AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"I just can't catch a break."

Creditcane™: There is still no escape. Even Houdini failed against me.

SPX
Bullish short day (not a good confirmation of bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Held the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failing its 38.2% retrace (75.99). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Held SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day (completed morning star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Failing its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).



JNK
Bullish short day (also bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (39.14). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day (yet still confirmed inverted hammer). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (28.93). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.99).



WTI
Bearish long day (homing pigeon poisoned). Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (95.46). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.84).



SILVER
Bullish short day. Failing SMA(89), SMA(55) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



AAPL
Bearish long day. Below all SMA's except SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 350.70).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.17.11

TBT (weekly info)
new low 32.53
trend=down
low= 32.53
rev= 34.16; mid= 33.35


This week TBT is making its ninth new low. Unfortunately that means there might be one to four more new lows coming. One to four because the last few down moves either made ten or thirteen new lows. It's below all of the SMA's. This weeks candle looks like an inverted hammer but I'd prefer it to have a higher close (better reversal signal).



AA (weekly info)
new low 15.29
trend=down
low= 15.29
rev= 16.49; mid= 15.89


Alcoa earnings scheduled for 7/11/11. If this down move continues I wouldn't be surprised if they announce early. Below its SMA(21) and testing its monthly 3LB mid. MACD is still moving lower but Williams %R is oversold. Unfortunately there are not too many supports on the way down.



XOM (weekly info)
new low 79.89
trend=down
low= 79.89
rev= 86.36; mid= 83.13


You'd think with oil still pretty high that XOM would be doing much better. But its below its SMA(21) and trending down on the weekly 3LB. The next area of support is $70 (from April 2010). The lower trend line is lined up with SMA(55) so that would be an area of concern if prices get there.

The perfect music to go along with trading today knowing Greece has the confidence vote on Sunday...

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

"So close...yet so far away."

Creditcane™: There is no escape. Don't even bother trying.

SPX
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Held the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). Failing monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (75.99). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.52).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (22.78). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Holding above its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Takuri day (also bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Failing its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4650).



JNK
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace (38.59). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (38.93). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.88).



10YR YIELD
Inverted hammer day. Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Made a new 0.0% retrace (28.93). Still below the upper trend line. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 30.99).



WTI
Homing pigeon day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (95.05). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 97.70).



SILVER
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(89), SMA(55) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bullish thrusting day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace (0.7899). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8092).



CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (338.44). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 350.84). Still below monthly 3LB reversal price.



EEM
Spinning top day (possible morning star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (45.71). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 48.53).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 6.16.11

IWM/SPY (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181

Liquidity is disappearing. Not only did IWM/SPY close bow its weekly 3LB mid it closed below the lower edge of the triangle. Plus it closed below its SMA(21). This week might be forming a bullish harami but we're not in a downtrend. But unless it closes above last weeks mid it won't be too bullish.



90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.020
rev= 0.090; mid= 0.055


Interesting. It's moving higher before the FOMC meeting. Now trading above its weekly 3LB mid. Is the bond market about to let the Fed know ZIRP is doomed?



30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 125.812
rev= 124.312; mid= 125.062


The 30 yr bond seems to have run into resistance the last few weeks in its move higher. It can't break through its 23.6% retrace with any authority. The last four weeks have had lower lows. Too may spinning tops in a row is a sign of serious indecision. So when the move happens it should be fast and furious.

Is it that time?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

What??? Don't take it so personal bulls.

Creditcane™: I am a professional matador.

SPX
Bearish long day (didn't confirm morning star/bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). Failing monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(89). Easily held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 73.52).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Held its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55) & SMA(21). Failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4650).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (39.40). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (39.62). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.96).



10YR YIELD
Bearish LONG day. Failed SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.19). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.62).



WTI
Bearish engulfing day (actually engulfed the bullish engulfing). Failing SMA(144) and held SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (98.93). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.70).



SILVER
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami - barely). Failing SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish short day (confirmed shooting star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace (0.8053). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8113).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Return of The Bond Report™ 6.15.11

It was, obviously, RISK OFF. As always, the credit markets led the way, with Treasuries rallying early. Yet the long bond struggled to make headway at times during the day and the 1-month chart reveals a series of lower highs. That's bearish for the 30y, folks.

Spreads were wider on the day, but JNK stayed above its recent lows, and there was no sense of panic selling in credit. Looking at the charts, LQD, AGG and TIP have had a great run and are quite vulnerable to any decent economic data, should we ever see any again.

IQI and MUB have staged a massive recovery on the back of lower yields in USTs and are also bumping into resistance, the same for higher quality MBS. Might be time for a jump back into the lower quality end of the pool?

Corpies: LQD 0.55%; AGG 0.25%; JNK -0.53%; HYG -0.42%
Govies: TLT 1.82%; IEI 0.62%; TIP 0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.16%; MUB -0.06%
Mortgages: MBB 0.15%
Specialty: ZROZ 2.83%; TBT -3.43%; EMB -0.09%

We have very little F/I here, just 5% in JNK. We started a hedge today.
Long 5% JNK and short 6% TLT.

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011