WEEKEND EDITION - Do Do Do Doooh-DO, THE CHORES!

Sorry I've been sparse on the "threads these past few days ladies & gents. BUT IT'S THAT TIME OF YEAR again. Chores THIS time of year simply CAN NOT go unattended...

You SOW, and then you REAP...  If there's no sowing. There's no REAPING. I imagine it's been like that for all of mankind...

Except for this clever bunch who have evolved in the past generation and a half. These people are smart with their Harvard and MIT degrees they think they've concocted ways ways to live in which ALL YOU DO is reap. 

Actually you don't even reap. You just party all day and all night, and when it comes time to reap (something created out of nothing) you borrow money to pay some other person to reap it for you and offer it to you on a silver platter as tribute to your GODLY wisdom...

I'm kind of an OLD SCHOOLER. So I'll continue doing things the old fashioned way and listen to everyone tell me how stupid I am... :-)

Life's just a cocktail party!

"This town is full of money grabbers... go ahead BITE THE BIG APPLE!"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish long day. Next fibo target (using low) is the 1.8276 at 1218.63. Midpoint still above 10 SMA (uptrend). Market want to get to the 61.8% retrace at 1228.74 before letting the bears party. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 1192.13. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Tested and held the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Avoided closing above the 233 SMA on the weekly chart at 81.47. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Takuri day (usually bullish...yeah right). Still below the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish long day (confirmed hammer). Midpoint still below 10 SMA. Didn't need to test the 14.6% fibo ext. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and passed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece is lighting the fuse as we speak). Tested trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10) and failed. No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Bearish long day. Stayed above the 1.618 fibo of 154.80. Closed back below the 0.0% fibo ext. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 160.70. Still trending down on the daily 3LB. Have fun on the back nine Lloyd.

Morning Audibles 4.23.10 - Out of Pocket

I'm a little "out of pocket" this morning computer wise...

Look! Obama has already figured out how to tax me on it!

BEWARE OF WEDGES! (Last one formed to make life miserable for bears).

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bullish short day. Possible hammer but it's not above recent high. Tested the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 and passed (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint still above 10 SMA (uptrend). No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Closed above 21 SMA. Well above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). Dollar up & SPX up. Confused yet? No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish long day. Back below the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back above 10 SMA (will you please make up your mind). No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Hammer day (I'd prefer color of body to be opposite of trend). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 14.6% fibo ext and passed. No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bearish short day (again 3x). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Tested the 0.0% fibo retrace and passed. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece is lighting the fuse as we speak). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3475.

4.21.10 - Part Deux (Cheesecake Beatches!)

Morning Audibles 4.22.10 - Follow up on Yesterday's POLL

Little did you all know you were subjects of a lab experiment yesterday. In yesterdays thread, I asked everyone to nominate ONE DJIA stock that was the most important to the index. My purpose wasn't to prove anybody right or wrong. Instead, it was to get people thinking in terms of what type of company that money OUGHT to flow to given the current environment. IOW - Notwithstanding the challenges facing the economy (that politicians and Wall St. bankers seem to be in denial about). If you HAD to invest money, where would you put it?

The following is an overview of that experiment.

(# = % Weight in the Index)

CAT #8 (which went from $87 to $22 - and has recovered to HIGHER than "pre-Lehman") - Steady Eddy?

3M #2 ($97 to $40, now almost at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

GE #27 ($60, in 2000, went down to $5 in March '09, still intertwined in finance) - Steady Eddy?

IBM #1 ($135, in 2000, crashed down to $54 post dot.com, now trading at ALL TIME HIGHS) - Steady Eddy?

MSFT #21 ($60, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now at October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy?

MCD #6 (new ALL TIME HIGHS every day... However, did go from $45 down to $12 post dot.com... But now trading 15% ABOVE October '07 levels) - Steady Eddy? Bubble?

WMT #11 (Still 15% lower than 2000 highs... Decade long WEDGE PATTERN there) - Steady Eddy?

JPM #16 ($65, in 2000, traded down to $14 in March '09, now trading at "pre Lehman" levels) - Steady Eddy?

KO #12 ($88, "pre-LTCM 1988", traded down to $37 in 2002 recession, recently got back to October '07 levels)...

XOM #7 (Went BUBBLETASTIC from '02-'08 [Right before China Olympics]... When it 'crashed' though, it only gave back about 33% - Meaning: As BUBBLE as it got, it never got as "bubbly" as everything else)...

---

The above is how it went down yesterday (these were solely based on the nominations that the readers put forth. However, since that included some companies that were NOT within the SINGLE DIGIT rank in the "weightings". I decided to fill this list out a little (so now you have 15 companies - HALF of the DOW).


Chevron #3
UTX #4 - Trading at October '07 levels (really? - that many elevators?)
BA #5 - At "right shoulder" H&S level (2000-2007-2010) - That many planes?
JNJ #9 - At October '07 levels
P&G #10 - Just shy of October '07 levels


And my thesis is as follows... I took 10 of the MOST NOMINATED stocks (the ones all of you offered)... Then filled out the list with 5 which weren't nominated (but which have high WEIGHTINGS)...

Now look at the PRICE BEHAVIOR of these "industrials" based on their ALL TIME HIGH levels (which mostly correlated with the two PEAKS we've had in equities in 2000 and in 2007)...

Of these...

IBM is close to all time high, MCD "is" at all time high.

KO, MSFT, MMM, JPM, Chevron, JNJ, PG, UTX are at October '07 levels.

CAT is higher than "pre-Lehman".


BA is fully at a TECHNICAL barrier.

WMT probably isn't going anywhere significant.

GE is struggling mightily with finance...

XOM is hanging on because of $80 oil prices... While it hasn't yet reached it's '08 highs, it's hard to imagine it will (unless we see $150 a barrel oil again)... And we all know what THAT would do to the rest of the economy...

So basically, a great deal of these BEST OF THE DOW stocks that you all have nominated have recovered to the BEST LEVELS they have ever attained...

And this is with:

- ZIRP
- payrolls slashed to skeleton crews
- not yet facing higher taxes
- not yet accounting for bump in HC premiums


and NOT FACING the potential headwinds of

- dollar, perhaps, getting stronger
- geo-political tensions (which are benign at the moment)
- "happy talk" 24/7 on TV (changing its tone)

Can anyone say "Priced to Perfection"? Or, in different terms... Notwithstanding the notion that the DOW & S&P are nearing important FIBONACCI re-tracement levels (for the broader indices), it would seem to me that any FINAL PUSH higher would have to include participation in these IMPORTANT DOW components.


Since many of them are already at "all-time" highs, October 2007 highs, or "pre-Lehman" levels, I suppose one would have to "jump the shark" and just start pushing the VALUATIONS on these companies to boundaries not yet known to mankind.


Who's willing to make those kinds of bets? Remember, that oftentimes "dividends" are the key motive for investing in these... At what point does the ROI not "skew" properly?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool advice when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish spinning top day (body too large for doji). Possible bearish harami. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day (again). Closed above 21 SMA (barely). Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bullish high wave day. Possible bullish thrusting. Still below the 61.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint back below 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day (again). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Didn't need to test the 14.6% fibo ext. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day (again). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece is lighting the fuse as we speak). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3498.



GS
Bearish short day. Stayed above the 1.618 fibo of 154.80. Closed back below the 0.0% fibo ext. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 179.50. It's also trending down on the daily 3LB.

The Bond Report 4.21.10 - (courtesy of LB) - Elegance comes both "shaken" & "stirred"

Risk-off day and the Treasury curve was shallower, as long bonds were well bid. Some of this may have been caused by a failed 30y bund auction in Germany (where else?), and continued weakness in the govies of southern european olive oil and wine producing nations.

Corpies: LQD 0.35%; AGG 0.17%; JNK 0.08%; HYG 0.01%;
Govies: TLT 0.82%; IEI 0.14%; TIP 0.31%

We hedged again - after this large move down in yields, a rebound seems likely.

4.21.10 - Part Deux (ANON Free Zone)

Did you say FREE?

Morning Audibles 4.21.10 - What Could POSSIBLY Go Wrong?

Today's thread is going to be a pictorial... Perhaps it'll end up "saying" a lot more than anything I could bang out on a keyboard... Who needs a keyboard anyway? AAPL has that covered for you... From what I understand, they've created an APP that pays your mortgage and all your other bills so all you need to do is just buy their latest "widg-i-mi-jig" (with your stock profits) and you're in PHAT city baby! Hey! You're even "doubling down" and adding while you're at it!


Ah yes... Sometimes life is good! Your team is winning, babes (or studs, as the case may be) are "sexting" you 24/7 on your super cool "widg-i-mi-jig", & the media are programmed (and paid) to shower you with "happy talk" forevermore (or at least until January 2013, or '17 as the case may be)...


It's times like that you ask yourself (in NOT a joking way)... "What Could POSSIBLY Go Wrong"?

AmenRa's Daily Candle Wrap

SPX
Bullish long day (opening marubozu). Resolved hammer higher. Stayed above the 1.786 fibo (using low) of 1190.89 (next is the 1.8276 at 1218.63). Midpoint back above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes. QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Closed below 21 SMA. Stayed above the 55 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.




VIX
Bearish long day (plus gapped lower at open). "Though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death I shall fear no market." Back below the 618.8% fibo ext (support). Midpoint is still above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Pre Greece implosion jitters. Tested the 14.6% fibo ext and passed. No daily 3LB changes.




EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Closed below the 21 SMA. Next fibo level of 1.2935 is still a target in case of weakness (Greece default coming soon to a theatre near you). New low on daily 3LB reversal with reversal now 1.3596.

Morning Audibles 4.20.10 - Be Tactful When Makin' the Rounds...

& maybe (you can SAVE A PARTY)... PARTY GONE OUT OF BOUNDS!

Doesn't it at least "feel" like that? I mean - SERIOUSLY - WTFF?

"Where's the BEER? Where's the PUNCH?" [after last Friday] "Ewwww HEALTHY TOFU! :-("

"Who's to BLAME when parties really get OUT OF HAND? Who's to blame when they get POORLY PLANNED? (Crashers get bombed - Slobs make a mess - You know they'll even RUIN YOUR WIFE'S DRESS!" Can you pull it back in line? Can you salvage it in time?)...

What can you do to save a party? Parchesi? Charades? a spur of the moment Scavenger hunt? or QUEEN OF THE NILE?

OMG! What can I say, text, or tweet that hasn't been said already? OK... I'll do my best to give you my best TECHNICAL description of a PARTY GONE OUT OF BOUNDS (as I perceive the tape right now)... Then, I'll climb back into my OWN PRIVATE IDAHO...

So whatever... I'd conceded YESTERDAY that we might see 1204 (but after a point discarded the idea - & then bet a cheeseburger on it)... So I suppose this is the first time in history I have INDIGESTION the night PRIOR to a cheeseburger affair instead of AFTER... We'll see (because I'm not looking at E-mini's as we speak)...

I still say (keeping to the THEME)... That Wall St. & Washington (by keeping this rally going), are continuing to live in their OWN PRIVATE IDAHO...

(in the end) CV adores "barefoot Cindy" & Kate's voice!


& especially what they (&Fred) sing...


"Keep off the path, beware the gate,
watch out for signs that say "hidden driveways".
Don't let the chlorine in your eyes
blind you to the awful surprise
that's waitin' for you at
the bottom of the bottomless blue blue blue pool."

"Keep off the patio,
keep off the path.
The lawn may be green
but you better not be seen
walkin' through the gate that leads you down,
down to a pool fraught with danger
is a pool full of strangers."

"Get out of that state
Get out of that state you're IN"