2011 NFL Preview - "Pre-PreSeason Version"


CV's PICKS - 2011 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig lost])

2011 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 0
2011 NCAA (unit picks differential): +0
NCAA 2011 Wager Total: (+$0) 'frn's'

2011 NFL Picks (aggregate):  0
2011 NFL (unit picks differential): +0
NFL 2011 Wager Total: (+$0) 'frn's'

Gameday/week writeup...

Full game write-ups & fantasy football notes will be posted throughout the day & before Sunday kickoff


 New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Thursday September 8, 8:30PM (EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Packers by 5

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: It used to be that the home team (Super Bowl winner) dominated these affairs... It seems to me that there was alot of celebrating going on in Green Bay in the offseason, whilst the Saints were 'royally pissed' that they let Marshawn fucking Lynch ruin their SB run last year... Tons of value with the Saints here...
SUNDAY EARLY GAMES (Sunday 9/11 - 10 year anniversary)

 Detroit Lions (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Bucs by 5.5

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: If the Lions come in within 6 points, you probably have to take them... Tampa Bay is going to be the NEW Houston Texans for the next year or so... You know... that 'sexy' underdog pick to go all the way that falls on their ass - ror... Probably Matt Stafford will blow out his shoulder before halftime though, & Calvin Johnson will be forced to become a pass blocker... Such is life in the Motor City...
 Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0) (1:00 EST) 
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Bears by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Fuck the Falcons... They're CV's 'preseason pick' to be the most overrated team in the NFL... They suck on the road, & hell, I don't kno... Mike Martz kinda got something going with Jay Cutler last year (despite all the 'quitter' drama - remember that? - didn't think so... That's why they pay CV the BIG BUCKS... to remember FOR you... In between bouts of remembering that the fed has nothing to do with anything)... The Bears dealt Greg Olsen to the Panthers (suckas)...
 Buffalo Bills (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Chiefs by 6

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Oh wait... I spoke too soon... Fuck the Chiefs... They're CV's 'preseason pick' to be the most overrated team in the NFL (well - they'll both compete for the title)...

Charlie Weis is now a GATOR, & Todd Haley is an incompetent imbecile (which means he ought to be a central banker or politician)... If the CHIEFS are anything more than a FG favorite here I'm putting a BRAZILLION units on the BILLS (who look like they've acquired the services of Brad Smith from the Jets)...
Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Colts by 1

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Eh... Fuck the TEXANS too while we're at it... Talk about overrated... It's not even 'sexy' anymore to have them as a preseason darkhorse to make the playoffs... 8-8 here we come! (which means they'll be 8-7 for the rest of the year after this game... whoopee!)...
 Philadelphia Dog Killers (0-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason)Dog Killers by 2.5

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: I'm predicting that #7 (Eagles QB) will go back to dog killing by the end of this year... The Eagles had Kevin Kolb... He probably could have kept them in play for a few years (while they revamped their decrepit offensive line... BUT NO! He'll move on to Arizona (better for HIM), while the NFC East chases dog killer QB around the gridiron & forces them to make a telephone call the Brett Favre to save the season... Can it get more pathetic?... YES... it can!... The phone call might end up being to Vince Young... Well Philly, at least you have the Phillies, cheesesteaks, & the Flyers show up every once in awhile... Maybe dog killing will make a comeback...
 Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason):  Ravens by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Yeah... While we're at it... FUCK the Steelers too... You know... In the last, like, decade... the only SB 'winners' that failed to make the playoffs the next year were the Steelers... So now what happens after they LOSE a SB?... I don't want to get too giddy here... The Ravens/Steelers gigs are always a FG... But I'll take the Ravens here... 9/11... If it weren't 4 the Washington/New York matchups, this would be a FEATURE game... Better... Because the Ravens always CHOKE in feature games... Steelers may end up signing Plaxico Burress... I hope so... The 'distraction' factor on a short porch preseason ought to keep their minds off football.. Remember, "dog killer" only started making the highlight reel his 2nd year out of prison...

 Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Browns by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Oh yeah... With all the 9/11 feature matchups, we're gonna get excited about an in-state Ohio rivalry... Go fish!... Jeez, I don't even know who to take... New coach in Cleveland vs. Marvin Lewis?... I'll get back to ya... I think Mike Brown (I only have 2 winning seasons in my 20 years as GM, but KNOW what I'm doing by not trading Carson Palmer) ought to start at QB in Cincy... #85 & TO are outta there... Cedric Benson is trying to stay out of jail... One ought to just blindly take the Browns here, except for, well, they are the Browns... THEY ARE!
 Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) (1:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Jaguars by 6

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: If there was a way that BOTH these teams could lose, it would be easier on everyone... This game portends nothing but pain... Pain from MOJO & Chris Johnson fantasy drafters, & pain that whatever happens, either side will be looking UP at Indy after week 1 (both in the division & wild card)... I've got advice for all Tenn & Jax residents... Move to NO... or Green Bay... or Baltimore... or Boston (if you want to be happy for the next 6 months)...

 Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0) (4:15 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): 49ers by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Seattle has been busy in dealing Matt Hasslebeck to the Flaming Thumbtacks, & basically loading up on all the Minny rejects (Tavaris Jackson, Sidey Rice & OC)... I've got news for you 12th man fans... Sidney Rice 'worked' because of Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Chester Taylor, & Visanthe Shiancoe... CV is NOT predicting a miracle surprise playoff run (aka Marshawn Lynch) this year... 49ers I can't say much for either... Nice to see Jim Harbaugh in town, but I think it's going to take some time... Crabtree is already on the PUP with his foot again (proving the 49ers, again, to be an INCOMPETENT rafting franchise)... It's just not sexy anymore to be taking the 49ers (but they may win here just because Seattle will regress & basically blow goats this year)...

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0) (4:15 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Cardinals by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: OTOH... Arizona is really getting it's s*** back together doing what they need to do (unless Kevin Kolb turns out to be a flop [which CV thinks WILL NOT be the case - in fact - I'd LOVE to see a rematch of the 2008/9 NFC Championship Eagles-Cards, in the playoffs this year, NFC Championship, won't happen])... That would just be so Kolb could PROVE to Andy Reid that he jumped the shark by getting on the dog killer QB wagon... Things can't get EASIER for Kolb here... He gets to BEAT UP on ANOTHER 'overrated' QB (Cam Newton)... Ought to be fun...

CV picks ARIZONA (or ST. LOUIS) to win the NFC West...

 Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0) (4:15 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason):  Chargers by 8.5

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: All I can say is, NOT having to worry about the Brett Favre drama ought to be good for at least a touchdown here (whether that's enough to still cover is up for debate)... remember, the Chargers have a propensity to start SLOW... I keep thinking it's going to be different, but it never is... I don't have the Chargers as a "lock" to win the division (while Minny could place anywhere form 1st to last in the NFC North)... The Chargers dealt Sproles to the Saints (replacing Reggie Bush), which probably means they want to get Ryan Matthews going... Minny - Jeez I can't even say if McNabb will start at QB (or who he'll throw to)... They still have Adrian Peterson, but the dynamics are all different... That makes me a casual observer of this game...

 New York Football Giants (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0 (4:15 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Giants by 3.5

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: You know... I used to like & respect Mike Shanahan (but the way he dealt with the players last year made me wonder... You gotta ask yourself about a guy like Shanahan... is he the 'antithesis' of Rex Ryan?... Players LOVE Rex Ryan (CV loves Rex Ryan - I was sad as hell when the Ravens lost him to the Jets [& what has Rex done but bring the perennial underachieving Jets to two straight AFC Championships])?... He'll probably realize to bring Nnamdi Asamugha in at right corner (at less pay) - that's how much players like to play for Rex Ryan... The Giants seem to have a love/hate with Tom Coughlin... 10-6 last year, but failed to make the playoffs... When the Giants start choking, the lights go out... & nowadays they're overshadowed by the Jets... I'd probably be laying the points with the Giants here, but MORE LIKELY, this pointspread is a PASS...

Note: Much fanfare here, as the NFL (on the 10 year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the WTC & Pentagon, schedules a game between NY & WASH... (like I REALLY feel sorry for all the Wall St. bankers, K - street lobbyists, politicians, Pentagon contractors & brass, & all their hookers & coke suppliers)... But I suppose they all have to create something to cry about for themselves... The spoiled rich grandchildren of the aunts & uncles of holocaust survivors (who work in the movie & entertainment business in Hollywood) will have to wait until next March to get their "Self serving - crying game - version 47.2" on...


 Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0) (8:20 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets by 3

EARLY BIRD GAME NOTES: Well... SOMEBODY in the Big Apple had to host a football game... IN PRIME TIME... On the 10 year anniversary of 9/11... As fate would have it... How could it NOT BE...


the JETS!

I know... I know... people... None of you really considered that until just now... That's why I get PAID to think for you all... Oh wait... I don't get paid anything for this... I just tell you what's going to happen (months before it does)... Just so you can IGNORE it (& laugh at it)... Then get PISSED at me for reminding you of my call after it happens...

The line here is probably right (my prediction)... But if Nnamdi Asamugha gets signed by the Jets, the odds may sweeten for the 'Boys (whereby I'd take them)... There will be plenty of time to handicap this game further as the season approaches... Which I'll be sure to do...

Note: CV has DALLAS winning the NFC East... & CV has the Jets as the first wild card team in AFC (with the Patriots winning the division)...


New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0) (7:00 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Patriots by 6

Will have game notes by week one... CV has Patriots WINNING the AFC East & possibly representing the AFC in the Superbowl...

 Oakland Raiders (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0) (10:15 EST)
CV's Projected Line (before preseason): Broncos by 3

Will have game notes by week one... CV has Raiders possibly WINNING the AFC West...


PRESEASON PICKS (to make playoffs & Superbowl) - Picks to be finalized before Week 1 kickoff...

NFC East - Cowboys
NFC South - Saints
NFC North - Packers
NFC West - Cardinals
Wildcard - Falcons
Wildcard - Lions

AFC East - Patriots
AFC South - Colts
AFC North - Ravens
AFC West - Chargers
Wildcard - Jets
Wildcard - Steelers

NFC Championship - Cowboys vs. Saints
AFC Championship - Ravens vs. Patriots

Superbowl - Ravens vs. Saints

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I did a reenactment of Rick James on your couch (but it was on the market).

Bearish short day (didn't confirm inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Holding above trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 50.0% minor retrace (1300.28). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1305.44). QE2infinity. Still below weekly & monthly 3LB mids.

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding its 0.0% retrace (73.51). Still below all SMA's. Failing its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.75).

Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (23.05). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.52). Another escape from the "no fear" zone.

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1631.00). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1604.60). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.

Bearish long day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.1467). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1718).

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Held its 61.8% retrace (40.20). No test of 38.2% minor retrace (40.45). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.86).

Bearish LONG day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (28.55). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.58).

Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (95.94). Dally 3LB reversal down (reversal is 99.87).

Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the upper trend line. Failing its 38.2% retrace (40.69). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.08).

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (46.19). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.32).

Doji day (with a huge gap lower). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (0.8201). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (0.8106). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8321).

Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.24). *Lower major retrace levels made using range of the other major retrace.


aka President, Senate, House, Lobbyist

Morning Corner 7.29.11

SPX/Gold Ratio (monthly info)
-no change (below mid)
low= 0.7645
rev= 1.0672; mid= 0.9159

Here's the truth about QE1, QE2, unexplainable rallies, etc. They're all BS. In terms of gold the SPX is looking to make new lows. It's below all SMA's. It's making a weekly 3LB reversal down (1 more day).

XLP/SPY Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
direction=up (1 bar)
low= 0.2350
rev= 0.2450; mid= 0.2400

It appears consumers are heading for the hills as discretionary is falling faster than the SPY. It's still below the weekly 3LB mid and fighting to stay above the monthly 3LB mid. It's below the SMA(21) and support is the SMA(233). That's a pretty good drop if it's get there.


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