Weekend Edition - Week 5 NFL & NCAA Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals

2010 NCAA Picks: 14-8-1

2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +7

NCAA 2010 Wager Total: (+$630)

NFL Picks (against the spread): 33-25-3

NFL (unit picks differential): +15

NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+$1,290)

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WEEK 5 NCAA PICKS (pick in BOLD CAPS)

Wyoming at TCU (-34.5) - 1 unit

Wyoming 0 - TCU 45 (correct +$100) 

Toledo at BOISE STATE (-39) - 1 unit

Toledo 14 - Boise State 59 (correct +$100) 

Additional games of note (no "unit" plays) - results" Green = correct/Red = incorrect: CV would favor: Notre Dame (push), Texas A&M, Kentucky, Wake Forest, Penn St.

Week 5 NCAA Results:

Week 5 NCAA Picks: 5-1-1

Week 5 unit pick differential: +2

Week 5 wager total: +$200

Note: CV is being very conservative this week... I've managed to cash positive in EVERY week thus far this season... The last 2 weeks have been especially good... So I'm dialing it down here (risk wise), while the ATS picking ratio comes back into line...

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 WEEK 5 NFL 

BYE WEEK: (New England, Miami, Pittsburgh, Seattle)

I'll offer some more detailed game write-ups as the weekend progresses... The bottom line is that I've been doing very well ATS (against the spread)... I'm overdue for a clunker, and I really don't see a lot of lines that offer much value... Here's a start...

EARLY GAMES

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)

Line: Ravens by 7

I'm siding with the BRONCOS for (0 units)... Old wagering "trend" in effect for this game...

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (1:00 EST)

Line: Jaguars by 1
Nobody circles the wagons like... The Buffalo BILLS for (2 units)... 

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST)

Line: Colts by 8

I think the Chiefs are a farce, but 8 points is a lot... CHIEFS for (0 units)...

Logos Lower - Blogger Sucks
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)

Line: Lions by 3

The Rams are a covering machine this year, and the Lions are coming off two tough losses... But betting "winless" teams often pays well... LIONS for (0 units)...

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)

Line: Falcons by 3
Falcons won a tough one at home last week... The risk is that they come out flat against an inferior team... But the Browns won too... BROWNS for (0 units)...

Tampa Bay Bucs at Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST)

Line: Bengals by 6.5

Tampa is coming off a BYE week... Bengals started to show some offense last week... BENGALS for (0 units) in a turnover fest...

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST)
Line: Bears by 2.5

The Bears may be looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing loss on national TV... Julius Peppers going against his old squad... I'll take the BEARS for (1 unit)...

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (1:00 EST)

Line: Packers by 2.5

The Packers need to cut out the mistakes if they expect to become bonafide contenders, but they face a Washington team coming off an emotional victory... Neither team has their starting backfield in operation... PACKERS for (0 units)...

New York Football Giants at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)

Line: Texans by 3

If this comes out in BOLD FACE type so be it... Blogger sucks... I'll take the TEXANS here for (1 unit)... A 3 point line basically menas that these teams are identical... Last week, the Giants put Jay Cutler on the sidelines with 9 sacks (as I said teams would eventually do vs. a Mike Martz offense)... It won't matter here, Houston will run Arian Foster down their throat...

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST)

Line: Saints by 8

I'm going with the CARDINALS here for (1 unit)... The Saints haven't won a game by more than 3 points this year (against teams with a combines 1-10 record), and they're laying 8 points on the road to a team they met in the playoffs last year... I know the Cards will be starting rookie Max Hall here, but the line seems kind of ridiculous considering the Saints have really yet to get it in gear this year...

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (4:15 EST)

Line: Chargers by 6

The Chargers have beaten Oakland 13 straight times now... No reason to think it won't be different now, but Nnadi Asamogha can take away some of Phillip Rivers weapons... He can't take away Antonio Gates though, so I'll go with the Chargers to win, but the RAIDERS to cover for (0 units)...

Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Dallas Cowboys (4:15 EST)

Line: Cowboys by 6.5

The Titans haven't shown much thus far... Chris Johnson, (as I told many at the beginning of the season), got too many carries last year, and is thus, much less effective this year... He got all those yards after the Titans started out winless in 6 games and everyone thought they were a joke... Now, every team stuffs 8 in the box to stop him... He'll get his breakaway runs, but it's much more of a crapshoot... it's especially tough when the Titans fall BEHIND in the score... I really have no idea how this game will turn out... In a strange way, I like the COWBOYS, coming off a bye week, and still needing a win, to cover (0 units)...

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (8:20 EST)

Line: 49ers by 3.5

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (8:35 EST)

Line: Jets by 4

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: What can I say? I have an evil twin?

SPX
Bullish short day (c'mon son. really?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and above 1151.86 (the .0557 fibo from high). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1142.71). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 76.4% retrace at 77.60. Also below 78.41 (.0557 from low). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.09).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 23.19). Approaching the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day (broke free from engulfing). Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of new 0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1310.30).



EURUSD
Doji day (no harami cross confirmation). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 61.8% retrace at 1.3899 again. Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3637). BoE needs to tap out.



JNK
Hanging man day (at the 100% retrace)). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed slightly above the 100% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.86).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (struggling to close gap). The new 0.0% fibo retrace at 23.59 has held. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 24.56).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4531.19). Train A has entered the tunnel traveling 55mph. Train B has entered the other end of the tunnel traveling 89mph. You know the answer.



CRB
Bullish LOOONNGG day (fully engulfed the bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 285.93).



TLT
Bearish short day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 23.6% retrace for the last seven days. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 106.02).

Morning Audibles 10.8.10

Ok, so here we are... NFP day...

A Hard Job is Good to find (wait, did I get that right)?

Whaddya say, MAE?

What are all supposed to be waiting for again? Oh yeah, If I recollect, it goes something like...

A) If the number comes in hot, the stock market goes up

B) If the number comes in cold, QE is assured, so the stock market goes up

C) If the number comes in "meh", that's considered goldilocks, so the stock market goes up

Of course, we all know it has nothing to do with actual PEOPLE, or JOBS... Just those who profit at the expense of others...

Tell them they need to SUCK IT UP

Let them eat OKRA cake

"Down into the never-ending valley of toil and agony, stretching mile after mile, an inferno of mud-soaked bodies, where the treaders' feet churn clay and straw into the mixture for Pharaoh's bricks, and everywhere the lash of watchful taskmasters, ready to sting the backs of the weary.

"Blades chopping straw... mattocks chopping clay, a ceaseless cycle of unending drudgery. From the mixing feet of treaders to the pouring hands of brick molders, moves the constant stream of mud, the lowly seed of tall cities. Day after day, year after year, century after century, bondage without rest, toil without reward. These are the children of misery, the afflicted, the hopeless, the oppressed." - The Ten Commandments - 1956

Not plussed about the toils of every day slaves, here's what a modern day PHARAOH had to say about the world this morning... (well actually, I'd characterize him more of a DATHAN type, but we'll get to that later)...

Markets: Very Big Multithreaded Software Apps That Crash

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/markets-very-big-multithreaded-software-apps-that-crash/

Excerpt: "Our stock markets now behave no differently than a giant multithreaded software application."

So, Mr. "Do you want to be right, or make money" "Wall Streeter who Blogs"... assuming you count yourself in the "I want to make money" crowd, I suppose you consider yourself a type who collects small gold coins from PHARAOH to keep an eye on the SLAVES working in the mudpits, and assure the building of Goshen goes on...

Well all I can say is "congratulations" on your promotion from TREADER, to TRADER...

But remember What Moses said to Pharaoh:

"The city is made of bricks. The strong make many, the starving make few, the dead make none."