AmenRa's Corner + Weekend Open Thread

Creditcane has... In FACT... Actually hit St. Andrews...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCiAY10uRCs

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5385932&categoryid=2630020

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane smiled upon you this day.

SPX
Bearish long day. Delayed evening star confirmed. Yesterdays "tail" told the tale. Back below 1078.87 (fib using low). Back below the SMA(21) and further below the SMA(233). Midpoint barely above EMA(10). Back below the weekly 3LB mid. Did not hold the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 1096.48). QE2infinity.



DXY
Hammer day. Hair< 10% H-L. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 83.64).



VIX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint just below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid but above monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bearish long day. Below the SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1234.80).



EURUSD
Doji day. Start of an evening star? Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above the SMA(89). Couldn't hold the fib .1459 of 1.2935. There is a weekly 3LB reversal. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2702).



JNK
Bearish long day. Couldn't hold the 50.0% retrace. Still below the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. GS ran through the SMA(55) and tested the SMA(89) but failed. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (passed). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. There is a weekly 3LB reversal. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 138.06).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day again. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).



LUMBER
Bearish short day. Still above the SMA(21). Almost closed above the weekly 3LB mid. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 195.00).



BP
Bearish harami day. Still above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested the 23.6% retrace yesterday and failed. Now back below the SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 28.74).

Morning Audibles 7.16.10 - Shake Rattle & Roll

I knew I wasn't dreaming...


CV awoke early in this morning to a small rumble that built up rather quickly in intensity enough to be felt in a fairly interesting way... It probably didn't last for more than 8-10 seconds... But it was unmistakeable to me (who lived in Los Angeles for 13 years)... That was an EARTHQUAKE...


I was too sleepy to get out of bed to check the computer and verify, but lo and behold...

D.C. rattled by area's largest recorded earthquake

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38274327/ns/us_news-life

At the time, I knew it wasn't all that big, my guess was something close to a "4" (which is a "kiddy ride" for So Cal-ers), but is VERY unusual for these parts...

CV has been through some big ones before (including the "Northridge Quake", a 6.7) where I was living in, um, NORTHRIDGE at the time (actually visiting with, and staying with, a friend there)...

Within 6 months of the "Northridge Quake", CV moved to "Italy" (no connection), where a few years later, in Perugia, we were hit by the "Assissi Quake".

So the lesson here? There is none... This "little" one here is sure to get a lot of press locally, and LAUGHED at by people that live on active fault lines...

People who live in earthquake zones know that there are all kinds of different factors that go in to what a earthquake "feels" like...

- The intensity (actual number on the richter scale).
- How far you happen to be from the epicenter (CV "happened" to only be about 8 miles from ROCKVILLE as the crow flies, so even though this one was small, I felt it pretty large... Probably ahab too, ben, maybe? but probably not).
- whether it is a "jolting", or "rolling" type.
- The duration.
- What kind of structure you happen to be in at the time.
- The aftershocks (or pre-shocks).

So-Cal-ers even have "other" finely tuned senses... There are some days that a So-Cal-er will stop and just look around and say "this is EARTHQUAKE WEATHER"... Which, silly as it seems, is often accurate...

So, to wrap things up, this was not even NEAR the strongest earthquake I've ever experienced... I've probably been through more than 100... Probably only a dozen were noteworthy... 2-3 were downright scary... 1 I thought I was going to die...

This one was... MEH, an earthquake... But kind of cool (unusual) that it's happening in this region...

I now return you to your markets...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane caused some damage but the magic elves repaired most of the damage before the day ended.

SPX
High wave day. An evening star forced was to implode. The "tail" tells the direction the market wants to go. Still above 1078.87 (fib using low). Still above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB mid. Somehow held the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). New high on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1077.96). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Euro correlation back in fashion. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)? The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 83.82).



VIX
Doji day (almost a gravestone doji). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21). Refused to close below the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Below the SMA(21) and tested the SMA(55) but failed (again 2x). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above the SMA(89). Tested and closed right at the fib .1459 of 1.2935. Tested weekly 3LB reversal and passed. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2680).



JNK
Bearish short day (again). Still above the 50.0% retrace. Still below the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. GS is ran through the SMA(55). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 (failed but AH going wild). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 went on vacation for now. Now above weekly 3LB reversal price. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 135.83).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day again. Tested the 14.6% retrace (failed). Midpoint now below EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).



WTI
Doji day. Still above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.98).



BP
Bullish long day. Still above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested the 23.6% retake (failed). Closed above the SMA(55). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.74).

Morning Audibles 7.15.10 - The Beatings Will Continue (redux)

Another bad night for BUCKY...

---(from ZH)---
John R Taylor Jr.
Chief Investment Officer


"This week, the US equity market is starting its quarterly earnings ritual and the odds favor a strong performance for the closely followed investor favorites. Although the game is rigged as almost 50% of the corporate managements have adjusted their guidance in the past month trying to lower analysts’ projections down to levels that the companies know they can beat. Despite the opera buffa quality of the process, the S&P 500 companies will still produce a dramatic increase in earnings over the second quarter of 2009. The same can be said of the major European corporations. The increase in corporate earnings and the projection of further increases seems to be universal, and many argue that the positive outlook for thousands of individual companies must sum to an impressive economic recovery."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-cash-now-king-worthless-or-not-so-buy-dollars

---


What appears quite obvious, to CV, in the first few days of Q310 is the same phenomenon which occurred in Q210, Q110, Q409, Q309, Q209... 


1. Ramp up equities in the first few trading weeks of the quarter to make your quarterly nut. (If you'd have bought SPX 1010, you'd be up almost 8%)...
2. Slowly distribute those winnings into something relatively safe & liquid for the rest of the quarter. Start with the 3 b's... "bills, bonds, bucky"...
3. Get out of dodge & window dress the last 6 weeks...
4. Indulge yourself in some other "b's... (babes, bikinis, & blow)...


It's still early in Q310... We're just getting to the post FASB bank "earnings" sham, and the high profile tech earnings (whose "guidance", on the conference calls, is always highly correlated to the notion of a weak dollar)...


So in a macro sense, (despite CV's overall BULLISHNESS on the dollar), give it a few more days to get bucky as cheap as possible for the the alpha-dogs to buy at a discount...

then get themselves off to the Hamptons for the rest of the summer and share stories about their mastery of the universe...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane: Knock knock. Market: Who's there? Creditcane: It's me. Now let me in. It's my turn...

SPX
Doji day. An evening star perhaps? But don't tell the algos. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) has fallen asleep waiting for a retest. Closed above 1078.87 (fib using low). Still above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1070.25). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Move running out of steam? Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 84.08).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21). Held the SMA(144). Back above the SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Below the SMA(21) and tested the SMA(55) but failed (again). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. Tested weekly 3LB reversal and passed. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2654).



JNK
Bearish short day. Possible bearish harami. Still above the 50.0% retrace. Now above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day. GS is running away from the SMA(55). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 131.14).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Tested the 14.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.27).



LUMBER
Doji day. Almost a gravestone doji but not enough hair (upper shadow). Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 183.60).



XRT
Bearish harami day (also a spinning top). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.31).

Morning Audibles 7.14.10 - Storm the Bastille

Let's STORM THE BASTILLE! (18th century version of "let's TORCH THE JOINT")...

I suppose it would be rare for something like that to occur nowadays... After all, it wasn't so much intellectual "dissatisfaction" that prompted a revolution, it was HUNGER...


During the reign of Louis XVI, France faced a major economic crisis...


There are ample volumes of history written about the events which led to the eventual FLASHPOINT(S)... The "Storming of the Bastille" being actually the 3rd in the sequence (Interestingly, the Bastille, a prison, only held 7 prisoners at the time, but it it what it "represented" (peasants vs. royalty) that made it important... Factually though, it was more STRATEGIC in that it housed an arsenal of weapons (which is really what the mobs were after)...


During the public demonstrations that started on 12 July the multitude displayed busts of Necker and of Louis Philippe II, Duke of Orléans. The crowd clashed with the Royal German Cavalry Regiment ("Royal-Allemande") between the Place Vendôme and the Tuileries Palace. The Royal commander, Baron de Besenval, fearing the results a blood bath amongst the poorly armed crowds or defections amongst his own men, withdrew the cavalry towards Sèvres. Meanwhile, unrest was growing among the people of Paris who due to their hostility against the Fiscal Legislation of State's Farmers, started attacking customs posts blamed for causing increased food and wine prices. The people of Paris started to plunder any place where food, guns and supplies could be hoarded. The next day, on 13 July, rumours spread that supplies were being hoarded at Saint-Lazare, a huge property of the clergy, which functioned as convent, hospital, school and even as a jail. An angry mob broke in and plundered the property, seizing 52 wagons of wheat which were taken to the public market. That same day multitudes of people plundered many other places including weapon arsenals. The Royal troops did nothing to stop the spreading of social chaos in Paris...


With 40,000,000 Americans on FOOD stamps (that's about 1 in 9 as you stand in a checkout line and look around you), at least most are getting FED (which is why they're not FED UP, yet)... Likely, that same one that is getting fed in this manner is banging out text messages to their friends on an electronic device that requires a vast array of microchips to get the message from one tomato can, through the string, and to another tomato can...


Of course we, like, know, like, OMG, that like, that message, is like, sooooooooooo important... We probably also know that those devices are going to be like, totally ancient  in like, 6 months, and like, OMG, it would be so like, embarrassing to have anything but like the most rad new model...


So this little fable is CV's "feeble" attempt to connecting the events of July 14th, 1789 with INTC's "record" quarter (and how to understand that, and QUANTIFY it in the slow motion train wreck that is the American economy)... Ironically, one of the reasons that the French economy was so bad back in that time was because of the money it lent to the United States in its war of independence from the British Empire...


More well spent capital...


Retail sales coming up at 8:30...


Let's see how OTHER "geniuses" are spending their capital (and/or PHD's "cooking books" to make it appear as if it's being spent wisely)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane has answered the phone and will be returning soon.

SPX
Bullish long day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) has fallen asleep waiting for a retest. Closed above 1078.87 (fib using low). Still above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1070.25). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Now below the 61.8% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 84.43).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55),the SMA(21) & SMA(89). Held the SMA(144) wink wink. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Below the SMA(21) and tested the SMA(55) but failed. Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. Tested weekly 3LB reversal but failed. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2623).



JNK
Bullish long day (takuri go banzai). Tested the 50.0% retrace (passed) and the 61.8% retrace (failed). Now above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish short day. GS is fighting back (cue Rocky theme). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Tested SMA(55) and failed. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 131.14).



AAPL
Bearish short day. Still below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Tested the SMA(89) and passed. Still below trendline using recent lows. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day (the possible dragonfly doji ran into the windshield). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 29.27).



BP
Hammer day that has followed the 3rd real gap in this move. Still above the 14.6% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tony, there is a disturbance in the force. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 27.02).