AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day. Crushed 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Now it may test 1110.02 (fibo .09). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 89 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken (91.80 is next). Closed above the 76.4% retrace. Bucky has been working out. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 84.08.



VIX
Bullish long day. Fear is being long or short over the weekend. Tested the 23.6% retrace and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still 28% above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Doji day (close enough. body s/b 5% or less). Acting like it's scared of 1250. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. La-la-la-la-la-la-la (fat lady preparing to sing). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 9x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2827.



JNK
Bearish short day. Confirmed dark cloud cover. Now below the 50% retrace. Closed back below the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Spinning top day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Now below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still getting kicked while down. No daily 3LB changes.

Morning Audibles 5.14.10 What You See If You Look

Many of you have probably already seen the video that I'm linking here. I finally got to it this morning.


Why did it take me so long? I'll give you three simple reasons (and then let you follow whatever your personal "thought trend" leads you to fill in the numbers from #4 to #100)...

1. I'm not particularly, um, a fan, of "Lady Gaga" (some catchy songs I suppose, but I'm not a fan of "schtick" performers)
2. I'm not a fan of American Idol. (That said, I've NEVER watched it, EVER, not even 5 minutes). I don't have to, I know I'd be bored out of my mind in less than half that time.
3. 6th graders don't move me in any particular way either (or, at least the 99.9% of them who spend 99.9% of their waking hours gossiping, twittering, & texting messages back and forth between one another discussing #'s 1 & 2 above...

But I finally broke down and watched it. I'm going to skip right through the fact that it was a FANTASTIC rendition (most who have seen it already know that)...

So why am I bothering to use it to open up discussion on a blog which discusses Capital Markets? Answer: Because "markets" ARE emotion. RP, I believe, calls it "Socioeconomics"...

CV found himself watching the "faces" of the other 6th graders in the audience as the performance began. Remember, these were raw emotions. This was not some TV director doing "cutaways". There were no lights, no fog, no sequined outfits. Just a bunch of bored 6th graders in an auditorium, probably wishing they were somewhere else, but perhaps slightly happy because they got to skip their "Earth Science" class...

Now what I just said isn't apparent to EVERY naked eye. Some of you will just see a bunch of faces (and they all will look the same). But I can see the ones, who, were unexpectedly taken aback by this performance. The blonde girl up top for instance - you can see it in her eyes - her eyes start moving a mile a minute SEARCHING, looking to catch the eyes of someone else in the room and basically say, SILENTLY, "Wow - Are you hearing what I'm hearing"?. (There are others who clearly react in the same way - go ahead and pick them out on your own).

They are not ALL afficianados. There's a girl in the middle with black hair. During the middle of the performance she's twirling her hair with her finger. Body Language experts tell you that when a girl twirls her hair she's "flirting". This was not flirting, this was. "I don't get it, & I'm bored".

Anyway, the reason I bring this all up is that both in markets (and in the blogosphere), some people GET IT, and some people DON'T. CV has known this from watching the faces of people (in a live setting) for over 25 years teaching group fitness. You're pouring your guts out day after day trying to be unique, challenging, and motivating - with hardly any regard of your own needs. You're just trying to CREATE SOMETHING, an EXPERIENCE for people to enjoy (and let everyone be themselves in the process).

So that's my metaphor for the day. It's probably the reason the markets have been so frustrating for a long time now. Why, because there IS NO FREEDOM, there IS NO EXPRESSION when governments and banksters all try to control the outcome.

It would be as if the principal of the school (before the kid's performance) instructed everyone that they had to paint a smile on their face and stare straight ahead because this was all being filmed for broadcast. Worse - If there had been an attempt to manufacture the outcome in a manner like that, most of the audience would have likely been to distracted with their "duty" to actually enjoy the performance the way they did. It's further likely that then entire thing would have NEVER become a sensation. And of course, SURELY all of America would have been forced to watch the "other" kid play the kazoo while juggling coconuts as an attachment because, well, it's NOT FAIR to have people FAIL in society now is it?

Instead, we live in a world of teleprompter Presidents who get elected because they say what they think people want to hear. They think that people want to AVOID FAILURE at all costs. They will do everything legal in their powers to avoid that outcome, and if the laws themselves aren't helping out, well they'll change those.

The truth is, that "failure" or any notions of "avoiding failure" are not scripted into the Declaration of Independence. Instead, the DOI refers to the "pursuit of happiness".

"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."

Moreover, these unalienable rights are NOT endowed by their President, Congress, King, or Czar. They are endowed by their Creator.

So the moral of this story is to get yourselves off your "screens". Get off your i-Pods, your crackberries, your AI, and your market tickers. Just glance up for a minute and look into peoples faces. See what that is telling you. Mostly what CV sees are people who are saying. "Just let me make my own decision and stop trying to make it for me"...

I'm wondering if the President, while riding through Buffalo, NY yesterday in his limousine took time enough to glance up and see THESE faces on a billboard ad put together from some of the locals.



For you, spoonman (or anyone else)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day. Could be bearish harami (but 2nd body should be smaller). Held 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Still may test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint is above 10 SMA. Tested the 55 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken (91.80 is next). Bucky has been working out. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 83.30.



VIX
Bullish short day. Possible hammer. Fear of the one week anniversary. Tested the 14.6% retrace and passed. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Possible bearish harami (but 1st day is too small). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
BANZAI!!! Bearish short day. The EU bailout blowup has blown away the paper money. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 8x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3005.



JNK
Dark cloud cover day. Still above the 50% retrace. Closed back below the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



BIDU
Dark cloud cover day. Major storm brewing. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested but never closed the gap. No daily 3LB changes.




XRT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed below 55 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes.

Morning Audibles 5.13.13 - Let's see what DAY 13 brings...

Today marks 13 trading days since the 1219.80 level on the S&P was reached. It may mean something, it may mean nothing. However, there have been THREE "corrections" since the March '09 lows that went as low as a .09 (fibonacci extension)... They were:

- Last June-July (where the extension hit precisely that number, 956-879)...
- January - Feb (where 1150 retraced to 1044)...
- Now (while the "flash crash" of last Thursday printed down to 1065), the algos caught it within a day, and Fridays trading finished the week on PRECISELY .09, [S&P 1,100]...

Both the June/July, and Jan/Feb "corrections" lasted FIBO DAYS (from high to low). The former lasted 21 days, the latter, 13 days. There was another "minor" correction (back in Oct/Nov) that lasted 8 days...

From the most recent high [1219.8], the "Flash Crash" hit on the 8th day... Moreover, today's trading will be the 5th day since the FLASH CRASH (making it DAY 13)...

Since these patterns have repeated themselves, they bear watching. It would make quite a bit of sense to see trading make an attempt to "disavow" any wave completion within todays stick... But if all goes to hell, it could go to hell quite quickly...

It doesn't matter whether or not anyone "believes" in the voodoo of FIBONACCI sequences... If someone shouts "fire" in a crowded theatre, and even only a few people get scared and start to stampede, then the odds that others will follow starts to grow exponentially...

So enjoy yourselves with DAY 13, on May 13...

Houston... Do we have a problem? Or not? (& doesn't it kind of make you wish that some of THESE GUYS were the ones who could solve the problems with out financial system)?


AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bullish long day. Resolved previous doji day higher. Held 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Still may test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and passed (but not the 50 SMA). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Hanging man (with long lower shadow) day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price is holding. Bucky is getting weak at the knees. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish short day. The ECB still have many sleepless nights ahead. Tested the 14.6% retrace and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Now at historic new highs. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1197.30.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. The EU bailout blowup (and it has been only 3 days). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 7x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is resistance. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



BIDU
Bullish long day. Back above 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Tested but never closed the gap. Had a 10:1 split (aka bait). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish long day (stop laughing). Back above the 50% retrace. Closed above the 144 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



LQD
Spinning top day. Almost closed above the 55 EMA (4th try). Continues to make higher lows. No daily 3LB changes.

Morning Audibles 5.12.10 - Control You Can Believe In

Sometimes you read a comment and it just makes you laugh... The process spirals off into it's own universe... The markets will tell you which direction they're going to head soon enough (probably by tomorrow - which will be DAY 13), but we might as well start getting a handle on election SLOGANS for 2012...

The first one was a contribution, the rest, well, kind of followed suit...








 


 



As for your humble blog host... Now THIS is the sort of CONTROL I can believe in...

 

After all, we did elect this guy because he was so... "SMART"... Right?


AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Doji day. Held 1151.86 (fibo .0557). Still may test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and failed. Indecision probably due to morning star pattern (and the fact that Greece is still going to implode). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price is holding. Bucky still needs help. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish short day (resolved doji lower). The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is in the eye of the ECB. Closed below the fibo retrace of 23.6%. Tested the 14.6% retrace and passed (2x). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Closed above previous intraday high (1226.40). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1183.30.



EURUSD
Bearish short day (resolved doji lower). EU bailout losing steam (and it has been only 2 days). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 6x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is holding. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Doji day. Closed below the 50% retrace. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



GS
Spinning top day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Intraday low is higher than yesterday. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 157.40.

Morning Audibles 5.11.10 - Red, Blue, or "Chill"?

Despite the heightened volatility in the markets these past 3 trading days or so (which included two weekend days), your humble blog host, CV, has been uncannily subdued in mood... Want answers? Well basically, I've decided that instead of taking one of these...

Blue Pill - Red Pill

I'd just take one of these (and be content to watch the fireworks for a bit)...



I was very, very, very lucky to be able to do this... CV had an SPXU position on (basically since March 5th, when the SPX took out the FIBO retrace back to 1150 after the January dip)... With two months of incessant grinding, it was my idea that that position might end up in the dumpster along with everyones SRS & FAZ positions from '09... Alas, in a 'miracle moment' during last Thursdays FLASH CRASH, that position (which had been 'deeply' red), flashed green to the tune of $800 semolians (beer money, I know, but it's better than losing for a thirsty boy like me)... Anyway, I somehow managed to get out of that position right then and there (which was a miracle in of itself)... The SPX was around 1074 at the time (which is even MORE a miracle as it was near the lows for the day)...

Anyway, since that time I've put on no new positions (on either side)... I still have some short SPY positions, but a lot of cash as well... So I've just been "chillin'"... But that doesn't mean things aren't on my mind... This is a short list:

- The FLASH CRASH... We're fairly confident now that it wasn't "fat fingered". But the media reporting did its work well, and I'd say most of the Johnny's out there are still convinced that that's what it was. Since they have the attention spans of the gnat population, they've already clicked the remote back to the regularly scheduled programming. Wrap it up and put it to bed. The "fat finger" is now in the dumpster along with JFK assassination & Area 51... Question is, could "the squid" have triggered this in a way to deflect attention from themselves...Did they Did they?

- $972B is just a "down payment" for bailing out the Euro Zone (trust me)... Consider your appetites "whetted"... They're just conditioning us for what's to come... As we all know, once you throw good money after bad, there is more to follow...

- I'm sure nobody needs convincing of that last bullet point, but if you do, I'll simply nominate the "latest"... Fannie Mae, the mortgage-finance company operating under federal conservatorship, said it will seek $8.4 billion in aid from the U.S. Treasury Department after reporting its 11th-straight quarterly loss... Need I go further?

- Lest anyone get TOO COMFY with all these ideas, let me remind you... Governments bailed the banks out (using taxpayer money), now the banks are bailing the governments (who are insolvent largely because of the bank bailouts) - The banks themselves will net 1.5 billion a year in fees... More bonuses for bankers... Also, The IMF's piece of this thing is allegedly €286 billion... The US is 17% of that (or about $50 billion)... In order for that money to be "appropriated", it has to be "appropriated" (by Congress)... Expect "things" to be tacked on to that "Appropriations Bill"... GET READY TO BE HANDED THE TAX BILL FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE...

- Goldman Sachs, which makes more money from trading than any other Wall Street firm, also disclosed that its traders generated $100 million or more on 35 days during the first quarter and lost money on no days... DO I NEED TO COMMENT ON THIS?

- Warren Buffett Has "No Comment" On His Sale Of $30MM In MCO Shares Just After Moody's Wells Notice Receipt... Hmmm...

- On the subject of "comments", I thought both Bernanke and Geithner had said the crisis was behind us? (I'm too lazy to look these quotes up, but if someone has the right combination of boredom and "bloodhound" in them, they might look it up for extra credit)... Those quotes WILL come in handy some day...

- I kind of 'secretly' hope that the SPX makes it WAAAAY up there on a retest of the highs (personally - I have it pegged for around 1190 at the moment - but that's just a 'crude' guess)... In any case, it would make a HUGE sideways wedge (from 1044)... That's about a 180 point S&P range... Perhaps 'annoying', but hell, for TECHNICAL TRADERS, it might be a dream...

- World Cup is coming in a few weeks to South Africa... I've heard that 40,000 "prostitutes" have descended on the country... Gee - I suppose that that means that Wall St. has effectively SHUT DOWN until the end of July & will be working down there for pay... THE ALGOS REALLY ARE IN CHARGE! Good luck trading against them!

Oh, and finally... In my "browsing", I came across this "click pay" ad the other day...


LOL - All I can say is, something about it seems, well... APPROPRIATE...

AmenRa's Corner

Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...


SPX
Bullish long day. Retested 1151.86 (fibo .0557) and passed. May now test 1177.84 (fibo .0344). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 89 SMA and passed. Completed morning star pattern. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day (also confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has held. Bucky needs help. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Doji day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is Euro. Euro is fear. Closed below the fibo retrace of 23.6%. Tested the 14.6% retrace and passed. Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



EURUSD
Doji day. Actually confirmed bullish harami (but it's weak). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 5x). Fibo level of 1.2935 was tested and held strong. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bearish short day. Gapped higher on open (to be filled asap). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 144 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



SLV
Bearish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still above 21 SMA. Held the 76.4% retrace. Looks weak. No daily 3LB changes.




XRT
Bullish short day. Trading below 10 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



GS
Bearish long day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Tested previous low of 147.81 (failed) and back below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Who has the ability to keep Goliath down?. No daily 3LB changes.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.