Morning Audibles 5.17.10 - "There's No Money Left"

‘There’s No Money Left,’ U.K. Minister Learns From Predecessor
(so you have that going for you)



May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Arriving for work at the U.K. Treasury last week, the incoming chief secretary, David Laws, found a note from his predecessor, Liam Byrne, offering advice on the job.

According to Laws, it read: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you there’s no money left.”

“Which was honest,” Laws, whose position is the No. 2 in the Treasury after the chancellor of the exchequer, told a press conference in London today. “But slightly less than I was expecting.”

The note underscores the task facing Britain’s coalition government as it seeks to reconcile demand for improved health and education services with promises to reduce the largest budget deficit since World War II.

It was also in the tradition of Reginald Maudling, Conservative chancellor of the exchequer from 1962 to 1964. Leaving his residence after election defeat, he was reported by James Callaghan, his successor, to have remarked, “Sorry, old cock, to leave it in this shape.”

Byrne didn’t respond to requests for comment.



Here - I found a nickel. If I can find another one, you'll have two (so you can rub them together). If they're "wooden", you can start yourself a fire and roast some weenies...



With your trusty dog by your side!


BIG ASS WEDGE


---
(reprint of Andy T - 5/16/10)


Good Evening Capitalists,
There's not much change to the S&P and DXY counts, so I decided to take some time on the Gold model. It seems to be very "hot" right now and worthy of some focus. My last large report (Dec. 20th) on the topic noted that $1,026 was an important level to hold--Bears had no case for a major peak until that level was taken out. Alas, it was never violated, with Gold printing a low of $1045 on February 5th.
One of the main reasons I haven't published anything on Gold in awhile was due to the complexity of the model. As the price action unfolded the last several months, I began to have more doubts on previous counts/theories. The work here represents my latest thoughts and a MAJOR recounting of the larger Gold model.
Bottom Line: This market is quite "frothy" right now with plenty momentum. Bullish sentiment is quite high and Speculators are positioned very long, thought not quite as long as they were into the December peak. This would be a perfect moment to "shake out" some of the new length. The medium term wave count also supports this idea as we seem to be in the final stages of triangle pattern--we're seeing the E-Wave of the triangle right now.
Gold Report 16 May 2010

227 comments:

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McFearless said...

I'm hoping for a decent bounce to short into this week. Looks like Asia crushed across the board.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Morning fellow capitalists, too. Long weekend, fierce storm took down one of the old oaks in the west yard. Chainsaw again, and will get the tree service to do the rest.

I noted that France, the CAC, is about 3500 here. This morning I compared a 20 year graph of the cac against the dow. Our equities have outperformed them 3/1 even with the difficulties we've had with our markets. I wonder with the larger government we are on the road to, if our equities markets will produce anemic returns like these in the future...

Hussman this morning is very quiet. Not ranting. Hmmm.....

McFearless said...

Hey if you are bored on your Monday, watch Jeff Zucker on CNBC this morning and see how many times you can count him saying incredible.

30?
40?

CV said...

@Bruce

aka "Leatherface"

on the chainsaw again hey Doc?

I hope you use more delicate instruments at the SALT MINE! :-)

CV said...

@McG

CNBC?

No thanks... (but tell me if MCC isn't wearing a bra, & the studio is cold - then I might watch with the sound muted)...

CV said...

Don't forget this is OPEX week people...

So there may be many "unexpected" swings that are hard to explain (even technically)...

BinT said...

I have decided my chainsaw(s) get a lot more work than my tractor....

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Nice post above. It is rare to find a shread of honesty in any government. I guess when you are heading out the door with your cushy pension (for now) you can afford to be honest. I am so glad I did not keep my shorts from Friday. Another bounce higher and I would have lost what little sanity I have left.

CV said...

@Bruce

Chainsaws come before tractors on the food chain...

But when CV goes fully AQUAPONIC, I'll have to rely less on either :-)

CV said...

@McF

How about this for a socioeconomic indicator?...

This morning on CBS, Felix Baumgartner (daredevil) announced that he's going to try and break the "freefall" level...

He's going to make an attempt to jump from 120,000 feet...

BinT said...

CV:

If I were at 120k feet, I would "attempt to jump" also....

CV said...

@BinT

Maybe we could send all the banksters up to 120,000... And tell them to...

"Jump you f-ers"

mcHAPPY said...

I signed up for BAM Investor something or other last September they were offering for free. I received an email this morning offering free access to their member site until June 1st. It is pretty interesting stuff in there. The only issue I have is there is no way to figure out what the criteria to their model is. It just says things like, "Bam model predicts..."

FYI the model was spot on for the events of last week and is calling for similar events for this week.

Here is a tweet via twitter:

Just finished running numbers on the BAM-VI (velocity indicator) and it says the $SPX is going to blow a few minds next week...

Thank you for following BAM. Get FREE instant access to the BAM subscriber dashboard through May 31st!! http://bit.ly/9UHule

SPX CRASH? email info@baminvestor.com with the word "GOLD" in the subject line for FREE access to our member site for the remainder of May

McFearless said...

C,

what kind of options you looking at lately? Generally puts still look really cheap all over the place imo. I'm looking at AMZN and a handful of others, some banks in the mix.

McFearless said...

you know over the weekend I had to laugh as I considered all the brew-haha over the "flash crash".

How many different people and companies have we now heard that are to "blame" for the crash? Odd how the list of names of "causers" continues to grow.

Maybe I'm just a little too simple minded but it really just sounds like herding to me.

But what do I know, nobody ever acts on emotion right?

McFearless said...

another observation:

I find it intersting that Taleb, of all people, has come to the conclusion of Hyperinflation.

Back Swan Indeed.

CV said...

@McF

I'm not really looking at any options just yet...

Actually, if I was, I'd prefer to wait for FEAR to really set in and just hedge with some CALLS...

Crazy as it sounds, I'm taking a look at FXE here (for some OOTM calls)...

CV said...

@McF

My only two "open" positions right now are SHORT SPY & SHORT BIDU...

SPY is about break even and BIDU is green (at the moment)

McFearless said...

"Crazy as it sounds, I'm taking a look at FXE here"

Brave perhaps but not crazy. that could be a lottery ticket, I'm only playing in-the-money's now.

BinT said...

Wow. What a change in the futures...

CV said...

@McF

CV has been "loading up" on building materials lately... (in real life - not stocks)...

lumber, pipes, valves, electrical wire, conduits, tanks, gasoline, propane, etc.

McFearless said...

C,

Unfortunately the only thing I loaded up on lately is Dairy Queen.

karen said...

Morning! Yeah, the futures.. I prepared myself for that.. hope AR did, too!

CV said...

@McF

Dairy Queen...

Yeah, the "manager" job that Obama skipped over and went straight to CEO of the USA...

CV said...

FWIW...

Considering 1151.85 is .0557 from 1219.8...

1141.88 (where we just hit is 61.8% from Fridays low back to 1151.85)...

1146-ish would be the 78.6... (and corresponds to Friday's OPEN)...

karen said...

it is quiet this morning.. thot everyone would be early to the table considering last night's futures..

McFearless said...

should be an interesting day. EWI had us moving up in a wave 2 of 3 into the close on Friday, we either completed that 2 wave this morning or it will have higher to go today/tomorrow and then we get a third wave down this week.

If I'm reading McHappy's post correctly this would match what BAM is saying.

We'll see, I thought Daneric nailed it over the weekend, if EWI calls for lower prices in the week ahead (which of course they did) we'll most likely be looking at a trip higher to the 1170-1180 range. lol.

72bat said...

br provides explanation of why fusion does not publish results

karen said...

GM wants more sub prime borrowers.

Free to Chose... to Default

CV said...

@McF

CV is still on the FIBO "days" meme...

Last Thursday (day 13) I called for a WAVE reversal (which we got)...

Naturally, I'm calling for the next "wave reversal" on day 21 (May 25th)... However, there might be some intermediate plays...

Tomorrow will be DAY 8 from the "flash crash"...

Basically, I'd be inclined to FADE whatever direction today takes us...

CV said...

Thing is... If we get a "ripper" down, it could carry us a long way...

karen said...

bat, upon reading that reply in comments, it suddenly dawned on me why i don't bother much with TBP any longer.. too effing wishy washy..

CV said...

Knowing these markets, they'll do NOTHING today and do a HANGING MAN tomorrow...

OPEX WEEK...

mcHAPPY said...

Those evil bond vigilantes! How dare they want a return of their capital or higher yield to reward their risk. Shameful!

CV said...

@karen

Re: TWSWB

Hard to "hide" political views (and suck up to clients at the same time)...

mcHAPPY said...

Bam is also calling for .9988 on EURUSD by June-July and 529 on SPX by end of year.

mcHAPPY said...

I forgot to type, they are usually well off on their timing (think $30 oil call April 2008) but they appear to usually end up correct. Of course a nay-sayer might argue a clock is correct 2 twice a day as well.

CV said...

@McHappy

Well if they're right, there's no point in sitting here trying to trade stocks...

Get yourself a shovel, dig yourself a bunker, and MOVE IN... NOW!

CV said...

"a clock is correct 2 twice a day as well."

So... "Cramer" is a clock then...

mcHAPPY said...

re: Cramer, yes. Essentially he is wrong 1438 times a day.

mcHAPPY said...

I need to stop glancing at oil. DAMN YOU OIL! DAMN YOU!

McFearless said...

@Nic,

if reading, how do you square the futures actions with the first (almost) hour or so in the cash this morning?

CV said...

FWIW

Considering 1110 is a .09 extension from 1219.8...

1138 is 161.8% of the distance from 1065 (flash crash low) and 1110...

$SPX hasn't closed a 10 minute candle over 1138 since dipping below it on Friday...

Might be a level to watch...

spoonman said...

Would love to see a push to ~1150 before we head down again. That's what I'm waiting for.

Nic said...

Nice post this morning CV
I am having a bit of a quiet week this week, but back to full power next week.
Hope everyone has a good one :)

Nic said...

McF
I hate the first hour of the morning ... I usually fade it or sit on my hands.
The empire manufacturing numbers were really ugly this morning, and the reaction tells me this market wants to rally today.
Crude however doesn't like the numbers.
We might have seen a bit of an exhaustion but temporary bottom in currencies last night.

Nic said...

CV - great video to add to your post:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00464/articleplayer_19025_464923a.swf?videoid=86031089001

McFearless said...

thanks Nic.

One of these weeks I will take off.

McFearless said...

ON 15 min chart, spoon's target of 1150 doesn't look so bad.

BinT said...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Saks Inc. said Monday it plans to close its Saks Fifth Avenue store in Charleston, S.C. by July 17. "The planned closing of our Charleston store is consistent with our focus of utilizing our resources in our most productive stores," said Steve Sadove, chairman and chief executive of Saks, said in a statement. About 60 employees affected by the closure will be offered transfer opportunities or receive severance packages.



....Just one store closing...not much in the way of news. But how long has this "dog" been open? Was it really losing money, or do they thinking we need real performance from every store and the future is going to get rough again. I mean, Charleston can't support Saks???

CV said...

@Nic

Thanks for that video... I might just put it in...

Then again... I might SAVE it... Why?

Well, think of it this way... It's not much different than Tim Geithner coming out and saying "There's no money"... But look at the markets... HO HUM...

The GIB just skips along its merry way...

CV said...

@BinT

On Wall St., it appears, they're STILL DOING "The Charleston"...

karen said...

"This is the perverse logic of meritocracy. Once a system grows sufficiently complex, it doesn’t matter how badly our best and brightest foul things up. Every crisis increases their authority, because they seem to be the only ones who understand the system well enough to fix it.

But their fixes tend to make the system even more complex and centralized, and more vulnerable to the next national-security surprise, the next natural disaster, the next economic crisis. Which is why, despite all the populist backlash and all the promises from Washington, this isn’t the end of the “too big to fail” era. It’s the beginning."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/opinion/17douthat.html?src=tptw

CV said...

@McF

Not to be argumentative...

But if we're going to 1150, why not then just FILL that 1152-1157 gap while they're at it...

Gaps above - Gaps below...

CV said...

@karen (10:37)

Well then it's nice to have the people who are in charge right now at the wheel...

...because they're so SMART!

McFearless said...

C,

I'm not saying it can't, however, if you are inclined to short at that level I'd start putting the orders in at 1150. I'd assume that gap would get closed quick and if the count is correct and that gap closure is part of a wave 2 rally in wave 3 then it will reverse hard to the downside after.

Mannwich said...

@karen: But I don't think it's just that. In many cases, they've become a truly insular (and large) group that "protects" each other politically in these large organizations. The inertia of this phenomenon is very strong. Therefore, real "accountability" (with actual repercussions, not just SAYING you're "accountable") falls by the wayside.

call me ahab said...

BR is a libertarian-

sheeeesh-

where you people been- he self identifies as a Libertarian-

and on my census form- that they tracked me down to have completed- I self identified as Hawaiian- because I was born there after all

so damn it I'm Hawaiian- lol

McFearless said...

I think the defense of BPvsRIGvsHAL tell us all we need to know about accountability....there isn't any, it's just someone else's fault.

and now I read on BR's that rules are in place so that costs associated with this mess should be limited?

UFB.

mcHAPPY said...

CV and Ben:

If we go down from here, wouldn't it most likely be the 5th down off 1173? Off 1126, the .382 retracement would be 1144 then if wave 1 equals wave 5 we would be looking at the end of intermediate 1 around 1115-1118. Then we would be looking at a .618 retracement for wave 2 to around 1157?

Am I off base here or is this a possibility as well?

CV said...

@McF

IMO - The only way they're going to make it through the summer (without causing a panic) is to create a BROAD TRADING RANGE...

The top 70 points of that (1220 - 1150) have already been drawn in crayon...

It's time to work on the bottom half of that... (1180 - 1150)... We've only seen the "flash crash" part of that thus far...(and been "lied to" that it was a FAT FINGER - oh, but the SEC has sworn off porn & is working feverishly on that at the moment)...

Then, the banks can do their silly little algo trading for the next two months and tell us all in July how now there are 2 STRAIGHT QUARTERS where everybody made money on every single trading day (a statistical phenomenon which exceeds the number of particles in the universe)... Then - they can bonus their workers off those trades...

Isn't "inWesting" fun?

Anyway - that's what it's going to be IMO... We go down and draw this BIG ASS wedge (it buys them a few months until the elections - as the TIP to that wedge will surely extend through November)...

McFearless said...

McHappy,

nope not off base, that count is still in play. I have some serious problems with counting that low on the flash crash as five waves down. We just need some more time for this to resolve.

In any event, this was why I'm looking for shorts because if you think that was five down to the flash crash lows then we could be setting up for a third wave here, or otoh, it could be your fifth.

Otoh, if you look at some of the international indexes, they appear much more like an ABC down that has found support and could be looking bullish now. DAX is an example, so we need to keep a really close eye on that.

McFearless said...

C,

If I'm reading the VIX chart correctly, there will be no "range" in the coming months, wild swings instead.

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

A break of 1173 would certainly bring the end of your 11:00 into play.

If the flash crash low was only the minor 3rd, the intermediate 2nd is going to go pretty close to 1173. That is going to cause a lot of more complacency that is already out there. That would most certainly set up a very devastating 3rd of 1. We'd be looking at around 900 on S&P.

What makes me think we could very well be in for a wave 2 correction and wave 5 was the flash low is the DXY. That is well past due for a break. Nothing like a ramp up to 1160 while Bucky takes a breather before the set up for 3 of 1.

CV said...

@McF

Wait until you see my BIG ASSED WEDGE... (I'll draw and publish it 4 you if you want)...

That'll conform to your VIX readings...

spoonman said...

Might not get there...(1150). Just what I'd like to see to get short(er).

CV said...

We're going to the 233SMA before May 25th (probably ON May 25th)...

Bank on it...

DL said...

Karen @ 9:31

One of these days, you're going to flash your real picture... no one will know.

McFearless said...

C,

I'm always up for a chart.

McHappy,

something about e-wave....2nd waves in either direction are a real bitch. A strong Intermediate 2 might help develop breadth divergence. That day of nearly 700 new highs still bothers me as well, when you line that up with the fact that we failed basically right into the 61.8% retracement something smells fishy there, or do we say it smells like oil now?

karen said...

DL, those are my real pictures !!

call me ahab said...

my man Ron Paul-

asked if this is just the beginning [of the end I presume]-

"Yes, this shouldn't surprise anybody, how long should we have been anticipating this? I have anticipated it since 1971, because the system that replaced Bretton Woods was an unviable system and this is proving the point, so this is the unwinding of the system and until we replace it with something you are going to continue to see this... You can't correct the problem of debt with creating more debt, expecting the Fed to endlessly create more money and credit. We are in for a lot more trouble as far as I can see."

Can we grow our way out of this debt?

"You'd have to cut taxes drastically and cut spending drastically. Politically you can't do that. People will resort to more spending, more deficits and more inflation of the money supply. If you see a GDP number go up, it is about equivalent to the money we have created - you don't have any more growth than the artificial stimulus of the money that we put in. We have not allowed the liquidation of debt, we have not allowed the elimination of the malinvestment still in the system."

CV said...

@McF

And MAGIC... A chart appears... There it is people - the BIG ASSED Wedge

That's what CV thinks SPX will draw...

So we hit the 233SMA (around 1080) on or before May 25th... Then we rally all the way back up to 1190-ish (by EOQ)...

That buys the market until next March (1140 - same damn level we hit this morning) before it all goes to hell...

Why March? Wait until the 2011 "budget" comes out...(& TAX TIME arrives)...

CV said...

Chart embedded after WEINER DOG race photo above...

appropriately...

McFearless said...

ahab,

11:11, one of the reasons when people say "this could go on longer than any of us expect" I always respond by saying:

It already has.

Our system has been on destruction road for the better part of 20 years.

Grow our way out of this debt? That's laughable. Our economic strength has been trending down for the better part of 40 years now and people want to talk about growing our way out of it?

the only thing outside the GIB that has robust growth in the US is SNAP, formerly known as food stamps.

too bad Ron Paul is never going to be president.

karen said...

Darn! my DTO post got eaten or disappeared..

call me ahab said...

and. . .yeah- Ron Paul- what the hell does he know-

sensible and adult behavior to reduce spending and cuts or elimination of worthless department- like the Dept of Eduction for example-

never happen-

you hear Arnold saying they are going to cut all these social services-

there is no way that is going to happen- it will be blocked-

my hope- California just jacks the taxes up- and see what happens-

reverse migration is my guess

karen said...

CV.. and if we break 1080?? You can redraw those lines.. they don't have enug hits to suit me.

call me ahab said...

b22-

basically we have been spending our wealth away for awhile-

not getting that back-

oh- I forgot- alternative energy and green jobs- what the hell is wrong with me- there's our future

McFearless said...

I'm kicking myself for not having found a better way to short China outside of FXP because that call has been just as money as the dollar bull call so far here in 2010.

CV said...

@karen

You can't think of these levels as DAILY or HOURLY...

When I say 1080-ish... I'm talking basically about the 233SMA (wherever that hits)...

I'd be cautious about "levels" here... I mean, 1042 would be the next FIBO extension from 1219.8... Could hit that in a panic and come swing wildly back...

(as soon as they figure out it was FAT FINGERED - lol)...

CV said...

@McF

BIDU :-)

call me ahab said...

. . .cold fusion-

that would be a money maker-

we better get more folks working on that-

and of course wind farms- better than gasoline from what I understand

McFearless said...

check this out:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/mea-culpa-from-morgan-stanley-on-rising.html

speaking of politico's, not sure if people caught this video:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=DqAxUf-D60E

CV said...

@ahab

"alternative energy & green jobs"

LMAO

Last night I was watching TV (and flipping back and forth between "Planet Green" and "Major League Baseball Tonight...

On PLANET GREEN there's this little old lady with solar panels on her roof and talking about how effin "green" she is (and the narrator fawning all over the idea and how THE WHOLE WORLD is starting to "make that investment", yada yada...

Then on MLB Tonight (a channel, which, probably only me and about 3 others in the whole world were watching, among THOUSANDS of channels)... The STUDIO of the channel was decorated with about 30 large screen TV's (all brightly lit & blaring along with lighting effects & graphics galore - created by DOZENS of high powered computers)...

Yeah, we're "going green" - lol

I'm SO TIRED of FOS people!

Al Gore's NEW DIGS
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/05/03/stunning-pictures-al-gores-new-9-million-mansion-media-totally-ignore

call me ahab said...

AL Gore- lol

they're all phony's dude

karen said...

CV, i read some comments on another link and several were saying that was NOT Gore's new house..

Nic said...

I am feeling better about Silver McF ...

CV said...

@karen

Whether it is or not...

He's still a phoney baloney...

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

That mish post I linked last night. I can't wait until the earnings come in less than expected and then the mad scramble by analysts to revise down. The bulls always forget the argument of P/E's based on future earnings are estimates that trail past performance.

karen said...

New $57 million "Palace" on market in OC.

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2010/05/17/57-million-palace-hits-o-c-market/65759/

CV said...

@karen

"a hilltop estate under construction for the past three years"

LOL - broke ground in 2007...

Some people just DESERVE to have their @sses handed to them (on a silver platter)...

CV said...

Like the "Johnny's" who bought the open this morning...

karen said...

you just know the $indu has to "retest" 10k.. and at least sub 1110 on the spx..

CV said...

@karen

Thus my DOW 10K hat...

BinT said...

CV said:

I'm SO TIRED of FOS people!

...CV, with this blog I hereby nominate you as the world's laxitive!

I am so proud the buttons are popping off my shirt!

McFearless said...

Nic,

me too, did you see DSI on silver Friday? 98% bulls!

When I see that I like to let out a big MOOOOOOO! at my desk.

Herding.

CV said...

@McF

Looks like A LOT have been eating at Dairy Queen...

See all the FAT FINGERS?

Mannwich said...

Wow, step away for a snack and the bottom falls out. What happened?

mcHAPPY said...

Bought a small FAS position @ $26.37

Mannwich said...

Testing.

mcHAPPY said...

I'm thinking intermediate 1 ended at 1115. We'll see.

CV said...

@Manny (12:08)

Here, let me try and dissect that move for you...

HFT Algo #1 hit a "sell" order and there weren't enough bids for it so the price dropped until HFT Algo #2 started calling those blocks...

CV said...

MON - lol

Mannwich said...

Thanks for the synopsis, CV. It must have been a quick move. I wasn't away that long

Mannwich said...

Testing. Blog monster, go away, please.

CV said...

Algos don't hang out at the snack machine...

BinT said...

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- No. 2 U.S. home-improvement retailer Lowe's Cos. said Monday that its first-quarter profit rose a better-than-expected 2.7% after demand for bigger-ticket items from refrigerators to riding mowers helped lead to its first comparable sales increase in 15 quarters.

Still, Lowe's shares fell 4.6%, leading retail stocks lower, after the company gave a forecast for second-quarter, its biggest sales period, that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Its larger rival Home Depot Inc. , which reports Tuesday, fell 2.2%.

"We're still somewhat cautious regarding the state of the consumer and the economy," said Chief Executive Robert Niblock on a conference call. "It will likely be 2011 before we see significant growth." Read commentary about Lowe's stimulus boost.

...Cassandras......

McFearless said...

C,

12:06, lol.

I snagged some June $46 puts on the Q's this morning. I'm up about 35% on those right now....haven't covered yet.

mcHAPPY said...

Positions taken in TNA. RUT is really acting as a good leading indicator for the S&P I think.

karen said...

(Bruce, thanks for posting the Lowe's commentary.)

Here is some MS commentary from Gerard Minack.. who is now clearly on the kool-aid.

"We haven’t written for two weeks, but we’ll admit it: a week ago we were regretting our long equity stance. Now, however, we’re sticking with it, although with less conviction. The reasons to stay long are unchanged: growth is solid, earnings good, rates are low and valuations appear unchallenging."

McFearless said...

oh lord karen, who is that guy?

what a load of crap.

BinT said...

Well I sold my 10 year treasury this morning, bought the 6th, that I had intended just to keep for income. It was up for nearly 18 months of interest at these rates...couldn't resist. If I were Ben's age, and sharp....

karen said...

Ben, i'll e-you the report.. he used to be so so good!

CV said...

ANECDOTES (on the Loews/HD theme)...

I probably go to Home Depot 2-3 times a week...

This weekend was VERY crowded (but it was the usual "spring flowers" crowd)...

I'm seeing a lot of SALES on lumber materials (typical stuff used to either build decks or "repair" decks)...

Basically tells me they're OVERSTOCKED with regards to home decking & patio...

That should tell you something about the housing market...

karen said...

On page 2 he writes:

Ultimately, western world deleveraging will end very badly, in our view. As we’ve discussed before, the options seem to be downturn/deflation, overt default or covert default (artificially pushing rates below nominal growth).

karen said...

No one is into my heart? Any guesses on where that is?

72bat said...

karen -
is that an avatar for your new top?

CV said...

@karen

"he used to be so so good!"

Leonard the Monkey & Dartboards also perform well during either a "bull market" or during a P2...

McFearless said...

hawaii?

call me ahab said...

Mort Zuckerman: The Crippling Price of Public Employee Unions

amen to that-

I am not anti-union- per se - but since public employees have been allowed to unionize- not really that long ago- who's benefited?

gotta roll out-

later

72bat said...

oh. now that i look at it full size....
someplace that ends in "ue"... lihue?

CV said...

@karen

Einhorn's house?

karen said...

Too funny! None of the above.. Where is QQQQ trader, he might know..

karen said...

This is how my friend replied to my commentary:

"I know. The poor guy was cautious the whole way up and now risks his rep trying to call one last wiggle. Rosenberg's Friday "Lunch" was succinct yet again...

Real consumer spending is up $200 billion over the past 16 months and everyone believes we have a sustainable recovery even though organic income is down almost $500 billion. Think about that for a second because once the stimulus wears off, and with a 10% deficit-to-GDP ratio and concerns surfacing everywhere about sovereign credit risks, there is little out there to support future growth in consumption."

CV said...

@karen

Ritz Carlton SF?

I-Man said...

Still on Staycation...

Still havent done any charts, but from a quick glance overall, kinda honing in on the 1076 level.

But thats a really rough analysis at this point.

Enjoy the show!

72bat said...

union square san francisco?

Nic said...

I-Man
I am partially stay-cationing too. I am a little burned out. I need to get out a bit more now that spring really has arrived.

CV said...

FWIW

Goldman Sachs is off more than 20% from it's recent high...

Last times that that happened were in '07... '08... and '00...

Mannwich said...

I wonder how cognos' GS holding is faring these days? No doubt he got out in time (in his own mind)...

Mannwich said...

China home sales down 50% in a month. Uh oh. Here we go.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-china-home-sales-down-50-month

Mannwich said...

Testing.

CV said...

@Manny

Hell, not even 'Buffets' warrants (on GS) look too good at this point...

karen said...

bat got it! Union Square.

McFearless said...

speaking of buffett, I've certainly been wondering lately what the mighty P3 is going to expose about St. Warren.

McFearless said...

I've never been to SF. I have a trip planned to LA in August.

DL said...

Bruce in Tennessee:

I notice that there is another “Bruce in Tennessee”, who works here:
http://www.crossvillemedicalgroup.com/

Perhaps you’ve met him.

BinT said...

Perhaps.

Nic said...

Is that our Bruce? He is so handsome ...

CV said...

@DL

Isn't that like, "550" in Roman numerals?

72bat said...

hmmm - perilous close to outing?

mcHAPPY said...

I do not think it is fair to expose others real identity here, if that is actually Bruce, unless someone agrees to it beforehand. There are a lot of crazies out there, maybe me, maybe you, definitely the anon, and maybe lurking.

Just my two cents.

If we get back to 1050 the next stop should be S&P 900's.

Ben I thought I saw a clear five waves down into 1115 on the 1 minute candles. Did you or anyone else?

BinT said...

Nic, nic, nic....

comments like that...

Nic said...

CV are you going to get a Dow 9000 hat or just use a pen and X it?

mcHAPPY said...

*Sorry, back to 1150.

CV said...

@Nic

... I'm going the pen and "x" it route...

Just like I did when I did the DOH! 10,000 thread...

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I never count squiggles on that short a time frame, not sure I'm much help there.

CV said...

@McF (1:43)

I'm glad you said that...

Trying to count waves on that short a timeframe would drive me nuts!

karen said...

no matter cuz we are not going back to 1150! forget it!

mcHAPPY said...

No worries Ben. If we break 1115 I'll sell. Unfortunately I'm going to have to let them ride because I have to go to the lawyer now. See you.

McFearless said...

McHappy,

good luck man. Just a word of advice, since you are new to the waves, trade the larger waves....I've watched really good wavers get chewed up on the short term charts. Remember when RP set the trading contest performance record he was making hundreds of trades a month, and he said he had just as many losers as winners. I've found that my skill set is better defined over many months/years, instead of days/weeks.

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Equities-are-overpriced-heres-hftn-1401995113.html?x=0

Equities are overpriced; here's how the crash will unfold

History and the numbers say we're due for a giant correction; here's how it's going to unfold.


....mine is back open....

McFearless said...

man oh man, I gain so much confidence when nearly every pundit keeps calling for a big "correction", I especially like when they call it a healthy correction.

DL said...

McF @ 1:59

"confidence"...?

To go long...?

McFearless said...

Uh, DL.

No.

While everyone is expecting a nice correction, I'm waiting for a crash, the largest in 300 years in fact.

McFearless said...

and dude, once again, nice trade on those mini's, I'm pretty sure you were short right?

DL said...

McF @ 2:06

Well, I did say to short the SPX at the 1170 level, and to cover within the next several days.

karen said...

This makes me roll my eyes:

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- U.S. homebuilders are growing more optimistic about their fortunes, with many expecting improved sales and customer traffic in coming months despite the end of homebuyer tax incentives.

The National Association of Home Builders said Monday its housing market index, which tracks industry confidence, rose three points this month to 22, the highest reading since August 2007.

Readings below 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The last time the index was above 50 was in April 2006.

Builders have seen sales and home orders improve this year thanks to low mortgage rates and two government tax credits -- $8,000 for new buyers and $6,500 for current owners who who buy and move into another property.

The government incentives helped gin up home sales this spring as many buyers raced to purchase a home in time to qualify before they expired at the end of April.

Without the tax credits, however, many experts anticipate home sales will slow in the second half of this year. In addition, high unemployment and tight mortgage lending continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines.

Regardless, homebuilders polled in the May survey were hopeful the sales momentum will hold.

"Builders are more comfortable that the market is truly beginning to recover, and that positive factors for buying a new home -- low interest rates, great selection, stabilizing prices and a recovering job market -- are taking the place of tax incentives to generate buyer demand," said David Crowe, the trade association's chief economist.

Sales of new homes rose 27 percent in March, the biggest monthly increase in 47 years. Still, new home sales are down 70 percent from their peak in July 2005.

The latest index of builder sentiment bodes well for May sales, however.

The reading for current sales conditions jumped three points to 23. The index measuring foot traffic from prospective buyers also rose three points to 16, and the index for sales expectations over the next six months improved three points to 28. The report reflects a survey of 416 residential builders nationwide.

karen said...

But Mish will set you straight if you are TFS..

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/homebuilder-confidence-at-2-12-year.html?

DL said...

Karen @ 2:24

It seems that the threshold for a stimulus to meet in order to elicit eye-rolling is quite low.

AmenRa said...

Karen

but its the NAHB who haven't been right ever.

Nic said...

Mr Topstep:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4rz8hANhgA

CV said...

@karen

"The government incentives helped gin up home sales this spring as many buyers raced to purchase a home in time to qualify before they expired at the end of April."

---

LOL - That's what the Administration discusses in Cabinet Meetings or economic meetings...

"Hey Larry, hey Timmy, hey Ben... Things seem to be slowing down out there... What can we do to GIN THINGS UP a bit"?

karen said...

Thanks for the Topstep.. i do <3 him a lot.

karen said...

What's going on now? more short covering? I am so sick of this seesawing..

karen said...

here's what we'll see tomorrow:

8:30 AM Housing Starts
8:30 AM Building Permits
8:30 AM PPI
8:30 AM Core PPI

DL said...

Karen @ 2:41

Yes, it would be so nice if the market would just move in a straight line.

Then we could all become rich.

Mannwich said...

Uncle Ben buying up stocks?

CV said...

It's kind of like playing the Illinois State Lottery...

If you keep playing "666" long enough, it's sure to come up eventually...

DL said...

Mannwich @ 2:47

No. Just the bad debts.

DL said...

CV

A similar strategy can be applied to the stock market.

Just keep doubling your bet. Eventually it'll pay off.

CV said...

BTW people...

Speaking of "games of chance"...

I told you all last Friday that I wasn't picking any Preakness winner...

But I DID say to watch out for the 'Nick Zito' horse, and if that horse performed well, then BET THAT HORSE in the Belmont Stakes...

Jackson Bend was that horse... He paid "show" money at Pimlico...

He's my EARLY FAVORITE to win the Belmont...

DL said...

I like to think that there's a difference between betting on horses, and betting on the direction of the S&P500.

(Maybe I'm wrong, however).

CV said...

@DL

Try to guess which one is "rigged"...

DL said...

BOTH!

Mannwich said...

Euro finding a (or THE) bottom here?

Mannwich said...

Testing.

72bat said...

so karen, we're not going back to 1150, but maybe close to it? if that means mchappy's 1150 then 900s, i'm all for it.

DL said...

Mannwich @ 3:02

There are many bottoms.

(Maybe I should become a philosopher).

Nic said...

I think so Manny, the bearish Euro sentiment is so extreme.

CV said...

So many bottoms... so little time...

McFearless said...

DL,

2:19, yes, that's what I'm saying, you've been trading those mini's like a champ lately.

mcHAPPY said...

@manny

Wow, china housing down 50%! That is not-so-good.

DL said...

McF @ 3:23

Sometimes I have a bit of conviction, but usually not.

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben 1:54

Good advice. Thanks.

karen said...

Nic, i'd like to see the bearish extreme commensurate to the eye-rolling bullish extreme of the spx at 1220.. or even commensurate to the bearish extreme of the dollar at 74 last winter. $xeu:$usd still not at extremes on long term chart and made a lower low last spring.

DL said...

McF @ 3:23

FWIW, I do plan to do some buying of ETF's if and when the SPX gets down to the 1100 level; and then to hold those positions until mid-July or so.

That's the plan right now, anyway.

karen said...

This summer could be like the summer of 2001, and next summer like that of 2002..

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

"So many bottoms... so little time... "

LOL - Slope of hope! SLOPE OF HOPE!

CV said...

@karen

I hope it's like the summer of 2001...

That's when I shot 71-71 at the US Amateur Qualifiers...

CV was golfin' his rock in those days baby!

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

re: extremes

Sh*tty thing is on the bottom that extreme only lasts a few days before the rockets are launched. We all know how long it can take for a top to play out.

DL said...

Karen @ 3:31

One way or another, the midterm election has got to affect the market.

Maybe a selloff in August-September; then, if the market likes the result, a rally from early November to mid January.

Nic said...

Karen
I agree with you about the dollar sentiment not being extreme, but the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have not come off at all and I think they may be next in line to bear the brunt of Bucky's rally rather than EUR

DL said...

McHappy @ 3:34

Submit your limit orders now.

mcHAPPY said...

Good advice, DL.

I'll be selling my long positions bought today tomorrow. They are about one third of what I have been doing on shorts. Once we hit high 1140's I'll be actively looking to short, unless something happens between now and then of course. I'll be going all in with stops at 1173. If it plays out as it is looking it is going to be scary and your advice will come in handy.

Nic said...

I think its probably a slope of hope for anyone who bought the new highs in Gold right now.

karen said...

Nic @ 3:35.. very, very true! I was just coming at it from the point that the dollar rally wasn't over..

karen said...

let's end green today and have a turnaround tuesday tomorrow..

Nic said...

K, we agree about that for sure

AmenRa said...

Ok now I'm going back to bed...arrgghhh

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