WEEKEND EDITION

Tilapia nilotica have become the culinary opposite of catfish: they actually taste good without breading and spices. Members of the Cichlid family from East Africa, the several tilapia species and their hybrid sub-varieties, look much like snappers or perch, and can live in either fresh or brackish (salty) water. These "perfect fish" are 98% vegetarian, thrive on agricultural waste, and grow rapidly in relatively high temperatures...



Tilapia has been dubbed "the aquatic chicken", because it can be grown in a variety of situations from backyards to intensive "battery" farms...

By expanding the uses of indoor systems, tilapia production could expand in areas closer to major markets. U.S. growers can focus on fresh and live fish sold at a premium price compared to imported frozen filets. Tilapia production is already dispersed throughout the United States...

Some growers have experimented with mixing hydroponic vegetable growing with Tilapia production... These hydroponic gardens can be scaled to any dimension (and are even a solution for URBAN environments because plants can grow with 2% of the normal H2O use, don't require agriculture fertilizers, and because they are pest free, don't require poison pest controls...

Overall consumption rates in developed nations have increased fantastically in the last decade. More importantly, poor quality frozen imports have lost market share and higher quality fresh and frozen imports have gained share. If you hated it the last time you tried it, its time to try again:

Various South American and Asian nations have emerged as major US and European suppliers of high quality tilapia filets. One way to stay clear of the careless third world aquaculture of Tilapia, is to "Homesource"; and one way to do that is by getting some background from the American Tilapia Association. They have a link to US-based tilapia farms...

There is little chance of the exotic Tilapia surviving year round in the natural temperate waters of the northern half of the US or far northern Europe. In warm regions, however, they can become pests that disrupt native ecosystems...

Being bottom feeders essentially (in nature), yet TOP FEEDERS in tanks, they are vulnerable to rapidly bio-accumulating pollutants that concentrate in sediments. Which is another reason to favor "quality" farm razed fish over wild, (the closer to home, the better)...

Nutrition is outstanding...

There are many delicious and simple recipes: The most basic - fry in virgin olive oil with garlic and black pepper. Salt and sprinkle fresh lime juice before serving.

Anyway, mine is up and running...

AmenRa's Corner

Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...


SPX
Bearish short day. Closed above 1110.02 (fibo .09) so a retest of 1151.86 (fibo .0557) may happen. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 144 SMA and FAILED. There has been a weekly 3LB reversal with reversal now 1217.18. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1173.60. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish harami day. Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Tested 85.11 (fibo .1459) and failed (again). Go Bucky Go Bucky. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bullish LONGER day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear has arrived in all its glory. Tested and closed well above the fibo retrace of 23.6%. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 23.84. Also has closed above monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Doji day. Could be start of an evening star. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The retest of previous high 1226.40 may be in trouble. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1180.70.



EURUSD
Bullish harami day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 4x). Fibo level of 1.2935 has been decimated. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish thrusting day (aka failure to rally). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 233 SMA and passed. RISK OFF REPEAT RISK OFF. No daily 3LB reversal changes. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint still below 10 SMA. Closed back above 21 SMA. Tested the 76.4% retrace and passed. No daily 3LB changes.



XRT
Bearish short day. Trading below 10 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 42.51. Still trending down on the daily 3LB.

Morning Audibles 5.7.10 - You've Been MacGrubered

I heard many different anecdotes of people trying to log in to thier online accounts during the "Flash Crash" (as they described it)... Some made it in, some didn't, then most of the exchanges decided to nullify all trades which exceeded 60% on the move...

All of this is just funny to CV... Well, really not funny, so much as sad...


Andy T wrote (in the comment section), that an incident like that which occurred yesterday exposes where the WEAK BIAS is in the system... Truer words have never been spoken...

I'm not simply talking about TRADING ALGORITHMS here, or EXCHANGES... I'm referring to our entire financial system (which - is is in the throes of trying to be guided by "invisible forces" that they call PPT's, and QE's, and other things that only sophisticated IVY LEAGUERS are supposed to know about)...

They're all geniuses! Just like this guy here... (CV anticipates the same eventual conclusion to the story)...


AmenRa's Corner

Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...


SPX
Takuri line day (a monster one at that). Tested the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87 but closed higher. Closed below 1151.86 fibo (using high) meaning 1110.02 (fibo .09) is next. That got tested too. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and FAILED. Even tested the 89, 144 and 233 SMA's. Only failed the 89. Now below the weekly 3LB reversal of 1166.59. Trendline what? New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1183.71. Now trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day (go figure). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Tested the 61.8% retrace and passed. Tested 85.11 (fibo .1459) and failed (retest soon). Go Bucky Go Bucky. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 82.38.



VIX
Bullish LONG day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is in the air. Tested all fibo retraces and passed all but the 161.8%.. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 22.81.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. Wants to retest previous high of 1226.40. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1171.30.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day (3rd one in a row). Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 3x). Fibo level of 1.2935 has been decimated. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3189.



JNK
bearish "short" day. Body too short for hammer and lower shadow too short for Takuri (go figure). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 233 SMA and failed. RISK OFF REPEAT RISK OFF. New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 40.13. Now trending down on the daily 3LB.



30YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Now below the 233 SMA. Next weeks auction is a lock. Bid to cover may hit 10 or greater. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 45.27.



GS
Bearish long day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Shot through previous low of 147.81 and now below 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. CPR is being failing. Coma has been induced. New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 160.24.



AAPL
Takuri line day. Immense fear sent the stock down through all SMA's. Fear cares not for the iPad. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 270.83.



Issues A/D & Volume A/D
Just a quick look at how bad it really was.

Morning Audibles 5.6.10 A Hugh Hendry Sighting

My good friend Hugh Hendry was spotted on "Crosstalk". Whenever there is a Hugh Hendry sighting, it's best to just sit back and enjoy his gems of wisdom. CV won't muck up the experience and therefore offers it as a "stand alone"...

Enjoy!

AmenRa's Corner (TPC Week Version)

Stick mastery ALWAYS draws an audience...


SPX
Spinning top day (first two days could be start of a morning star pattern). Back below the 1.764 fibo (using low) of 1176.22 (meaning the 1.707 at 1138.21 is next). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 55 SMA and passed. Now below the weekly 3LB reversal of 1166.59. Closed below the trendline. New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1210.65. Now trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day (possible hammer - too much upper shadow). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Go Bucky Go Bucky. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 82.15.



VIX
Bearish high wave day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Fear is in the air. Tested the 14.6% fibo retrace and passed. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 18.36.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 2x). Next fibo level of 1.2935 has been decimated. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Well below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3209.



JNK
Takuri line (or hammer with a long lower shadow). Buyers rejected the lower prices. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 144 SMA and failed. Previous high of 40.21 was held with ease. New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal still 40.20.



30YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Still below the 144 SMA. Next weeks auction is in the bag (snark). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 45.61.




GS
Doji day. Midpoint still below the 10 SMA. Held the previous low of 147.81 and above 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. CPR is being administered. No daily 3LB changes.



The PIGS
Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain all are trading under all SMA's on the daily charts. Kaboom!





The Bond Report 5.5.10 - (courtesy of LB)

THE WORLD
It's NOT Enough

Phew! Another FTQ day. I wonder what a sovereign default would look like. There is a whiff of Systemic Risk in the air in Europe. Even US IG was sold today, and investors grabbed the 2y Ts, which we hate. The low yield of the day was 2.24% on 5y, 3.49% on 10y and 4.32% on 30y. So if we get a range trade for a while, those levels are now firm resistance.

Corpies: LQD -0.43%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -1.57%; HYG –1.37%;

Govies: TLT 0.59%; IEI 0.33%; TIP 0.05%

A modest hedge was blown out early this morning. We sold some 5y Ts and hedged the long end again into the close, anticipating a World Not Ending trade tomorrow. It is likely that bargain hunters will be out in the credit markets at least. Although we don't really see Greece and Portugal as bargains..

Morning Audibles 5.5.10 - Cinquo de Mayo

Not many people know it, but Nevada used to be part of Mexico. It all started with the Spanish conquistadors. Exploring expeditions in the 16th, 17th and 18th Centuries allowed Spain to lay claim to a vast portion of North America, stretching from Florida to California, and from Tierra del Fuego at the southernmost point of South America to what is now the Canadian border. The Spanish called their vast empire in North America “New Spain.” It lasted for nearly three hundred years.

After the French revolution, Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Spain and made his brother, Jerome, king of that country. Jerome sold a large parcel of New Spain to Napoleon, who in turn sold it to the United States – the Louisiana Purchase.

With the overthrow of the Spanish monarchy by the French, the Spanish colonists in both North and South America grew restless. In Mexico, the colonists declared their independence and established the independent country of Mexico on September 16, 1810.

Like many newly-established countries, it took a while for Mexico to settle upon a form of government. The country was administered by the Generalissimo of the American Armies (1810-1811); the Supreme Governing Junta of America, also called the Supreme Junta of the Nation (1811-1813); a Generalissimo of the North American Armies in charge of the Executive (1813-1814); an Executive Power (1814); several Presidents (1814-1815); a non-functioning Executive Commission (1815-1817); a President of the Provisional Governing Junta (1821); a President of the Regency of the Empire (1821-1822); an Emperor (1822-1823); a President of the Constituent Congress (1823), by Presidents of the Supreme Executive Power (1823-1824); and from 1824, by Presidents of the Federal Republic of Mexico.

This turbulent era also saw a number of wars, which reduced the territory of Mexico by over one-third. In the north, the state of Tejas seceded in 1835, forming the Republic of Texas in 1836. Shortly after the Republic of Texas became one of the United States in 1845, another war broke out. This war (the “Mexican War” of 1846-1848) was a disaster for Mexico. The United States annexed all of the northern part of that country, which included the present-day states of California, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Idaho, Montana, and parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and Washington.

After the Mexican War, more troubles were in store for the Republic of Mexico. In an effort to end the economic stranglehold of the Catholic Church over the land and people, Mexico adopted a new constitution, and in 1857 the country broke down into civil war (la guerra de la Reforma, “the War of the Reform”). The combatants in the fighting were the Liberals and Conservatives. The Liberal faction was headed by Benito Juárez (Benito Pablo Juárez García), Mexico’s greatest statesman, whose capitol was at Vera Cruz. The United States gave its diplomatic recognition to this government. The Conservatives, with their capitol at Mexico City, had several leaders, the most prominent of which was General Félix Zuloaga (Félix María Zuloaga Trillo). By 1860, the Liberal party prevailed, and Benito Juárez took control of Mexico at the end of the year.

At the same time, the United States was sliding into a civil war of its own. Following the election of Abraham Lincoln in November of 1860, most of the southern states seceded and formed the Confederate States of America. When the Confederate troops of South Carolina bombarded and then forced the surrender of the US garrison at Fort Sumter in April of 1861, the War of the Rebellion began and raged until May, 1865 -- four long years.

In Mexico, the various factions that fought their civil war had borrowed large sums of money from foreign creditors. The fighting devastated Mexico’s economy, and the country had to suspend payments on its debts. Taking advantage of the relative weakness of the United States during the US Civil War, in December of 1861 the governments of France, Great Britain and Spain landed an allied military force at Vera Cruz to protect their interests in Mexico and to try to collect the debts owed to their citizens. Juárez negotiated with the allies and promised to resume payments, and the British and Spanish troops began to withdraw from Mexico in April, 1862.


The French, however, did not withdraw and instead sent reinforcements to their troops in Mexico. At the time France was ruled by Louis Napoleon, the nephew of Napoleon Bonaparte. Louis Napoleon was elected President of France, but after the election he proclaimed himself Napoleon III, Emperor of the French (the British referred to him as “the nephew of the uncle”).

While negotiations for the Mexican government to repay its debts were ongoing, the French commander, General Charles Ferdinand Latrille, comte (Count) de Lorencez, advanced on Mexico City from Vera Cruz, occupying the mountain passes which led down into the Valley of Mexico.

At this point it became clear that Napoleon III planned to turn Mexico into a colony. The French advance was along a route that had been used several times in the past to conquer Mexico, first by the conquistador Hernan Cortes and most recently by US General Winfield Scott during the Mexican War.

France declared war on Mexico, and called on those Mexicans who had fought on the side of the Conservative Party in the civil war to join them. Napoleon III planned to turn Mexico into an empire ruled by Archduke Ferdinand Maximilian Josef von Habsburg, the younger brother of the Emperor of Austria-Hungary.



Historians, of course, would tell you "the more things change, the more they stay the same" (advice which seems to be lost in the "JOHNNY come lately" world of WSWB)...

All the "sophistication" that technology has awarded us  in the past sesquicentennial seems to have simply been transferred to electrons and balance sheets...



Nevertheless, the world (and ALL these players), seem to always find themselves between the same ROCK, and the same HARD PLACE)...



Sigh... Have no fear though... The ECB is meeting in Lisbon this afternoon, and I'm sure they'll sort it all out...


They're probably calling this guy here as we speak... You know, to see if he left any BAZOOKAS lying around...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day (opening marubozu). Back below the 1.764 fibo (using low) of 1176.22 (meaning the 1.707 at 1138.21 is next). Midpoint way below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested the 21 SMA and FAILED. Also it's BELOW the weekly 3LB mid of 1191.94 (hip hip hooray). Closed above the .0344 fibo (using high) of 1177.84. Held the trendline. New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1217.28. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day (correlation regained). Midpoint well above 10 SMA (uptrend). Go Bucky Go Bucky. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 80.51.



VIX
Bullish long day. The 61.8% fibo ext (support) rules. Tested the 14.6% fibo retrace and passed. Closed above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 16.14.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again). Closed below previous of 1.3253. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (almost there). Closed back below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.3315.



JNK
Bearish long day (resolved those 4 doji days). Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). Tested 55 SMA and failed. Previous high of 40.21 was held with ease. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 40.20.



XLE
Bearish long day. Tested 55 SMA and passed. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Daily 3LB reversal down with reversal now 60.63.




SLV
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint now below 10 SMA. Closed back below 21 SMA. 2 days of indecision decided. No daily 3LB changes.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.