AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: You're confused? How do you think I feel when my havoc powers continue to be weakened?

SPX
Hammer day. Still below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) and the next lower trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1083.61). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. It's waiting for something (looks like it found it). Back above the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.29).



VIX
Bearish thrusting day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) but above the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.39).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still inching higher (a little profit taking perhaps?). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1225.00).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and tested the 23.6% retrace. And now testing the 4x1 Gann. It's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2878).



JNK
Bullish short day. Back above the 61.8% retrace. It has failed to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish thrusting day. Recent gap is still resistance (holding with a vengeance). Actually tested and held the 0.0% fibo retrace at 25.72 (again). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.22).



AUDJPY
Bullish short day. Still below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Had a change of mind and tested the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696 (passed 2x). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



TLT
Bearish thrusting day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Currently the gap is support. Resistance found at recent high? No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 102.03).



DJ TRANS AVG
Takuri day (or dragonfly doji which happens to work better in uptrends). Tested and held the trendline and the SMA(233). Still below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4452.13).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.20.10

A dull day if you just look at the numbers, but a thriller in the pits, I am sure. We opened with the AXE, Axel Weber, chopping a lump out of the Euro and causing the long bond to seek yet another new low yield, but this finally brought out sellers and the yield reversed up sharply in the afternoon. Spreads TIGHTENED by the end of the day, but HY had hung in well even in the morning.

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG -0.14%; JNK 0.31%; HYG 0.24%;
Govies: TLT -0.11%; IEI -0.23%; TIP -0.12%

We added to our hedge in the morning, and then we sat. Is this the beginning of a grind higher for HY? Will LB's SPREAD TIGHTENER bring him more fame and fortune, as did the now-legendary 2s30s FLATTENER? Will the exit of MARQUEE NAMES from the TREASURY SHORT space in macro HFs signal that it is now time to ... SHORT TREASURIES? Will LEFTBACK appear on BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE?

Watch this space....

Morning Audibles 8.20.10

OK so here's a quickie for OPEX Friday... Not much to report except that S&P futures are tanking and perched perilously on support... The SNB is reportedly selling Euros... The Government is lying to you... & there are people on TV who will tell you how to trade all this mess... Here's the quick rundown...

Senior NOAA Scientist Admits He Lied That Gulf Spill Oil Is Gone, Puts Administration's Spill-Disclosure "Credibility" In Question

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/senior-noaa-scientist-admits-he-lied-gulf-spill-oil-gone-puts-administrations-spill-disclosu

Top Oil Expert: Geology is “Fractured”, Relief Wells May Fail and Oil May Leak for Years … BP is Using a “Cloak of Silence”, and Refusing to Share Even Basic Data with the Government

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/top-oil-expert-geology-fractured-relief-wells-may-fail-and-oil-may-leak-years-bp-using-cloak

Treasuries Rise, Stocks Fall on Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-20/asian-stocks-decline-yen-strengthens-on-concern-global-growth-is-slowing.html

Hear that people? Stocks are falling because of "the economy" (so go back to your "Cheerios" - try not to spit them out as you read idiotic headline teasers).. Here's what it looks like on one of those fancy heat maps...

And all this could have been avoided if you didn't go out and buy that STUPID McMansion (on Bush's watch)...

Hey, but look, even if you made a poor decision (cause that bad man had you fooled), you can "double-down" & RE-FINANCE it on Obama's watch... Then take all your clothes off and go down to the beach and help him "kick somebodys ass"...

Brit millionaire offers one million dollar to streak naked in front of Obama

http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-22853.html

Confused as hell as to how you should trade all of this? Well, the FAST MONEY traders on CNBC got your back on that one (literally - they DO - they have your back squarely in the crosshairs of their high powered rife scope)... Your FIRST TRADE this morning (according to "Kelly"), should be to buy PUTS...

Also from Kelly... Buy TLT right after a meteoric rise...

I don't know about anybody else, but it seems like Kelly is trying to do this to your portfolio...

(Note: If the market REALLY tanks today - Kelly's trade may be a good one - but "FIRST TRADE"? - C'Mon Man)...We'll see how it goes, but if it doesn't work out, people around the FAST MONEY desk might be singing...

But that shouldn't be too hard... They've always been good for a nice SONG & DANCE...

SPX 60 min. 10 weeks

short yellow bus version

TBT

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Did you feel that? Want me to do it again?

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint from last Wednesdays candle is still holding strong. Back below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) and the next lower trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1089.47). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. It's waiting for something. Still below the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of the 50% retrace or SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.60).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) but above the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.01).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still inching higher (eyeing 1267 area). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1225.00).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. And still below the 3x1 Gann. But it's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3231).



JNK
Bearish short day. Not too much "risk on" today. Now below the 61.8% retrace. It has failed to close gap. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Recent gap is resistance (holding with a vengeance). Actually tested and held the 0.0% fibo retrace at 25.72. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.22).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Still below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Was heading for the 38.2% retrace at 77.8965. Had a change of mind and tested the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696 (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



TLT
Bullish long day. Way above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Currently the gap is support. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 102.03).




DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Now running towards the trendline. Back below the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4452.13).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.19.10

Another day of risk-off amusement for fixed income punters as yields plunged again after the really shitty Philly Fed number crossed at 10am. The 10y hit a low of 2.557% and the 30y 3.622%. This move reversed the morning's mild curve steepener and 2s10s finished at 210 bps.

Early in the day, IG and USTs were outperforming massively but HY made a strong comeback by the end of the day. Spreads widened at the long end and were fairly stable at the shorter end.

Corpies: LQD 0.11%; AGG 0.32%; JNK -0.20%; HYG -0.21%;
Govies: TLT 1.56%; IEI 0.18%; TIP 0.00%

We watched and waited this time, which was a good idea, and then we hedged in early afternoon. The yield on the long bond can't go down every day. Can it?

Morning Audibles 8.19.10

Have I told any of you how much I hate OPEX weeks? It shouldn't necessarily be that way, but in a market which is, um, not exactly fair to the average hack, it's a little hard rowing around in a tiny little boat when at any given moment one of the "TOO BIG TO JAIL" types might find themselves needing to defend a poor trade that they made implicitly with your tax dollars...


Speaking of taxes... I guess we're going to do C'MON MAN all week... This little gem from those wild & crazy "Bloomies"... (followed by my lunatic comments)...

Carbon Profit Grows on Trees as Kiwi Farmers Ditch Sheep

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-18/carbon-cash-accelerates-cull-of-new-zealand-sheep-as-farmers-turn-to-trees.html

Excerpt:

"Belching Cows, Sheep


The nation’s carbon-trading project was expanded in July to require energy producers to pay for their emissions. By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

I guess we all know what else cows & sheep do besides belch...

And, of course, this all begs the question... Let me re-state that last sentence... "By 2015, the system will include agriculture, forcing farmers to pay for emissions their cows and sheep make through belching."

Is this where we're going people? Let me try to examine how this is going to work in practice...

Let's "cut one" to the chase...We'll just call him/her the FARTING CZAR

Appointed by this guy, who is BUBBLING DEEPLY on the economics of it all...

Thou who smelt it, dealt it...

It'll apply to all "57" states... Oh no! beans! Don't eat them! Don't do it!

DOH! I warned you... That'll be a $10 fine son...

Wanna know what I think about your plan? Follow the instructions & find out...

"I think this is a BAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHD idea"

So do my brothers... Let's come up with a new idea, then you can decide...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane™: Somewhere there is a carry trade I should be imploding. Arigato yen.

SPX
Spinning top day. Trapped in yesterdays "hair". Midpoint from last Wednesdays candle is still holding. Held the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10) but above the next lower trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1127.24). QE2infinity.



DXY
Doji day. Still below the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Almost tested the 50% retrace and SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.60).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still holding below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below the SMA(89) and now the SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.01).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Resolved doji higher (again). Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still inching higher. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1215.40).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below 1.2935 (fib .1459) and the 38.2% retrace. Still below the 3x1 Gann. But it's above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3231).



JNK
Spinning top day. Not too much "risk on" here. Still above the 61.8% retrace. Still failing to close gap. Back above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.72).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Recent gap is resistance (still holding). Held above the 0.0% fibo retrace at 25.72. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.22).




AUDJPY
Bearish long day. Back below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Was heading for the 38.2% retrace at 77.8965. Had a change of mind and decided to head for the 23.6% retrace at 75.5696. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.1783).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day. Still running away from trendline. Still above the SMA(55) and SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4452.13).




AAPL
Spinning top day. Still below the SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 8.18.10

Today wasn't very interesting. The curve flattened slightly. Spreads were slightly narrower at the short end and slightly wider at the long end. POMO tomorrow.

Corpies: LQD 0.09%; AGG -0.11%; JNK 0.05%; HYG 0.17%;
Govies: TLT 0.27%; IEI -0.09%; TIP -0.06%

We did nothing. It was what we refer to technically as a shit trading day.