AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bearish long day. Resolved doji lower. Still below 1151.86 (fibo .0557) and pushing towards 1110.02 (fibo .09). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Tested the 144 SMA and failed. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1073.60). Still trending down on the daily 3LB. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish long day. Rejected the shooting star. Midpoint above 10 SMA (uptrend). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) price has been broken and is holding (91.80 is next). Still above the 76.4% retrace. Looking to test the 85.4% retrace at 87.37. New high on daily 3LB with reversal now 85.21.



VIX
Bullish long day. Fear is knowing there is nothing you can do to stop it. Banning short selling cuts the brake line. Tested the 23.6% retrace and passed. No daily 3LB changes. Still above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Inching down day by day but nothing drastic. Midpoint still above 10 SMA. To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint well below the 10 SMA. Currently below all MA's (again 11x). Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Also tested the .1855 fibo of 1.2336 and failed. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 1.2603.



JNK
Bearish long day. Risk was OFF. Still below the 50% retrace and below the 144 SMA. Tested the 38.2% retrace and passed. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes.



GS
Bearish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Well below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. Note: All MA's are pointing down. New low on daily 3LB with reversal now 145.20.



COPPER
Doji day (possible 4 price doji but common for HG). Midpoint below 10 SMA. Still below weekly 3LB reversal but back above monthly 3LB reversal and 76.4% retrace. No daily 3LB changes.

121 comments:

McFearless said...

thanks for the wrap AR. Will be interesting to see what transpires in the futures overnight.

AmenRa said...

Ben

I'm thinking that also. I want to see how spreads and carry trades act overnight.

McFearless said...

Ra,

seems when futures start down a lot like this they have been bouncing overnight to a recovery, we know there is going to be some serious action in Euro Zone overnight and while nobody is looking there is trouble all over Asia, I'd expect a lot of volatility the rest of the week for sure.

That VIX chart looks so bullish to me.

AmenRa said...

Ben

The VIX is having trouble getting below 30 which is the "fear" area. Currently futures are getting killed. But I've had this nightmare many time in recent weeks.

McFearless said...

Ra,

Oh I hear you on the nightmare man. I'm still sweating from that one I had where the market was tanking and all my shorts were still red somehow.

call me ahab said...

this is an AWESOME idea-

"Panera cafe says pay what you want"

man- I am going to start doing that for all my mortgage customers-

I guess I can offset all the folks who want twenty percent with those who want zero percent-

LOL the eFFF out loud-

what a great business model- surprised I never thought about it before(-:!!!!

call me ahab said...

I-Man & b22- previous thread-

dudes- thought I-man was a broker- sorry man- your next step?

b22- dude if I call myself a mortgage consultant- does it change the fact that I am trying to sell loans?

of course not

McFearless said...

ahab,

the best titles in our general financial industry are the one's that include "specialist" which in reality usually means...generalist.

So, the SEC is going to halt any stock in the S&P that trades down 10% in five minutes...for five minutes. Now THAT should be really effective! Let everyone get their wits about them in that five minutes so they can come in and buy. Mmm hmm. Best yet, these rules are in effect almost the WHOLE DAY!

This must be some sort of joke right?

How many votes of confidence that this is going to make any difference at all?

AmenRa said...

Algos are being programmed as I type...

Nic said...

The guy I know who is the most bearish on the USD chucked in the towel tonight.
Perhaps Bucky is about to take a breather.

AmenRa said...

91 on the DXY may happen sooner than I thought.

AmenRa said...

Nic

DXY had a high of 87.38 so far.

Nic said...

Yeah I know, I was just surprised, he is so bearish normally.

Nic said...

Karen
I know the guys are on about you getting a futures account. John Mauldin has a good report tonight about why ETF'S are a rip-off:

Commodities Con

McFearless said...

We hit 2% DSI bulls on the Euro back in April, an all-time record low, a contrast to the record low dollar bulls last year about two months before it actually bottomed . It could go on a little longer here with the Euro but I would certainly not be heavy short the Euro or heavy long the dollar right now.

McFearless said...

Internal Ideas From GM

The money line: ""it would sure help my sales, the company's sales in North America, if we were able to get access."

Dear Mr Reuss,

I realize that you were in a coma the last few years so I want to help you. To keep this simple, this is a bad idea, really bad things happen when you do this. That coma was hard I'm sure, don't make life hard, your name isn't Dewey Cox.

In Other Important News, Is This Lady Serious???

call me ahab said...

b22-

dude-

bulls/bears- so lets look at this-

if one were a bear on the Deutsch Mark during Weimar Republic-

should they have have stood back because there were too many bears? You know- reversal time?

does there never come a point that it's apparent it will all fall to pieces?

the answer to that has to be yes

McFearless said...

ahab,

sure it comes to that point eventually, this show is just getting started though. 08 was the warmup.

AmenRa said...

Ben

Busted. He would have found out anyway considering how the other party acted after the breakup.

Nic said...

McF
That news story was funny. Thanks

call me ahab said...

b22-

GM- what a joke-

guess you have to move the metal- lol

but really- where does that get anybody-

it's just causes all kinds of problems in the end-

but I guess the "subprimes" at least get a "sweet ride" until the car is repo'd-

so there's value in that I guess(-:!!!

AmenRa said...

It's obvious GM has no organic growth so they want to get back to fleecing subprime borrowers to pad earnings. Remember GM was a financing company masquerading as a car company.

AmenRa said...

Looking at the Shanghai Composite weekly chart I see that it had a weekly 3LB reversal down in the week ending 12/31/09 and began trending down the week ending 2/5/10. It is still trending. Is this a tell of what's coming for the US markets?

CV said...

@ahab

That PANERA experiment... WTFF?

Great - it's in an "upscale" neighborhood...

It won't be upscale for long when all the VAGRANTS move in to get free bread & soup...

I hope it's an effin 'blue' district... Snobby ass SOB's...

Nic said...

Some chart porn for the historians

Why a crash is coming in two days to two weeks

CV said...

@Amen

Yeah - Isn't China already in 20%+ correction...

Pull the plug... Especially BIDU... I'm still riding that short position...

Nic said...

The great unwind of the carry trades in Aussie (and NZD) is on.
The new hedge fund regulations in EUR is allegedly responsible for the liquidating of positions.

McFearless said...

I see there is no 3lb change in the XLF but that chart is ugly, of course the banks are short xlf, so they got that going for them.

CV said...

@Nic

(Re: Chart Porn)

Well - While I'm not that big on that sort of comparative analysis...

BANNING SHORT SELLING would be the PERFECT thing to allow it to happen...

No buyers...

CV said...

at ANY level...

AmenRa said...

Ben

XLF is trading lower so there is a 2nd bar on the weekly 3LB. A weekly close below 15.09 will do the trick.

Nic said...

CV - We will know its about to happen when they re-institute the ban on shorting financials again here.

CV said...

@Nic

Coming soon to a a town near you...

Nero is just "warming up" his fiddle strings...

call me ahab said...

"No buyer . . .at any level"

no doubt CV

Ra @ 8:44-

another no doubt-

joke of jokes- maybe they should concentrate on quality cars-

and let their customer's banks and credit unions make a decision on whether they should get a loan-

I know- that's crazy talk

CV said...

I may just have to erase the "1" off my cap...

Have it read "DOW 0,000"

CV said...

Damn... & this $200 burning a hole in my pocket I wanted to save it for 3 weeks and bet it on JACKSON BEND to win the Belmont...

Looks like I'm going to have to use it to buy 500 more pounds of rice bags instead :-(...

Nic said...

Bob, I hope you are still long EURAUD. Nice inverse head and shoulders now.

call me ahab said...

. . .and CV-

regarding Panera's-

WTF exactly- you give someone a choice between free and not free-

they'll take free every time(-:!!!!

CV said...

@ahab

It didn't USED to be that way...

But now the idea is "Obama will pay my gas & mortgage"...

McFearless said...

Ra,

thanks for that, re: XLF. A close below 15.09 would seem a high probability, guess we'll see.

call me ahab said...

'Have it read "DOW 0,000"'

LOL

CV said...

@ahab

Peggy... (from that video) needs to move her @ss to Missouri ASAP...

So now she has

- Obama paying her gas & mortgage
- Panera paying her bread & soup
- US taxpayers paying her healthcare

Peggy's GOT IT MADE!

She helped him out - now he's helping her out!

CV said...

But TWSWB thinks it's all a good idea I suppose...

CV said...

Even though he's an "independent" (rolls eyes)

CV said...

But in case IT'S NOT a good idea... He's 100% cash...

...so he has THAT going for him...

AmenRa said...

The bullish harami on weekly Sugar #11 looks like it will be confirmed. Also the week may close above the weekly 3LB mid of 14.85.

CV said...

I'm "dizzy" from my eyes doing circles...

CV said...

@Amen

Where does J6P trade SUGAR?

CV said...

Besides the "cavities" they get from watching any mainstream TV news coverage?

CV said...

Speaking of CAVITIES...

We're "gapping" down (below the 1110, .09 fibo level) on the open tomorrow...

CV predicts...

CV said...

If we don't...

I'm going with the "Hillbilly Bears" as the morning thread...

call me ahab said...

CV-

I caught that claim from BR today- but in his mind he is an independent- FWIW- so maybe he is more independent than his even more liberal friends-

so a libertarian basically- lol

call me ahab said...

nic-

regarding banning short selling in financials-

what a joke that was-

where's the confidence in that policy?

bob said...

yup, and loving my short audusd and audjpy positions too.

Took some of the Long EURAUD off the table too soon.

Nic said...

I loved the "National Debt by Presidents" that BR posted today. Even if you are a die-hard conservative the Bushes were an embarrasment.
One of my favourite SNL sketches was when McCain didn't want Bush to vouch for him and wouldn't stand next to him.

call me ahab said...

nic-

I caught that post- and tried to post a comment- bit alas his site was on the blink-

keep in mind- all the President's that saw a lowering debt-

it was America in its heyday- impossible to screw that up- we were tripping over money-

when that ride ended you had to come up with more creative ways to make it look like the country was "same as it ever was"

CV said...

@bob

"yup, and loving my short audusd"

LOL - all I can say is "YOU DA MAN"... That effer is gonna blow!

CV said...

@Nic

All kidding aside... The thing that bothers me about TWSWB isn't the chart (which really says NOTHING - IMO)...

But the "flaky" way he uses something like that to hide behind...

I mean, why not just come out and say...

"Look at how TRICKLE DOWN economics has failed and look who's responsible"... NO - Instead, he just puts up the chart, lets a bunch of NUMBNUTS draw stupid/singular dimension ideas about them... Then hides behind an "INDEPENDENT" label...

Excuse my language in front of ladies here... But that's PUSSY behavior!

BinT said...

It appears with only a little prodding, the Nikkei could finish below 10k...

Global ponzi...

BinT said...

It would appear that the Ron Paul of the big bloggers has been Mish...has not been afraid to state and restate his opinion that extend and pretend would always end badly...

CV said...

If I hear one more person talking about how GREAT a fiscal administrator CLINTON was I think I AM going to turn into the "Uni-bomber"...

OK let's see...

If I had...

- What Bush #41 started (taxes)
- Downsizing of military expenditures due to end of cold war.
- Venture capital pouring into INTERNET startups.
- Military technology transformed to civilian use (Internet).
- 401K holding "baby boomers" in their peak earnings years.
- Newt Gingrich coming in to curb my spending
- A failed HC initiative.
- Repeal of Glass-Steagal
- Greenspan at the helm of EASY MONEY


Jesus H. Christ, I'd have left office with about a $4 trillion SURPLUS!

The fact that he "barely" balanced the budget with all those tailwinds speaks, TO ME, of an EPIC FAILURE!

DL said...

B in T,

Looks like Ron Paul's son won the primary in Kentucky.

I was glad to see it, frankly.

DL said...

CV @ 10:10

A lot of capital gains also during Clinton's second term.

Nic said...

CV I am not defending any of them.
It's just a bit sad that fiscal and conservative don't belong together any more after those two.
I think we should rename it "fiscally responsible"

BinT said...

Switzerland and Germany both now have balanced budget amendments to their constitutions. It appears to me that if anything is going to work, this is the only thing that might do it.

As for me, it is goodnight ah, that sweet goodnight.....

bob said...

fiscally responsible-

I can't find it but there was an email a while ago about how at least 1/2 of all of the members of congress had BK'd at least 2 companies. Not one, two.

Presidents aren't much better.

call me ahab said...

"A lot of capital gains also during Clinton's second term"

so . . .what does that mean- exactly?

if a President can make the market go up he is a a GREAT man?

you go DL- that's the spirit-

anyway- check you all out in the AM

BinT said...

Arlen Spector beaten...

CV said...

@DL

But that's what I'm talking about...

Look... When the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, the "Cold War" was essentially over (or put on ice)...

Downsize military operations & expenditures...

The So Cal California industry took it hard... That's why "Mr. Opportunist" (Clinton) came in and said, "it's the economy stupid", and won the California electorate (with help from Ross Perot splitting the vote in other contestable states)...

Leonard the Monkey could have been President but the TECHNOLOGY "morphed" itself to this NEW THING called the INTERNET (that Al Gore invented)...

Venture capital was poured into startups, unregulated banks and capital flowed in and created the "dot.com" bubble...

It was all BS (much like everything the past year has been)... But that didn't stop a lot of "cottage industries" flourishing...

Techies need their coffee right? Enter STARBUCKS...

Books? Amazon

They all need houses to live in right? Office Space? Computers? Networks? Fiber Optic Lines? Consulting? Management?

Gimme a friggin' break...

Oh, & yeah, the USG "raked in" the tax revenues...

A MORON could have balanced the budget...

call me ahab said...

or should I say- if a President is in office "while" the market goes up he is a great man-

at least in DL's eyes-

Bush must have been a freaking genius- at least until 2007-

anyway- out for now

AmenRa said...

Australian dollar futures trading below 0.8772 is a monthly 3LB reversal down.

CV said...

@Nic

FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE...

I like that...

Note: I'm not defending any GOP here either... They spent like friggin drunken sailors during Bush 43's entire term in office...

My main point is... I don't like TWSWB's chart... It paints a "one dimensional & inaccurate picture...

And he seems to think of himself as SMART... Well then, why publish things that are clearly misleading?

Answer? To suck up to your Fusion clients who are most likely "stuck up" liberals (who happen to be stupid)...

CV said...

@ahab

I'm not defending DL here... He can do that for himself if he has to...

But I think what he was "trying to say" was something different than what you interpreted...

CV said...

@bob (10:21)

"I can't find it but there was an email a while ago about how at least 1/2 of all of the members of congress had BK'd at least 2 companies. Not one, two.

Presidents aren't much better."


Well, Barry Dunham (or whatever his name is) was a member of Congress and now he's President...

But, speaking for him... A point I've made many times... He's NEVER RUN SO MUCH AS A DAIRY QUEEN...

So I guess he hasn't BK'ed anyone yet... (Unless he's decided he wants to GO TO THE HEAD OF THE CLASS and just BK the USA)...

CV said...

@bob

Did Bush #43 BK anyone?

He sold the Texas Rangers at a handsome profit if I recall...

bob said...

You mean his maiden name? I have thoughts on that story, none that I would care to share here, but some thoughts..

bob said...

He got very lucky as I remember, his one great success was a company that he was running that got a huge amount of work from Saudi Arabia, on nothing more than his fathers name supposedly.

There are/were lots of stories about his father blessing his business career, and inferring that the buying of his companies were nothing more than back door bribes. Imagine that the former head of the president and former head of the CIA.

CV said...

@bob

I have thoughts on that story, none that I would care to share here, but some thoughts..

As do I...

But you know something? I'm sick and tired of "political correctness"... When was the last time a "politician" was ever CORRECT with you?...

So is it that "uneasy moment" (which the human mind wants to avoid), or is it something else?

Do people avoid saying TRUTHFUL things just so as to be more easily "liked" by others?

That's a joke, because if you're NOT TRUTHFUL from the onset... MARK MY WORDS... People will eventually discover that...

I've taught group exercise for over 25 years and I've learned that one thing... THE ONLY THING YOU POSSESS (in your "personna") is HONESTY...

Fail that test, and people will abandon you over time...

Pass that test, and people will eventually FLOCK to you...

CV said...

@bob

"He got very lucky as I remember"

OK... Fair enough...

But what about Barry Dunham and all his supposed "schooling"...

Who paid for all that?

I suppose that was all SKILL, not LUCK...

bob said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harken_Energy_scandal

One of them, there are much better stories out there, can't find any right now.

bob said...

A story from an Irish guy I know who was is a lawyer-

He had a partner at his firm that was Asian. The partner wanted to join the local CC, and was wondering why he was having so much trouble.

The Irish guy looked at him and said "I'm not white enough for that place"

McFearless said...

This article at BR's is interesting:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05/i-always-feel-like-somebodys-watching-me/

in light of this article in 2008 from EWI:
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2008/04/11/Germany-Speed-Limit-Is-Now-Reality.aspx

One of the Socionomic forecasts for the bear market is that speed limits will come down much as they did in 1974 when feds cut off 20 mph from the max/min speed limit.

Some of their recent notes:

Georgia recently passed a super speeder law which applies an extra $200 for going over 85 in a two lane highway or interstate roads. Tenn is considering a similar measure.

Towns and counties in several states are effectively lowering speed limits, PA, Michigan, Indiana, and Vermont among them.

Nic said...

I don't think dubya was BK but it was prolly close:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbusto_Energy

"In June 1990 Bush sold more than half of his shares in Harken to a Los Angeles broker named Ralph D. Smith. One week after the sale Harken announced an overall loss of $23.2 million triggering an investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission into the sale."

karen said...

CV, you have no idea how true your post rings with me.. especially right now.

McFearless said...

re: Arlen Specter,

this ad discussed here was played non-stop around here leading up to this election. It seems to have proved highly effective.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpw5KTvZKBI

Nic said...

Why do the speed limits come down? so they can make more money from speeding tickets?

karen said...

Nic! (my son still has some HKN! I dumped mine in December.. lol.. i told him to wait till he had a job so he could write the loss off his income.) So, i did catch your futures post way at the top but haven't looked into the Maudlin piece. I still have to get dinner on the table tonight.. it's 8:08 here..

bob said...

Speed limits come down to supposedly save gas, the theory goes that cars top out efficiency wise at about 50 mph 80kmh.

karen said...

Futures on crude are going to make up for the fact I'll be sleeping alone tonight!!

CV said...

@karen

Sadly (but not REALLY, because I know this time is coming eventually)...

As with STOCKS, as with WAVE PATTERNS, as with SOCIO-ECONOMICS...

CV is FULLY AWARE... that the "time" for this BLOG will eventually come to an end...

People MOVE ON... They EVOLVE... They MORPH... God, I hope it's that way (otherwise what is it that we talk about EVERY DAY here)?...

Let the markets do their job! Bacteria is a fundamental part of any "eco-system"...

I know ALL OF YOU are smart enough to move on when the time is right... That time may be tomorrow, or it may be farther in the future...

But it's THE WAY it's always been... It's THE WAY it will always be...

CHERISH that notion...

AmenRa said...

Just great. Our CONgress in full effect: Senate Rejects Ban of Naked Default Swaps

karen said...

CV @ 11:12.. I am NOT cherishing that notion.. whatever you are on tonight, get on something else!! xxoo

McFearless said...

Nic,

from the socionomic perspective speed limits coming down are part of the negative trend in social mood, it takes government a while to act on that trend because of how slow they move, but really controlling speed limits are part of a larger bear market socionomic theme which is authoritarian expression. Speed limit controls are one of many examples.

As Bob points out, many reasons will be given for this, people will say it's better for the environment, it's cheaper for municipalities to repair gravel roads, etc. What's interesting though is they begin to implement the rules now, these reasons always existed

karen said...

AR, so what do you think? I believe that these instruments should be disallowed, but my son half convinced me otherwise..

karen said...

okay, sorry, i gotta go cook!

bob said...

MCF,

I've got to get a picture of this for you, or maybe you have seen it-

Around here they have taken to putting another sign under every stop sign, slightly smaller, same color and shape.

"stop means stop"

CV said...

@karen

I'm fine... and I'm not going anywhere...

Sometimes tho, the only way to offer perspective is to come STRAIGHT FROM THE CENTER...

And FWIW...

Cv doesn't think there's going to be any "overnight miracle"...

I'm predicting GAP DOWN (below 1110) on the open tomorrow, and selling to follow...

My PRELIM prediction is that the 1083 area will be a "support zone" (not necessarily tomorrow - but if it happens, it happens)...

Perhaps the 'May 25th' call will be some WIGGLE LINES down to 1076 (which I-Man has been talking about - and which might come true)...

Anyway - that's my working thesis...

CV said...

@bob

See? Now THATS "authoritarian"...

When you think about it... if someone is ALERT and they come slowly to an intersection, if there is not the ABSOLUTE NEED to stop, they save more energy just coasting thru...

Roundabouts are BETTER solutions...

But we live in a GIB so why argue?

bob said...

I plan on finding all of the intersections without the double sign and flying through at 60 mph one night. When I finally get pulled over I will just plead ignorance, there was only one sign, and it didn't say "stop means stop", i figured it was optional.

McFearless said...

Bob,

Interesting, I haven't seen those down here just yet.

CV said...

@bob

LOL

Jeez... It's 2010 already... Id'a thought we'd be flying around in planes by now...

WTF?

CV said...

Little did they know when they were doing the FLASH GORDON futuristic stuff way back when...

The reality is that we'll all be back to horses and chariots...

AmenRa said...

bob

Actually that's not a bad idea because so many people do "hollywood" stops at stop signs. You may miss someone crossing the street if you don't look.

p.s. I come to a complete stop not just it's right but it pisses off the driver behind me who is tail gating and wasn't planning to stop at the sign. Don't get me wrong. I still have a lead foot.

McFearless said...

Celtics pull it off. And I'm off to bed.

Closing Thought:

Jet Packs.

AmenRa said...

Mind you. This is because these days kids just walk across the street without checking traffic.

bob said...

Pedestrians around here are fair game. I try to walk as much as possible and most people in their giant SUV's think that if they have a green light that means they can take a left or right without yielding to the pedestrian in the cross walk.

I drive a stick so I am not sure I have ever come to a complete stop.

CV said...

@Amen

Most dumbf***s are on the phone and probably don't even know that they're at an intersection in the first place...

They could tell you who survived "Dancing With The Stars" tho...

CV said...

@McF

Wizards won the LOTTERY PICK...

CV said...

CV is off to bed too...

Karen... buon appetito!

AmenRa said...

bob

I understand. I talking about kids who purposely cross the street (taking their time) as the light goes green. They figure they won't get hit. Until it happens.

AmenRa said...

I'm

bob said...

We have that with kids too around here, only they walk in the street, not on the sidewalk. I think a lot of that has to do with sidewalks being covered with snow in the winter. There are way too many accidents where a kid is run over and the kid was completely at fault.

AmenRa said...

Somebody is working really hard to keep the futures from getting out of hand. That is all.

DL said...

CV @ 10:33

Yes, you've got it right. Ahab misinterpreted.

DL said...

Quite a few comments here for a Tuesday night.

AmenRa said...

Did Germany just set itself up for a failed bund auction?

Mannwich said...

"Wincanity" and the Magic are done, folks. Bring on Kobe and the Fakers!

AmenRa said...

I think I'll try some reverse psychology and dream of green shoots...

karen said...

AR, LOL! I will dream of shoots tonight, too, but not green ones..

mcHAPPY said...

@Manny

Wincanity indeed!

CV said...

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