Perfect excuse to not do anything and watch football... (NFL Wildcard games Saturday & Sunday - BCS Championship Monday)... I'm getting a late start on this post so I'm going to be adding pieces to it all afternoon to recap all the various "calls" I've made throughout the season and what that all means...
The bottom line is (and this is why I do this on this blog)... Sports wagering is VERY MUCH like portfolio management... You have winners and losers... The idea is to stay ahead of the margin you pay for your losses (which is 10%)... So you basically have to be "right" on 53 out of every 100 chances to BREAK EVEN... It's not as easy as it sounds...
You must also consider that there is oftentimes a "herd" mentality in sports... The fans and public like to latch on to, and support "winners"... Nobody wants to be sitting in a rabid sports bar and be the only one rooting for the "other" team to cover a line... Not AT ALL unlike the "bull-bear" mentality on Wall St...
Vegas is basically the JPM or Goldman Sachs in this game... They will do everything in their power (psychological trickery), to get you to side with the wrong team, or get you to lay more points than you should which will favor them marginally, over time, when booking all bets...
I'm going to do more complete game writeups this afternoon... But I'm leaning on taking the points with the SEAHAWKS, JETS, & PACKERS, and laying the points with the RAVENS...
The amount of "units" is yet to be determined because I have to wait to see the final tally on where the public is coming down... As always, I'm not really betting pointspreads, I'm betting the publics reaction to the pointspread...
As always - in this thread you can talk about anything you want... I couldn't believe an article this morning that the US Justice Department is going after "private tweets" from a member of Icelandic Parliament...
Big Brother bitchez!
(CV is doing his part to help "Big Brother" by getting you all conditioned to just sit on your couches all day and enjoy the spectacle of BREAD & CIRCUSES)... Soon - I'll be moving into commentary on the daily soaps & talk shows... Or maybe I can get you all to hang on my every word when I marvel you with my tales of eating Surströmming on one of my many visits to Sweden... Bon apetit!
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NFC Wildcard
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (4:00 EST)
Line: Saints by 10
For those who lay double digit lines without thinking (in the regular season), understand that this is not the regular season... Playoffs mean "elimination" from contention to the losing side... Nobody is doing any "learning", ot "looking forward" to next weeks game... They've forgotton about what they did last week (and, perhaps all season)... It's important to understand that psychological mindset... One should also try to understand the pressure of being a favorite, or a "dog" in a playoff game... There is added pressure for a team who is "supposed" to win over a team that considers themselves just lucky to be there... Nowhere is this more evident in the Saints vs. the Seahawks... The Saints are defending Super Bowl Champions, and the seahawks are much maligned as the "7-9" team that backed into the playoffs because they happen to play in a week division...
Since the "wildcard" system has been in play, there has NEVER been a ROAD team laying double digits to an opponent... The most points ever laid were the Rams laying points (6) on the road to these same Saints in 2000... Ironically, the Saints won that game knocking the Rams out of contention...
Seahawk detractors will point out here that they have lost games by over 15 points 6 times this year (including a 34-19 loss to the Saints at the Superdome earlier in the year)...
I'd remind everyone that Matt Hasslebeck had his most passing yards of any game this season on that day, and that the score was 27-16 at halftime... The Saints were playing the week AFTER their bye week so were fully rested and prepared... They also had the services of Chris Ivory, and Marques Colston (both of which are out for this game)... The Saints, atre also down to 3rd string tight ends (which was a huge sorespot in their loss to Tampa Bay last week)... The Saints have backed into the playoffs losing 2 out of their past 3 games, and are without a solid tight end/running game package to "grind it out" against Seattle like they were able to do in the second half of the first game (while they were playing in the friendly confines of the superdome)...
I'm not trying to make a huge case for playing the Seahawks here, but if they manage to take care of the ball and not committ turnovers, I think they can stay in this game... I'll go with the SEAHAWKS for (2 units)...
AFC Wildcard
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (8:05 EST)
Line: Colts by 2.5
The Jets cone back to Lucas Oil Stadium in a re-match of last years AFC Championship game... Don't forget that the Jets jumped out to a lead (and were leading at halftime), until Peyton Manning opened up on them in the 2nd half...
I remember watching that game that the Jets were attacking Manning with blitz schemes the entire first half, but then went to simple zone coverages in the 2nd half... I reallt think that cost them the game... The "analysts" like to tell you that Manning is so smart, and he'll eventually figure out the blitz... Some of that is true, but it really takes a team that can "man-up" against receivers that are inferior route runners, and have reliable hands... That's the dynamic you have with the Jets (with Revis & Cromartie on the corners), coupled with the fact that, on this occasion, Mannings weapons are NOT named "Wayne", "Clark", "Harrison", or "Collie"... But instead, are named "Wayne", "Garcon", "White" & "Tamme"... Only "Wayne" has any big game experience...
I'm sure Manning will find a way to get these fellows the ball, but I'm guessing a few drops may occur as well... or worse, "tipped balls" (which, when you're talking about a Rex Ryan defense, often wind up as interceptions - not the fault of the QB, but of jittery WR's)...
Oftentimes, there's also something ELSE in a game (which never quite makes it into the betting lines)... Which is why the public simply automatically puts it's $$ on the arm of Peyton Manning to the tune of 70%...
This past week, a little 11 year old kid died of cancer that the Jets (and especially Mark Sanchez) had forged a bond with... Over the past month, Sanchez & this kid had basically become BFF's, texting back and forth, etc... The kid lost his battle this past week... Don't be surprised to see Sanchez come up with some kind of herculean performance... I don't like to go AGAINST that type of voodoo...
Maybe in the end, this game will come down to the sure foot of Adam Vinateiri, and the vanilla Colts will move on as they always seem to do... Maybe Manning will beat Rex Ryan again... But I'm going to side with the JETS for (1 unit) here...
SUNDAY NFL PLAYOFF GAMES
AFC Wildcard
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST)
Line: Ravens by 3
I am very thrilled that both of my picks came in yesterday (Seahawks & Jets)... NOT for the reason anyone might suspect (the winnings - which were both only mild unit plays)... I'd be "beating my chest" if they were 5 unit picks and/or "called" an upset (although for all intents & purposes - I was calling a Jets upset with a short line)... With the Seahawks - I was only calling for a "cover" (which pays just as much though if you're not on the Money Line)...
Anyway, aside from all that background, the real reason I was happy with yesterday is because Goldman Sachs, JPM, Vegas WON BOTH GAMES (at pretty decent spreads to the public)... When you're getting 65% - 70% of the money on one side, and that side loses and has to pay you the 10% vig... Then you're having a good day... Vegas had a good day yesterday...
That's why it's "easier" to be able to side with a team (Ravens), where more than 80% of the $$ is going their way... Believe it or not... I CALCULATED THAT POSSIBILITY yesterday (which is a big reason I ended up siding with the Jets & Seahawks)... Not that I was sure that either or BOTH were going to come in... Only that I KNEW that if the SAINTS, COLTS, RAVENS, & PACKERS all won & covered this weekend, Vegas would be shutting down)...
Ironically now... Vegas is "playing with the houses money"... lol
I've found over the passage of time that things tend to even themselves out (always with Vegas catching the vig)... And oftentimes, the book is closed and ledgers adjusted at the end of each week)... During the regular season, the Sunday Night Football & Monday Night Football games are the great equalizers (and sometimes the 4:00 games themselves)... But in the postseason, it all comes down to one or two shots... I don't know how or why, but vegas ALWAYS gets paid... What you have going this week is the fact that the BCS National Championship is on Monday Night... That will be a heavily wagered upon event... 65% of the money is on the auburn Tigers laying points (and the SEC is 5-1 in Bowls)... You can bet that Vegas is a HUGE FAN of the Oregon Ducks...
But a "scenario" needs to be created in order for the Ducks to be a MUST WIN... That scenario took a little dent yesterday when the public paid Vegas on both the Saints & Colts folding up... The "sheeple" (just like on Wall Street), need to be lured back to the betting window...
I'm hoping the way that turns out is that BOTH the Ravens & Packers win and cover today... BOTH THESE teams were my "preseason picks" to go to the Superbowl and represent their conferences... If these games go the other way (Chiefs cover - eagles cover)... The public will be broke on Monday and Vegas will fail to have lured in pigs for the biggest slaughterhouse of them all...
If the Chiefs win, people are going to be like "F*** THIS!", Seahawks & Chiefs moving forward? WTFF?
Anyway, I just wanted to present the "dynamics" of the entire SPORTS BETTING WALL, before getting in to "X"'s & "O's...
The Chiefs are clearly an inferior team to the Ravens... The Ravens (this must be said) have to be as happy as can be to be playing the Chiefs in this first round... It "could have been" the Colts (until the Chiefs got blown out at home by the Raiders in the last game of the season)... The Colts have had the Ravens number for many years now... And while I doubt the Ravens think they CAN'T beat the Colts, it's just a relief to dodge that bullet again... Put it this way, the Ravens are 3 point FAVORITES at KC... They would have probably been 2.5 "dogs" at Indy (same as Jets)...
Now that presents a different dynamic... YOU'RE NOW A FAVORITE ON THE ROAD (as the Saints were)... That puts added pressure on a team... As the "dog" team can just play loose and hope for the best...
I'm telling you, as a Ravens fan, that "psychology" doesn't work on the Ravens... They're a team that knows how to take care of business on the road... they have the best POSTSEASON ROAD record, by far, of any team in the NFL over the past decade... They even went in to Foxboro, Mass last year and manhandled the Patriots (the only "home" game that the Patriots have lost in the past 4 seasons)... Year before, they beat the Titans in Nashville (when the Titans were 14-2 with the best record in the NFL)...
The Chiefs are a little "suspect"... They have "no wins" against any teams that are in the playoffs this year... In fact, they've only PLAYED one team that made the playoffs this year (the Colts) where they poured their guts out using all kinds of trick plays & gadgets and still lost by 9 points...
So while the "expert" announcers will tell you all about their #1 ranked rushing offense, and Matt Cassel's "career year"... Remember, this was all done against teams like the Broncos (twice), Jaguars (missing their starting QB), Texans (worst defense in NFL), etc.
Ravens, OTOH... Ended the season with a 12-4 record... The losses were... Overtime loss to Patriots (on the road), in a game they had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter (Patriots were #1 seed in AFC)... Loss to Falcons (on the road), in a Thursday Night game on 3 days rest... Raven had the lead with 50 seconds to go before the referees started throwing flags all over the place allowing the Falcons to score a final TD on a pass to Roddy white in which HE HIMSELF admitted that he's committed an offensive foul on (Falcons were #1 seed in the NFC)... The Steelers... In which the Ravens had the lead with 2 minutes to go until huge play by Troy Polamalu forced a fumble and set up the Steelers with a game winning TD... And a loss to the Bengals in week 2 where the Ravens just didn't show up to play after wiping themselves out on the first MNF game of the season vs. the much hyped Jets...
Of course it always sounds like I'm touting the Ravens (which is true)... But it is NOT without merit...
What I want to point out here is that it would be a HUGE upset if KC beat the Ravens here (perhaps even more than the Seahawks beating the Saints)... The Saints were "backing in" to the playoffs... They'd lost 2 of their last 3 games (one to the Ravens), and were really coming unglued anyway... The Ravens, OTOH, won their last 4 games in "business like" fashion... They'd gotten it together after the emotional Steelers loss and just went about winning football games...
Nobody really knew why the Chiefs fell apart in the last week of the season against the Raiders... It's not like they weren't playing for something... A win would have made them #3 seed, and instead, they dropped a position to #4...
The Ravens, finding themselves in this spot, aren't thinking ("oh, I hope we can compete in an NFL playoff road game")... They're thinking "Been here - done that - we're EXPECTED to win - let's get it done"... The KC "mojo" is that their NFL statistical rankings aren't that bad, but they've compiled all of them against inferior opponents with no pressure... Their "stats" vs. quality teams aren't so great... Their defensive coordinator is Romeo Crennel (who the Ravens used to beat up on a regular basis twice per year when he was head coach in Cleveland)...
They ALSO know now (with the Jets having beat the Colts)... That a win here, books them a ticket to visit their ARCH RIVAL Pittsburgh Steelers next week... Think the Ravens want to pass up that chance? The Steelers were the team that knocked off the Ravens in the AFC Championship 2 years ago when the Steelers went on to beat the Cardinals...
The only thing I DON'T like about siding with the Ravens is laying points (anytime) on the road, and the fact that they're supported by the public... Normally - I wouldn't lay any "units" on a game like this, but the SPECIAL thing is is that it's a PLAYOFF game (single elimination)... AND that Vegas had a good day vs. the public yesterday... So I'm going to lay (3 units) on the game with the RAVENS...
My $$ management is as follows: Yesterday I won 3 units (2 on Seahawks, 1 on Jets)... So I'll put those same units on the line...
- If that comes in, I'll have 6 units in pocket... (and probably go "light" on the Packers... 1 unit)
- If the Chiefs "cover"... I'll be back to even (owing the $30 juice)... But in that scenario, Vegas would have WIPED OUT the public in 3 consecutive games... I'd then GO LARGE on the Packers (probably 4 units)...
- If it's a PUSH (which is possible, with a 3 point spread)... Then I still have $300 in pocket and would probably go about 2 units on the Packers...
Got all that? :-)
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Dog Killers (4:30 EST)
Line: Eagles by 2.5
I've already given away (in the previous write-up) which way I'm siding in this game... As always, it's not all about "X"'s & "O"'s, it's about invisible things...
For whatever reason, the public still seems to be in love with a "dog killing" quarterback, and a President of the United States who likes to call him up from time to time to say how PROUD he is of his dog killing skills that he is a role model in todays society...
I've said enough about it... And at this point, I'm happy to let WHATEVER WILL BE... BE... If I live in a country that wants to turn dog torturers into heros, and honor Chicago mobsters who want to enact a totalitarian government police state while people cheer him on, and award him Nobel Peace Prizes... So be it!
As always... I like to create "scenarios" in my mind... Oftentimes, STRANGE SEQUENCES OF EVENTS come jelling together to create that scenario...
I remember quite vividly this past football season (it was just AFTER the game where Vick exploded on the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football), and the Falcons were quietly winning games, that I said to myself...
"Oh no... here we go... It's going to be the Eagles playing the Falcons (in the Georgia Dome) for the NFC Championship game... You could just see it coming... The DOG KILLER IN CHIEF going in to "stick it to" the team that released him from the organization (and was able to tear up the $100 million contract on misconduct clauses)...
I don't believe for ONE MINUTE that Vick is not still vindictive towards Arthur Blank (Falcons owner)... In fact, when the Falcons traveled to Philly this year, Vick specifically asked permission to be able to show up to the stadium late so he wouldn't have to meet Blank before the game (that was while Vick was still rehabbing an injury)...
What does that tell you? If I were to tell you that I thought it's because Vick has not changed ONE IOTA (except that he no longer kills dogs because, as "Pavlov's Dog" would dictate, killing dogs gets you 18 months in Leavenworth and takes away $100 million dollars)... Maybe you would tell me that, "No - I'm sure he's a model citizen now, and that all his words have nothing to do with the fact that it's the only way he'll be able to score another lucrative million dollar contract, or get to pal around with the "celebrity ass kisser in chief"...
Reality probably lies somewhere in the middle (but never foreget that the key word there is "lies")...
Anyway, back to "scenarios"... The "scenario" now here (with the Seahawks having defeated the Saints, is that the Seahawks will travel to play the Falcons next week [where the clock will strike midnight], and Atlanta WILL, IN FACT, be hosting the NFC Championship in the Georgia Dome...
Now - the Eagles just have to "make it there" (meaning they'll have to beat the Packers here, then beat the Bears next week on the road)...
Can that happen? Sure! (if for no other reason than to bring CV's mid season premonition into existence)... You gotta know that sportswriters would be splooging themselves to get to cover that outcome...
But I'm hoping that will NOT occur...
Another interesting dynamic that has come into play is that the next round of playoffs is shaping up to be DIVISION rivalries...
- Yesterday, by the Jets winning, now it's AUTOMATIC that they go play the Patriots for ther 3rd time this year...
- If the Ravens win, they'll book a ticket to play arch rival Steelers next week
- & if the Packers win, they'll go play arch rival Bears next week
Is that how the dynamics are shaping up? I hope so!
I'd be happy to put this Vick chapter to a close... Not that I'm against him quietly moving forward and repairing his life.. I'm actually FOR that... But I HATE THE MEDIA SPOTLIGHT on it... I feel like I have to take a shower everytime I see some sportswriter piece on Michael Vick... Why? Because nobody is willing to risk "political incorrectness"... The first sportswriter that come out on the OTHER side (especially now that Obama is in on the gig), will be sure to be facing a press conference by Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton...
The Packers are a team that quietly emerged after a slew of decimating injuries this season... They may be one of the teams that is actually playing their best football coming in... I'd picked them PRESEASON to go to the Superbowl (and stood by that pick even when they were injured and losing games)... Only now are sportswriters starting to get on their bandwagon (which is the main thing that makes ne nervous about supporting them)...
But, you dance with who brought ya, right?
Technically... In this matchup vs. the Eagles (which is a rematch of Week 1 where the Packers beat the Eagles in Philly)... I think the Packers pass rush matches up very well against the eagles front line 9which sucks)... Vick has been able to extend plays with his feet, but it is apparent to me that he is wearing down... The Vikings were able to get to him numerous times (in an embarassing loss), and remember that the Packers know the Vikings schemes very well... Dom Capers, I'm sure studied that film a lot...
The only thing that would make me nervous about supporting the Packers here would be things that you can never control... What if Aaron Rodgers suffers another concussion... Matt Flynn did well vs. the Patriots, but that was when he was taking snaps all week... I just don't know...
Nevertheless, I'm backing thje PACKERS here no matter what... The "units" will be based on what happend in the earlier game... (Which are described in the previous write up)...
If my mind changes... I'll let you know in the comment section...
