AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I am a member of the US House of Representatives and Senate.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1335.54). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Destroyed the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 76.04).



VIX
Bullish engulfing day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 16.90). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1452.50). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day (didn't confirm bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above 1.4346 (the 76.4% retrace). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4207).



JNK
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.21).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (failed to confirm hanging man). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed 76.4% retrace (36.02). Held the upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.91).



WTI
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 108.47).




SILVER
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.19).



EEM
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 48.67).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

LB's Bond Report

No detailed Bond Report from me today, but a nice picture, and we will let Mish do the talking;

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/yield-curve-widens-as-long-term-rates.html

If you look carefully at these yield curve time series you can see it is soon getting close to buying time again for 5s and 10s, and we may be there already in 30s.

As Matt points out above, buying HY would be a poor move here. This is a very good time to know what you own and how it will respond to higher rates/inflation or lower rates and slower growth (the latter being my forecast for Q3/4 if not sooner.

Obviously there are those who believe in apocalyptic breakouts in Treasury yield, but we are not among them. The US debt means that such a situation is untenable.

Morning Corner 4.8.11

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 121.750
rev= 118.500; mid= 120.125



Proof that QE2 raises rates as the 30 Yr Bond is now testing its weekly 3LB reversal price. The government may shut down but the long bond will continue to sell off.




CSCO (weekly info)
new low 17.02
trend=down
rev= 18.40; mid= 17.71




Will Cisco make a comeback? It's showing a little strength by getting above the weekly 3LB mid. Until it's above the monthly 3LB mid it's still weak. This week is forming a bullish engulfing and could indicate a turnaround with a confirmation. But in four weeks we'll see if there is another long bearish candle after earnings. That's when will know if this is a head fake.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: My European vacation started today.

SPX
Doji day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes changes (reversal is 1328.26). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."



DXY
Graveyard doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.33).



VIX
Spinning top day again. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.71). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1439.90). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Currently above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8522).




JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now above all SMA's. Still above its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 40.21).



10YR YIELD
Hanging man day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 61.8% retrace (35.14). Held the upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.48).



DJ TRANS AVG
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5276.75).




CRB
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Still above the 14.6% retrace (356.09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 362.18).



WTI
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 107.94).




SILVER
Hanging man day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.50).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

Bond Report:

Risk, on, a bit. JNK up.
Belly of the curve, ok.
Long end, sold off, a bit.

MUB rallied. MBB didn't.

Got me some of that 4.62% action.
Expecting we will see higher yields at next week's auctions.

Over and out.

Morning Corner 4.7.11

DAX (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 6664.40
rev= 7426.81; mid= 7045.61


Germany seems to be pulling a US move by ignoring world events in their markets. It won't last.
Now that Portugal is headed to the ECB with hat in hand Germany has a hard choice to make. Continued support of the currency or let it fail.



2s30s Spread (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
rev= 3.53; mid= 3.77



No fear here…yet. It has rejected its 38.2% retrace and is quickly working its way back to its 23.6% retrace. It'll have to get above the weekly 3LB mid first. But as long as the 30 year mortgage stays under 5% all is peaceful.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: I stopped by Portugal today. Bought tickets for Spain.

SPX
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1328.26). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it." Daily 3LB range small enough for a quick daily reversal.



DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.33).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.71). Still in the "no fear" zone.




GOLD
Bullish short day (not a hanging man - too much hair). Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1439.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Now above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above 61.8% retrace (35.14). Held the upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.44).



WTI
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 106.72).



SILVER
Bullish short day (hanging man freed). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.89).



COPPER
Bullish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Back above SMA(21,89). No tests of 0.0% retrace (4.667). Back above 23.6% retrace (4.327). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 4.137).



RBOB Gasoline
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (3.21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.11).




YEN
Bearish short day. Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 38.2% retrace (1.18459). New low on daily 3LB (reversal now 1.20330). Carry trade full steam ahead?



LUMBER
Doji day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 297.00). Housing recovery pffft!!!


AT's 1.618 Cents on May Silver:

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 4.6.11

Today was that "risk-on steepener" that we have seen so many times in between POMOs and the next long bond auction. Punters were dumping govies and the long end was hit hard, almost reaching LB's magic limit of 4.60% on the 30y.

We are not doing much in this market. There isn't a lot of value. HY spreads are too tight, and govie yields are not compelling. Munis and mortgages have been moribund of late.

Corpies: LQD -0.32%; AGG -0.30%; JNK 0.25%; HYG 0.22%
Govies: TLT -1.50%; IEI -0.21%; TIP -0.54%
Munis: IQI -0.33%; MUB -0.40%
Mortgages: MBB -0.08%
Specialty: ZROZ -1.99%; TBT 2.97%; EMB 0.24%

This week we reduced JNK to 7% and added some IEI. Total fixed income is now 16%. We all know where the action is, it is in commodities, FX and equities for now. But wait until May...

---

Morning Corner 4.6.11

90 Day Treasury (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 0.070
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130


China is raising rates. The ECB may raise rates. But the Fed won't be doing a damn thing according to what's going on with the 90 Day Treasury.



3 Month vs Overnight Libor






Ok. Ok. I know I keep bringing this back up. But the spread is now increasing at a faster rate. Most know that overnight libor should be increasing but it's decreasing even faster now. How many of the banks that report are fudging their numbers? Esto no terminará bien.

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Not even a rebalancing could fully cause any damage.

SPX
Spinning top day again. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Above the 14.6% retrace (1319.09). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1319.44). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Don't question it. Just do it."



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held the 0.0% retrace (75.63) from 11/4/10. Below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 76.33).



VIX
Bearish short day (possible evening star confirmation). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.91). Still in the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Now above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1413.80). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above 1.3870 (the 61.8% retrace). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3988).



JNK
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above SMA(21,55,89). Closed back below its 50.0% retrace (40.42). Still below lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.52).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day (confirmed hammer). No test of 0.0% retrace at 37.44. Back above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Held the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.04).



DJ TRANS AVG
Bearish short day (possible evening star confirmation). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 5276.75).



WTI
Spinning top day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace. No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 105.39).




SILVER
Hanging man day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace. Holding upper trend line. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 37.51).



EEM
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.25).

AT's Silver "Addition":