Enough Said...
vs.
get your...
or in Amen Ra's case... (new logo for SC today)
or in I-Man's case (after he quits his job)
AmenRa's Corner
A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
I'd rather be in the hurricane!
SPXBullish day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 & 233 SMA's. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (BSx2). New high on daily 3LB reversal with reversal still 1050.47. Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBullish short day. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXBearish long day. Midpoint below 10EMA. Fear is here no matter how the market trades. Closed below the weekly 3LB mid and below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish thrusting day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10EMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDBearish short day. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Still above the fibo .2058 at 1.2028. Still coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
JNKBullish short day. Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed) and still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA (barely). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish thrusting day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 144.95).
BPDoji day. Not a good confirmation of bullish harami star. Closed back above the 0.0% retrace. Still below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
WTIDark cloud cover day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 69.41).
Morning Audibles 6.11.10 Let's Look At This From a "Mission" Standpoint
I gotta admit... It's as confusing to CV as it is to anyone else what these charts look like right now...
The whole scenario reminds me of the scene in Apollo XIII when the oxygen tanks of the spacecraft exploded... There was entire chaos, but the crew of the space module and Gene Kranz (Flight Director at NASA's Mission Control in Houston - & whose character was played by the outstanding actor Ed Harris in the movie Apollo XIII), had to get an entire working team focused on the task of bringing the three astronauts (Jim Lovell, Ken Mattingly, & Fred Haise) back to Earth safely...
I'm going to start by making some of you PHD's out there do your own homework and research the various EW scenarios that Andy T has been talking about on his "Sunday Evening Post" offerings (specifically - slide 5 from this past Sunday, June 6th)...
You don't have to be a "waver" to understand the diagram... It simply outlines a potential scenario (which can subsequently be NEGATED by a different set of outcomes)... There are OTHER scenarios, but they all follow rules... It's a process of ELIMINATION...
Despite my "joking around", CV is the pragmatic type... When things get serious, I like to LOOK AT THINGS FROM A MISSION STANDPOINT (like Mr. Krantz)... I want to first eliminate what's not working, and then assign probabilities to WHAT IS working...
Here are a few points that are CERTAIN... (SPX wise)
- 1140 is a bad number that the market (or TPTB) are trying to avoid
- Equity BULLS need to do a lot of work to reclaim a lot of technical damage done to the market during the month of May
- Presently, there are a number of different RESISTANCE levels overhead... There is, of course, the "Wanger Magical Mystical Number" that every fund manager, central banker, and sovereign leader is quaking in their boots over, 1097 (jk)... Beyond that:
- chart gap in the 11-teens
- some technical levels in the 1120's
- 1150 is a biggie
- 1173 would invalidate many wave scenarios
Basically, there are enough "scenarios" to boggle ones mind at the moment... But the bottom line is this... It's a more COMPLEX gauntlet for BULLS to navigate (if they hope to extend the rally from the March '09 lows), than what the BEARS might have to suffer... Recently, gains have been fought for "tooth & nail" or by outright market intervention (whereas SELL OFFS come along rather easily)...
Notwithstanding, If your inclination is to GO SHORT this market, doing so WILLY NILLY could be hazardous to your nether regions (depending on your entry point, your risk profile, or your tolerance for pain)...
Therefore, I'm going to present this SHORT TERM chart to perhaps serve as a guide to short term ENTRY POINTS (and/or positions to "flee from)... This is a 10 minute chart on the SPX for the past 20 days... Some of it is annotated, but I'll bullet point some of those thoughts in text as well...
- In the past 20 days, CV notes MANY breaks of the 200SMA have occurred in "overnight" trading... While I could ask the simple question "WHY"?... The answer to that question ought to be obvious to anyone who DOESN'T work for CNBC, Bloomberg, the Fed, or the Obama Administration...
- Note the (RSI) waves... The extreme "overbought" or "oversold" readings came either on a sharp break to the other side of the SMA, or otherwise as an EWI peak was being established...
- The DEVIATIONS are also of interest... While we've had OVERSOLD amplitude deviations, the largest OVERBOUGHT deviation came at only 1/3rd the amplitude of the weaker side... This may or may not say anything, but it's certainly something to FACTOR IN (especially considering that there's a little room to spare on the UPSIDE of the RSI at the moment)...
- The potential TARGET of upside (potentially the 1110-1120 area) happens to be an area of interest to "wavers"... It should also be of note that the last time the SPX traded at those levels (7 days ago), the RSI hit a PEAK... Therefore, EXCEEDING those levels with a lower RSI would generate bearish divergence...
- On the other side of the equation... The next cross to the downside of that 200SMA may portend doom... Furthermore, based on recent pattern, those "crosses" may happen overnight (so be careful of your positions going to bed at night)...
Things are already interesting... And they're about to get MORE INTERESTING...
Come to think of it... While we're working on PROBLEMS... Why don't we get this guy...
The whole scenario reminds me of the scene in Apollo XIII when the oxygen tanks of the spacecraft exploded... There was entire chaos, but the crew of the space module and Gene Kranz (Flight Director at NASA's Mission Control in Houston - & whose character was played by the outstanding actor Ed Harris in the movie Apollo XIII), had to get an entire working team focused on the task of bringing the three astronauts (Jim Lovell, Ken Mattingly, & Fred Haise) back to Earth safely...
Gene Kranz
Decorated - PRESIDENTIAL MEDAL OF FREEDOM
I'm going to start by making some of you PHD's out there do your own homework and research the various EW scenarios that Andy T has been talking about on his "Sunday Evening Post" offerings (specifically - slide 5 from this past Sunday, June 6th)...
You don't have to be a "waver" to understand the diagram... It simply outlines a potential scenario (which can subsequently be NEGATED by a different set of outcomes)... There are OTHER scenarios, but they all follow rules... It's a process of ELIMINATION...
Despite my "joking around", CV is the pragmatic type... When things get serious, I like to LOOK AT THINGS FROM A MISSION STANDPOINT (like Mr. Krantz)... I want to first eliminate what's not working, and then assign probabilities to WHAT IS working...
"Let's work the problem people... Let's not make things worse by guessing"
Here are a few points that are CERTAIN... (SPX wise)
- 1140 is a bad number that the market (or TPTB) are trying to avoid
- Equity BULLS need to do a lot of work to reclaim a lot of technical damage done to the market during the month of May
- Presently, there are a number of different RESISTANCE levels overhead... There is, of course, the "Wanger Magical Mystical Number" that every fund manager, central banker, and sovereign leader is quaking in their boots over, 1097 (jk)... Beyond that:
- chart gap in the 11-teens
- some technical levels in the 1120's
- 1150 is a biggie
- 1173 would invalidate many wave scenarios
Basically, there are enough "scenarios" to boggle ones mind at the moment... But the bottom line is this... It's a more COMPLEX gauntlet for BULLS to navigate (if they hope to extend the rally from the March '09 lows), than what the BEARS might have to suffer... Recently, gains have been fought for "tooth & nail" or by outright market intervention (whereas SELL OFFS come along rather easily)...
Notwithstanding, If your inclination is to GO SHORT this market, doing so WILLY NILLY could be hazardous to your nether regions (depending on your entry point, your risk profile, or your tolerance for pain)...
Therefore, I'm going to present this SHORT TERM chart to perhaps serve as a guide to short term ENTRY POINTS (and/or positions to "flee from)... This is a 10 minute chart on the SPX for the past 20 days... Some of it is annotated, but I'll bullet point some of those thoughts in text as well...
- In the past 20 days, CV notes MANY breaks of the 200SMA have occurred in "overnight" trading... While I could ask the simple question "WHY"?... The answer to that question ought to be obvious to anyone who DOESN'T work for CNBC, Bloomberg, the Fed, or the Obama Administration...
- Note the (RSI) waves... The extreme "overbought" or "oversold" readings came either on a sharp break to the other side of the SMA, or otherwise as an EWI peak was being established...
- The DEVIATIONS are also of interest... While we've had OVERSOLD amplitude deviations, the largest OVERBOUGHT deviation came at only 1/3rd the amplitude of the weaker side... This may or may not say anything, but it's certainly something to FACTOR IN (especially considering that there's a little room to spare on the UPSIDE of the RSI at the moment)...
- The potential TARGET of upside (potentially the 1110-1120 area) happens to be an area of interest to "wavers"... It should also be of note that the last time the SPX traded at those levels (7 days ago), the RSI hit a PEAK... Therefore, EXCEEDING those levels with a lower RSI would generate bearish divergence...
- On the other side of the equation... The next cross to the downside of that 200SMA may portend doom... Furthermore, based on recent pattern, those "crosses" may happen overnight (so be careful of your positions going to bed at night)...
Things are already interesting... And they're about to get MORE INTERESTING...
Come to think of it... While we're working on PROBLEMS... Why don't we get this guy...
"Look Americans, this is sand, and we don't like tar blobs "washing-TON" up on it on our beaches... So I'm here before you, to look authoritative, and make promises to KICK SOME ASS... Please now, go back to your "Dancing With The Stars Episodes & remember "I INHERITED THIS PROBLEM"... Sooner or later I'll get to that "Hope & Change" crap you bought into..."
Instead of just posing for foto-ops...
To call someone like this guy...
Instead of just posing for foto-ops...
To call someone like this guy...
Or please, at least someone like him that has either RUN A DAIRY QUEEN before (or "something" else even mildly managerial in nature)... & hopefully DIDN'T go to Harvard!
AmenRa's Corner
A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Another rogue wave. Even the eye isn't safe.
SPXBullish long day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) was the new kryptonite (not anymore). Midpoint still below 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (BS). Daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1050.47. Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day (finally decided direction). Midpoint barely above 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.
VIXSpinning top (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below 10EMA. Fear is waking up and realizing WTH was that today?. Failed the 23.6% retrace but still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBearish long day. Profit taking? JPM? Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDBullish long day. GS must be short. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Tested the fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (passed). Still coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
JNKBullish long day. Finally confirmed inverted hammer so risk is back on (suckers). Tested the 14.6% retrace (passed) but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBearish long day. Asked the market "What about me?". Well below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Daily 3LB reversal (down) with reversal now 144.95.
BPSpinning top day. Possible bullish harami star (ok stop laughing). Closed way below the 0.0% retrace. Way below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).
WTIBullish long day. Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 69.41).
Morning Audibles 6.10.10 Futures Are Up
S&P Futures are up. It's hard to really figure out "WHY", but perhaps there's some "hope" coming from an ECB meeting later on... The market had "wings" for a bit yesterday too after Bernanke spoke, but that didn't seem to last very long, did it?
I think the question here is... Notwithstanding AMEN RA's hurricane icon... "Where are we"?... There are some minor FIBOS in play and some Leading Diagonals ("LD's") associated close to those levels, but right now that range is fairly broad (meaning there can be some huge intraday swings in the market that LOOK like something major happened, but that really don't resolve anything...
So this morning I decided to take a larger view... This is a WEEKLY chart on SPX (going back 10 years)... It's too complicated to annotate on the chart, so I'm just going to paste it here, and make some comments below that correspond to the colors... I apologize in advance that there are a lot of different things on that chart (so I hope your eyes don't get sore)...
Notes:
LEADING DIAGONALS (black lines) - Note that the top LD does not extend from the March 2000 highs, it extends from the "breakdown point" (in October 2000) when the rally was essentially "given up"... Wavers would associate that usually with the end of a P2... Notice on this chart that this LD could end up co-inciding with an END of P2 (at 1219.8) from the March '09 rally... Notice that the next LD crosses some important barriers... It crosses the TEST of the 89SMA (in the summer of '06), and it frankly cuts right through the "collapse" in '08, as is as well associated with the February '10 lows of 1044, and the most recent low of 1040... This is CLEARLY a line some do not want to cross...
If that is taken out, it's anybody's guess where the next support level might be...
- 1016 (where there is a chart gap)
- 1000 (technically insignificant - but psychological)
- 992 (modest chart support & right about on the 89SMA - which, if you follow the entire 2003-2007 advance, gave a pretty good indication of where the market was going to be supported...
HEAD & SHOULDERS (yellow shaded areas above LD's) - It's just interesting to me that the "bubble" part of '06-'08 had this aspect... Now there seems to be a new one forming (albeit one LD "fan line" below)
FRACTALS (green boxes) - I had a "whistling" video up as a thread last week... I just want to remind everyone how closely the late '07 fractal looked to the February-April '10 moonshot...
RISING LD'S (red lines) - It's pretty clear to see how the candles & 89SMA behaved from the '02 bottom... I tried as best I could to draw a parallel diagonal from the March '09 bottom... Mainly what you'll note is that, AT MINIMUM, it would seem that if the market can get itself wrapped around some positive news, a path like that is going to be tested... That's going to put us somewhere in the 800's (and probably THIS YEAR)... Some may argue that the Fed will come in & intervene beforehand, but I dismiss that... Why? When do they EVER do that? In fact, they do just the opposite... You had BB talking positive just yesterday (which the markets responded to for about an hour, then sold off)... The FED is out of bullets (save for QE)... The next round will come AFTER the S&P gets into the 800's NOT as a measure to prevent that from happening... Until then, they'll just keep saying things like back in '07 like, "Subprime is contained"... yada yada...
So the bottom line, to me, at the moment, is to consider how long SPX can withstand and hold off crashing through 1040... It seems to me that any break of that level will be pretty violent... It'll probably take us somewhere around 50 S&P points lower (and could extend further)...
I just wish it would just happen (and get it over with)... You'd be likely to see a nice bounce off the next level, which would lead to some good trading opportunities over the summer (both long & short)...
Good Luck!
In other news... While you were sleeping, Obama won the Stanley Cup (in his spare time)...
I think the question here is... Notwithstanding AMEN RA's hurricane icon... "Where are we"?... There are some minor FIBOS in play and some Leading Diagonals ("LD's") associated close to those levels, but right now that range is fairly broad (meaning there can be some huge intraday swings in the market that LOOK like something major happened, but that really don't resolve anything...
So this morning I decided to take a larger view... This is a WEEKLY chart on SPX (going back 10 years)... It's too complicated to annotate on the chart, so I'm just going to paste it here, and make some comments below that correspond to the colors... I apologize in advance that there are a lot of different things on that chart (so I hope your eyes don't get sore)...
Notes:
LEADING DIAGONALS (black lines) - Note that the top LD does not extend from the March 2000 highs, it extends from the "breakdown point" (in October 2000) when the rally was essentially "given up"... Wavers would associate that usually with the end of a P2... Notice on this chart that this LD could end up co-inciding with an END of P2 (at 1219.8) from the March '09 rally... Notice that the next LD crosses some important barriers... It crosses the TEST of the 89SMA (in the summer of '06), and it frankly cuts right through the "collapse" in '08, as is as well associated with the February '10 lows of 1044, and the most recent low of 1040... This is CLEARLY a line some do not want to cross...
If that is taken out, it's anybody's guess where the next support level might be...
- 1016 (where there is a chart gap)
- 1000 (technically insignificant - but psychological)
- 992 (modest chart support & right about on the 89SMA - which, if you follow the entire 2003-2007 advance, gave a pretty good indication of where the market was going to be supported...
HEAD & SHOULDERS (yellow shaded areas above LD's) - It's just interesting to me that the "bubble" part of '06-'08 had this aspect... Now there seems to be a new one forming (albeit one LD "fan line" below)
FRACTALS (green boxes) - I had a "whistling" video up as a thread last week... I just want to remind everyone how closely the late '07 fractal looked to the February-April '10 moonshot...
RISING LD'S (red lines) - It's pretty clear to see how the candles & 89SMA behaved from the '02 bottom... I tried as best I could to draw a parallel diagonal from the March '09 bottom... Mainly what you'll note is that, AT MINIMUM, it would seem that if the market can get itself wrapped around some positive news, a path like that is going to be tested... That's going to put us somewhere in the 800's (and probably THIS YEAR)... Some may argue that the Fed will come in & intervene beforehand, but I dismiss that... Why? When do they EVER do that? In fact, they do just the opposite... You had BB talking positive just yesterday (which the markets responded to for about an hour, then sold off)... The FED is out of bullets (save for QE)... The next round will come AFTER the S&P gets into the 800's NOT as a measure to prevent that from happening... Until then, they'll just keep saying things like back in '07 like, "Subprime is contained"... yada yada...
So the bottom line, to me, at the moment, is to consider how long SPX can withstand and hold off crashing through 1040... It seems to me that any break of that level will be pretty violent... It'll probably take us somewhere around 50 S&P points lower (and could extend further)...
I just wish it would just happen (and get it over with)... You'd be likely to see a nice bounce off the next level, which would lead to some good trading opportunities over the summer (both long & short)...
Good Luck!
In other news... While you were sleeping, Obama won the Stanley Cup (in his spare time)...
Chicago Blackhawks 4 - Philadelphia Flyers 3
And this is how those gracious Chicagoans treat their good fortune (by "mocking" the other teams players and insulting women athletes in the process)... CLASSY!
AmenRa's Corner
A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
Was that a rogue wave?
SPXBearish short day. 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is the new kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Back below the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline (wuss). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1071.59). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYSpinning top day (again). Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 85.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes. Acting like a cat ready to pounce.
VIXHammer day (uh oh bulls). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing Wednesdays did go down. Held the 23.6% retrace and still above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDSpinning top day (again). It's still confirming bullish piercing and is above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDSpinning top day (again). Looks similar to a four day continuation pattern (mat hold?). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Tested the fibo .2058 at 1.2028 (failed). Coming soon is the test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2201).
GSBearish long day. Getting weaker. Still diving below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. No test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).
BPBearish short day (not an inverted hammer because the upper shadow is too short). Closed way below the 14.6% retrace. Still below the 10 SMA. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 43.86.
HYG/LQDSpinning top day (again). Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).
---STRASBURG---
Takes the Field
The Warm-Up
First Major League Pitch
First Big League Cuts
Handwritten Scorecard - Insane
Strikes out the last 7 batters in a row... The plan was to take him out after 90 pitches NO MATTER WHAT... They could have let him continue in the game and he might have reached 20 strikeouts!
Insane!
More INSANE that I have him on my FANTASY BASEBALL SQUAD :-)