Weekend Timeouts

- FANTASY SPORTS NATION HOMEPAGE -

As I stated last week... I'm going to continue to publish a weekend 'feature' game (NCAA or NFL) here in this space (as well as a link to the blogspace I'm running now which deals exclusively with NCAA/NFL Football & Fantasy Sports)...

- link to all week 4 NCAA picks -

- link to all week 3 NFL picks -

WEEK 4 - FEATURE GAME - NCAA

California Golden Bears vs. Washington Huskies (-1) 

(3:30 PM - EDT)

I'm using this game as my SEPTEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH (5 units)... The Golden Bears are getting a point up north... What I mainly like about this game is a revenge motive... The Huskies have had the Golden Bears number the past two years (but that's when they had Jake Locker in town [who is now a Tennessee Titan])... You need an experienced signal caller to get you through tough match-ups... The Huskies failed that test last week traveling to play an out of conference foe (Nebraska) who they have had on the schedule for a few years now (& defeated in the Poinsettia Bowl last December)...

The thing about that game (Poinsettia Bowl) was that for all intents & purposes, Cal 'should' have been playing there (save for a fluky loss to Washington at home at the end of the season)... The loss dropped them to a 5 win season and made them ineligible for bowl consideration...

Of course I think they fully realize this... & also realize that the Pac 12 is now a 2 division conference... Both teams find themselves in, arguably, the tougher division (with Oregon & Stanford)... Wins will be at a premium & I'll take the Golden Bears in this spot...

CALIFORNIA for (5 units)

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WEEK 3 - FEATURE GAME - NFL

 Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers  (4:05 EDT)

Line: Chargers by 14.5

These LATE GAMES (this week) are a thing of beauty if you know anything about sports wagering... I mean... I don't even know how to explain it to any of you people... You'll either know what I'm talking about, OR you'll think I'm an idiot right away... & never read this blog again... Then, someday a few weeks or months from now, when you've lost all your cash on SURE THINGS, you'll be trying to remember the URL to this blogsite...

Let me start by explaining it to you this way... As of the moment of writing this, here's the PUBLIC SUPPORT% (by the public vs. the sportsbooks [who are naturally just taking the 'other side' of what the public wants to book]), on the 9/25/11 LATE GAMES:

• San Diego (75%) vs. KC
• New York Jets (68%) at Oakland
• Baltimore (94%) at St. Louis
• Atlanta (93%) at Tampa Bay
• Arizona (78%) at Seattle
• Green Bay (90%) at Chicago
• Pittsburgh (90%) at Indy

YGBFKM!!!... What's perhaps even MORE unusual is the number of LATE GAMES (7) + Monday Night = 8... Which means that half the NFL schedule for Week 3 will NOT be played in the 1:00 ET time slot... If you're a newbie, don't damage your brain cells figuring that one out, just trust me in saying it's an unusual circumstance...

It could mean one of several things (but probably will end up meaning a combination of unfathomable results, which, an EXPERIENCED handicapper can spot a mile away)...

The SIMPLE truth is this... If the NFL plays to 'chalk' this weekend (& publicly supported teams WIN), then there's going to be a bloodbath in Vegas... The MORE SIMPLE truth is... IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN (which means that there are going to be a lot of 'locks' that don't payoff for their betting faithful)... The fact that MOST of it occurs within this AFTERNOON SUNDAY scenario is intriguing...

I'm going to thresh it out this way (& there's really no other way to do it in this scenario which is even new to me)... You have to first start with the EARLY GAMES and figure out where the chips fall)... I've already identified HOUSTON, BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, & JACKSONVILLE as possible teams that the public has shunned as being 'take the points' candidates... My guess is that at least TWO of those will be right (but that's why I put small units on all)...

You seriously need to look at what happen EARLY before you plunge into the afternoon... If I'm WRONG about most of those early games, then most of these LOCKS in the afternoon ARE GOING DOWN...

My prime candidates (going down - to the pointspread) are: CHARGERS, JETS, FALCONS, & maybe, believe it or not... STEELERS... I really have no clue... But the bottom line is that I want to CAUTION everyone here to perhaps 'keep your powder dry'...

The UNITS that I assign to all of these picks will be determined by the eventual outcome of the early games (& how the support percentages change)... Right now... Knowing nothing... I have to take ALL DOGS in the afternoon...

"KISS ME... When I'm being ****ED I like to be kissed..."

"Attica...Attica...Attica"...

& you thought I was going to talk about Dexter McCluster, Todd Haley, & Norv Turner here right? Sucka!... CHIEFS (for now) for (0 units)...

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Note: I'll continue to use the other blog only as a 'pick' resource for quite awhile (Comments are disabled there)... Whether any of you like it or not...

Morning Corner 9.23.11

CAC 40 (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 2974.59
rev= 3278.56; mid= 3126.58


CAC 40 is back to March 2009 levels. It's below all SMA's. It closed below its 50.0% minor retrace (2830.17). It's making a confirming monthly 3LB low after reversing lower last month.



EEM (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 39.68
rev= 45.50; mid= 42.59


It appears that emerging markets are not the place to be either. It's below all SMA's. It's close to closing the gap (33.65-34.14) on the weekly chart from July 2009.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: And you thought I was trouble when I didn't have my coffee...

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (1122.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still below the daily and weekly mids.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (78.16). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.19). Above the monthly 3LB reversal price.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (40.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Extradited back to the "extreme fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1792.12). Tested and held SMA(55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3554). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3874).



JNK
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (37.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.79).



WTI
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (80.32). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.27).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (37.99). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 43.38).



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (36.25). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 36.38).



HYG/LQD
Doji day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7540). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (76.561). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.54).



COPPER
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (3.412). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.898).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 9.22.11

DXY (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 77.19
rev= 72.93; mid= 75.06

Last weeks bearish thrusting is being confirmed this week. It's also above the monthly 3LB reversal price. It's above the SMA(55) and approaching the 38.2% retrace (78.76). Running from the EURUSD to DXY may not be the safe play one thinks. Remember the grass is not always greener on the other side.



BIDU (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 157.07
rev= 121.69; mid= 139.38


Stuck in a tight trading range for the last few weeks. Still testing the weekly 3LB mid. It is failing the SMA(21). You'll notice that it started its move higher in Jan 09. Will it lead the way down?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: See what happens when you don't let me finish my morning coffee?

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1204.58) and the 61.8% retrace (1168.03). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Back below the daily and weekly mids.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% retrace (77.27). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.95). Now above the monthly 3LB reversal price.



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Still on parole from the "extreme fear" but has been located.



GOLD
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1792.12). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (1.3671). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3972).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.96).



WTI
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (86.00). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.27).



SILVER
Bullish shoer day (confirmed bullish harami). Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (40.74). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.94).



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (36.25). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.00).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day (confirmed hanging man). Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.54).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

Morning Corner 9.21.11

AAPL (weekly info)
new high 400.50
trend=up
high= 400.50
rev= 359.71; mid= 380.11


Apple is in its own world. It breaking to new highs. First test would be the 61.8% minor retrace (442.05). It's obviously above all SMA's. It's using the 0.0% retrace as support.



NFLX (weekly info)
new low 155.60
trend=down
low= 155.60
rev= 241.11; mid= 198.36


Netflix is having a two month hangover. It's back to August 2010 levels. It's below the 61.8% retrace (143.57). It's below the SMA(89) & SMA(55). The low in July 2010 is the next support (95.33). This is more than the change in prices affecting Netflix.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I must have woke up on the right side of the ocean today.

SPX
Bearish short day (confirmed hanging man). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1204.58). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1254.05). QE2infinity. Still above the daily and weekly mids.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 61.8% retrace (77.27). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.95). Still below the monthly 3LB reversal price.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Failing its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Still on parole from the "extreme fear".



GOLD
Bullish long day (bullish harami?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1792.12). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Doji day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (1.3671). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3972).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (38.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.59).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 22.60).



WTI
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (80.32). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (86.00). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.27).



SILVER
Spinning top day (bullish harami?). Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (40.74). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.94).



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (36.25). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (38.82). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.85).



HYG/LQD
Hanging man day (which confirmed yesterdays hanging man). Failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).



USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (77.497). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (76.561). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 77.54).



COPPER
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (3.766). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.909).

IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.