HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND EDITION

Ecclesiastes 3


A Time for Everything

1 There is a time for everything,
   and a season for every activity under heaven:

2 a time to be born and a time to die,
   a time to plant and a time to uproot,

3 a time to kill and a time to heal,
   a time to tear down and a time to build,

4 a time to weep and a time to laugh,
   a time to mourn and a time to dance,

5 a time to scatter stones and a time to gather them,
   a time to embrace and a time to refrain,

6 a time to search and a time to give up,
   a time to keep and a time to throw away,

7 a time to tear and a time to mend,
   a time to be silent and a time to speak,

8 a time to love and a time to hate,
   a time for war and a time for peace.

9 What does the worker gain from his toil? 10 I have seen the burden God has laid on men. 11 He has made everything beautiful in its time. He has also set eternity in the hearts of men; yet they cannot fathom what God has done from beginning to end. 12 I know that there is nothing better for men than to be happy and do good while they live. 13 That everyone may eat and drink, and find satisfaction in all his toil—this is the gift of God. 14 I know that everything God does will endure forever; nothing can be added to it and nothing taken from it. God does it so that men will revere him.

15 Whatever is has already been,
     and what will be has been before;
     and God will call the past to account.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is kryptonite. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Still above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Still above trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB changes. Trending down on the daily 3LB. There was a monthly 3LB reversal today. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Decisions decisions. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing it's not a dream. Think Spain & Greece (and it's just starting). Tested the 23.6% retrace (failed) and rose above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). There was a monthly 3LB reversal today.



GOLD
Hanging man day. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Bearish thrusting day (but we're not in an uptrend so probably indicates profit taking). Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Hanging man day. Finally closed the gap (after 5 tries). Back above the 23.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Doji day. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



HYG/LQD
Spinning top day (too much upper shadow for hanging man). Tested the 50% retrace (passed). Midpoint above 10 SMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.806).

Morning Audibles 5.28.10 - Here's a catchy tune! :-)

This was too good... I couldn't help but link it up it here as well...
(from KD)

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

I love it when the trading day is feisty.

SPX
Bullish long day. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still holding. Midpoint below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1082.35) was tested and passed. Back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back above trendline using 2010 lows. No daily 3LB with changes. Trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Fear is waking up and realizing it's not a dream. Did not hold the 23.6% retrace and fell below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Doji day (probably deciding which call option will expire worthless on the next contract). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Bullish engulfing day. Still below evening star pattern low. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (passed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish short day. Still didn't close the gap (5th try). Back above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish day. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. New high on daily 3LB with reversal still 136.10.



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Back above 21 SMA. Held the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.




10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Midpoint still below 10 SMA. Tested 38.2% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes.

Morning Audibles 5.27.10 - Get the story straight!

I'm telling you the Chinese are knuckleheads.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Euro Drops, Treasuries Pare Loss (Correct)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=au3Pn2021Dfs

(Corrects reported plans of China Investment Corp. in third paragraph.)

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, halting a global advance, and the euro weakened as a report that China may review investments in European government bonds spurred concern the credit crisis will worsen.

Wait No!... Wrong moment to make that kind of comment, don't you know its a HOLIDAY WEEKEND in America and the President has made plans for himself! Amend your statement (or tell them it was misinterpreted)... Wrong fortune cookie!





Make Fortune Cookies at BlingPixie.com

Stocks, U.S. Futures Rally on China Comments; Euro Strengthens

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNivHUhvx.tU&pos=1

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and U.S. futures rose and the euro snapped a three-day decline against the dollar as China said it remains a long-term investor in Europe. Commodities rallied.

There, that's better!... OK... Just another day and a half to get through and Americans can head off for their regularly scheduled MEMORIAL DAY activities without a hitch... For many, this kicks off BARBECUE season...

"I know what I'm going to do!... Yeah baby!"

"Joe, do me a favor, head over to ARLINGTON in my place because I have to fulfill a promise that I'd made to vacation in Chicago."

"OK Mr. President, will do... You just enjoy your steak!"

"And Joe, try not to launch any f-Bombs while you're there... You DO remember how to get to ARLINGTON don't you? You know, it's that place across the river where we went out for burgers that one time. I can't remember much about the place overall, except that I picked up the check for the meal"

"Yes I do remember! I remember I had the bacon cheeseburger... Oh yeah... Here it is, I still have the address to the place... Remember? They wrote a cheeky little article about us too... It was a great FOTO-OP for us"

Ray’s Hell Burger

1713 Wilson Blvd, Arlington VA 22209

703-841-0001

http://aht.seriouseats.com/archives/2009/05/barack-obama-joe-biden-eat-at-rays-hell-burger-arlington-va-washington-dc.html

"I'm not sure when I'll find time to go back there again... You know... For a burger... Maybe winter  would be good for me... I don't do a lot of grilling then... Hey - do you remember if that place served popsicles?"

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Bearish short day and confirmed bullish thrusting. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still history. Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1081.48) was tested and failed. Below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. Back below trendline using 2010 lows. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1128.15. Trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Takuri day. Midpoint below 10 SMA (not for long). Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. China knows. Held the 23.6% retrace and stayed above 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Back above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! Say it again! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Further confirmation of evening star. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 (failed). Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2565.



JNK
Bearish long day. Closing below previous mid is a rejection of the move. Still didn't close the gap. Back below the 14.6% & 0.0 retrace and also below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish long day. Possible bearish thrusting. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Tested the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98 and failed. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 136.10).



WTI
Spinning top day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (barely). Tested and closed above 23.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.61).

Morning Audibles 5.26.10 - Let's "Dance this Mess Around"

I know I'm TOTALLY being a TURKEY here... But I'm going to WIMP out on this mornings post with a music video and some SONG LYRICS... (Note: I might do this on occasion in the future -as well - as the situation dictates)...


Trust me... It's NOT a way of "copping out"... I acknowledge, IT COULD BE CONSIDERED as such... But let's just describe it (today)... IN PARLANCE... as a "slow news day"... (or expectation thereof)...


Believe it or not, what CV ADORES is "pop culture"... POP CULTURE is MORE than "Capital Markets"... We've all discovered that CAPITAL MARKETS are capable of being hijacked from time to time by PRINCETON & HARVARD "NERD-O-FILES"... 

POP CULTURE endures a more scrutinizing jury cast (not the simple DUPES who vote in national elections and THINK it's the same as voting for an "American Idol" winner, or voting someone OFF THE ISLAND)...


Irrespective...& without further ado... We passed a certain MILESTONE yesterday in equities (a potential "correction" bottom - or "Slope of Hope" bottom as the case may prove to be)... 


Notwithstanding... (CV's FAVORITE word in the English language), after such an affair, "clean-up" crews are inevitably left to deal with the aftermath... 


I've gotta admit... I'm not the DISHWASHER type (although that WAS, actually, CV's first "paycheck" job - back in the day)... But I've moved UP in the kitchen hierarchy... I'm more the CHEF type now (to be more specific - a STEAK CHEF armed with a meat cleaver ready to challenge ANY client who desires to DEBATE the degree of "rareness" I prepared their dinner)...


So where does that leave this thread?... Well - Unless the two "Korea's" go to war in the next 8 TRADING DAYS, or the Euro detonates, or Obama tells everyone he's "gay"... Over the coming MEMORIAL DAY weekend in the USA (and, on the eve of the World Cup Soccer)... I'm prepared to cede these next 8 days to the GODS of TRADING...


GODS... Do what you will... Enjoy yourselves in the process (we ALL should)... Even more SIMPLY stated... DANCE THIS MESS AROUND!... (Roll it over in your minds)... After 8 days I'll be saying... "It's time to do 'em RIGHT"... "I'm just ASKING"...

Remember when you held my hand
Remember when you were my man
Walk talk in the name of love
Before you break my heart
Think it over, think it over
Roll it over in your mind
Why don't you dance with me
I'm not no Limburger
Just a limburger

Dance this mess around
Dance this mess around, 'round, 'round

Everybody goes to parties
They dance this mess around
They do the Shu-ga-loo
Do the Shy Tuna
Do the Camel Walk
Do the Hip-o-crit

Ah-Hippy Hippy forward Hippy Hippy
Hippy Shake, Hippy Shake

Oh-it's time to do 'em right
Hey now, don't that make you feel a whole lot better?
Huh?
I say, don't that make you feel a whole lot better

What you say?
I'm just askin'

Shake-Bake-Shake-Bake

Everybody goes to parties
They dance this mess around
They do all 16 dances
Do the Coo-ca-choo
Do the Aqua-velva
Do the Dirty Dog
Do the Escalator

Ah-Hippy Hippy forward Hippy Hippy
Hippy Shake, Hippy Shake

It's time to do 'em right
Hey! Fred, now don't that make you feel a whole lot better now?
Huh?

Say, don't that make you feel a whole lot better?

What you say?
I'm just askin'

Yeah, yeah, yeah...
Stop!
Dance on over
Yeah, yeah

Dance, dance, dance this mess around
Dance this mess around

Shake, shake-a-bake shake
Shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
Dance this mess around
Yeah, yeah, yeah........

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

SPX
Takuri day and is also a bullish thrusting. 1110.02 (fibo .09) is still history. Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. The 233 SMA (1080.74) wasn't touched. Still below the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. No daily 3LB changes (UFB). Trending down on the daily 3LB. UFB (oh wait I said that already). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back above the 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above 10 SMA. Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. See Spain. Still below the 38.2% retrace and back below 40. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Still trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Back above the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1220.30).



EURUSD
Takuri day. Confirmed evening star. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Tested fibo .1855 at 1.2336 and passed. Following that is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish long day (but still closed lower). Still didn't close the gap. Still above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



XRT
Bullish long day. Why? Consumer confidence? HAHAHA Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed above 89 SMA. Rising wedge apex coming soon. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.07).



3 month/Overnite Libor Spread
All you need to know about what's really going on.

Morning Audibles 5.25.10 - An "Uncontrollable Urge"

CV "shorted"(with SPXU) very late yesterday afternoon into the close (3:46 to be precise)...


The "timing" was pure luck, but the decision came about from looking at a different set of charts in the afternoon (out of boredom - as I'd been waiting for a "melt-up" to 1095-1097 all morning & afternoon)...


Here's what I saw...

All of a sudden, the market seemed to be struggling with the 1082 level (that's why I started to look around at different charts because that level didn't particularly mean much to me at the time)... On the chart, it appeared that a "triangle" was ending. It was either going to end on the days close, OR, the next day (which many of you know know that I was talking about "Next Tuesday, Next Tuesday" - which is DAY 21 from the 1200 high and DAY 13 from the "flash crash")...


Triangles are ALWAYS formed on charts, but this one seemed to bear added significance... Two of the lines on the triangle corresponded with the two largest UP buying frenzy days since the March '09 rally began (I've annotated those on the chart)... The LARGEST was the move last July (which was something like a 23:1 up day...


In any case, it seemed to me that the market (into the close) was about to give up the highest momentum days of the past year... This had "briefly" been done during the FLASH CRASH, then again last Friday, but the "invisible hand" saved the market going into the weekend... Mr. Market seemed DETERMINED to get to this level... 


Here's what it looked like on 1 minute charts... (that last GANN line was the failure point)...

So basically, the market needs to search for a new level... Anybody could offer a good guess as to where that might be... Here are some possibilities:


- 1044 = February Low
- 1042 = Major FIBO extension (from 1220)


And of course there are others... 


Something that I don't think should be discounted is the 905 level... Why? Because that was the 23:1 "up" day last July 15th (where a chart gap still exists)... That level would also provide some interesting possibilities... A 78.6% retrace (from 905 back to 1220) would take you back to 1150 (which has already been established as an important level)... I'm just thinking ahead here...


Perhaps we go back up a little first and backtest some of the breakdown levels? Or perhaps the attitude will be "sell now - ask questions later"... That's for you all and your UNCONTROLLABLE URGES to navigate...