AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane played three card monty against the euro stress test and lost (wants rematch).

SPX
Bullish short day. Gamed the market above 1100. Well above the SMA(21) but still below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB mid. Tested and failed (barely) the trendline (3/6/09-5/25/10). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 1064.88). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO 6x. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated (retest possible someday). Still below the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.64).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(89). The SMA(144) is holding. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.95).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Below the SMA(21). Tested and passed the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1206.70).



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back above the SMA(89). Tested and failed 1.2935 (fib .1459) again. Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2730).



JNK
Spinning top day. Looking to test the 76.4% retrace. Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still hasn't closed falling window from 5/4/10-5/5/10. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Spinning top day. Did not test SMA(89). Still below 147.91 (fib .236). Tested 23.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).



10YR YIELD
Hanging man day (this early in the move?). Confirmed bullish harami. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace. Avoided retesting 0.0% retrace at 28.83 (yup yup). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14).



WTI
Spinning top day. No follow through from yesterday. Still above the SMA(21), SMA(55) and the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.09).



AAPL
Bullish short day (again). Still above the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Did not test trendline using recent lows (already failed). Resistance was found at 265 (upper trendline). Turning into a three inside up/down pattern. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).

Morning Audibles 7.23.10 - Read all about it!

Todays version of why stocks are up (and you should GET IN before getting priced out forever)...

STRESS TESTS - Yeah! Nailed that baby!

UNEMPLOYMENT CHECKS just keep coming!

NO HANDCUFFS - EVER (You just get your limo privileges suspended for 3 days)

GOLDMAN HASN'T ISSUED a LONG EURO CALL YET

BONNIE LIES OVER THE OCEAN - CLYDE TO FOLLOW

(Maybe it's a meteorological phenomenon)

Really people - I don't know... As far as CV can tell, Johnny Long seemingly wants in this market, for now... (and he's got a wad of cash to blow)...

Perhaps, though, looking to the future, he might not be all that interested in crude...

Oil Futures Exodus Biggest Since Lehman Demise: Energy Markets

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8U6gPfMbybw&pos=6 

Lehman? Does 2008 ring any bells? Remember HOPE & CHANGE?

Here's the HOPE part

Here's the CHANGE part

Americans are conducting STRESS TESTS of their own these days...

and this ain't helping

I guess it depends on who's responsible for ADMINISTRATION of the test

Why is CV the only one talking about this expanding wedge?

All I hear about are ABC's... Fine - I can see the ABC's, but what about the wedge (which has an epicenter at 1065 by the way - and is on the same vector of the 1010 lows)?...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane has no friends. Bull or bear all will perish.

SPX
Bullish long day. Gamed above 1078.87 (fib using low). Well above the SMA(21) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB mid. 1097.82 (mn fibo .10) has a force field. Tested and passed the trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1096.48). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Fridays hammer is holding. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO 5x. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated (retest soon?). Still below the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.64).



VIX
Doji day (or bullish harami star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Back below the SMA(89). The SMA(144) is holding. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bullish short day. Resolved doji higher. Below the SMA(21). Tested and passed the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1206.70).



EURUSD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back above the SMA(89). Tested and failed 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2730).



JNK
Bearish short day. Evening star not formed. Tested the 61.8% retrace (passed). Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day. Failed 3rd test of SMA(89). Back below 147.91 (fib .236). Tested 23.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).



10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. Possible bullish harami (hope not). Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). About to retest 0.0% retrace at 28.83 (yup yup). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.14). Was BB sweating in front of Congress again?



AAPL
Bullish short day (possible bearish harami). Back above the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Did not test trendline using recent lows (already failed). Resistance was found at 265 (upper trendline). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).



SLV
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). Tested SMA(89) and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).

Morning Audibles 7.22.10 - Annotated Bernanke

"The Beard" - Before the Senate Banking Committee - 7/21/10

Bernanke said the debt crisis in Europe, which has rattled Wall Street, played a role in the Fed's "somewhat weaker outlook." Although financial markets have improved considerably since the depth of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008, conditions have become "less supportive of economic growth in recent months," he explained.

Translation: The stock market has gone up. With all our PHD's over here at the FED, all we really know how to do are foolish maneuvers that make a stock market that go up, for awhile. Lately though, we're lamenting the fact that it's in the process of giving back those gains...

As a result, Bernanke said progress in reducing the nation's unemployment rate, now at 9.5 percent, is now expected to be "somewhat slower" than thought. Unemployment is expect to stay high, in the 9 percent range, through the end of this year, under the Fed's forecast.

Translation: Nothing we ever do will save your job. However, from TIME (Magazine) to TIME (Magazine), we'll get voted "Person of the Year" honors in the HOPE that we'll save your job... Luckily, our jobs are safe because we are appointed by a President who is not really sure what a job is in that he has never run so much as a Dairy Queen in his life.

High unemployment is a drag on household spending, Bernanke said, although he believed both consumers and businesses would spend enough to keep the recovery intact.

Translation: Because of our proxy, we keep funneling free credit to the banks hoping they'll cooperate and lend it to you. Unfortunately, people aren't as stupid as we are and are not taking that bait and hook.

Bernanke also said it would take a "significant amount of time" to restore the nearly 8.5 million jobs wiped out over 2008 and 2009.

Translation: What we're REALLY hoping for is that we can devise some kind of virus that will selectively kill only unemployed people. The rest, with jobs, we're hoping they'll keep listening to our clap trap and borrow more money from our banks to live lifestyles they can't afford.

And, Bernanke said the housing market remains "weak" and noted that the overhang of vacant or foreclosed houses are weighing on home prices and home construction.

Translation: If we could just round up all the unemployed people and lock them inside vacant houses, pour gasoline over the whole thing, and take a match to it... That would be sweet!

Given the weak recovery, inflation is not a problem, Bernanke said. However, Bernanke didn't talk about deflation, a prolonged and destabilizing drop in prices for goods, the values of stocks and homes and in wages. Although most economists think the prospects of deflation are remote, some Fed officials have expressed concern about it.

Translation: Inflation is a phenomenon caused by supply and demand (not monetary policy in a fractional reserve banking system). But we were all absent in the corridor doing bong hits during that economics lesson in college.

To strengthen the economy, many economists predict the Fed will hold a key bank lending rate at a record low near zero well into 2011, or possibly into 2012. Doing so, would help nip any deflationary forces.

Translation: We hope. Maybe the problem is that we need to do even MORE bong hits until that appears to become reality.

And keeping that bank rate at super low levels also would mean rates on certain credit cards, home equity loans, some adjustable-rate mortgages and other consumer loans would stay at their lowest point in decades.

Translation: The banks don't really lend any of this credit out, but the US Government needs these rates to stay low so that it can spend itself into the position where it will have to gobble up your private savings.

Ultra-low lending rates, however, haven't done much lately to rev up the economy. Consumers and businesses are cautious and aren't showing an appetite to spend as lavishly as they usually do in the early stages of economic recoveries.

Translation: We only WISH people were as stupid as we are, but since they're NOT, we'll just wave our PHDs at them and keep them distracted.

Bernanke, meanwhile, welcomed Congress' new revamp of financial regulations signed into law by President Barack Obama on Wednesday. The new law, he said, "will place our financial system on a sounder foundation and minimize the risk of a repetition of the devastating events of the past three years."

Translation: Any bill that DOESN'T include "AUDIT THE FED" in it, is fine with us.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Creditcane meet Creditami. Creditami meet Creditcane.

SPX
Bearish long day. Dove below 1078.87 (fib using low). Barely above the SMA(21) and below the SMA(233). Midpoint slightly above EMA(10). Still above the weekly 3LB mid. Held the trendline (2/5/10-5/21/10). Tested and failed trendline (2/5/10-5/6/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1096.48). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Fridays hammer is officially confirmed. Midpoint below EMA(10). Will it break the SMA(144)…NO 2x. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) has been violated (retest coming soon). Still below the 61.8% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.64).



VIX
Bullish piercing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps. Repeat ad nauseam." Now above the SMA(89). The SMA(144) has held. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).



GOLD
Bearish short day. Harami banzai'd. Below the SMA(21). Tested and failed the SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!". No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1206.70).



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Must hold off start of evening star (too late it's formed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Back below the SMA(89). Failed to hold 1.2935 (fib .1459). Still above the trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal now 1.2730).



JNK
Spinning top day. Possible evening star forming. Tested the 61.8% retrace (failed). Still above the SMA(89) and the SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bearish short day (also formed bearish thrusting). Failed 2nd test of SMA(89). Back below 147.91 (fib .236). Tested 23.6% retrace (passed). Midpoint above the EMA(10). Closed above 144.98 (fib 2.058 from low). The 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 is on vacation for now. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 140.25).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Didn't test the 14.6% retrace (already failed). About to retest 0.0% retrace at 28.83 (yup yup). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 31.14). Was BB sweating in front of Congress today?



WTI
Bearish engulfing day (close enough). Still above the SMA(21) and SMA(55) but below the SMA(233). Midpoint above the EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 72.14).



AAPL
Bearish long day (did confirm bullish engulfing). Still below the SMA(21) and SMA(55). Tested trendline using recent lows (failed) and trendline using highs (passed). Resistance was found at 265 (upper trendline). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 235.86).