AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection


SPX
Bullish thrusting day. Still far below 1110.02 (fibo .09) Midpoint submerged below 10 SMA. Back above the 233 SMA (1079.31). Also back above the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 1078.87. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1165.87). Trending down on the daily 3LB. Made new weekly low (confirming reversal) and is below the monthly 3LB reversal price. QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint above 10 SMA (barely). The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. Weekly chart is bearish thrusting. No daily 3LB changes.



VIX
Bearish engulfing day. Fear of the truth of how bad it really is. Closed back below the 38.2% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Trading well above the monthly 3LB reversal (24.51).



GOLD
Spinning top day (again). Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA. "Ring ring. Hello? This is your margin call. Sell whatever you have to...again." To hell with fiat! (Gold's rally cry). New low on daily 3LB with reversal still 1220.30.



EURUSD
Doji day. Guess they're unsure about the BS also. Midpoint above the 10 SMA. Fibo level of 1.2935 is history. Up next is 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level). Don't be fooled. It still has problems. Still below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes.



JNK
Bullish engulfing day. But it didn't close the gap. Now above the 14.6% retrace but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint below 10 SMA (downtrend). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).



GS
Bullish long day. Midpoint below the 10 SMA. Still below the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Looking to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12 (oh yeah it's coming). Note: All MA's are still pointing down. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 142.32).


WTI
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below 10 SMA. Closed above 23.6% retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 71.61).

20 comments:

CV said...

@Amen

You answered my question from the other thread with this wrap...

Thanks... Have a cold beer! :-)

CV said...

To show my appreciation, I'm DOUBLING your salary next week!

McFearless said...

Ra,

thanks so much for the wrap man.

RR had this to say in his letter today:

I've been computing my PTI on a daily basis since the early 1960s. In 50 YEARS THIS IS THE MOST DECISIVE TOP (chart below) I can ever remember.

Nic said...

McF Who is RR? did you mean RP?

Nic said...

Thanks Ra-Man

McFearless said...

Richard Russell Nic.

I do read other people besides Prechter, hard as that may be to believe.

Prechter is my market hero though.

McFearless said...

He's also got a P&F of the DOW

Target: 8,600

I'm not a huge fan of P&F's but when they work they are typically quite accurate.

This would match EWI's call for the end of intermediate wave 1. A large wave 2 would follow with all our typical retracement levels.

McFearless said...

Nic,

Just read the posts at your blog, gotta love when people get on you for taking profits. Last I checked that never put anyone into the poor house.

I got a lot of similar comments on AAPL, as one of many examples.

AmenRa said...

Funny that Cramer is calling the ramp into the close BS. I figured he'd be all for it and how bullish the market looks.

AmenRa said...

Normally with 3LB the weekly would trend before you would break the monthly reversal price. Thanks to the "flash crash" certain moves have been accelerated.

AmenRa said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
AmenRa said...

CV

I don't care if the month closes at 1095.62. It's still a reversal :o)

AmenRa said...

Also what was the deal with the rumor that GS had settled with the SEC?

mcHAPPY said...

I'm seeing nothing now. I cannot see how this can't be the end of a 2. I'm seeing a solid A-B-C from 1055 with a 5-3-5 for A and 5 waves up for C on the 2 minutes.

HOwever, if we break 1095.09 I'll be selling out because I can't see any other count that works. Anyone care to enlighten me?

karen said...

i'm livid! Chop AR's salary in half! no $wtic chart..
did LB ever show up when i left?

Nic said...

No LB :(

McF - Doug Kass was on fast money tonight:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1500618765&play=1

AmenRa said...

Karen

Leave my salary alone. Now refresh the page :o)
Enjoy the weekend.

qqqqtrader said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
qqqqtrader said...

Weekly Scorecard

Indices
S&P 500 1,087.69 -4.23%
DJIA 10,193.39 -4.02%
NASDAQ 2,229.04 -5.02%
Russell 2000 649.29 -6.44%
Wilshire 5000 11,227.32 -4.52%
Russell 1000 Growth 484.44 -4.18%
Russell 1000 Value 560.89 -4.46%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 669.65 -3.43%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 837.87 -5.63%
Morgan Stanley Technology 545.05 -3.64%
Transports 4,241.59 -5.48%
Utilities 361.79 -4.75%
MSCI Emerging Markets 37.13 -6.63%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 980.07 -.75%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 855.88 -.22%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 843.21 +2.11%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +82,319 -6.03%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -399 -547
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 54.0 +3.85%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +67,361 --27.49%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,387,907 -5.60%
Total Put/Call 1.33 +19.82%
OEX Put/Call .89 -27.05%
ISE Sentiment 64.0 -21.95%
NYSE Arms .34 -89.03%
Volatility(VIX) 40.10 +28.36%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 15.74 +15.57%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,726.50 -4.53%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.844 Trillion -1.2%
AAII % Bulls 41.30 +12.84%
AAII % Bears 33.70 -7.92%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 251.42 -2.76%
Crude Oil 70.04 -7.56%
Reformulated Gasoline 196.12 -8.24%
Natural Gas 4.03 -7.03%
Heating Oil 189.67 -8.28%
Gold 1,176.10 -4.60%
Bloomberg Base Metals 190.62 -5.20%
Copper 306.10 -2.05%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 370.67 USD/Ton -.71%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,291 Yuan/Ton -3.31%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 300.23 +1.81%

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 127.30 -3.56%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index +19.40 +5.1 points
Fed Fund Futures imply 90.0% chance of no change, 10.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/23
US Dollar Index 85.37 -.84%
Yield Curve 247.0 -20 basis points
10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.24% -22 basis points
Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.333 Trillion +.64%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.47 +2.77%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 126.17 +10.51%
10-Year TIPS Spread 1.96% -27 basis points
TED Spread 34.0 +4 basis points
N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 123.49 +13.97%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 141.35 +9.37%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 304.34 +21.20%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 304.0 +50 basis points
M1 Money Supply $1.700 Trillion -2.02%
Business Loans 607.50 -.65%
4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 453,500 +.7%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.6% unch.
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.84% -9 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 569.20 -1.54%
ABC Consumer Confidence -44 +3 points
Weekly Retail Sales +3.1% -20 basis points
Nationwide Gas $2.83/gallon -.05/gallon
U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 36.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 3,844 -2.16%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 50.0 -4.76%
Rail Freight Carloads 218,206 +4.50%
Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 79.40 -4.62%

Best Performing Style
Mid-Cap Growth -3.97%

Worst Performing Style
Small-Cap Value -6.99%

Leading Sectors
Education +3.41%
Semis -.93%
Telecom -2.38%
Restaurants -2.93%
Wireless -3.65%

Lagging Sectors
Alternative Energy -7.99%
Steel -8.62%
Gaming -8.68%
Coal -10.15%
Gold -10.61%

CV said...

NEW THREAD

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.