AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: These are not the droids you're looking for. Even Egypt couldn't stop the bulls. What's wrong with this picture?

SPX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1310.87). QE2infinity. JBTFD…



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still above SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 77.07).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.69). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1333.70). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Back below SMA(21). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Bullish short day (confirmed inverted hammer). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Closed above its 50% retrace (40.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).




10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20). The Bernank will again have a sleepless weekend.



DJ TRANS AVG
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4994.87). Also had a weekly 3LB reversal up.




XLF
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.74).



TLT
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. No daily 3LB (reversal is 89.72). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Trading above all SMA's. Still below its 85.4% retrace (0.8368). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8303).

"LEFTBACK'S" BOND REPORT

Today was a well-received respite from the wintry cold steel of my long tsys position, with the warmth of the always-ephemeral common sense assuaging the few of us fixed income investors who actually demand a premium for taking risk (if only for a day).

Spreads in credit seemed a bit too tight for me yesterday, and I was forced to crack my strategy and sell the remainder of my high yield position that I was holding as part of my core (2%->0%). I hate to drop a core holding, but cash can be just as comfortable (unless you are into gold buggery--har har!).

I wouldn't be surprised to see more tomfoolery early next week, pressuring the long bond (again), only to abate on a sell-the-news Wednesday.

Morning Corner 2.11.11

SUGAR (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 33.98
rev= 26.15; mid= 30.07


The sweet stuff is trying to show weakness but is still holding above its weekly 3LB mid. The monthly 3LB is trending up. Sooner or later the higher price will make its way through to finished goods.



EGPT (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 16.22
rev= 20.42; mid= 18.51


Mubarak offered to step down…in September. That's not exactly bullish. So this ETF will reflect reality soon enough. Plus the Egyptian Bourse isn't even open.

To free markets that are not manipulated we "Miss You"

TLT

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Screw the equity market. I'm having more fun with the bond market.

SPX
Hammer day (but a lower close hammer would be preferable). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.59). QE2infinity. JBTFD…



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Back above SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 77.07).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.30). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1333.70). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still below its 50% retrace (40.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.63).




10YR YIELD
Bullish short day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20). The Bernank is still having a sleepless week.



CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 335.44).




XLF
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.51).




TLT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 89.72). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



EEM
Spinning top day (finally escaped body of 2/1/11 candle). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Barely held its 38.2% retrace (45.06). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.76).



30YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.62).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.10.11

Risk was on a bit, but mainly it was a shellacking at the long end. Traders will continue to do this until there is some resolution of the debt ceiling issue or somebody else's bond market becomes more amusing to fuck with. Luckily Ireland and Portugal are out there.

Spreads are widening in muni land between the high and lower quality issues. You get the feeling we are in the "second inning" on this. Remember that, from the sub-prime crisis. In the 2nd inning, it was "contained". Mortgages are steady, the BERNANK will have that on his radar for sure. Take a look at TIPS, they are offering as much protection to investors as a rice paper condom.

Corpies: LQD -0.49%; AGG -0.29%; JNK 0.12%; HYG 0.11%
Govies: TLT -1.15%; IEI -0.22%; TIP -0.62%
Munis: IQI -0.76%; MUB 0.41%
Mortgages: MBB -0.09%
Specialty: ZROZ -1.85%; TBT 2.00%

We did nothing, we are riding our short of EEM. We are watching ZROZ and will eventually start a position. Second mouse.... ! We also have to set up a new portfolio for hedging FI and will probably do that Monday.
It is going to be a tough grind for a while in bonds until the economy shows signs of slowing down, which it will.

Morning Corner 2.10.11

CSCO (weekly info)
new high 22.01
trend=up
high= 22.01
rev= 20.17; mid= 21.09



Cisco missed on EPS but beat on revenue. Reduced forecast for future growth. AH closed below weekly 3LB reversal price and also below its 23.6% retrace. Monthly 3LB is still trending down. Stock has traded back up to gap resistance (up until earnings) and it will continue as resistance. It should reverse this week. If not then why even care about fundamentals.



QQQQ (weekly info)
new high 57.38
trend=up
high= 57.38
rev= 54.74; mid= 56.06



Technology is holding up for now. Cisco is only 2.4% of the Q's so its weakness may not do too much damage. Monthly 3LB is trending up. The blinking game continues.



FXI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 47.76
rev= 38.36; mid= 43.06



Trading below its weekly 3LB mid indicates weakness. It's very close to its monthly 3LB mid and a monthly close below that would ratchet up the weakness exponentially. It tested its 50% retrace twice. Will it catch a bid and go for a third test? Probably not since China keeps raising rates to keep inflation in check. This doesn't even include the 30% drop in real estate prices that they are planning. More yang than yin.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: The Bernank spoke and the word was good. It was unfortunate for the bulls that I was the word.

SPX
Bearish short day (possible bearish harami but yesterday's body is too small). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1307.59). QE2infinity. JBTFD…



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.13).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.30). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Doji day (possible evening star forming). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above SMA(21). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1333.70). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Well above 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Back below its 50% retrace (40.47). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 40.63).




10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.20). The Bernank is still having a sleepless week.



LQD
Bullish long day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB (reversal is 107.70). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



MUB
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 99.96). Still below the weekly 3LB mid.



EEM
Bearish long day (can't escape body of 2/1/11 candle). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Failed its 23.6% retrace (46.42). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.25).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.9.11

Maybe Ben does care about me, she mused, he was so doveish today... still I worry about those long nights working closely with Timmy. Cold Steel is still on her Rolodex... OK, on her I-Phone !!!

Corpies: LQD 0.65%; AGG 0.18%; JNK -0.62%; HYG -0.56%
Govies: TLT 0.87%; IEI 0.30%; TIP 0.29%
Munis: IQI -0.34%; MUB 0.28%
Mortgages: MBB 0.06%
Hedgies: TBT -1.63%

We did nothing today but did enjoy the respite provided by a risk-off day in credit after several days of getting much too familiar with Mr Steel.... too early to say if this was the peak in yields but the impulsive bounce off the sharp low yesterday had some elements of the bottom put in by TLT in April. Risks ahead include the PPI/CPI combo next week, and then the March jobs report. But we think a +250k is priced in, and it is clear that the QE2 is not going to be abbreviated.

The action in JNK and HYG today wasn't very bullish. Remember that credit usually leads equities.

Morning Corner 2.9.11

3 Month Libor (daily info)
-no change
trend=up
high= 0.312
rev= 0.304; mid= 0.308



One look at the chart says it all. Somebody is getting nervous over there.



SPX/Gold Ratio (weekly info)
new high 0.9711
trend=up
high= 0.9711
rev= 0.9288; mid= 0.9500



Still trying to figure out what happened in May-June 2002 to cause the huge gap down in the ratio. Area is definitely resistance if the ratio increases. Ratio also informs us that these "recovery" highs are not as good as we may think. This is where I was looking for investment news from back then: Investment News May 2002