Weekend Post: "I'm on a Boat" Ed.

Ok Folks,

I'm setting sail on Sunday with my Family out of Florida for a Seven Day cruise.  Although T.Pain would have been fun, we're taking my Mom instead.  I've attached here a DXY update and should be able to get out some S&P 500 thoughts out later this evening.

My bias is to buy the DXY while the S&P 500 looks headed for 1220-1236 zone.

Silver's performance last week was a disappointment.  There is still some hope we see the low to mid $40s, but that would look like a sell.  The $39.50 resistance area has been a "tough nut" to crack.  Silver bulls should continue to pay attention to the $34.30 level for support.  If that breaks, it will look bleak.

Gold peaked right into our key resistance last week but has failed to attract "follow on" selling.  Even on a short term basis, I would not be long the yellow metal here.  It looks like we're beginning the c-wave lower in what looks like a triangle.

US Dollar Short Term Update 4JUN11


SP500 Short Term Update 4JUN11




One of my favorite SNL "Shorts": "I'm On a Boat" (Warning, it's explicit)

"I got my swim trunks and my  flippy floppies...."





To Prove that I'm not some sort of 'crass' individual who just watches 'expletive-laced' videos, I'll leave you with my favorite poem of all time as well.

This will serve as the QOTD for the remainder of the week, unless AR feels like changing it:
"If" by Rudyard Kipling

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.






Creditcane™: Do you feel lucky? Well do you?



SPX
Bearish long day (failed morning star formation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 50.0% retrace (1309.01). Failed weekly 3LB mid. Failed monthly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1331.10). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bearish long day (so a bearish engulfing in a downtrend is not good). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Failed its 14.6% retrace (73.95). Failed weekly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 75.76).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day (so bullish engulfing in an uptrend is good). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 85.4% retrace (1.4640). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4100).



JNK
Bearish long day (failed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its SMA(144). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failing its 61.8% retrace (40.10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Hammer day (didn't confirm bullish engulfing). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (29.48). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.21).



WTI
Bearish long day (with long tail). Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Held its 61.8% retrace (98.93). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).



SILVER
Doji day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.12). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% retrace (48.75). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 50.10).



EEM
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (48.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.09).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (0.8226). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8308).




WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.3.11

ATHENS (weekly info)
new low 1264.92
trend=down
hlow= 1264.92
rev= 1370.10; mid= 1317.51


The Greece Stock Exchange does not look like there's a new bailout plan in place. The weekly candle is forming an inverted hammer so we'll need to see follow through. I wonder if the rumor about the troika (EU, ECB, IMF) report is true.



CSCO (weekly info)
new low 16.50
trend=down
low= 16.50
rev= 17.37; mid= 16.94


It just isn't getting any better for CSCO. Last weeks "hammer" turned out to be from the toy store. The last thing they probably need is a bearish engulfing in a downtrend. But they're getting it.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.






Creditcane™: C'mon bulls. That tickles. Is that the best you can do?



SPX
Spinning top day (possible morning star forming). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and held the 50.0% retrace (1309.01). Failing weekly 3LB mid. Held monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB (reversal is 1345.20). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bearish long day (also is bearish engulfing but we're in a downtrend). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Failed weekly 3LB mid. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.10).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day (also bullish engulfing but we're in an uptrend). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4054).



JNK
Bearish short day (possible bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its SMA(144). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failing its 38.2% retrace (40.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Bullish engulfing day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.52). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.21).



WTI
Bullish thrusting day. Back above SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Held its 61.8% retrace (98.93). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.12). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Doji day (didn't confirm evening star pattern). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% retrace (48.75). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.10).



TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(233). No test of 0.0% retrace (97.72). Trading above its upper trend line. Tested and failed its 23.6% retrace (95.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 95.61).




WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.2.11

GOLD (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15


The trend higher in gold has not stopped even after the hard selling a month ago. Looking at the chart it seems that most dojis or spinning tops resolve higher. It's also well above its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. All SMA's are pointing higher.



SILVER (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 35.01
rev= 48.60; mid= 41.81

Usually silver and gold move together. That correlation has been shot to hell. It has not traded above the mid of the long bearish candle from a month ago (unlike gold). It's below its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. This week looks like the third test of SMA(21) and it appears to be failing. And it's gone.



COPPER (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 3.976
rev= 4.615; mid= 4.296

Copper is a proxy for the global economy. If that's so then things are not doing so well. It's below its weekly 3LB mid and again failing its monthly 3LB mid. This is the fifth week below SMA(21). The high (4.130) from the week of 11/12/10 has been breached so the next support comes in at the the high (3.784) from the week ending 4/16/10.


Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 43.259
rev= 32.629; mid= 37.944

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.



We just had a second helping of Goldilocks. Party on!


Creditcane™: Feel my wrath. I am the harbinger of things to come.



SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21), SMA(55) & SMA(89). Failed test of trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 38.2% retrace (1324.16). Failed weekly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1345.18). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bullish long day (confirmed hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Below all SMA's. Held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.10).



VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's (in one day mind you). Held its 23.6% retrace (18.28). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 15.45). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Tested and held its SMA(55). Failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4054).



JNK
Bearish long day (confirmed hanging man). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21), SMA(55), SMA(89) & SMA(144). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failed its 38.2% retrace (40.41). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.88).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day (and gapped lower). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (29.52). Still below the upper trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 31.21).



WTI
Bearish long day. Back below SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Failed its 50.0% retrace (102.07). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).



SILVER
Bearish long day. Held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the upper trend line. Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (38.05). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 36.12). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish long day (looks like a completed evening star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failed its 61.8% retrace (48.75). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 50.10).




WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.1.11

DXY (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 75.76
rev= 72.93; mid= 74.35

The dollar upward bias is under threat as it has closed the month below its monthly 3LB mid. It is holding above both of the upper trend lines. Treading water until 7/1/11 when QE2 ends. If some form of QE3 appears (under whatever name the Fed comes up with) the move down will be intense.



EURCHF (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 1.2172
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 1.2172
rev= 1.3140; mid= 1.2656

The proxy for European risk restarted its move lower by having a weekly 3LB reversal down last week. That's because any move higher is a temporary reprieve since its monthly 3LB started trending down in March 2008. So obviously bailout, no bailout, bailout, no bailout, etc makes no difference.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.