TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 5.20.10

Morning Audibles 5.20.10

Ladies & Gents... I'm a little out of pocket this morning because I'm having some computer problems... I'm starting this new thread (just to get it started), but I'll have to insert the THEME later on...

CV

364 comments:

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CV said...: check...; May 20, 2010 at 8:35 AM
Nic said...: checking in; May 20, 2010 at 8:37 AM
Nic said...: Eurostox vix at 50.03%; May 20, 2010 at 8:40 AM
spoonman said...: wow, look at the futures. What happened?; May 20, 2010 at 8:40 AM
CV said...: Note: The "theme" was to be entitled the "6 degrees of Joey Heatherton"...

But it seems my computer couldn't handle the AWE of it all :-)...; May 20, 2010 at 8:41 AM
CV said...: @spoonman @NIC

Look closer at MY HAT avatar...

THAT's what happened to futures... :-); May 20, 2010 at 8:41 AM
spoonman said...: haha, I take that back Ben. I know, I know, nothing "happened", but what's the excuse?; May 20, 2010 at 8:41 AM
Anonymous said...: this just has me in stitches this morning-

All U.S. stocks will probably be subject to so-called circuit breakers by the end of this year . . Our expectation is that they will be more aligned with the underlying liquidity of the individual securities . . .For example, some stocks need to fall 10 percent to trigger the circuit breaker mechanism while some others only need to fall 5 percent or 2 percent

LOL- 2%- wow- crash worthy threshold there; May 20, 2010 at 8:44 AM
McFearless said...: Bruce,

From the other thread.....nice link on that article. Insanity....and GIB.; May 20, 2010 at 8:44 AM
McFearless said...: I still say we aren't lucky enough to end up like Japan.; May 20, 2010 at 8:44 AM
McFearless said...: 2%????

I wish all those in the leveraged long ETF's all the best. You will never ever be able to get out of your "investment" once this gets going. If you are in an ETN, you are already toast and don't even need the circuit breaker rules.; May 20, 2010 at 8:45 AM
McFearless said...: Betty on Bloom:

"futures have stabilized.....at the lows"; May 20, 2010 at 8:47 AM
72bat said...: from bruce's link
"average nationwide rate on a $30,000 home equity line of credit has dipped to 5.14 percent"
mine is more like 3.4%; May 20, 2010 at 8:48 AM
CV said...: @ahab

From other thread...

Obama... "Any otherwise law abiding citizen who dresses up like a teabag, or hell, even drinks tea, should be considered suspicious and subject to wire taps or deportation"... :-); May 20, 2010 at 8:50 AM
Anonymous said...: "I still say we aren't lucky enough to end up like Japan."

no doubt; May 20, 2010 at 8:51 AM
Anonymous said...: CV-

exactly my point!; May 20, 2010 at 8:53 AM
mcHAPPY said...: It is a beautiful day,
Don't let it go to waste.; May 20, 2010 at 8:54 AM
McFearless said...: man, watching sentiment on silver over the last year get into the 90's (bulls) has been a good short every time.; May 20, 2010 at 8:55 AM
mcHAPPY said...: As bad as things look for the S&P, from my count on the RUT, things look even worse - or better depending on perspective.

I am 100% TZA.; May 20, 2010 at 8:56 AM
mcHAPPY said...: The lows of yesterday will be good stopping points. It seems like we are going to have a major gap down to fill at some point. Would this be a fair assumption?; May 20, 2010 at 8:57 AM
mcHAPPY said...: BTW BAM had 2 warning levels for a breach (Can't remember them off top my head):

10,4?? & 10,2??; May 20, 2010 at 8:58 AM
McFearless said...: holy crap, look at the 10 year. We are oversold on a lot of indicators....and in P3, it just stays that way, there is no real "oversold" in a P3.; May 20, 2010 at 9:02 AM
McFearless said...: options pits making big bearish bets on China. I blame myself for not having done a better job shorting them and instead resorted to FXP. That was dumb of me....; May 20, 2010 at 9:03 AM
72bat said...: regarding proposed sec circuit breaker and etf's:
SEC's Weird Circuit Breaker Loophole
Many traders a bit baffled as to why the SEC excluded exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from the new circuit breaker rules. Especially hard to understand since two-thirds of the securities that had busted trades were ETFs.
Regardless, this may create some real volatility in ETFs, should the circuit breakers be triggered in a large number of stocks.
What happens to the SPY when some of its components are not trading and the SPY IS trading? It's not clear, but some obvious observations can be made:
1) in that period, the market will reflect where traders think the underlying securities MIGHT open
2) the bid/ask spread in the SPY will widen to reflect that uncertainty.
This will likely not last long. The SEC says that it plans "to expand the scope to securities beyond the S&P 500 (including ETFs) as soon as practicable."
No discussion of whether the trades might be cancelled or collectable; May 20, 2010 at 9:04 AM
AmenRa said...: Ben

PC ratio opend at 5.2 yesterday. Think that gets beaten today?; May 20, 2010 at 9:05 AM
McFearless said...: also hilarious in the MSM today, this continues to be repeated:

"markets are just trading on fear, don't forget the fundamentals"

you know, 'cause when we traded up...that was all just logic....no emotions.; May 20, 2010 at 9:07 AM
McFearless said...: Ra,

I wouldn't be surprised if it did, especially if we are in a 3rd of a smaller 3rd wave.; May 20, 2010 at 9:08 AM
mcHAPPY said...: How many circuits get blown today?; May 20, 2010 at 9:09 AM
Anonymous said...: "don't forget the fundamentals"

lol- as if they give a shit about that anyway- the fundamental could be woeful and the refrain would be- indexes are up because the market is predictive; May 20, 2010 at 9:10 AM
BinT said...: I think the flight of money yesterday out of Germany was interesting..this was reported by ZH, but the original news came from the Telegraph. I think that China's austerity measures, the weakening of Europe's strong man, the weariness of the world to extend and pretend, and now these new unemployment statistics...sometimes when your balloon is floating in a room full of pins you can expect to lose some hot air...; May 20, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Anonymous said...: what are the circuit breakers currently- a bit higher than 2% possibly(-:!!!!!!; May 20, 2010 at 9:12 AM
McFearless said...: another thing they are saying ahab:

"euro should have little impact on earnings"

when all we heard when we had a weak dollar was how great it was for earnings.; May 20, 2010 at 9:13 AM
Anonymous said...: I wonder- the algos must be programmed to kick in and buy once certain thresholds are met-

or will they just shut off and refuse to trade like on the 6th-

open question; May 20, 2010 at 9:16 AM
McFearless said...: also, the nonsense of "well most everyone missed Greece" has already started from many pundits as an excuse. Bob Doll just put it to work.; May 20, 2010 at 9:18 AM
McFearless said...: ahab, question can be written both ways:

I wonder- the algos must be programmed to kick in and SELL once certain thresholds are met-; May 20, 2010 at 9:19 AM
BinT said...: http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/claims.htm

"On the positive side, emergency benefits declined by 94,788 for the week ending May 1. This was the second consecutive month of declines, but the data have shown significant volatility over the past couple of months. It is unknown if the drop in claims was due to an increased expiration rate of worker benefits or if there was an increase in hiring of long-term unemployed. Given the steep rise in initial claims, we are leaning more towards the expiration scenario as the reason for the decline."

...Duh. I suspect this is explainable. And don't forget our little cadre of census workers....; May 20, 2010 at 9:22 AM
karen said...: uh-oh.. just tuning in.. am i seeing what i think i'm seeing?; May 20, 2010 at 9:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Some interesting stories via marketwatch.com/

Chinese official:Wall St. is barbaric(Caixin Online). LOL!

Dollar on the rise/Radioactive euro(WSJ.com).; May 20, 2010 at 9:29 AM
spoonman said...: and away we go...; May 20, 2010 at 9:31 AM
McFearless said...: lets see where I can exit these q's puts today.; May 20, 2010 at 9:32 AM
CV said...: @Amen

That's "5" reddies :-); May 20, 2010 at 9:35 AM
McFearless said...: 80:1 down open nearly on NYSE. We've had 5 90% down days since this got started. Way more bearish than the other sell-off's we've had during Primary Wave 2.; May 20, 2010 at 9:35 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

I saw it. The bulls are going to be dinner today.; May 20, 2010 at 9:37 AM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll out to a meeting- just when all the fun is starting-

try to catch up with you all later this afternoon-

later; May 20, 2010 at 9:41 AM
AmenRa said...: 1088.73 is the 0.0236 fibo from the close. 1072.46 is the 0.0382 fibo and is up next after closing below 1088.73.; May 20, 2010 at 9:45 AM
CV said...: What's funny is this...

It'll probably head towards that gap closure on 2/12... (which 'theoretically' got filled on the FLASH CRASH)... But

near that same level are a bunch of gap ups & downs...

2/4... 11/6 come to mind; May 20, 2010 at 9:46 AM
CV said...: @Amen

What I just said lines up with your 1072.46 fibo then...; May 20, 2010 at 9:46 AM
CV said...: It also "GANNS" perfectly with the 1151 top in January...; May 20, 2010 at 9:47 AM
AmenRa said...: Looks like retail couldn't wait for Johnny hour to be over.; May 20, 2010 at 9:52 AM
CV said...: @Amen

That's Harry Wanger trying to "buy it back" to 1097 :-); May 20, 2010 at 9:56 AM
CV said...: So the ALGOS are pausing here to fill his orders...; May 20, 2010 at 9:58 AM
AmenRa said...: CV

HAHAHAHAHA

How's that BIDU working out?; May 20, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: $70, line in the sand? for OIL?

Guess who is working hard to keep it that mirage going?; May 20, 2010 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Could be seeing a perfect 61.8% of A=C down on the sp futures...for a big triangle development basis my count from two weeks ago. -AT; May 20, 2010 at 10:01 AM
Mannwich said...: Fat pinky finger?; May 20, 2010 at 10:02 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I'm still short BIDU... Haven't covered yet :-)...

I'm thinking 62 I might take a little off the table...; May 20, 2010 at 10:03 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Algo wars.... The 25 point swings are starting again on the DOW.

FYI BAM is calling for 7070 next week on the DOW.; May 20, 2010 at 10:07 AM
AmenRa said...: Volume A/D
S&p 0.03
NYSE 0.03
Nasdaq 0.05
Russell 2k 0.07

EURJPY -1.87%
AUSJPY -3.97%

VIX 40+

Bulls have a lot of work to do to get out of this.; May 20, 2010 at 10:07 AM
I-Man said...: Back at work... email should be outlawed.

Catch up with yall later, after I sift through the crap in my inbox.; May 20, 2010 at 10:08 AM
I-Man said...: I just knew that was an obvious bullshit pump into the close yesterday... hence, the balderdash.; May 20, 2010 at 10:09 AM
72bat said...: macro-man has put up the only chart you will need today; May 20, 2010 at 10:14 AM
CV said...: Balderdash!

You just wanted to exclaim it...

Everybody does... :-); May 20, 2010 at 10:14 AM
McFearless said...: AT,

Lets hope note, I'd rather an impulse than an A-B-C.; May 20, 2010 at 10:15 AM
CV said...: Nobody says it better than Jeff Macke...; May 20, 2010 at 10:15 AM
bob said...: Yesterday morning had more volume on SPY, it looks like anyway.; May 20, 2010 at 10:16 AM
Mannwich said...: @CV: The "car people"! It's the "car people" goddammit!; May 20, 2010 at 10:16 AM
AmenRa said...: GOOG has been taken out to the woodshed and shot.; May 20, 2010 at 10:19 AM
CV said...: Crude is getting WHALLOPED...

I'd better see $2.60 (or lower) at the pump soo or I'm going to be pissed!; May 20, 2010 at 10:20 AM
Mannwich said...: Holy TLT and ZSL.; May 20, 2010 at 10:23 AM
72bat said...: holy tza too; May 20, 2010 at 10:25 AM
I-Man said...: If the I was short, the I would be covering...

Just to regroup.; May 20, 2010 at 10:25 AM
karen said...: still have my crude short.. anyone going long?? lol aapl at 238.. where is DL, he wanted it there. goog at 475? takers??; May 20, 2010 at 10:26 AM
Anonymous said...: who shot swhc; May 20, 2010 at 10:26 AM
mcHAPPY said...: @Ra 10:19

LOL; May 20, 2010 at 10:27 AM
mcHAPPY said...: mcHAPPY is loving TZA, bat.; May 20, 2010 at 10:27 AM
CV said...: @karen

You deserve a PURPLE HEART medal for holding onto that crude short all the way thru...

I'm glad it's finally paying off :-); May 20, 2010 at 10:29 AM
72bat said...: bat is wit ya, mchappy; May 20, 2010 at 10:30 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I bet Germany is wishing they had a few people to provide a floor via shorts. :D; May 20, 2010 at 10:32 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I "may" have to break down and cover a little BIDU here...

It's day 5...

I gotta say... I think it should be getting whalloped harder, but it's not... YET...

Oh well...; May 20, 2010 at 10:34 AM
I-Man said...: Like to see a run up to 1096 or so before getting heavy short again...

1086 could be a resistance level also (takuri low from 2/25)...; May 20, 2010 at 10:35 AM
Anonymous said...: posted in the lastest todd harrison

To channel Professor Jason Goepfert, who just posted this on our Buzz & Banter in real-time this morning:

With major selling pressure so far this morning, this would be only the sixth time in history that the S&P 500 futures fell five days then gapped down by more than -1%.

All five of the others closed higher than the open. For those curious, the dates were 4/8/02, 12/6/02, 1/23/08, 10/8/08 and 10/10/08.

If we look at four down days then a -1% gap, the S&P closed higher than the open 11/13 times.; May 20, 2010 at 10:36 AM
I-Man said...: 1087 is the 55ema on the weekly, also...; May 20, 2010 at 10:37 AM
Mannwich said...: The giant game of chicken has taken a turn. When do we get a little snapback rally? Must be coming soon, right?; May 20, 2010 at 10:37 AM
AmenRa said...: Anon

This time it's different.; May 20, 2010 at 10:38 AM
karen said...: i still think this market is engineered to only go up..; May 20, 2010 at 10:39 AM
AmenRa said...: BKX -4%+
XLF -2%+; May 20, 2010 at 10:39 AM
I-Man said...: The fact that we are so far off the 55ema on the daily charts gives me a little pause...

55ema on the daily is all the way back up at 1157...

I realize the crash screwed that up a bit, but still... there's a lot of snapback potential here...

"My zodiac sign reads caution..."; May 20, 2010 at 10:39 AM
bob said...: Heads up on a possiblity-

Inverse Head and shoulders on the EURUSD. If that starts to really rally, it could be the mother of all short squeezes, right before op ex.; May 20, 2010 at 10:40 AM
DL said...: Karen @ 10:26

I said AAPL was a "buy" at $210.

I still think so.; May 20, 2010 at 10:40 AM
karen said...: okay, CV, are you going to buy C? all the smart guys have loaded up on it.. shall we?; May 20, 2010 at 10:40 AM
AmenRa said...: AUSJPY -5.3%+
EURJPY -2.6%+; May 20, 2010 at 10:41 AM
karen said...: i thot you said 235 would interest you.. we'll skip it.; May 20, 2010 at 10:41 AM
CV said...: I still have in the back of my mind that there will be some kind of "bottom" to this selling wave on DAY 21...

That would make it Next Tuesday (May 25th)...; May 20, 2010 at 10:41 AM
mcHAPPY said...: On the five minute candles I am seeing the start of a 5th wave down. I'd imagine we get a bounce around 1086 or so HOWEVER, I will not be trying to play it. All the corrections of late have barely made it past .382. If you thought 1 was fun, wait for 3!; May 20, 2010 at 10:43 AM
karen said...: oh! my miner just hit my target (gap fill at 2.70) i might buy that..; May 20, 2010 at 10:43 AM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

The 233SMA is 1078.62 on the daily. Already has been breached.; May 20, 2010 at 10:43 AM
CV said...: @karen

I'm still "mulling over" C

The price I had in my mind was around $3.50...

A lot of other things have to happen in conjunction with that...

My BASIC logic is if things calm down a little, you might be able to run C into July earnings...

If it gets to $4.55... You got yourself 30% in a very liquid stock...

JTOL; May 20, 2010 at 10:44 AM
mcHAPPY said...: CV,

I think you are right on the bottom day - however, I think it will be around low to mid 800's.; May 20, 2010 at 10:44 AM
mcHAPPY said...: "... bounce TO around 1086 or so..."; May 20, 2010 at 10:45 AM
I-Man said...: I'm with you Bob... that could get ugly real fast...

And wipe alot of folks out in a hot minute if they arent playing smart.; May 20, 2010 at 10:45 AM
CV said...: For the record...

CV has closed out everything and is 100% cash at the moment...

I feel just like TWSWB; May 20, 2010 at 10:46 AM
I-Man said...: If we carve a double bottom here on the SPX 1min chart around that 1078 Ra just mentioned, then I think you got to get out of the way...; May 20, 2010 at 10:47 AM
I-Man said...: Touche, CV... touche.; May 20, 2010 at 10:47 AM
CV said...: I ought to celebrate with a Jelly Donut (like that private in Full Metal Jacket)... :-); May 20, 2010 at 10:47 AM
karen said...: nothing looks very cheap to me! even ko!; May 20, 2010 at 10:48 AM
bob said...: Iman, really bugging me that we are not seeing more volume and that there hasn't been more selling since the 10:30 fix.

If this were really what it is playing as, day before opex, volume should be through the roof by now.; May 20, 2010 at 10:48 AM
I-Man said...: 1122 by the close would be some serious cold steel I imagine...

Certainly a possibility- but I know it sounds a bit nutty.

I just try to be prepared, I hate being surprised by the tape... especially when I'm short.; May 20, 2010 at 10:49 AM
DL said...: I certainly think it would be a good idea to close all shorts at this point.; May 20, 2010 at 10:50 AM
CV said...: @McHappy

Well if it gets to 840, I think CV would win all the booty...

My "calls" (back in December) on Andy T's blog were:

2010 HIGH = 1235
2010 LOW = 840; May 20, 2010 at 10:50 AM
karen said...: oops, new low in crude.. i should part with half.. but i really want to see it at 65..; May 20, 2010 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: DL! you said that yesterday!; May 20, 2010 at 10:53 AM
CV said...: @karen

You're DTO'ing that right?; May 20, 2010 at 10:55 AM
DL said...: Karen @ 10:53

You sure I phrased it that way? I don't think so.; May 20, 2010 at 10:56 AM
I-Man said...: One could probably just turn the SPX off alltogether and just watch EURUSD 1.23...

Some serious defense being played at that level, and its the right shoulder of that inverse H&S on the 60min chart...; May 20, 2010 at 10:56 AM
Mannwich said...: Dumped my small DTO holding that I had almost forgotten about.; May 20, 2010 at 10:57 AM
CV said...: @I-Man

Ultimately that's a USELESS battle...

Time will prove it laughable...; May 20, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: I closed the Q puts today at 2.40. Peak was 2.75, purchased some at 1.15, some at .98. so I can live with that. Something is bothering me about today....the A=C that AT points out is too good looking to ignore so I'm in cash with some of you.; May 20, 2010 at 10:57 AM
McFearless said...: Haven't closed the silver short yet for full disclosure.; May 20, 2010 at 10:58 AM
karen said...: yes.. dto.. cost basis up 10% but 45-ish% on some shares.. may take half off here..watching carefully.. another new low in crude this minute.; May 20, 2010 at 10:59 AM
DL said...: FWIW, I did some buying about 20 minutes ago.; May 20, 2010 at 10:59 AM
McFearless said...: I can't do a long here, while I might trim shorts, there's nothing in the wave count that makes me confident that its wise to be long...; May 20, 2010 at 11:01 AM
bob said...: CV,

In the long run agreed, but the carry is unwinding and it is really screwing with everything.

http://www.forexlive.com/108006/all/heres-why-eurus-is-holding-up; May 20, 2010 at 11:03 AM
AmenRa said...: Trying to hold the market up until the European close....; May 20, 2010 at 11:05 AM
karen said...: DL, you are right, you didn't phrase it that way at all.. my apologies! however, if spx closes below 1090.. i will smile a bit.

and even tho i do think we'll rally.. i can't find anything i want to buy.. erx for a bounce maybe?? or drn.. down 11% today.; May 20, 2010 at 11:05 AM
CV said...: This is interesting because even though we're expressing it in different ways, we're all on the same page...

Some are "buying" for a bounce here... Most "shorts" are covering...

I still say NEXT TUESDAY will end the pattern...

Perhaps there's some quick turnaround (back up in a flash tomorrow thru Monday), then back down for a final low on Tuesday...

I'm not playing it either way... I'm just content to watch...; May 20, 2010 at 11:06 AM
BinT said...: Yeah, yeah...where is Joey Heatherton....? Did you think we'd forget?; May 20, 2010 at 11:07 AM
karen said...: i still think spx could tap 1072 today..; May 20, 2010 at 11:08 AM
BinT said...: McFearless said...
I can't do a long here, while I might trim shorts, there's nothing in the wave count that makes me confident that its wise to be long...

...I understand some are Filling shorts this morning....; May 20, 2010 at 11:09 AM
DL said...: Karen @ 11:05

Regarding predictions, there's "right", there's "wrong", and there's "close".; May 20, 2010 at 11:09 AM
CV said...: @karen

To clarify those "other things" I was expressing earlier (on C)...

If the pattern plays out as I described...

- "correction" ends on Tuesday
- Citi near $3.50
- other oversold indicators flashing

I may take a punt and buy there...; May 20, 2010 at 11:09 AM
BinT said...: Joey...Joey....Joey...

Come on coach, put Joey in...; May 20, 2010 at 11:11 AM
AmenRa said...: BinT

LOL @ "filling shorts"; May 20, 2010 at 11:13 AM
BinT said...: http://www.cnbc.com/id/37250960

German Finance Minister: Markets Out of Control

...Ah, yes....the winners laugh and joke...the losers cry,"Deal!"....

...It was ever so.; May 20, 2010 at 11:14 AM
CV said...: @BinT

We'll get to Joey Heatherton...

The problem with my computer is very simple...

I need a new "AA" battery for the mouse... So I'm navigating screens here with my keyboard...

That's why it's easy to post "comments"...

Too many hoops to jump thru to go through blogger and post a thread with images... And I'm kind of glued to these market moves so I can't go to the store & get more batteries...

I know I know... CV doesn't have something "in stock"? ALERT THE MEDIA! It's a Black Swan event of incredible magnitude...

I think THE MARKETS picked up on it (thus the heavy downdraft today)... The PPT is going to have to come in and rescue my lack of preparedness!; May 20, 2010 at 11:14 AM
bob said...: CV

I had that happen, then got rid of the wireless mouse.; May 20, 2010 at 11:15 AM
mcHAPPY said...: Watching 655.33 on RUT and 1088.08 on SPX.; May 20, 2010 at 11:16 AM
karen said...: anyone want to help me pick i qid target for the day? i have some in the 16s.. ; ); May 20, 2010 at 11:17 AM
McFearless said...: while I won't mind being wrong this doesn't look like a 3 of 3....; May 20, 2010 at 11:18 AM
BinT said...: Well, CV, I sold the 10 years I bought early this month...a considerable sum...way to early. Duh..let's see which rule is it..number 6A..."let you winners run"...yep that's the one.; May 20, 2010 at 11:19 AM
karen said...: you know what? we do need to take out flash crash lows just to set the charts right.. if you look at qqqqs it looks so easy/doable.; May 20, 2010 at 11:19 AM
72bat said...: cv -
"for want of a nail..."; May 20, 2010 at 11:20 AM
AmenRa said...: Trin bumps higher each time the market grinds higher. Volume in declining issues keeps increasing.; May 20, 2010 at 11:21 AM
I-Man said...: 18.16 for a new limit buy maybe?; May 20, 2010 at 11:21 AM
DL said...: Karen @ 11:19

I wouldn't rule it out... just don't think it'll stay there very long if it gets there.; May 20, 2010 at 11:24 AM
BinT said...: Any errors in typing in subsequent posts by BinT or Bruce in Tennessee are not the fault of the poster. If you have trouble deciphering spelling or meaning of the posts of the above individual you may ask for a return of investment by calling:

1-800-Obamacaresaboutme.

If you are underwater in investments, car payments, mortgage payments, alimony, child care, traffic fines, credit card payments, or anything else, remember this is a free call.; May 20, 2010 at 11:24 AM
CV said...: @McF

I don't know what a "3" of "3" looks like (other than by description)...

But I think you're right... Based on what I've heard, it doesn't look like that either...; May 20, 2010 at 11:25 AM
I-Man said...: I'm toying with a small countertrend play in UPRO...

Long at 138, stop at 136.40; May 20, 2010 at 11:30 AM
McFearless said...: C,

A huge 3 of 3 looks like early fall 08, this would be similar but on a smaller degree, it's not happening.....internal it does not look like this.; May 20, 2010 at 11:30 AM
McFearless said...: Ra, 11:21

bulls are using a ton of energy here, working twice as hard to attempt to get the same result as sellers.; May 20, 2010 at 11:31 AM
I-Man said...: Price target = 148; May 20, 2010 at 11:31 AM
CV said...: @DL

I wouldn't rule it out... just don't think it'll stay there very long if it gets there.

I'm on board with that assumption... Again, I think it'll all happen quickly... (perhaps Tuesday)...

We'll get a lot of huddling around the 1065 level, and do a lightning quick dip to say 1042 (probably to trigger a few SELL orders set way back in February)... But then the markets get bought back up...

I can't see them letting this thing go flapping in the wind until the end of June...

There's still plenty of time to do a kick save... Last QUARTER closed on 1168... Hell, a 61.8% retrace (1042 back up to 1219.8) would put you in that zone...

FLAT QUARTER... HO HUM... Now let's see those BANK earnings in July... Band played on...; May 20, 2010 at 11:33 AM
I-Man said...: If UPRO can take out 140 to the upside in the next few bars, probably raise stop to breakeven.; May 20, 2010 at 11:33 AM
CV said...: "OBAMACARESABOUTME"

Hmm... I'm guessing that's what is written on his mirror as he gives it that smug grin every morning...; May 20, 2010 at 11:35 AM
mcHAPPY said...: I just sold all TZA.; May 20, 2010 at 11:36 AM
CV said...: @McF

Question... Let's say WE DID get a move down to 1042-ish on Tuesday... Followed by a trip back up to say... 1153-1180...

Wouldn't those qualify as a "1" & "2" (from 1219.8)?

If so, that could be a MEGAGALACTIC 3 (starting in July-August)... You follow?; May 20, 2010 at 11:39 AM
McFearless said...: C,

Yep, they could, but we'll have to see how a move like that takes shape and then determine if it's a 1-2 or not.; May 20, 2010 at 11:41 AM
CV said...: @McF

Thanks... JTOL

I'm kind of hoping something like that shapes up...

Volatility is finally back! Thank goodness!; May 20, 2010 at 11:44 AM
72bat said...: End of Rent Slump in U.S. May Protect Economy From Deflation
don't recall seeing many msm cautions on "protecting" the economy from deflation - d-word rarely mentioned; May 20, 2010 at 11:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Test

Prashant; May 20, 2010 at 12:09 PM
I-Man said...: No more countertrend dicking around...; May 20, 2010 at 12:18 PM
Lord John said...: Bummer I-Man,
I was watching the ticker hoping that would work out for you.; May 20, 2010 at 12:28 PM
I-Man said...: Just a paper trade, no worries...

Still think there is going to be a tradable bounce here, but I dont have the inclination to even map it out at this point.

One could probably still get a nice long entry on that if there is a double bottom carved out at 1078.

But the smartest trade here, is likely no trade.; May 20, 2010 at 12:31 PM
CV said...: TD Ameritrade down...

LMAO - Here's the "new" pattern recognition software...

We recognize that the market is in freefall so we're shutting down all your accounts until Jamie & Lloyd get in there and position themselves to rob you blind...; May 20, 2010 at 12:31 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

Smartest trade is to wait until Tuesday...; May 20, 2010 at 12:32 PM
McFearless said...: C,

I agree, love the volatility coming back. The grind higher was def. getting old.; May 20, 2010 at 12:33 PM
McFearless said...: did you all see the LEI reading today? Worst in about a year.

but no worries, ECRI smoothed is at a 40 week low, but there is certainly no double dip potential.; May 20, 2010 at 12:35 PM
CV said...: Latest from Hugh & Eclectica

http://www.scribd.com/doc/31676120/Eclectica-Letter-May-2010; May 20, 2010 at 12:37 PM
mcHAPPY said...: This whole move looks corrective and very much like the close yesterday.; May 20, 2010 at 12:37 PM
bob said...: Nic, are you around?; May 20, 2010 at 12:37 PM
I-Man said...: @ Ra:

Wasnt 108.57 on SPY something important? I cant remember...; May 20, 2010 at 12:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Funny comments at Marketwatch.com/ Peter Brimlow's article,"China's cookie is finally crumbling".

"A long time China bull has pulled his horns. But he's not given up. He( Cabot's China & Emerging Markets Report). Some financial letter. Still long of Bidu and CTRIP.

Someone there, is asking where was market watch a month ago? Bearish headlines on a down day.; May 20, 2010 at 12:42 PM
I-Man said...: Nevermind... just came back to me...

It was:

67.10 x 1.618; May 20, 2010 at 12:44 PM
I-Man said...: And just for reference:

666.79 x 1.618 = 1078.87; May 20, 2010 at 12:45 PM
McFearless said...: If hendry is correct, the short AUD:JPY idea is going to be one hell of a trade.; May 20, 2010 at 12:48 PM
mcHAPPY said...: I went short again.; May 20, 2010 at 12:48 PM
DL said...: McF

Short AUD/JPY... at THIS point?; May 20, 2010 at 12:49 PM
karen said...: crude went sub 65..; May 20, 2010 at 12:54 PM
McFearless said...: impossible karen, I saw a guy on Bloom this morning from Brazil, he said 65 was the "absolute floor"; May 20, 2010 at 12:55 PM
DL said...: I-Man,

On "flash-crash" Thursday, you remarked that very few customers were calling the office.

What about now?; May 20, 2010 at 12:55 PM
bob said...: Iman, MCF, what's Johnny thinking?; May 20, 2010 at 12:56 PM
I-Man said...: Fuck it, its just a damn paper trade.

I'm swinging at UPRO again... long 133, stop 131.70, target 147.

Feeling a bounce off the 1078.; May 20, 2010 at 12:57 PM
karen said...: ben.. well, i do see a floor at 60..; May 20, 2010 at 12:58 PM
Mannwich said...: Lot of bears expecting a bounce, it seems, which means maybe we don't get one like the late Jan - early March '09 period? Sell in May and go the fuck FAR FAR away?; May 20, 2010 at 12:59 PM
I-Man said...: @ DL

I've been out all week, but looks like business as usual... the only "panicky" call I've gotten today is from a broker at a smaller boutique AM firm, who doesnt think his firm can survive another 20% plus correction.

But for all intents and purposes, its all quiet on the western front...

My intuition is, people arent scared yet.; May 20, 2010 at 12:59 PM
McFearless said...: Bob,

I'd imagine many are freaking out. From my perch though people are complacent.

I've not gotten a single call or e-mail about the market in two weeks now. Of course, I'm not exposed, and many of my clients were short for this. Some I went short for earlier this year also have a nice profit now.; May 20, 2010 at 12:59 PM
mcHAPPY said...: Is she going over the edge again?; May 20, 2010 at 1:00 PM
Mannwich said...: Looks eerily like that time period with rumors of hedge funds liquidating to preserve capital. Yikes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-hedge-funds-liquidating-preserve-capital; May 20, 2010 at 1:00 PM
CV said...: @karen

I see floors... lots & lots of them :-); May 20, 2010 at 1:00 PM
I-Man said...: Dammit all! This is a great example of why I'm not ready to trade again.

I'm a real dick for the tick.; May 20, 2010 at 1:00 PM
Mannwich said...: Of course this is once again all so "surprising". Yawn.; May 20, 2010 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: dow 10k looking plausible, possible, probable : ); May 20, 2010 at 1:01 PM
bob said...: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qSr7J2OM2k

Mr. Topstep; May 20, 2010 at 1:01 PM
BinT said...: Bait and switch...yep. Promised Joey Heatherton, and we get CV and his hairy legs...

EXTREME disappointment....; May 20, 2010 at 1:02 PM
CV said...: My friends that I e-mail back and forth about this stuff keep writing me and talking about

"long term market views"

They've been hypnotized well by the their brokers & financial television...

These guys think they're smart because they watch CNBS; May 20, 2010 at 1:03 PM
BinT said...: Well, we're only down 92!....er, wait....

....that's the nasdaq.......; May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM
McFearless said...: and Bob,
I just asked the smartie in the back if he's gotten any calls, you know, the guy that was telling my biz partner and I that BIDU split if we wanted to "get in"???

Yeah, he says he's gotten no calls.; May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM
CV said...: @bob

Thanks for that Mr. TOPSTEP... I was just going to ask Nic about that...; May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM
I-Man said...: Karen, if you were here, I'd be high fiving you, yet again.

Nice work.; May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM
McFearless said...: EWI is sticking by their 8,500 down call before this first larger wave down is over. Haven't seen that call anywhere else.; May 20, 2010 at 1:04 PM
I-Man said...: I swear, if we get that face ripper up to 1110 now, I'm turning my screen off.; May 20, 2010 at 1:06 PM

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Morning Audibles 5.20.10

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