Like I said yesterday, I sold everything the first dip below 1110 and bought SDS at 33.15. Looks like I'll be in this trade for quite some time. The future's looking pretty awful right now.

Login or register

DL said...

"Sure we'll eventually get a bounce...
May come at 932 though".

* * * * * * *

Yeah, if we don't get a decent bounce by Monday (or at least stabilization at current levels), I'll have to admit that the situation is worse than I thought.

DL said...

CV @ 6:41

That's not bad. You come up with that?

Mel said...

@DL

What's not bad is:

"Lotta comments today, and everyone deep, deep, deep...still chuckiling over that one.

However, I'm surprised no one has touched on Joey Heatherton in Gartley Belts and nylons

CV said...

@DL (6:41)

Come on man...

Somebody blurted that one out, I'm sure, on 11/4/08 (and likely before)...

So while I can't give CREDIT to whoever was the original author...

I'm pretty sure it wasn't me...

CV said...

@Mel

CV has decided that THE ANTICIPATION OF JOEY HEATHERTON is the underlying thing that's causing turmoil in the markets...

Traders can't focus... Central Bankers are at ends... Politicians are in a daze (well, that's not exactly new - but it's exacerbated)...

So therefore, I've decided that I'm keeping Joey Heatherton ON ICE as the ultimate tease...

The Kracken failed...

Joey Heatherton? - Now she's as good as gold!

A shrine is being built... Cement is being poured for the foundation as we speak...

Nic said...

MrTopstep & optionmonster.
In addition to Mr Topstep they produce a vix video every day - see here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ae8LDD3ckRo
and an "ETF super pit hit"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNwiCmyf0bk

If you subscribe to optionmonstertv here and select the box to be emailed when there are new uploads you see them as they come out:
http://www.youtube.com/user/optionmonstertv

Nic said...

Are you guys watching the futures? Spoos is a smidge off the flash crash lows and just grinding slowly into it.

Mel said...

Actually CV...I met Joey backstage at the Mike Douglas show in the mid-
seventies...she's a nice girl...or was.

CV said...

@Nic

I sure am watching it...

& I'm still trying to figure out what to make of it...

Apparently, there's a huge size wall right at 1070 on the ESMO's... That getting hit could trigger another FLASH CRASH...

(only this time we might be talking 930-950)...

But that size wall moves back and forth as the algos dictate. But nobody can hit it because the algos will out jump you, or cross to a different exchange.

So if you try to crunch that outcome with:

- CB intervention in the Euro
- OPEX tomorrow
- unwinding of carries
- surefire meetings over the weekend

and everything else...

It's hard to make heads or tails out of anything...

Now toss in this... Rumor has it that GOLD is being crammed down because the May contracts expire on Monday and there's NO PHYSICAL TO DELIVER if those contracts ever got called in...

Jump u f'ers!

CV said...

@Mel

That's cool... I know you're a drummer... I knew the piano player for Suzanne Sommers Vegas act...

I went up to see her opening and she was as nice as could be (and this was backstage - 'calmly' just minutes before her show was to start)... She invited me to her private party, and even when I got there to the (expecting to not know anyone), she came by and introduced me to everyone...

Unbelievable!

zorba said...

Dow 10k hats anyone? Futures down to 9,996.

CV said...

@zorba

Click on MY avatar and take a closer look at my hat...

AmenRa said...

Don't you just love how the low held until the final 5 minutes? Once it was broken we entered freefall. Some shorts were shaken out with that final push through 1090 at 2:55 est.

Anonymous said...

Nic,

You've got some kick-ass sites. Where's
Soros?

CV said...

@Nic

OptionMonster?

That doesn't mean I have to see Najarian "foaming at the mouth"... DOES IT?

zorba said...

@CV
Cool Hat!

Any thoughts on how deep is this "correction" going to be? I tend to feel that the PPT is going to jump in anytime...

McFearless said...

The PPT? lol, give me a break.

DL, from the other thread:

"Which is worse, oil company executives, or investment banking executives?"

What's the difference?

Being away for the close really sucked today, I'll leave it at that.
Would love to see what AT thinks about today's action, the 3 of 3 count should still remain on the table, though I didn't love the action today as a third wave. If it is we will see the dow at 8,500 before this move is over. The problem is as AT pointed out A=C and that also could be valid....

In any event, all the Johnny Techs out there are likely looking hard at the 200 day and it is going to worry them.

AmenRa said...

OT: Did anyone notice that the sell off happened after the Senate voted to stop debate and bring the financial reform bill up for vote?

McFearless said...

I see Friz showed up today. Friz, I have clients that did that too,recommended months ago to protect the 401k.....just wasn't important to a few people. I got a call today from one...."should I sell now"


GIB.....

McFearless said...

EWI had this to say tonight:

"Unless the market opens sharply higher tomorrow, we will give the benefit to the immediate downside."

bob said...

Nic, was just wondering what you were watching today.

Had to get a few hours of sleep, was seeing crosseyed. That's a great looking close...

AR, just normal lobbying, lol

McFearless said...

@Nic,

how bout silver....not bad for a few days of drop.

You have any specific targets in mind at this point?

call me ahab said...

wow- what a day- and I am not even talking about the market-

Ra- dude- I think people just want out- and get their cash-

I thought Roubini's advice was pretty level headed advice for any small investor-

also- realtor acquaintance's have been saying the RE market has really slowed down-

and I feel like saying- NO SHIT!!!!

Permits were the tell on where we are going in that regard

McFearless said...

Dan has a nice chart of NYMO tonight, extreme has now broken anything during P1. Interesting stuff. A lot of the indicators we all follow will become useless in P3, there will be no historical examples....

McFearless said...

met tonight with the staffing company CEO, he has been telling me for months that temp hires were strong yet no perm hires and he isn't hearing plans for them either. He basically told me the same thing tonight but that it was slower than before recently. Primary clients are financials.

Another interesting thing, met with another client that is an Energy Analyst originally from India. He came here and has two degrees from Wharton, does very well for himself now...smart guy, really nice, two kids. He's considering going back home....

We have some readers here from India, wonder what they think about that?

McFearless said...

And finally, AAII:

May 20: 41.30% 25.00% 33.70%
May 13: 36.60% 26.80% 36.60%


Bulls/Neutral/Bears

CV said...

@zorba

I frankly have no IDEA... Read my (7:36)...

The Chicago pits were talking NO PROBLEM they're gunning for 1050 SPX...

Here's a candid view of levels as I see them... (SPX wise)...

1070 - TD&ZH are warning that there's a huge "size wall" there... If it gets taken out in the cash, watch out below...

1065 - Flash crash LOW PRINT (seems irrelevant now)

1050 - The Chicago pits seem to love that number

1044 - The February low (with the "forces that be" may prove to be an irrelevant number as well)

1042 - The .1457 FIBO extension from 1219.80... EW'ers & fibo freaks (like me) are keen to this number

1000 - purely psycological

972 - the number CV tossed out during the January correction but was never hit... People who write and comment on other blogs and spend most of their time remodeling bathrooms and calling me the "Uni-bomber" were quick to point that out to me in order to gain favor with their now departed readers...

956 - That was the summer '09 previous high (may act as somewhat of a H&S)...

- (a .2357 fibo extension from 1219.80)... This would mean the market has done more than a 20% correction... Many pundits would say that we're now in "BEAR MARKET" territiory (as if we were ACTUALLY in a bull)... Whatever...

And in the end...(not on THIS go around)...

Sure - we get to 840 on 2010...

We take out the March 2009 lows of 666 in 2011/12...

Unless Bernanke & Obama 'huddle up' and put their genius Harvard intellects to the task of PRINTING a "blabillion" dollars...

So then we can have DOW 36,000! Yay!

Problem is, a loaf of bread will then cost you that much (and a wheelbarrow to carry all that loot to the store to buy it will be out of your price range)...

But you won't have to worry about that happening, because the very second bread is priced out of the range of the poor folks who don't own stocks like you do gets beyond the FREE MONEY that the government gives them...

Those people will put a bullet into BOTH of their asses...

Thus concludes History 101...

bob said...

One thing that is really bothering me- at some point all of the capital flight from europe and elsewhere should at least buy some equities.
30 year T now at 4.10, dow utils yielding 4.57 with a 12 PE.

call me ahab said...

I thought it was interesting that- futures- ugly as they were-

got cemented in when the leading indicators declined and the UE claims spiked-

perfect storm?

I have been waiting for that occur- worsen- not improve-

came sooner than I expected-

and wasn't it very recently that the ECRI said that things would slow down-

but no double dip?

I wonder what their thoughts are now?

CV said...

@McF (8:14)

Classic!

It's a TOTAL GIB... I dispense with the same FREE advice to close friends (and have since 2007)...

They all think I'm a nutcase... I got about 2 dozen e-mails today (wanting to know what to do)...

I told everybody I was DONE babysitting!

BinT said...

Well, I had two Pacificos and Mexican food.


.....I win! However my typpping skolls have deteriorated.some.

call me ahab said...

and this headline cracks me up-

"Fading of inflation helps buyers and borrowers"- Yahoo Finance

of course- makes sense I guess- for instance- inflation was pretty tame during the Great Depression- lol

AmenRa said...

For tomorrow:
5/20/10 close 1071.59

fibo - up - down
.01459 - 1087.22 - 1055.96
.0236 - 1096.88 - 1046.30
.0382 - 1112.52 - 1030.66

CV said...

@bob (8:33)

Um... NOT EXACTLY... (at least today)

http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=geo

CV said...

@BinT

Are you sure it wasn't the 'Joey Heatherton' factor? :-)

CV said...

@ahab

LOL... Yeah, just think how that helps you out in the SOUP LINE...

No inflation and your Free Bowl of Soup is HALF PRICE!

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Merkel-calls-for-tough-steps-apf-3578849120.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble rejected criticism, saying various European nations had short-selling curbs in place before, some of which hadn't expired.

He said Germany was acting in anticipation of broader European action and also wanted to show, as it debates the rescue package, that "we're not just talking, we're acting."

"I believe in the saying that if you want to dry out a swamp, you don't necessarily ask the frogs if you want an objective verdict."

Markets didn't like it."

...Yes, the Krauts have stooped to calling the French "frogs"....I knew it would happen!

Tomorrow we hear "Jack-booted thugs" from Versailles!

(Actually I think this was a Freudian slip, but he was Austrian, so that don't count....)

CV said...

@ahab

Put a Vegas Line up on the ECRI ever calling for a "double dip"...

Hell, I'd take ANY line that I could arbitrage the loan differential to INFINITY...

BinT said...

Joey Heatherton...what did she look like again?

(Hint................)

call me ahab said...

speaking of Joey Heatherton-

http://davebyers.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/joey_heatherton01.jpg

I remember her on the talk shows when I was a kid- and I was thinking- not too shabby(-:!!!!

CV said...

@BinT

The scary thing is I have the Playboy fotos...

CV said...

Here's the 1/8th view...

http://static.squidoo.com/resize/squidoo_images/-1/lens1514319_1227303791JoeyHeatherton1.jpg

call me ahab said...

CV- free bowl of soup half price!!!!

that's a great deal- I was at an all you can eat buffet for $5-

and I gave the hostess $10 and said I would take two all you can eat buffets-

I mean really- how can you pass that up(-:!!!

CV said...

See... What you people don't know is that Joey Heatherton was also a financial GENIUS...

Way back in 1971, she was cojoling people to INVEST WISELY in this asset class...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU_rvR_wZGs

CV said...

So many ways to get the PERFECT SLEEP that people don't know about... :-)

Nic said...

McF
Silver is at the bottom of my channel now so I have taken a bit of profit off here and will add on bounces or breaks.
It might sound dumb but I keep expecting the dollar to have a deeper correction, or I am wary of it. I am kind of planning to add more short on a bounce to around 18.50 and next target 16.25

McFearless said...

ahab,

re: ECRI, I commented on that infallible crew today, the remain with that call, Rosenberg noted a few days ago that smoothed ECRI is at a 40 week low.

call me ahab said...

CV-

dude- that's like early 70' for sure- I was expecting Earth Wind and Fire to break out in a chorus

call me ahab said...

b22-

sorry dude-

I try my best to wade through the comments- but CV attracts so much attention w/ this blog-

I have to skim through- and miss a lot I'm sure

Anonymous said...

FT.com/Asian exporters rattled by euro turmoil.

"Europe's economic crisis is having a severe impact on Asian companies as the depreciation of the euro makes exports from Asia more expensive".

Solar companies down.
Miners like Rio Tinto etc. down.
revaluation fo the renminbi delayed.

"Goldman Sachs, for example is forcasting a recovery in the euro from $1.23 to $1.35 in the next 3 months ...".

Last part is for CV, since he loves GS's forcasts on the Euro/USd. LOL.

CV said...

@ahab

Joey H hit her prime way before EW&F...

Hell - they probably took their inspiration from her...

CV said...

@ahab

& I don't ATTRACT attention so much as I DISTRACT attention...

call me ahab said...

anon-

that's what kills me about forecasts and expectations-

there has to be something to cling to- some amount of expectation that things will remain stable enough to expect a turnaround-

I mean really- would you bet heavily on the ruble when Soviet tanks are descending on Moscow-

contrary indicator and all

bob said...

CV,

All I am trying to do is to start to pay attention to these things again. Would I buy utils? No way in hell, I have exactly what I want right now.

CV said...

@anon

"Solar Companies Down"...

Go tell that to Leo at ZH...

FWIW... I'm on board with a "mini-bounce" on EUR-USD to, perhaps 1.27 (a tad lower if I recall)...

But it's eventually going to:

- 1.18 (where it started)
- 1.15 (next fibo)
- parity
- zero

call me ahab said...

CV-

so when was that commercial done? Had to be early 70's-

dude I grew up in the 60's and 70's-

and that outfit she had on looked early 70's

CV said...

@bob

On that note... (look closer)...

NTT (Japan) was green... LOL :-)

CV said...

@ahab

It was early 70's (about 1971)...

But EWF had their first hit album in 1975...

call me ahab said...

I like this thought-

- 1.18 (where it started)
- 1.15 (next fibo)
- parity
- zero

break up- individual currencies?

makes sense though- I don't see the EU as a real future country-

much like Yugoslavia was always ready to bust apart at any moment

bob said...

I saw that, HH has a CDS them?

CV said...

@bob

In a convoluted way... It ALL makes sense...

call me ahab said...

CV-

ahhhhh- I was just pulling that out of my ass-

but if I said Superfly was about to bust out on the stage-

no way I'm not right on that

CV said...

@bob

CV thinks that's what EFFICIENT MARKETS truly means...

IOW - No one is capable of comprehending the ABSOLUTE CONVOLUTED-NESS of the inter-twinings of capital markets until TSHTF...

CV said...

@ahab

Who? Curtis Mayfield?

bob said...

I said back in 2008 when the bank stocks and bonds were crashing that the biggest buyers of stock were probably the bond holders...

See, there is still some equity left....

CV said...

I'd have to check on that, but it seems off the top of my head that "Shaft" (Isaac Hayes) was somewhat parallel and came out in 72-74... or thereabouts...

McFearless said...

ahab,
lol, and no prob,

Nic,

good discipline there with silver, and I'm with you on the dollar near term, though I'm a big dollar bull the next few years.

CV said...

@bob

Little did we all know that the biggest buyers would turn out to be the American taxpayer...

Thanks Barry Dunham! for forcing us to buy worthless junk...

CV said...

@ahab

But think about it... Here we're talking about '71...

I WAS going to do a Joey Heatherton thread today... NO LIE...

S&P closed on "71...

weird

Nic said...

Bob
I had a day at lawyers and then got my hair done. Spent most of the time surreptitiously watching news feeds and markets on my blackberry. Very tedious and annoying.

bob said...

We didn't get the equity, that might be worth something someday, they used the "fact" that the equity was still worth something to justify paying near par for the debt.

assets=liabilities(debt)+equity

Lloyd to Tarp-

But the equity is still trading above zero, that is proof that the debt is good.

bob said...

Nic,

That squeeze on the EUR was really fun to watch, that was the best part of my day.

AmenRa said...

Updated the SPX chart after adding a trendline using the 2/5/10 and 5/6/10 lows. The trendline is around 1069.50. That gets broken then all hell is gonna break loose.

CV said...

From ZH...

Mr. "I've never run so much as a DAIRY QUEEN in my life" has now decided it's time to tinker around with aircraft carrier units...

US Begins Massive Military Build Up Around Iran, Sending Up To 4 New Carrier Groups In Region

As if uncontrollable economic contagion was not enough for the administration, Obama is now willing to add geopolitical risk to the current extremely precarious economic and financial situation.

Over at Debkafile we read that the president has decided to "boost US military strength in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf regions in the short term with an extra air and naval strike forces and 6,000 Marine and sea combatants."

With just one aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran, the Nobel peace prize winner has decided to send a clear message that peace will no longer be tolerated, and has decided to increase the US aircraft carrier presence in the region by a 400-500% CAGR.

From Debka:

Carrier Strike Group 10, headed by the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, sails out of the US Navy base at Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21. On arrival, it will raise the number of US carriers off Iranian shores to two. Up until now, President Barack Obama kept just one aircraft carrier stationed off the coast of Iran, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower in the Arabian Sea, in pursuit of his policy of diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

For the first time, too, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command.

It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf. Our military sources have learned that the USS Truman is just the first element of the new buildup of US resources around Iran. It will take place over the next three months, reaching peak level in late July and early August. By then, the Pentagon plans to have at least 4 or 5 US aircraft carriers visible from Iranian shores.

The USS Truman's accompanying Strike Group includes Carrier Air Wing Three (Battle Axe) - which has 7 squadrons - 4 of F/A-18 Super Hornet and F/A-18 Hornet bomber jets, as well as spy planes and early warning E-2 Hawkeyes that can operate in all weather conditions; the Electronic Attack Squadron 130 for disrupting enemy radar systems; and Squadron 7 of helicopters for anti-submarine combat (In its big naval exercise last week, Iran exhibited the Velayat 89 long-range missile for striking US aircraft carriers and Israel warships from Iranian submarines.)

Another four US warships will be making their way to the region to join the USS Truman and its Strike Group. They are the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and guided missile destroyers USS Winston S. Churchill, USS Oscar Austin and USS Ross.
We can't wait for Iran to feel completely unthreatened by this escalation and to decide to take no action whatsoever as the Nobelists push it even more into a corner from which the only escape, to a rational player, would be outright aggression... Which begs the question just how an irrational player would react.

Nic said...

Bob
My charts are a mess. Everything I like has kind of done its move and opex can be very volatile in FX. I do like CADJPY long or USDCAD short for a swing here.
I am still long EURAUD.
If tomorrow ends up being carnage in stocks sell AUDJPY but it really needs to bounce for me.

Nic said...

I like GBPUSD too if its a risk-on rally day

CV said...

@Amen

That's why there the volume wall at 1070, I suppose...

bob said...

Nic, still holding that EURAUD, a little AUDUSD short, and watching.

Anything JPY scares me, way too many digits.

CV said...

@bob

Here was your MOONSHOT today... In all it's resplendent glory...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/EURUSD%205.20.jpg

Nic said...

AmenRa .. that is very interesting. It might be time to buy some crude.

CV said...

@karen

I hope you're checking in...

Time to perhaps ICKSNAY from DTO now that "My lack of running a DAIRY QUEEN automatically puts me in NOBEL PRIZE contention" has decided to start playing around with toy ships in his bathtub...

call me ahab said...

man-

just left a pretty big post at BR's-

dudes fishing for ideas on what today meant-

and I don't think it's too complicated to understand-

but WTF do I know?

bob said...

CV, that's not even half of it, TD is just playing the anti-continent xenophobe, lol. It got to 1.2599, and is getting close to that again now. Shorts are bloody and beaten, and looking for the door a few days too late.

It's a giant casino.

CV said...

@ahab

Don't make me go over there... PLEASE DON'T!

CV said...

@bob

I'm out of the prediction game (on that one) for awhile... (except the EVENTUAL 'zero' call)...

I took my May 4th call and closed up shop...

But for amusement, I'd be more than happy to see the Johnny come lately shorts on that one beaten to a pulp...

CV's motto... THE BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES... :-)

McFearless said...

from rosenberg today:

Walmart and the consumer: CFO Thomas Schoewe on the tapes saying “more than ever our customers are living paycheck to paycheck.”

pfft, what would Walmart know? V shaped.

call me ahab said...

paycheck to paycheck is cool-

it means they at least have a paycheck I guess-

that's the good news

call me ahab said...

and from a while ago-

no- I was thinking of Richard Roundtree-

Shaft actually-

confusing my blaxploitation films obviously

CV said...

@ahab

To clarify your "blaxploitation"

Curtis Mayfield = Superfly
Isaac Hayes = "singer" of SHAFT
Roundtree = SHAFT character

You don't need me to go on to

- Blacula
- Cleopatra Jones
- Dolemite
- Bingo Long & the Travelling All Stars & Motor Kings
- Mandingo


Do you?

CV said...

Or the ultimate...

"Mr. INRADQIML"

DL said...

cv @ 9:38

Wonder when that'll start to affect the price of crude oil.

McFearless said...

wow, someone posted this at Daneric's:

http://news.yahoo.com/video/us-15749625/19917666

CV said...

Sports News...

Mikhail Prokhorov might rename the New Jersey Nets

By Trey Kerby

Mikhail Prokhorov fever is sweeping the nation, probably! There's a lot to love about a smirking, joking, 6-foot-8 Russian who made his first fortune by selling stonewashed jeans then decided to buy the New Jersey Nets because he had a spare $500 million.

Even though he couldn't keep the Nets from falling to the third pick in the draft, Prokhorov's first United States media tour has been pretty impressive. Whether it be pledging a championship within five seasons or declaring his intention to turn the Nets into the first truly global team in the NBA, Prokhorov has talked a pretty good game. But, as Julian Garcia of the New York Daily News mentions, we might not be talking about the Nets very much longer.

"Let me ask you some questions," Prokhorov said to a small group of reporters during a private brunch meeting at the Four Seasons Hotel in Manhattan. "What about the name of the team? Is it okay, the Nets? Or do we have to try to find something new?

"I'm a foreigner, you know," he said. "I need your piece of advice. I can put Russian name and nobody knows what it is. I can put the name of a girlfriend and every time I change, I need to change the name of the team."

On one hand, nice zings by everyone's new favorite owner, especially the girlfriend part. Pretty funny. On the other, I don't want this to open the door for Russians to buy all of the American sport teams and change their names. Perhaps we should draft controversial legislation that will ban European billionaires from buying American sports franchises and then have NBA teams protest that legislation with awkwardly worded jerseys. That's just a totally random suggestion, though.

However, if Prokhorov is really serious about changing the Nets' name, he's going to need a hand. If you've caught any of his interviews in the past week, you know that English is not his first language, so I think it would be nice of us to help him navigate the ins and outs of effective team naming. Between these very good suggestions and those of The Baseline's Eric Freeman, Prokhorov will have a great jumping-off point if he ever renames the team.

• New Jersey Nyets: Surely this is the first time this name has ever been suggested.
• New Jersey Stonewashed Jeans: Not only does it reference Prokhorov's first success, it also shouts out the state's pants of choice.
• New Jersey Keithvanhorns: It would be nice to honor the greatest player in team history.
• Brooklyn New Jerseys: This is kind of complicated. First the Nets would have to secure their move to Brooklyn, which would take care of the first part. Then, because they would need to buy new jerseys, they would just become the New Jerseys. It might be confusing, but it would also be very literal, which helps when acquiring a second language.
• New Jersey Bobcats: It might be available and makes just as much sense in New Jersey as in North Carolina.
• New Jersey Foulkiis: No, that's not the Russian word for foul, but rather the state's official dinosaur, the Hadrosaurus foulkii. In other news, New Jersey has an official dinosaur, but not song, even though Bruce Springsteen helped establish the state in 1787. Weird.

As you can see, there are a wealth of different choices that would be excellent names for the franchise. Sure, the team might lose a little of its identity with a name change, but following a 70-loss season that might be OK. As always, your suggestions are welcomed in the comments. The big Russian needs our help.

CV said...

CV's suggestion was...

The New Jersey "NYETS"

...but that's just me...

McFearless said...

lets hope for a pop tomorrow, I think I will be looking for shorts again if we get a decent one.

call me ahab said...

b22-

dude- that hail storm was insane!!!

CV-

Nyets of course- first choice

AmenRa said...

They are putting a beatdown on gold in the AH.

re: Euro

How do you go from 1.2345 to 1.2590 in 50 minutes w/o intervention?

Nic said...

Asian stocks smashed, The Nikkei is -2.6%, the Australian All Ords index is -3.3% and the Kospi is -1.7% tonight but ... no contagion.
Risk still holding up in fx and other futures. It might just be Asia playing catch up.

Nic said...

AmenRa 10:50 - short squeeze

Nic said...

That was the 50fib of the all time high and the all time low and everyone was talking about it. You have to think that a bit of profit taking led to some more and then it just snowballed

McFearless said...

ahab,

I've seen a lot of hail, but never anything like that before. If you had a car outside it must have been destroyed.

call me ahab said...

Ra-

you don't-

Nic- of course- everyone is covering due to the tour de force of intervention

CV said...

@Amen

GOLD - Monday, the options on gold expire... I've heard rumors that there's NO PHYSICAL TO DELIVER (so they have to beat it down so it doesn't get called)...

EURO - "How do you go from 1.2345 to 1.2590 in 50 minutes w/o intervention?"

Answer: You don't - Thanks 33 Liberty

bob said...

AR, as far as I can tell its all about flow, and flow rates. Everyone trying to go through the same door at the same time. In 2008 everyone was using $ to carry, and that was the reason the $ went sky high so quickly.

This time they were basing their trades in EUR, and trying to wind them down, and then get into $. Major cross currents on the way into the $ right now.

Nic said...

Actually most of the bounce in EURUSD came from carry trades in EURAUD and EURNZD and EURCAD unwinding. EURAUD has gone from 1.390 to 1.545 this week ...

CV said...

@Nic

All that orderly? in 50 min?

bob said...

Curtis-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Z66wVo7uNw

CV said...

Like the "Hand of God" goal by Maradona...

AmenRa said...

If the euro closes the week above 1.2594 you will have a bullish piercing pattern on the weekly chart.

CV said...

@bob

Dude... You're SLACKIN' OFF

No "soul era" hero is ever immortalized unless you link a SOUL TRAIN DANCE LINE version...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POKipOsa-8A&feature=PlayList&p=6AFFA710BC08A533&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=4

call me ahab said...

I'm pretty wiped out-

check in in the AM-

the rack monster beckons

AmenRa said...

All I'm gonna say is 1065.79 - 1069.50 (S&P cash) is the zone for the bulls goal line defense.

karen said...

good evening! wow, that took a while to get thru.. based on the comments and then a peek at the futures, i guess they've done a 180..

bob said...

CV, that's a great video. Have you ever seen Paul Mooney? He looks like he could be the really tall guy wearing all black with a major afro.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zye4uMWZP6s

AmenRa said...

bob

Paul Mooney is a riot. You need to hear his albums. Very funny.

AmenRa said...

Karen

Just better shorting opportunities.

I'll dream of BTE and green shoots again. Seems to have worked (reverse psychology).

karen said...

AR, it did work! sweet dreams : )

Andy T said...

Nobody talking about the beautiful inverse head and shoulder pattern on the Euro (60 min)?

Covering the Euro shorts/Getting a little long was an "easy" trade because it was the MOST difficult trade to make.

Two days ago the CNBC headline was "Merkel fears the EURO collapse." That sort of maximus horriblus headline is ALWAYS good for a bounce....

The question now is: where do you place the day trading stop loss on the Euro long? 1.2410 is my best guess....

We're long the Euro and nervous. Will dump that length on a print below 1.2395. Bought it at 1.2325 playing the for the obligatory short squeeze amidst "despair." The head and shoulder tgarget is 1.2750 ish....will sell it out there.

Andy T said...

Now that we're back down near "Flash Crash" lows....can we stop blaming shit for the "crash?"

It wasn't a crash....it was 'foreshadowing.'

It's where the market was meant to go...period. That much is quite obvious now, isn't it?

AmenRa said...

Andy T

The 10 SMA is a good proxy for the EURUSD on the daily and 60 min charts.

AmenRa said...

The SPX and Wilshire have closed below their respective monthly 3LB reversal prices. The Russell 2k has closed below its Monthly 3LB mid (hasn't dropped to the reversal price yet).

Andy T said...

Amen. According to 3LB, doesn't it need to close below the monthly 3LB by the end of the month. Do we need to wait till May 31st to actually confirm those numbers/reversal?

Andy T said...

For a little brevity....

"Why are you bringing me down man?"

We play a lot of guitars and are big fans of Family Guy in our office...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RmO6fc-FdE&feature=related

karen said...

BEN! LOST audition tapes from the beginning!!! have you seen this ???

http://community.livejournal.com/ohnotheydidnt/47091768.html#cutid1

Nic said...

AmenRa thanks for all the fibs you post. I do mark them down :)

karen said...

Andy, as Daisy, it is hard to take you seriously! altho I agree with your 11:57.

karen said...

oh, brother! the latest is even more difficult..

Nic said...

Interesting point about the Vix
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/05/21/238701/vix-ated/

Andy T said...

Karen. I actually took that picture of the orangutans at the San Diego Zoo. I swear I was standing there with my mother, my wife, and two young daughters when this Ape come strolling up to the window and started fingering the buttocks of the other one.

I lost it right there. It was probably the funniest thing I had ever witnessed "live."

karen said...

lovely story.. you didn't have to take the foto!

karen said...

Nic, thanks for the link but that's a sore spot as i sold my vxx too soon!

Andy T said...

I'm pretty sure I've got video somewhere if you'd like....

karen said...

and, these are unprecedented times, btw.. i guess we've been saying that since 2000, tho.. greenspan's web..

karen said...

thanks, andy.. but i have to brush my teeth now.. catcha later!

Andy T said...

Karen....

You need to fear the Underdog....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqPfCoAp_O0

McFearless said...

@AT,

11:57.

Uh, yes....thank you.

McFearless said...

Karen,

Those LOST tapes are cool, everyone wanted to be Sawyer!

call me ahab said...

AT-

Stewie Griffen- you're bringing me down- lmao

McFearless said...

Cramer 5/17

Six Reasons to Buy Gold *Right Now.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

Yes you have to wait for the end of the month. But since it has reached that price early you can take small positions until that time. That's what I do.

BinT said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aE2TiRU6HsI4

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Britain posted its largest April budget deficit since monthly records began in 1993, highlighting the scale of the squeeze to come as Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne prepares to deliver an emergency budget.

The 10 billion-pound ($14.4 billion) shortfall compared with 8.8 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. The result was below the 10.9 billion-pound median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

The report sets the scene for what economists say will be the sharpest cuts in public spending for a generation. Osborne has ordered departments to find 6 billion pounds of savings this year and will set out further measures in his June 22 budget.

...I say old sod, would you like to have a go at a spot of rioting today? You would? So would I.......

call me ahab said...

what's up w/ this-

"US Begins Massive Military Build Up Around Iran, Sending Up To 4 New Carrier Groups In Region"- ZH

ominous

b22-

re Cramer- perfectly timed call I think(-:!!!

McFearless said...

hey look, it appears the banks short positions in XLF are going to continue to work today. I can see the headlines now

"Banks second quarter profits rise on financial shorts"

Nic said...

Morning.
I keep checking in waiting for CV's "four horseman of the apocalypse" post or something similar. Gotta luv opex but he is probably keeping his powder dry for P3.

The German Parliament approved the bailout package so should keep the bottom from falling out of EUR.

UK FTSE index is trading below psyche 5000 level and below Jan lows (sitting on last Oct lows). I used to regard the DAX as the leader (intraday it usually is) but a recheck of charts shows me FTSE has been leading and was the first to make new highs (beating the dax by a couple of weeks) in the Feb rally this year.

McFearless said...

@Ra,

I'm thinking we'll get a weekly reversal on XLF? I think you said 15.09 right?

call me ahab said...

BinT-

all deflationary- everyone's broke and out of money

BinT said...

Next Plc, the second-largest U.K. clothing retailer, said on May 5 that it was “very cautious” on the outlook for households because “whatever form this action takes, it is likely that it will act to restrain growth in consumer spending.”

...You know, it appears to lil' ole me, that most western governments wanted to do the Keynesian two-step, but they found they couldn't dance to that and are slowly waltzing over to the Austrian remedies after all....

McFearless said...

ahab,

C posted that info last night, re: military build-up. Check this out, this is part of a letter than someone sent to Richard Russell maybe a month ago:

"I am a subscriber who lives in Israel. I can assure you of two things. Israel is definitely planning a strike on Iran, which I’m told may happen this Summer. The country has been having large simulated chemical attack drills, and even my small town has had its own drills (which I’m sure were ordered from above). Number 2 is that I am also hearing that Israel will not attack w/o the OK of the US. Israel needs to fly over Iraq to reach Iran, and it can’t do this w/o US attack codes. I’m not sure what the solution is, but, as someone once said – “a Jew who does not believe in miracles is not a realist.”

Nic said...

We are becoming Japan, not Greece

BinT said...

ahab:

I could lend you a fin if you need it...

McFearless said...

Nic,

I noticed same thing on FTSE the more I look at that and DAX. DAX sold off pretty good today.

Bovespa has been a decent forward indicator for DOW.

call me ahab said...

b22-

sorry dude-

like I said last night- tough wading through 400 comments-

I miss a few-

re the Israeli- who knows- maybe a strike on Iran is right around the corner

AmenRa said...

Ben

It reversed down on the weekly two weeks ago. This week would be confirmation.

Nic said...

McF - Yeah the Bovespa is I agree.

BinT said...

Yes, Nic. I think I am going to have to trade Jack Black in on a good sake.....

But I am not going to drive one of those little French cars that you have to keep one leg outside the door to drive. If it comes to that, my wife can drive and they will just strap me to the roof...

call me ahab said...

BinT-

I need to know the terms- at what interest(-:!!!

McFearless said...

ahab,

who knows but I think it's important to watch. I just hope it doesn't turn into something bigger if that does happen. The socionomic forecasts on this stuff are just downright depressing.

BinT said...

Ahab:

Don't worry. I'll call uncle Lloyd and ask him what we should do to get you some money. He's pretty good at figures...

McFearless said...

Ra,


8.22, thanks.

McFearless said...

I didn't see anyone respond to those AAII numbers I put up last night.

Decent sized jump in *bullish sentiment.

Thoughts?

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

call me ahab said...

b22- I did see that-

I was thinking maybe some folks are seeing this as a buying opportunity- and therefore more bullish-

but who knows

BinT said...

Ben,

What are you advising your clients to do here?

I am still being very conservative.

McFearless said...

Bruce,

basically same thing I've been telling them for several years now, for the vast majority they have no stock at all, the are up and down the curve and hold cash and in some cases some physical gold and/or silver. For some of my risk takers we have been short, with a lot of cash. Anyone that has stock (some people won't sell) have some sort of hedge on.

My main thing now is preparing people emotionally for a Primary Wave 3 without scaring them half to death.

McFearless said...

ahab,

that's how I read it, people are convinced that dips should be bought, just as we have been saying, dips will be bought way down in P3.

Nic said...

CAD retail sales numbers just in
Core Retail Sales m/m was 1.7% vs 0.5%
and
Retail Sales m/m +2.1% vs 0.2%

Bubblicious!!

McFearless said...

Bruce,

I had gone pretty heavy short for a few people back in January right before our big dip for many reasons, so it's not as if I was only short right before this drop....I was early.

McFearless said...

other things include:

don't buy any art/collectibles
no real estate
keep at least 1 month of expenses in cash (not in the bank)


oh, and something interesting, I tried to get 5 hundreds from a local PNC yesterday....they could only give me 3.

McFearless said...

I've also told people to use up all their rewards points on any credit card like an Amex gold/platinum.

get out of debt


all the stuff I always talk about basically

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