Weekend Edition (Happy New Year) Bowl Picks & NFL Picks

CV's PICKS - 2010 YTD Totals (all "ATS" [against the spread - wager totals include the vig paid])
2010 NCAA Picks (aggregate): 65-43-4
2010 NCAA (unit picks differential): +3
NCAA 2010 Regular Season Wager Total: (+$35)* (cv wins the "kissing your sister" trophy)

- results updated thru Tostitos Fiesta Bowl -

NCAA 2010 Bowl Picks (aggregate): 15 - 12 - 1
CV's NCAA 2010 Bowl Season (CV's Pick) - Results:

New Mexico Bowl (UTEP) - Correct (+$100)
Humanitarian Bowl (N. Illinois) - Correct (+$100)
New Orleans Bowl (Troy) - Correct (+$100)
St. Petersburg Bowl (Louisville) - Push (0)
Las Vegas Bowl (Boise State) - Correct (+100)
Pointsettia Bowl (SDSU) - Correct (+100)
Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii) - Incorrect (-$110)
Little Caesars Bowl (FIU) - Correct (+100)
Advocare V100 Independence Bowl (Air Force) - Correct (+$100)
Champs Sports Bowl (West Virginia) - Incorrect (-$220)
Insight Bowl (Missouri) - Incorrect (-$110)
Military Bowl (Maryland) - Correct (+$100)
Texas Bowl (Baylor) - Incorrect (-$110)
Alamo Bowl (Over) - Incorrect (-$110)
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl (Army) - Correct (+$100)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl (Syracuse) - Correct (+$100)
Franklin American City Music Bowl (UNC) - Correct (+$300)
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl (Nebraska) - Incorrect (-$110)
Meineke Car Care Bowl (USF) - Correct (+$200)
 Hyundai Sun Bowl (Notre Dame) - Correct (+$100)
Autozone Liberty Bowl (Georgia) - Incorrect (-$220)
Chick-fil-A Bowl (South Carolina) - Incorrect (-$110)
---New Years Day---
Ticket City Bowl (Texas Tech) - Incorrect (-$110)
Capital One Bowl (Michigan State) - Incorrect (-$110)
Outback Bowl (Penn St.) - Incorrect (-$110)
Gator Bowl (OVER) - Correct (+100)
Rose Bowl (Wisconsin +3) - Correct - (+$100)
Fiesta Bowl (Connecticut) - Incorrect (-$110)Total (incl. paid vig): (+$260)

2010 NFL Picks (aggregate): 120-93-5
2010 NFL (unit picks differential): +36
NFL 2010 Wager Total: (+3,700)

Exotic Wagers (parlays & teasers): (+30)*

*I will do a SEPARATE (Week 17) NFL thread tomorrow...
New Years Day Bowls... (Today - I'm only focusing on NYD Bowls - I'll put up picks for Next Weeks agenda as they come on line)...

Saturday, January 1st
Ticket City Bowl - DALLAS, TX
aka the "I wonder if this 'city' is offering tax free Muni's" Bowl

 Northwestern Wildcats (54%) vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders(46%) (12:00 EST)
Line: Texas Tech by 9

The bad news with this timeslot is that many are either still sleeping, or only watching it with a bad hangover if they overdid the revelry the night before... The good news is [repeat above]... Actually, both teams were fun to watch in 2010, but NW is without its QB who was lost for the season in late regular season action... 9 points is a lot to give up, but I'll go with TTU for (1 unit)...

Saturday, January 1st
Outback Bowl - TAMPA, FL
aka the "Bloomin Onion" Bowl

Florida Gators(42%) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions(58%) (1:00 EST)
Line: Florida by 7

CV has been telling you all year to just "go the other way" whenever I make a call on Penn State... So here, I'm taking PSU and the points (which means you'd better be doing the Gator "chomp"... Speaking of "chomping", rumor has it that Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (via Notre Dame, via, New England Patriots), has accepted the OC job at Florida next year... That's a very curious transition (akin to Hank Paulson moving from Goldman Sachs to Treasury)... Or, perhaps it's as simple as they weren't feeding him enough in KC... (1 unit)...

Saturday, January 1st
Capital One Bowl - ORLANDO, FL
aka the "Where's your Wallet" Bowl

 Alabama Crimson Tide(48%) vs. Michigan State Spartans(52%) (1:00)
Line: Alabama by 9.5

Like the Outback Bowl... This one will feature the SEC vs. the Big 10... Most are favoring the Crimson Tide here, but I gotta say, the SEC has looked pretty weak in bowls thus far this year (South Carolina lost to ACC/Florida State & Tennessee lost to ACC/North Carolina)... These conferences do have a little pride when it comes to bragging rights (& recruiting), so I don't expect the SEC to just lay down here...

OTOH, Michigan State is a good football team so I believe they can be competitive... SEC will have two more shots against the Big 10 in the Gator Bowl & Sugar Bowl... So I'm taking SPARTY here for (1 unit)...

Saturday, January 1st
Progressive Gator Bowl - JACKSONVILLE, FL
aka the "you get to see that Progressive chick "FLO" on every timeout" Bowl

(gotta "love" the battle of the logos here - Why isn't "M&M's" sponsoring this? or Campbells soup)?
 Mississippi State Bulldogs (59%) vs. Michigan Wolverines(41%) (1:30 EST)
Line: MSU by 3.5/ (O/U = 57)

Come to think of it, yesterday there was the "Chick Fil-A" Bowl... This one, sponsored by Progressive Insurance, might as well be called the "Chick Fil-O" Bowl... She must be a multi-millionaire by now... I hope she's being smart about it, JBingTFD, & "inWesting" all her riches into the stock market!...

Here we have what appears to be a dogfight (Bulldogs vs. Wolverines)... Technically, though, a Wolverine is just a giant weasel... It all goes back to the battle of Toledo... I'm sure you were "asleep" when you learned about that in high school US history... The answer was "B" on multiple choice question #27 on your final exam that you cheated on when you copied the response off your neighbors paper... Ah yes! NOW you may recall...

I'm not going to take sides here... I'm just going with the OVER 57 (in points) for (1 unit)... ("57" being the number of states that Barack Obama was born in, has visited)...

Saturday, January 1st
The Rose Bowl Game (Presented by VIZIO) - Pasadena, CA
aka "The Grandaddy of them all"

 Wisconsin Badgers vs. TCU Horned Frogs (5:00 EST)
Line: TCU by 3

The more I think about it... The NCAA needs to hire CV to get things straight with who sponsors which Bowl game... I mean, think of the possibilities... They need "Go-Daddy.com" as sponsor here"...

"The "Go-Daddy" of them all"

The good thing about being the Rose Bowl, is that it would be the very last one on the chopping block if & when cutbacks ever need toi be made as Obama drives out economy into the toilet... But I'm sure the Rose Bowl would survive... Obama could easily order a bailout, and the game would go on in honor of his "largesse" dipping into the US taxpayers pockets... In that case... It could be...

"The Mack Daddy of them all"

& Since Obama seems to want his name on everything, and since he favors a BCS "playoff" system... Another BCS game, the Sugar Bowl", could be named in his honor and become...

"The Sugar Daddy of them all"

I've been saying "take TCU" all year long... By all measure, I should continue that run, but I'm going to take Wisconsin here (and hope TCU doesn't pound them with tough defense)... "BADGERS... We don't need no stinkin' Badgers"... But I'll take them for (1 unit)... 

Saturday, January 1
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - GLENDALE, AZ.
aka "The Tostitos Fiesta Bowl"

 University of Connecticut Huskies vs. Oklahoma Sooners (8:30 EST)
Line: Oklahoma by 16.5

Ironically, this one has the appropriate sponsor & location... Because if you've managed to make it through the marathon of bowl games the past couple of days, and today... YOU'RE TOAST!... Appropriately, this is also played at the "BIG TOASTER" The University of Phoenix (Fighting Phonecians) Ballpark...

I'm just going to go with UConn here against the odds... This past week, their women's basketball team had it's record setting streak get snapped on a FIBO number... Perhaps that's a "bad" omen, but I don't know... Oklahoma sometimes "chokes it up" in these lopsided endeavors... Plus, the soon to be dismantled Big 12 conference, save for OSU, has stunk it up in a couple of bowl games thus far... Or, if you wanted a little "socio-economics" behind your decision... Basically "UConn" (you con)... is going against "OU" (owe you)... Since, the rip off artists (the bankers) still seem to have the upper hand in our corrupt system, I have to side with UCONN for (1 unit)... 


NFL Week 17 Picks

I'm going to do this with less fanfare than my usual weekly effort... I've been really fighting the flu the past two days, and just don't have the energy...

The good news about having the flu at this time of year is it's yet another reason to just sit back and watch football...

The NFL finally did something right last year by deciding on revamping the divisional matchups so that as many as possible of these Week 17 match-ups actually mean something... The trouble is, it was almost easier to handicap teams before (because the public would just lay ridiculous point spreads no matter what, and Vegas would clean up)...

Now it's a little tougher because, for instance... The Bears are already in the playoffs with a 1st round BYE, but the last thing they want to do is go in to the post season with a loss to their arch rivals (Packers)... By snuffing out the Packers here, they could deny the Packers a playoff spot... OTOH, do you do that at the risk of injuring some players, or not giving some players the chance to rest & heal a little...

That's the dilemma...

So I'm going to make a slate of picks here based solely on those types of reasoning... I'm also going to use some of the "must win" type of logic, to move around some point spreads with some exotic bets into some favorable scenarios...

- 3 TEAM TEASERS (move the spread 10 points) -

TITANS (+19.5) + PACKERS (+.05) + SAINTS (+3) - 5 units
COLTS (+0.5) + PACKERS (+0.5) + SAINTS (+3) - 5 units
BROWNS (+15.5) + VIKINGS (+13.5) + TEXANS (+7) - 1 unit


 Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5

The Chiefs are already in with a home game in the playoffs (at home)... They will have to face, most likely, either the Ravens, or the Jets (Jets, as we speak)... But it could also be the Steelers... I'm thinking, if I'm the Chiefs, I'd like to get the #3 seed (which would probably mean the Jets)... So there's incentive to win this game... The Raiders may be playing for Tom Cable's job... Kansac City is #1 team in the NFL in rushing, so that should play well here... I'll take the CHIEFS for (1 unit)...

 Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (1:00 EST)
Line: Patriots by 5.5

New England has already wrapped up home field advantage thru the playoffs... They're actually one of the teams that don't seem to lay down on these final week games... But you also have to think they'll come out with a vanilla type package... Whichever team comes to meet them in Foxboro in two weeks (probably either Ravens, or Colts), they don't want to give away any wrinkles... The Houston Texans beat the Patriots on the last game of the season last year (but Houston was playing for a playoff spot, and were the home team)... Miami's only motivation here would be to beat the division rivals that embarassed them (mostly on special teams) on Sunday Night Football earlier in the year... I'll go with the PATRIOTS for (0 units)...

 Tennessee Flaming Thumbtacks at Indianapolis Colts
Line: Colts by 9.5

The Colts must win here to get into the postseason (unless the Jags lose)... Still, teams that find themselves in "must win" games usually do so for a reason... They suck... Indy is a team that tends to "get it done" though, so I imagine that Peyton Manning will pull a rabbit out of the hat and win the game... I'm doubtful that they'll cover the spread though against a Titans team that this is their Superbowl... TITANS for (3 units)...

 Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (1:00 EST)
Line: Texans by 3

Ditto what I said about the Indy game... The Jags are "must win" here... But they were "must win" against the Colts, and "need to win" last week against the Redskins... Result? Two losses... Houston has been stinking up the joint all season... CV has been saying all year that the Jaguars were pretenders... They proved me WRONG most of the year, but have finally shown their colors... Speaking of "colors" (Tom Jackson - of ESPN) is a damn racist... I don't know what happened because he used to be the guy I likes best on that set... But he has practically turned into a militant... Anyway, the Texans were Tom Jacksons pre-season pick to go to the Superbowl... Good pick Tom!... (CV's picks were the Ravens & the Packers)... I'm kind of still alive there...

Anyway... Imagine if you're Jacksonville right now, and you find yourself 3 point dogs to a team that's been stinking up the joint... AND the public is supporting the Texans to the tune of 78%! That's some disrespect!... It's probably because MOJO & Garrard are "out" for this game... Anyway, despite MOJO's quiet good season, the Jags don't deserve to be in the playoffs... I'll take the TEXANS for (0 units)...

 Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST)
Line: Steelers by 5.5

Speaking of the race card... You need to see the interview (can't remember if it was yahoo or espn) of Jim Brown being a crybaby because Mike Holmgren was letting "his services" go...


I don't really know what "his services" were in the first place, but I'll let that go... Jim Brown was a great ball player who did his job and left the game on his own terms... But since his retirement, it's no secret that Brown has often cultivated his image as a "us versus them" type figurehead...

You know... OJ Simpson was a great ball player too... Not that I'm putting Juice & Brown (ironic huh?) in the exact same category, but I'm only using it as an illustration of how someone can "cease" to be something of value to a franchize... Hell, the Cleveland Browns aren't even the Cleveland Browns anymore... The franchize that Jim Brown played for moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens...

Why don't you try attending a Browns "ceremony" that you're to be honored for instead of being a militant... You snub Holmgren & management (earlier in the year) , then wheat's he supposed to do? Keep you around the locker room so you can tell all the players what a shitty organization it is?

The same situation is going on right now in Washington with the Shanahans & Donovan McNabb... McNabb & Brown are cases of individuals that feel like they're "owed" something because of what they did in the past...

Great... So you didn't snort coke, play with guns, or beat your wife or girlfriend (not sure about that last one with JB), so you need to be offered a job 'emeritus' for the rest of your life...

If you murdered and tortured dogs, that's OK too, just do a couple of months in the kennel, come back, and you'll be a poster boy...

Is that how it's going to happen with Obama? (The "Dog Killer pardoner in Chief")?... When the country has to move on, are we going to have to create a new position of POTUS 'emeritus' to honor all the great books that you wrote, and prizes you won (for doing nothing)?... Well, one thing is for sure... If it DOESN'T happen, Tom Jackson will likely to be the first one to remind you...

Anyway (rant off)... I like the Browns here... Why were the RAVENS 3 point favorites and the STEELERS are 5.5?... Not even sure if Troy Polamalu is playing, but I still like the BROWNS to cover for (2 units)...

 Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 EST)
Line: Ravens by 9.5

If the Ravens win, and the Steelers lose, then the Ravens will get a #2 seed and a first round bye... So there's something to play for... But you can't pin your hopes on what another team will do...

For some reason, also, Cincinnati always seems to have the Ravens number... They beat them early in the season in one of the worst games the Ravens played all year... I wouldn't be counting on the Ravens to cover this hefty line after the Bengals showed some interest in beating the Chargers last week... Maybe Marcin Lewis will be auditioning for his old job back here as defensive coordinator for the Ravens... BENGALS for (0 units)...

 Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (1:00 EST)
Line: Lions by 3.5

The Lions have finally gotten several monkeys off their back and are playing great football... But it's one thing to be road dogs, and another to cover more than a field goal against a division rival... The Vikings finally showed some class in beating the Dog Killers last week... Joe Webb (QB) really looks promising... I already like him better than Michael Vick for more than the obvious reasons...

The public is pretty undecided on this game, and so am I... When in doubt, take the points, so I'll go with the VIKINGS for (1 unit)...

 Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Dog Killers (1:00 EST)
Line: Dog Killers by 2.5

I'm not sure the status of Dog Killer Vick...The Eagles have pretty much wrapped up 3rd seed in the NFC
(which probably means they'll host the Packers)... If you're wondering how this all might play out (and the motivation, there's a cool gadget at YAHOO that you can plug in various results of todays games and generate the playoff picture... Here was one I did...

I still think the Cowboys are playing for some jobs next year, so I'll take the COWBOYS for (0 units)...

 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (1:00 EST)
Line: Jets by 1.5

Vegas is trying to fool the public into taking the Jets... The Jets are most likely to be the "6th seed", meaning they have little to play for here... Stuff doesn't really change for them materially unless the Steelers lose (dropping them into a #3 seed and changing the variable on whether the Jets visit  Pittsburgh, Indy, or KC...

This is a 1PM game so they really don't have any control... I'm sure they don't want to lose their last game of the season, but since they're not in any danger, they may let this one slip... I'll take the BILLS for (0 units)

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST)
Line: Falcons by 14

 The Falcons could be down after an emotional loss last week... CV has been "miserable" in trying to buy the Panthers on the cheap without any success... I've also been miserable in trying too hard to fade the Falcons (except last week where I had the Saints)... I'll pass on this and take the FALCONS for (0 units)...

 Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 7

The Saints are on fire right now... It's funny that depending on what happens today, they "could" conceivably wind up as the #1 seed in the NFC (Falcons & Bears lose, Saints win)... Odds are long though that the Falcons will lose at home to the Panthers... So the Saints will most likely end up as #5, & going to either St. Louis or Seattle next week...

Little does the public realize how banged up the Bucs are on defense the past couple of games... They played well all season, but just couldn't get it to the line... I think the Saints are just hitting their stride... I'll take the SAINTS here for (3 units)...

(I'll get to the rest of the games later in the morning - more flu fighting)LATE GAMES

 New York Giants at Washington Redskins (4:15 EST)
Line: Giants by 4
CV leaning to zero unit play on REDSKINS

 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (4:15 EST)
Line: Packers by 9.5
CV leaning to small unit play on PACKERS

 Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (4:15 EST)
Line: 49ers by 6
CV leaning to zero unit play on CARDINALS

 San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (4:15 EST)
Line: Chargers by 3.5
CV leaning to small unit play on BRONCOS


 St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (8:20 EST)
Line: Rams by 3
CV leaning to small unit play on RAMS

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Let the rematch begin anew...

Creditcane™: 2010 was the worst hangover in a long time. 2011 needs to have the cure.

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1247.08). QE2infinity.

Bearish long day (morning star went supernova). Midpoint below EMA(10). Almost tested the 23.6% retrace (78.72). Now below SMA(89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.83).

Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 15.45). May look to escape the "no fear" zone. Avoided a monthly 3LB reversal.

Bullish long day. Still above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Still above 14.6% retrace (1392.69). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1340.30). Must have the precious.

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above its 38.2% retrace at 1.3121. Back above SMA(21) and SMA(144). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3001). Closed above weekly 3LB reversal price.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing the Gann 4x1. Below all SMA's except 144 & 233. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.47).

Spinning top day (confirmation of bearish harami even though the long day was a lower close?). The 0.0% fibo retrace at 35.66 has held. Above all SMA's. Back below its 14.6% retrace (33.86). Midpoint below EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.36).

Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 328.11). Back above trendline of current move.

Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above SMA(21). Shot above its 38.2% retrace (12.20). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 11.52).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 14.6% retrace (15.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.81). Closed above its monthly 3LB reversal price.

Bullish long day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Closed above the 85.4% retrace at 90.99. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 89.75).


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