It's been fun...


Y'all keep the party going... (CV)


"THE FED" - Is NOT "the Bernank"


(Note: Real ramp - above 100 - occurred post breakdown of Bretton Woods)


 





AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Run away. Don't look back. You will not be able to pull the trigger fast enough to get out.



SPX
Bullish long day (bearish harami confirmation denied yet again). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1271.89). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (start of morning star?). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Back below SMA(144), SMA(21) & SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.03).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 17.75). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Still below SMA(55) & held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Now below the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1387.00). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day (start of evening star?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Still above SMA(21) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3395). Closed at the weekly 3LB reversal price (1.3364).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(89) and still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).




10YR YIELD
Takuri day (extreme hammer). The 23.6% retrace at 32.75 was tested and held. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failing upper trendline.



CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).



IQI
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (11.15). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 12.30).



XLF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.30).



TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (92.50). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94).



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.14.11

Bloody hell, chaps. This isn't your grandma's bond market. A chap can't even go to one's club for lunch in peace. Here we are between the amuse bouche and the prawn cocktail (to say nothing of a big G & T) and one is getting a call to let one know that there is a meltdown in the muni bond market. MUNIS !! I mean, usually munis move 0.01% in a day and that's because they are getting nudged around by Treasuries. Sacré bleu, as one of the French chaps, observed.

Deep Merde, is more like it, old bean, my old gran was white as a sheet after losing 20% in two weeks in some fancy bundled vehicle of Detroit GO and LA water treatment plant bonds that her broker had shoveled her into last year. Zounds.

Meanwhile, in another corner of the investment garden, the fairy Fedmother continued to wave his magic wand and the equities beanstalk continued to rise to the clouds on no volume, as all continued to be well in the Best Of All Possible Markets that has reached a permanent but constantly elevating plateau, with investors safe in the knowledge that stocks will Never Go Down in Our Lifetimes.

HY continued up, IG and Ts were sold today as we tried not to look at the muni investors in the corner, losing their religion.

Corpies: LQD -0.48%; AGG -0.21%; JNK 0.33%; HYG 0.16%
Govies: TLT -0.64%; IEI -0.08%; TIP -0.43%
Munis: IQI -2.87; MUB -1.08
Mortgages: MBB -0.15
Hedgies: TBT 1.15%

We are frankly scared shitless by this market now, and we added more bonds to our accumulating pile and hedged our equity exposure.

Equities, 14% long. 21% short.
Fixed income, total 38%. No hedge.
[HYG 18%, LQD 3%, AGG 10%, TLT 2%, TIP 5%]



Morning Corner??? 1.14.11

Now since JPM is reducing loss provisions to boost EPS (rumor) can we trust the report? Not one major bank has an accurate value of their off balance sheet assets. If EPS beats then there will probably be a monthly 3LB reversal. Usually this is a major trend change. But is it when it comes to the banks?

If it's BTE (what am I thinking? we all know it will be) then Friday will be painful for bears. But CPI, retail sales, industrial production, and consumer sentiment could bring a smile back for the bears. Unfortunately they also could send up a bat signal to the JBTFD crowd.


JPM
Daily 3LB
trend=up
high= 44.71
rev= 43.58; mid= 44.15



JPM
Weekly 3LB
trend=up
high= 43.64
rev= 41.43; mid= 42.54



JPM
Monthly 3LB
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 36.36
rev= 44.75; mid= 40.56




Singing "Here We Go Again" as JPM reports earnings...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.


This rematch is ready for prime time. So..."Let's Get ready to Rumble!"


Creditcane™: Can't you feel it? Something's wrong. Even the big boys are scared.



SPX
Bearish harami day (the reversal pattern that refuses to be confirmed). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1259.78). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Back below SMA(144), SMA(21) $ SMA(55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.03)…yet.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) but didn't test the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1368.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Back above SMA(21) & SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3395).



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(89) but still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).





10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. The 23.6% retrace at 32.75 is begging for a test. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failing upper trendline.



CRB
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 323.94).



IQI
Spinning top day (failed taker confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Still testing its 0.0% retrace (11.45). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 12.30).



30YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.98). It's waiting for something. Maybe the truth?



TLT
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (92.50). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 90.94). "I've fallen and I can't get up."



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.13.11

Corpies: LQD 0.43%; JNK -0.10%; HYG -0.02%
Govies: TLT 0.90%; IEI 0.39%; TIP 0.31%; AGG 0.36%;
Munis: IQI -0.35; MUB -1.15
Mortgages: MBB 0.12
Hedgies: TBT -1.62%

The continued weakness in munis may have contributed to the strength in the US Treasury market today, despite a not very terrific auction of 30y. IG was bid ahead of HY today and the whole day had a "risk off" feel to it.

The failure of TLT to sell off after noon today was striking. A break of the muni market to new lows might well create an increased aversion to risk in the US credit market.

We have been trimming risk in credit. HYG down from 22% to 18%. TIP from 15 to 6%. TLT from 0 to 2%. AGG from 0 to 5%. Hedges are off in bonds. Fixed income up from 31% (hedged) to 34% (unhedged) into the 3 day weekend.



Morning Audibles 1.13.11

Somehow... This week... I neglected to think about, or partake, in any kind of ceremony as to what I suppose should be considered an "ANNIVERSARY"... (for the record - it's not my style to do so)...

One year (& TWO DAYS) ago... I started this mess of a blog with this...


16 comments there... 2 by "me"... Mostly expressing confusion & reticence (except for CV - who was not confused - in that moment)... It took 5 whole days after that to match the DAY ONE TOTAL... And that occurred by virtue of 50% comments by CV... And the "other" 50% of the comments being TEXAS RADIO & E117 basically telling me how to stop being an idiot & do the fonts & color schemes "better"...

I bring this up now not for any other reason than to say the following... Well - FIRST (employing, once again, my powers of TOTAL RECALL)...


But also to say that, ironically... I've decided to resign (this blog) at this milestone... The reason is because I have nothing left to say about these markets (I discovered that yesterday)...

I've spent my time over the past year offering many insights, many metaphors, links, cross-references, pop-art, pop-music... Or, "whatever" I could conjure to keep a process which can be DULL and TEDIOUS... "Entertaining & Motivating" instead... It's not so easy of a task to do that on a daily basis (especially when you're working from scratch, and have highly intelligent minds to entertain & needed to be fed [Oh no! He said "Fed"])... Notwithstanding... I gave it my best shot...

This following is true... Since DAY ONE... I'd never looked at "blog statistics"... In fact... I never even knew those types of things were available (until today)... It could actually be that what I'm going to present to you now is "something new" (a new feature) from BLOGGER... I wouldn't know because as I said... "I never bothered to look"... Instead - I just tried to think up something entertaining to write every day... I STUMBLED across this [that feature] just because I had to "get into" BLOGGER this evening to clean up some of the original posts I'd made (because many of you don't know I'd used the threads as "dumping grounds" for various images & things that I knew nobody would ever bother linking back to)...

Anyway... In that process, I was surprised (VERY SURPRISED) to find out some statistics...

Despite the meager beginnings (as described above)... This blog has had (as of this writing) 192,741 unique "page hits" over the past year... Last "month" the number was 19,955 and YESTERDAY alone was 1,028... (whatever that means)...

Before anyone gets impressed with that, let me say that the numbers have GONE DOWN since the summer... Ironically (or not)... The highest concentration of page hits was during the "extreme fear" of the bear market (in EARLY JULY of last year)...

In fact, the 2nd most "page views" was July 1st (on this thread)...


The 3rd most "page views" was on this thread...


With 7/13 and 7/14 right behind...

Ironically (or not)... The #1 most page views was this...


More distinct...(which I apologize that I'm failing to illustrate graphically - Amen Ra & Andy T could honor you all with these graphs because they have privy to these)... Is the fact that there has been a significant slide in "traffic" over the past month (since about December 2nd, OR, the EXACT day that I made this post)...


I seriously don't know what to make of that... (but if you look at a SPX "daily" chart - you may extrapolate whatever you wish at your own leisure - which I'm sure you're all SMART enough to do - tape "afficianados" that you all are - expressly)...

What "I see" (an expression which has become a dangerous revelation as of late), is that the popular indices have basically gone straight up (just count the number of "DAILY" green and red candles and extrapolate your own outcome based on your individual diagnostics of NORMAL market behavior)... Within the mathematical probability of assumption might be that there is a lot LESS interest in what appears to be a "bear blog" [even though that's NOT what CV professes to be]) during times that the market seems to be behaving in a SYNTHETIC "total conviction" environment... Or, I might just be a clueless DOLT who is imagining things & who farms, builds tilapia irrigation conduits, goes "off grid" energy, & exchanges nickels on an occasional basis...

I'm too dumb to know what SYNTHETIC means in this context (all I know is that it "feels" this way - and the populace seems to BEHAVE in that way - although only a FOOL would assign any CAUSALITY to any of those observations)... This, I've learned...

I'm an AUTHOR (exponentially - beyond my own, ot my FAMILY's survival needs)... I write (in this "exquisite" freedom on time)... I try to entertain (in the process)... "Entertainment" means that you must try to connect with what people are "feeling"... If they can't relate, they're not entertained... In this streaming digital information world, if you lose the attention of people for ONE SECOND, you might as well have lost them forever (I know that through 30 years of practicing my craft)... It's a MIRACLE that I've managed to entertain people for an entire year (on this silly blog)... Either that, or they just feel sorry for me (which is HIGHLY probable)...

"PATIENCE" is not a luxury one can afford (yet TIME is a critical element in everything)... For example... The SUPERBOWL will be played in Dallas, TX on February 6th... But some feel the need to start the discussion about it today... The only way to get through the interim is distraction... So it is with THE MARKETS (you know - those things that geniuses like Ritholtz & Krugman make their "lifes work" around)... Even though I can't POSSIBLY have better answers than those geniuses (with regards to THE MARKET)... As an author of a blog (my feeble attempt)... I've always felt that it was important to FILL THE EMPTY SPACE (a dynamic that I presume to be important... Simply by "human logic")...

In July (as evidenced above), there was NO EMPTY SPACE... Markets (the "protagonist", in this drama), were on the verge of crashing... People NEEDED TO KNOW WHY (but frankly, from my POV, the threads themselves [my threads] were not COMPELLING)...

Neither was, on September 1st, the thread (not even my Top 10 "funniest" IMO)... But what WAS compelling to me was... "WHY" were they behaving that way? (markets & interest "IN" them at that time)... What CAUSED the sudden change?... There may not be answer for that, but it doesn't negate the question itself... PEOPLE WANT AN EXPLANATION FOR THINGS THEY CAN'T COMPREHEND...

Nobody knows exactly HOW (to this day) the iceberg REALLY sunk the Titanic... They "think" they have clues, but their curiosity will always be on display... So on and so on...

To bring this "NEED" into the present [the curiosity]... I'm going to admit that I don't have any answers... In the past months, I've used "subterfuge" (I used the NFL and NCAA - and "in depth" summaries on how and why THE UNEXPECTED happens in football all the time)... If you'd made "side by side" NFL BETS with me... You'd have most likely outdistanced your S&P returns for 2010 by a large margin...

But again... This is a "tough crowd"... And I'm afraid to say that the "INEXPLICABLE" rise in the S&P, I can no longer explain...

I "tried" to explain it in the summer (when I started the "silver bitchez" & "nickles bitchez" MEME - which I've mostly continued straight on in "comments")...

But I was laughed at...

I made my best attempts to CONCEAL that it was my belief that "hot liquidity money" was finding its way into commodities (all ASSETS, but commodities as a "beta" - an expression I used many times since last August)...

HOT LIQUIDITY MONEY???? WTF???? What the hell is that?

I'm sure it has NOTHING TO DO with the Fed... POMO... "Perceptions" thereto... These are phenomenoa that surface all by themselves... (as with other soft and hard commodities)... The box of Cheerios on the shelf I see at the supermarket IS NOT smaller in dimension & higher in price... The price at the gas pump I see IS NOT $3.19 a gallon (it's $2.69 - like it was BEFORE the Fed announced QE2)...

I'm certainly just imagining things... (so my comments are WURTHLEZZ)...

And so... As an IMAGINER of things... & as an author of a BLOG that has "page hits" which are decreasing in size (in conjunction with an S&P which rises DAILY, with TOTAL CONVICTION, in an environment where the PUBLIC PERCEPTION [erroneous or not] is that THE FED has control)... Well... I'm going to say NO MAS...

NOT to the Fed... (NO... I'm not bowing down to THAT for God's sake)... But INSTEAD to everyone who insists that none of these CURIOUS levers have NOTHING TO DO with policymaking (OR "reaction" to policymaking, however NIMWITTED that may BE, or prove to be)...

Do whatever you want bitchez! Trade your tapes...


Instead, it's time for CV to TURN THE PAGE...



On a long and lonesome highway
East of Omaha
You can listen to the engine
Moanin' out his one note song
You can think about the woman
Or the girl you knew the night before...

But your thoughts will soon be wandering
The way they always do
When you're WRITIN' sixteen hours
And there's nothin' much to do
And you don't feel much like WRITIN',
You just wish the trip was through...

 Here I am
On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star again
There I go
Turn the page...

Out there in the spotlight
You're a million miles away
Every ounce of energy
You try to give away
As the sweat pours out your body
Like the music that you play

Later in the evening
As you lie awake in bed
With the echoes from the amplifiers
Ringin' in your head
You smoke the day's last cigarette,
Rememberin' what she said...

Here I am

On the road again
There I am
Up on the stage
Here I go
Playin' star again
There I go
TURN THE PAGE...

Amen Ra & Andy... PLEASE... Take it from here...

Thank you all for your PATRONAGE!... (This 'memorable' year... FOR ME)

Sincerely,

CV






AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



Creditcane™: Don't drink the water/kool-aid...



SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1259.78). QE2infinity.




DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Failed the 38.2% retrace (80.63). Back below SMA(144) & SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.03).



VIX
Spinning top day (another failed inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Still has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Still above SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still below 14.6% retrace (1392.69) but didn't test the 23.6% retrace (1368.14). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1368.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back above its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3395).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Back above SMA(21) & SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).




10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 35.66 has held. Still below SMA(21). Below its 14.6% retrace (33.86). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failing upper trendline.



CRB
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 323.94).




XLF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.01).




IQI
Takuri day (failed morning star confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Still below its 14.6% retrace (11.74) and tested its 0.0% retrace (11.45). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 11.52).



COPPER
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of new 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 445.75).



Morning Audibles - 1.12.11

I remember last week I'd read on TBP that the "Wall Streeter Who Blogs In Chief" had an opening for an "internist" position... Now, I know that I'd fail on the MAIN QUALIFICATION CRITERIA for what's generally considered an "internist" position (since the days that this great leader set the standards for us all)...


But I did, I think, check all of the appropriate "sex", and "ethnicity" boxes (so as to assure myself the most favorable affirmative action status - so I have THAT going for me)... As an example of my work, I submitted an "edit" to a recent page (because I'm a firm believer in a "Truth in Advertising" agenda)... Here's a sample of my offering...

ORIGINAL POST



MY VERSION - (Note: I opted for the "Facebook" approach)

Personal BIO info:

My BFF


My Secret Ambition:


My Welcome Mat (to your ideas & participation):
(Note: CV actually suggested "ditching" this approach and going with the cute little doggy icons)



My Motto:


Oh no wait... That resume was submitted last Friday... We've now learned that the word "AIM" is to be "stricken from the record" from all of Pharoah's monuments, tablets, and scrolls... Shucks! What am I going to do now? I just spent a couple of BILLION of the taxpayers dollars to put this campaign onto the airwaves...


Well... What can I say? That was going to be my best "shot"... "Shoot"... Looks like I'm clearly "outgunned" here... I'd better just "bite the bullet" and let "sleeping dogs lie" (or is it "lying dogs sleep")? Can't remember...

- So that's why Obama admires the fact that Michael Vick kills pitbulls -

If somebody does a "Sirhan Sirhan" On Rudy Guliani in the next election... I wonder if all the blogeteers are going to go after Katie Couric (0:56)...


---INTERVIEW OVER---

I humbly and respectfully now return to my normal everyday routine of "NOT MAKING MONEY" because I'm "TRYING TO BE SMART"...

I'll hereby leave you to your humble pursuits... (Or, you know, the pursuits that a "hobbyist" like yourself enjoys pursuing when you're not busy trying to "top tick" the S&P as the 10y note approaches a 4 handle and the 30y at 5 (because that's what happens in "typical recoveries)...


Confucious say: "He who shoot from hip need to beware of foot..."

While you're doing that... I'll mull it over this weekend to decide whether it's in the cards for me to become more of a Big Picture Guy (to "beef up" my qualifications)...


I realize that's an awful lofty goal... But forgive me if I don't meet the standard... And instead, find myself having to "AIM HIGH" in other ways...



Lastly... For those of you who can't shake a "sick sense of irony" in daily living...

- HERE'S YOUR "BANKER" BONUS -

Glock Pistol Sales Surge in Aftermath of Arizona Shootings





Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.