Weekend Edition

Presented without comment...

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Oh... & for you ladies out there... Since "The Oscars" are coming in only a few short weeks, it's time to start considering what type of dress & shoes you'll wear for the big night... Why not take some fashion tips from "the most stylish first lady since Jackie Kennedy"

Ghetting off AIR FORCE ONE

From behind (left - Princess Letizia of Spain; center First Lady Carla Bruni of France; right? you guessed it)

Just keep reminding yourself how "tone" those arms are!

"We just can't leave it up to the parents" (to dress you before you step out)...

Look - I'm AGAINST frivolous expenditures, but you can raise my taxes a little to buy a few mirrors in the White House... Apparently, when Hilary Clinton stole all the fine China from the White House, she took all the mirrors with her as well... Blue shoes, a green(ish) outfit, and panty lines... Better get crackin ladies, the Oscars are only a month away & the Red Carpet beckons...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: It's about f'in time the market recognizes my power.

SPX
Bearish long day (aka "The Whoosh"). Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed below SMA(21) & EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace high. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1299.53). QE2infinity. Couldn't hold 1300. Repeat.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Not heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54) anymore. Below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 77.71).



VIX
Bullish long day (that's an understatement). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21), SMA(55) and SMA(89). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.75). Now out of the "no fear" zone. Currently does not have a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish harami day. Tested and ran from SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and passed the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1346.50). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3722).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Running away from its 50.0% retrace (40.47) for the 3rd time. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Failed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Back below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Closed the week below its weekly 3LB mid.



XLF
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Failed the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).



TLT
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Back above lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.12).



WTI
Bullish engulfing day (aka 11/24/10). Back above SMA(89) & SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed back above the 61.8% retrace (86.31). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 85.52).



EEM
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Now below its 23.6% retrace (46.42). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.25).

Will this even be enough?

Morning Corner 1.28.11

AUDJPY (daily info)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 0.8268
rev= 0.8007; mid= 0.8138




The AUDJPY cross is trying to hold the lower parallel trend line and the SMA(89). Something has to give one way or another.



EURJPY (daily info)
new high 1.1367
trend=up
high= 1.1367
rev= 1.1217; mid= 1.1317




EURJPY challenging the SMA(233). The strength in the EURUSD is behind this move. The Japanese downgrade should have sent the yen lower and would have made the move in the EURJPY even more pronounced. But the yen barely moved. Go figure.



ES (15min info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high 1297.50
rev= 1291.50; mid= 1294.50



The SMA(13) is currently resistance. Need a clean break higher to entice more bulls for the slaughter.



IWMSPY (daily info)
-no change ( above mid)
trend=down
low= 0.6026
rev= 0.6181; mid= 0.6104




Somehow, someway liquidity has found its way back into the market. As I'm wanting and waiting for a correction this additional liquidity is not helping.


This is what needs to happen...


with this playing in the background...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: With everything I'm doing overseas I'm surprised US markets are still ignoring me.

SPX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace high. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1293.24). QE2infinity. Couldn't hold 1300.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.05).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). No daily 3LB (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bearish long day (bearish engulfing in a down trend…hmmm). Almost below SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1346.50). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above its 50.0% retrace at 1.3506. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3629). Probably will test its 61.8% retrace (1.3891).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested but failed its 50.0% retrace (40.47) for the 2nd time. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Failed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Failed to hold upper trend line.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish short day. Still below SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5212.60).




XLF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Held the 14.6% retrace (16.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.72).




IQI
Hanging man day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failed test of SMA(55). Almost above 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



TLT
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below SMA(21). Failed lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.12). Breakout is still down.



WTI
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Closed back below the 61.8% retrace (86.31). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 87.87).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.27.11

A solid 7y auction today. Treasuries were stronger in the afternoon. The long bond tickled 4.62% before the miserable claims number came out. Otherwise not much action to relate.

Corpies: LQD 0.21%; AGG 0.18%; JNK 0.02%; HYG 0.13%
Govies: TLT 0.35%; IEI 0.19%; TIP -0.12%
Munis: IQI 0.08%; MUB -0.13%
Mortgages: MBB 0.13%
Hedgies: TBT -0.64%

GDP ahead tomorrow. Bear in mind that with the huge jump in $gaso, this might actually trump the consensus of 3.5%. We think any dip in high quality bonds tomorrow would be a great entry opportunity. Looking at you, TLT, LQD, AGG etc. We would sell JNK on strength.

Monday brings Chicago PMI, maybe reality intrudes.

Equities 14% long. No shorts.
Bonds. 11% HYG/JNK, 5% TIP, 3% LQD, 10% AGG, 6% TLT. 35%.

Be careful out there.

Morning Corner 1.27.11

NFLX (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 195.00
rev= 171.29; mid= 183.15




Well let's see. AH is showing a print of 202.10 so there was definitely a ramp after earnings. I'm still wondering how long their model will hold up since they don't own the infrastructure to transport data. But until then JBTFD.



Gold/Silver (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 48.811
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
rev= 46.062; mid= 47.433




The pressure to get silver down seems to be increasing. Silver price is dropping faster than the price of gold. Have they given up trying to push down gold and are putting all of their weight behind pushing down silver? Since COMEX grandfathered those who had outsized positions I'd say watch your back.


It's bad enough the SPX is sitting just under 1300 with the EOM a few days away. So if you're short I'd tell you to...


...that's only if the problems in Europe don't escalate further and crash their markets.



***Brian Sack to the PD's (re: recent auctions) "Give It/Them To Me Baby"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Never thought I'd hear myself say this again but "No Mas!".

SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace high. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1285.96). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Still heading for the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 78.21).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No daily 3LB (reversal is 16.11). Stuck in the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Bullish engulfing day. Still below SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Tested and held the 38.2% retrace (1328.33). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1360.50). Must have the precious.



EURJPY
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Also holding its 23.6% retrace (1.1114). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1217).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(55). Still above 38.2% retrace (40.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).




10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Passed the 14.6% retrace at 33.86. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36). Holding above upper trend line.



IQI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). Held new 0.0% retrace (11.15). Almost above 38.2% retrace (12.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 12.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid (11.76).



MUB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Held the 23.6% retrace (98.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96). Tested and passed the weekly 3LB mid.



TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). Failed lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 94.12). Breakout is down.



EEM
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(55). Still below 14.6% retrace (47.26). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.10).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 1.26.11

FOMC day again, the day after SOTU. An uninterrupted stream of Benny bucks, together with POTUS fiscal stimulus drivel last night created a risk-on environment yet again, and HY outperformed IG as USTs were used to light bonfires in the streets. The recovery in munis continued. Mortgages were weak on a big YC steepener.

2s30s and 10s30s continued to be stretched as widely as.. well, very wide, almost unnaturally so, almost as if someone mysterious were trying to manipulate the yield curve. Perish the thought.

Outside, the snow continued to fall, and all was still....

Corpies: LQD -0.56%; AGG -0.33%; JNK 0.30%; HYG 0.21%
Govies: TLT -1.52%; IEI -0.24%; TIP -0.17%
Munis: IQI 0.59%; MUB 0.75%
Mortgages: MBB -0.24%
Hedgies: TBT 2.80%

Durables, claims in the morning and then at 1pm the 7y auction tomorrow, expect weakness in Ts beforehand and strength afterwards. China likes to do stuff on Fridays, so Thursday afternoons can be a time for Mr Market to anticipate Voldemort's macro machinations.

We sold another chunk of JNK and bought some TLT.

We are now 11% HYG/JNK, 10% AGG, 5% TIP, 6% TLT and 3% LQD (35%).
Equity longs 14%, no shorts overnight.