AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane currently inflicting pain on the bears. Time for a 180.



SPX
Bullish short day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) waiting for retest. Back above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1027.37). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 61.8% retrace (passed again). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 84.72).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55) and the SMA(21). Tested the SMA(89) and passed again. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Now above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2557).



JNK
Bearish short day. Possible dark cloud cover but the first day is candle body is too small. Tested the 50.0% retrace (passed). Back above the SMA(233) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. Rope broke on hanging man from yesterday. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 131.08).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Midpoint now above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 29.27).




WTI
Bullish short day. Back above the SMA(21), SMA(55), but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 71.98).



LUMBER
Doji day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still having trouble retaking the weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB (reversal is 183.60).

Morning Audibles 7.9.10 - Prepare for The Prestige

Doesn't it just seem that way?


You all know what "A PRESTIGE" is, it's ACT III of a magic act, it's where the magician has carefully drawn in the rapt attention of the audience and then lowers the boom... Well here, this describes it...




We all know (or should know) that the MARKETS are not, I repeat ARE NOT the ECONOMY... That's why we can have weeks (short 4 day ones) as is the case of this past week, that the magicians have many rabbits in hats, and aces in sleeves to keep one distracted... 


The thing is this... "Timed" correctly (and every good magician knows that timing IS, THE, key element)... The illusion has time to grow in peoples minds (believing it is real)... 


Frankly, this started with some late day maneuverings in the S&P cash before the 4th of July holiday even began... A kick save to the market to prevent it from dipping under 1000 and bumming everyone out... A 3 day weekend ensued, whereby FUTURES were already looking at 1002 before the Tuesday open... Somehow, a save was managed there as well, and Tuesday opened strong (only to falter)... The "propaganda" machine was then turned up (as famous bear "Doug Kass" comes out with  a "the low is in" call), and what? a decent LUXURY GOODS report?


By Wednesday, there is a huge "meltup" (on crummy volume) which takes the indices over what had been some technical levels (of questionable importance, more "psychological" in the grand scheme of things)... Followed by another meltup (on even CRUMMIER volume) yesterday... 


So now we're here on a Friday again... The chatter will surely be about "shorts covering" into the weekend, Monday meltups (as they have been particularly favorable for BULLS since 3/09), gap closures, good earnings season rumors, successful stress tests in Europe, etc.


Frankly, if you're a BEAR, this is what you want... The last thing you need is negative talk on a day like this... You want BULLS going home happy this weekend...


But the REAL TRUTH is... As far as much more upside potential is concerned, there's no where else to go...




Different people have different numbers on this... Some of those numbers range from the 1070 level on the S&P, all the way up to 1110... (CV - FWIW is "hoping" to see something in the 1080-1084 range)... It'll look like the bulls will have cleared all hurdles at that point, but then, Cleveland fans, you're superstar will hold a news conference and telling you he's skipping town to go join his buddies in South Beach... It was never about YOU and your HOPES and LOYALTY anyway... 




Had you fooled there... Presto! Change-O!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Don't ask...



SPX
Bullish short day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) waiting for retest. Still below the SMA(21) and the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the trendline using 2010 lows but below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1022.58). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 61.8% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 84.72).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid & monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55) and the SMA(21). Tested the SMA(89) and passed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Yesterday was a plastic hammer day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Now above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2557).



JNK
Bullish short day. Tested the 50.0% retrace (passed). Back above the SMA(233) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Hanging man day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 131.08).



BP
Spinning top day (body too large for doji). The little engine that could. Still above below the 0.0% retrace (using recent low). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.68).



LUMBER
Doji day. Still above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Having trouble retaking the weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB (reversal is 183.60).

Morning Audibles 7.8.10 - Doesn't Add Up


The January correction printed a low of 1044 (on February 6th)... Since then we had the FLASH CRASH (1065), followed by two raps on the door at 1040 and 1042 (which produced mild rallies)... Finally the S&P crashed through the 1040 barrier and closed 4 straight days both UNDER 1040 and UNDER the trend line from the January highs (1150) following through the subsequent low closes...
My question is... Why all the waiting and effort to get through 1040, then, after you finally do it, & doomsday is nigh (you even have the PERMABULLS on Fast Money saying "we're going way way lower"), you have DARK CROSSES, you have debt crises in Europe which haven't been solved, you have NO NEW talk about QE2, aircraft carrier units in the Straits of Hormuz, oil washing into Lake Ponchatrain...

What do you do?... You bust through 1040 (the number everyone was saying needed to be HELD AT ALL COSTS or it was the end of the world)... And then, upon "seeing the other side"? Meh - You mosey around with a few closes in the 1020's, print 1010 for a minute or two, go to a weekend barbecue and you're done with it?
Because Doug Kass says the "bottom is in"? Because of a perky luxury goods number?

Last week, it seemed the PPT was defending 1000 at all costs... Where was the SURGE PROTECTION TEAM on a 3+% up day? And anyway, the call Kass made wasn't until the SPX had regained 1040...
Whatever, these markets seem like a total joke (and probably are), and trying to justify price movements as I'm doing now is certainly an exercise in folly... But that's what we do...

Here it is again... My final take...

SPX UP 3.13% (on low volume)

The volume associated with the 4 "tall white" candlesticks (the ONLY ones which managed to materialize out of the last 32 trading days) was... 500.9 million, 395.5 million, 240 million and 248 million today... And gee, the PRIOR 3 were antecedent to the DARK CROSS...

On the other end... We find...

10 year note @ 2.98

Is there... PERHAPS... Something wrong with this picture?


AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



These rogue waves are merciless.



SPX
Bullish long day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested and passed. Still below the SMA(21) and the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. Daily 3LB reversal (reversal now 1022.58). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 84.72).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed below weekly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(55) and the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bullish thrusting day. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1240.70).



EURUSD
Hammer day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and passed (again). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2481).



JNK
Bullish long day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed) but failed the 50.0% retrace test. Back above the SMA(233) and the SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 131.08).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? It's coming. Is the Fed getting worried yet? BB is totally bald now.



XRT
Bullish piercing day. Midpoint still below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.12).

7.7.10 - Part 2

I hope GOOGLE doesn't think they're ever going to be able to make people PAY for BLOGGER...

Morning Audibles 7.7.10 - The Beatings Will Continue





Obama Says Direct Israeli-Palestinian Talks May Be Imminent: (Translation: Israeli missiles will be flying towards Iranian nuclear reactors soon, and we're here to help).


Excerpt:
July 7 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama said direct Israel-Palestinian talks may get started within less than three months, praising Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a leader prepared to take “risks for peace.”

Translation: It'll be much easier to "talK" to the Palestinian Authority after their funding is cut off... Next headline, BP takes "risk for closing spill" by detonating a nuke...

The fact that the president suggested that direct talks are imminent means “he knows something that we don’t,” Aaron David Miller, a public policy scholar at the Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said in a telephone interview.

Translation: The President knows that the US has placed a aircraft carrier unit on the Straits of Hormuz... Imminent talks? You betcha!

“What Obama now understands is that fighting with the Israelis is inevitable and appropriate if it driven by a strategy that can ultimately make the president, Israel and the Arabs look good,” said Miller, who was a member of the U.S. mediating team for Middle East peace efforts under former Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush.

Translation: Especially if it makes "the President" look good... And he could use a convenient distraction at the moment with the DOW crashing and oil soaked seagulls...

---

Krugman Says U.S. Economy Is Facing a ‘Long Siege’ 

Excerpt(s):
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the U.S. should have a “kitchen-sink strategy” that uses all fiscal and monetary policies possible to prevent the economy from sliding back into a recession.

Translation: Didn't Hilary (and others) try that "kitchen sink" thing before?



- At a time when European countries such as Germany are calling for austerity measures to rein in budget deficits, Krugman is calling for more stimulus to prevent a repeat in the U.S. of Japan’s decade of economic malaise in the 1990s.

- “The most effective things you can do, in terms of actual bang for the buck, is actually having the federal government go out and hire people,” he said. “We are deep in the hole here, and you need to be unconventional to get out of it.”

Translation: Prof. Krugman, YOU SIR, are in the deepest hole of all...

He said too many policy makers and commentators are overly concerned that the ballooning U.S. deficit would set off a crisis of confidence similar to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. “I worry about the politics,” he said. “I worry about our ability to get a consensus to do the pretty straight-forward things we need to do to balance our budget in the long run.”

Translation: How about "passing a 2010 budget" for starters?

The projected U.S. budget gap in 10 years can be brought under control with a “combination of modest tax increases and reasonable spending cuts,” particularly on health care, Krugman said, adding it’s “extremely unlikely” the U.S. would ever default on its debt.

Translation: How about "passing a 2010 budget" for starters? As for taxes... Do you mean "tax hikes" like these? http://www.atr.org/sixmonths.html?content=5171

“I’m not aware of any example of a country that got into fiscal difficulty because it began a stimulus program and couldn’t take away the stimulus program,” he said.




“If you’re serious about fiscal responsibility, you should not be saying, ‘let’s skimp on aid to the economy in the middle of a financial crisis.’”

Translation: How about "passing a 2010 budget" for starters?

“We are, I think, sliding into a situation where we’re likely to see several bad years ahead,” Krugman said. “Given what I see in the political process, the odds are against us avoiding a really prolonged bad period.”

Translation: Moynihan (below), would disagree with you...

---

Liquidate, liquidate, liquidate
Commentary: Some inconvenient facts about fiscal austerity

Excerpt(s):

- A possible corollary in the context of the present rip-roaring debate about the macroeconomic impact of our dawning age of fiscal consolidation and austerity is that Nobel Laureates, especially, aren't allowed to make up their own history.

- So Professor Joseph Stiglitz please get out your copy of "Historical Statistics of the United States" and, after perusal of the GNP and government finance tables, consider retracting your preposterous statement on CNBC last week that federal spending cutbacks caused the Great Depression. Perhaps you might copy Professor Krugman while you're at it.

- When the public's new-found enthusiasm for autos, appliances, and home goods couldn't be funded by these new lines of credit, winnings from the stock market were available to make up the difference. While buying durables and stocks on credit is not an original sin, a central bank policy that caused consumers to plunge off the deep end into unaffordable debt possibly is. In any event, after the music stopped in late 1929, durable goods purchases virtually ceased through the mid-1930s.

---

Ah, hell with it... This is REALLY why the S&P can't catch a bid (other than PPT, MOMOS, & Kass)...

Lindsay Lohan Is Sentenced to 90 Days in Jail


Clearly, Ms. Lohan has seen better days (along with most of the other protagonists in todays narrative)...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



The creditcane took a vacation day but it would like everyone to know that it's still here.



SPX
Doji day. 1041.83 (fibo .09 from high) tested and failed. Well below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the trendline using 2010 lows and below the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1041.24). Trending down on daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated. Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 85.31).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held weekly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Still above the SMA(55) and above the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bearish long day. Confirmed bullish thrusting. Below the SMA(21) and below the SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 1240.70).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Evening star went supernova. Midpoint above the EMA(10). No test of the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) is on hold again. Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and passed (really? I mean c'mon). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.2387).



JNK
Doji day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (failed). Still below the SMA(233) but above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day. Midpoint below the EMA(10). Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 133.44).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.32). Can you say 2.0%? YES. Is the Fed getting worried yet? HELL YES 10x.



WTI
Doji day. Morning star may be fizzling out. Back below the SMA(21), SMA(55), and SMA(233). Midpoint below the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.94).



LUMBER
Bearish short day. Closed above the SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Couldn't stay above weekly 3LB mid (again). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 183.60).

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.