2011 Kentucky Derby - I Got the Horse Right Here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fl6MHgh1vFQ

OK, so how are we going to do this?... Are you just going to sit there and stuff your face full of waffles while I GIVE you the likely survivors of the annual Kentucky "free for all", or are you actually going to sit down and do your own homework on the subject...

First rule is... Don't worry if you don't pick a winner... Put 20 horse racing EXPERTS into a room together to select a Derby winner is about equal to putting 20 ECONOMISTS into a room together to build a consensus on what the Fed is going to do next...

Last year CV gave you "Super Saver" as the winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby ($200 on the nose at 9-1 odds)... Here was that:

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/04/amenras-corner_30.html?showComment=1272662164275#c7812109089272297483

I followed that up with a call on "FLY DOWN" in the Belmont (nosed out at the wire):

http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2010/06/weekend-edition-fly-down-in-belmont.html

The I got on to more important things (like picking the Green Bay Packers, pre-season, to win the Super Bowl)... But since there MAY NOT BE an NFL season this year, this might be all you get for awhile (unless you're waiting for the inevitable QE3 call, which is more of a foregone conclusion, than "pick" so I'll leave that one out)...

To all you amateur horse enthusiasts, super bowl party chip dip table hanger outers, & Oscar party toasters (you know - the ones who "get into the flow" of these things for one day out of the year - I'm going to give you the "Cliffs Notes" version of how to pick a Derby Horse - so you can sound cool and informed while you're wearing your fancy hat sipping on a mint julep)...

DERBY ANECDOTES (and how to read into them)...

aka - (When someone tells you to bet Calvin "Bo-RAIL", this is how you intelligently say "Pffffft" and tell them why it's different this time...)

CALVIN BOREL (aka Calvin "BO-RAIL") - Successful Churchill Downs based jockey... Has won 3 out of the last 4 KD's... Has a gutsy style where he leads his mount on a trip saving inside ride (close to the rail)... Strangely - Nobody seemed too interested in utilizing Calvins services this year... He finally got a call to ride the #3 horse TWICE THE APPEAL... (20-1) odds on the morning line which may drop because some will just blindly put their $$ on Borel... So I can see little value in playing Borel to make it 4 out of 5 (which would truly be a remarkable accomplishment)...

TRAINERS - Zito, Plechter, Baffert horses are always going to get consideration... This year is no differemt... Zito is running the #8 horse DIALED IN (which is the morning line favorite at 4-1)... Plechter has #18 UNCLE MO (at 9-2 co-favorite) & #4 STAY THIRSTY (at 20-1)... Baffert is running #15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (at 10-1)... I'm going to say this more than once... Betting the Kentucky Derby is less an issue of picking the right horse, but GETTING GOOD VALUE... Half the horses in the field are instant throwaways... It's a 20 horse field... So there are 10 throwaways... The 10 you have to pick from then either represent "good value" or "poor value"... Considering you might get 9-1 odds on the 3rd or 4th favorite in the race, if you can narrow your selection down to say 5 horses, you have a decent shot at making some money... So mostly I'd prefer to AVOID these "top trainers" because it's more likely that their horses are going to get bet down below 9-1...

Last year... CV got (9-1) odds on SUPER SAVER (who was trained by Todd Plechter & ridden by Calvin Borel)... it was also on a wet track whereby Super Saver had showed he could handle both a wet track AND the Churchill Downs oval... I was surprised as hell to have gotten (9-1)... If Super Saver had been the betting favorite at 4-1), I probably would have either bet less, or nothing on the race...

Nick Zito horses tend to do well in the Belmont Stakes... My selection, FLY DOWN, for last years Belmont was a Nick Zito horse... Although Zito has won the Derby twice, I prefer to think of his horses as "prep races" for the Belmont Stakes (and other upcoming graded summer races)... With #8 DIALED IN as the morning line favorite for the KD, I see no value there... He may just win, but there's less value in making DIALED IN your selection... For that same reason, I'm tossing DIALED IN out of my exotics... A trainer is not going to risk damaging a good horse if he's not getting a perfect trip... Only about 6 out of any 20 horses get decent trips in the KD... So on quality horses, they might end up just galloping out the last furlong or so if it's not going to happen...

That statement holds true for ANY horse... So it could even apply to whatever horse I narrow my selection down to... Basically what I'm saying is, the odds are just as likely that the horse WINS, or strolls in 15th...

DOSAGE INDEX - A lot of so called experts are going to be saying a lot about "DSI" on saturday... it's more friggin complicated than trying to figure out GDP... It's useful to some degree, but trust me when I say the EXTENT of that degree is in just narrowing the field down to the 10 "no chancers" (which is already pretty much reflected in the morning line)... Over 20-1, and the dosage index probably sucks... In 137 years, some anomalies have occurred (like, maybe 3), thus the 30-1 odds... It's not rocket science...

FORM - A lot will be made of who the "flavor of the week" is... And it totally goes along the lines of the major prep races from the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita derby, & so on... This doesn't help you anymore than to hear people's BIAS expressed... East Coasters will tell you a West Coast horse will never win... It's all a lot of baloney that "sounds" smart but means nothing... What one "might" consider is if a horse is on the overall IMPROVE, or DECLINE... Some come into the Derby lightly raced (so are not considered as strongly)... Others, like UNCLE MO were expected to do big things then crapped out... The "excuse" for UNCLE MO not winning the Wood Memorial at 1-9 was that he was fighting a stomach virus... Whatever! All I know is that I'm staying away from any horses that are making excuses within a month of post time...

So here's the DAILY RACING FORM for the entries to the Kentucky Derby (if I get time - I'll teach you how to read it)...

DAILY RACING FORM

(for 2011 Kentucky Derby - G1 - 1 1/4 miles - Churchill Downs)

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2011/profile-assets/PPs/2011-kentucky-derby-pps.pdf

CV's PICKS

As of now, I'm going with the #19 horse NEHRO... This is not an easy selection because in 137 years, exactly ZERO horses have made it into the winners circle from either #17 or #19 posts... Rarely do horses starting from the auxilliary gates (16-20) get their nose on the wire...

But I'm picking NEHRO for different reasons... Mainly because I don't think any of the favorites of the race have shown anything special... Basically this race is up for grabs, so I'm going to GRAB some value... I like "coincidences"... Nehro comes from MINESHAFT (who was an offspring of SEATTLE SLEW)... Seattle Slew (one of the last Triple Crown winners), won the Kentucky Derby on this date May 7th, 1977, and died 25 years later on that exact same date... Hopefully, his grandson will remember that... 

I'm also looking at #11 MASTER OF HOUNDS in the exotic bets (exacta box/trifecta)...

I also have a notion to add #15 MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE & #9 DERBY KITTEN (at 30-1) into a longshot play box...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: C'mon now. Do you REALLY believe the BLS???

SPX
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed 23.6% retrace (1341.90). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me. Mark."



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Now above SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 72.93).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above SMA(89). Held above its 23.6% retrace (18.28). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.70). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Still below SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1475.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). Still below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4833). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down.



JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (40.61). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. No test of 0.0% retrace (37.44). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing the 14.6% retrace (32.29). Still failing the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.55).



WTI
Bearish short day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (98.41). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Spinning top day (possible morning star). Back above SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 42.59). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal down. ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.26).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 5.6.11

Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
new low 32.638
trend=down
low= 32.638
rev= 36.083; mid= 34.361


I guess letting the ratio get almost below 30 was too much to handle. They are hiding silver in "Eligible" to avoid making deliveries and reducing their PM holdings to almost nothing. What, no "circuit breakers" in PMs? But Williams %R is close to overbought and this move might be short lived.



90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.040
rev= 0.160; mid= 0.100


With the destruction of commodity longs this week the market is saying that the Fed will not raise rates. Hell the Fed can't lower them anymore either. The 90 day is down to 0.020 this week. Anyone buying this is parking cash and hoping the down move is resolved when the 90 days are up. Too bad the 90 days ends after QE2 ends.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I'm BAAACCCKKK!!!!!

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's (barely). No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed 23.6% retrace (1341.90). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1363.61). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me. Mark."



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 72.93).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above SMA(144). Now above its 23.6% retrace (18.28). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 15.99). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Now below SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (1514.39) and its 38.2% retrace (1475.41). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 85.4% retrace (1.4640). Now below SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.4830). The decision has been made.



JNK
Bearish long day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (40.61). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.81).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace (37.44). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing the 14.6% retrace (32.29). Still failing the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.86).



WTI
Bearish LOONNGG day. Now below SMA(89). Didn't even stop to look at SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (101.54). Dally 3LB reversal down (reversal is 113.93).



SILVER
Bearish LONG day. Now below SMA(89). Drove right past SMA(55) also. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.54). Also now below its weekly 3LB reversal price. ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Still failing its 38.2% retrace (51.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.26).



EEM
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Barely held SMA(55). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 50.20).




HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (0.834). Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.837).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 5.5.11

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 122.500
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 122.500
rev= 118.281; mid= 120.391

Well well well. Who is doing all of the buying of 30 year bonds? I'll assume we all have a pretty good idea. It isn't China or Japan. They have their own problems to deal with. Plus China prefers commodities right now. The Primary Dealers? Not really as the bonds that they buy just stop by for a visit. The bonds continue their journey to the Fed at the nearest POMO. The pension funds? Not if they want to make the 8% they advertise.



ATHEN (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 1431.33
rev= 1661.68; mid= 1546.51


The Greece stock exchange is about to take out its low from the beginning of the year. In so many words all is not well. You can't break free from gravity near an event horizon. Greece has lost all engines and is floating helplessly towards that horizon. Restructuring may keep Greece out of the black hole but unable to escape the event horizon. If they drift off course even a little...

AT's mid Afternoon "Glimpse" at Silver:

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Nothing like a morning workout to get the juices flowing.

SPX
Bearish long day (failed to confirm hammer). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (1370.58). Tested and failed 14.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1347.24). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it. Trust me."



DXY
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.84).




VIX
Bullish short day (possible shooting star). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Now above its 14.6% retrace (16.75). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 14.69). Still deep in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.10). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Doji day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still holding above the 85.4% retrace (1.4640). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4721). Decision has to be made sometime fellas.



JNK
Hammer day (failed to confirm bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (40.61). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.90).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace (37.44). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 14.6% retrace (32.29). Now failing the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 32.96).



WTI
Bearish long day. Now below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (108.56). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 106.84).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding upper trend line. Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (40.82). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.60). Also now below its weekly 3LB reversal price. ""You want the delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



CRB
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (362.87). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 370.56).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above the lower trend line (for now). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 5514.87).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011