Morning Audibles 5.20.10

Ladies & Gents... I'm a little out of pocket this morning because I'm having some computer problems... I'm starting this new thread (just to get it started), but I'll have to insert the THEME later on...


CV

364 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 364 of 364   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

@I,

tough to fight the trend man. I'm short or nothing at this point....if we get another push to new highs there will be time to identify it.

I-Man said...

Yeah, should of stabbed my leg with a pen or something.

McFearless said...

if this is corrective watch 1069 and then 1038.

CV said...

@ben @I-Man

Look at bobs link to Mr. Topstep...

He's saying that "in the pits" they're pointing hard at 1050...

McFearless said...

I dont' know anyone that uses them, seeing comments all over that TD Ameritrade webservice is down.

guys, we aren't even sure if P3 has started....I'm beginning to think I havent' even allowed myself to consider how insane it's going to be if it does/has.

bob said...

MCF,

Found this in my links and thought you might get a kick out of it. Global Consciousness Project, they place random number generators all over the world and watch for correlations, supposedly brought on by human mood.

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/index.html

Very weird about the calls, almost wish I still had a tv to see how they were playing this on CNBS.

Another few links-

http://www.internettrafficreport.com/
Good place to find out what is going on with the internet. If you want to find out where your "stuff" comes from run a "tracert".

http://www.spaceweather.com/
Art cashin likes to talk about sunspots, this place does that with a view more toward trying to see auroras.

bob said...

AMTD fine where I am.

DL said...

McF,

I suspect that if we make it to 1038, at least a few of us will notice.

mcHAPPY said...

I guess to outdo EWI, BAM put out 7070 by next week on DOW.

McFearless said...

DL,

I would think so, it's very bizarre, after the flash crash I got one call, but it was from a very young client that called to say thank you...as she was short. In 08 we had people out and the phone rang all day and night. I had people that were short in 08 that were freaking out.

@Bob,

I've seen some pretty interesting long term studies on the sunspots. thanks for those links, interesting stuff there.

McFearless said...

lol McHappy,

this is what we should just be careful of...trying to outdo everyone on how low we can make our targets. Maybe it's because of what played out in September and Jan but I'm still freaked out this is another A-B-C, albeit a more voilent one.

I-Man said...

I think I read where there is supposed to be some major solar storm/sunspot activity in the Jul/Aug timeframe this summer.

Cant remember where I saw it tho-

bob said...

Sunspots-

Its an 11(?) year cycle, we are just coming out of the minimum period.

McFearless said...

I-man,

According to many that do astro work there are going to be alignments that occur over the summer that haven't happened in a long time, and according to those analysts they are uber bearish for stocks.

It's like a giant clock out there.

bob said...

EUR gaining steam....

bob said...

takeoff....

AmenRa said...

must...force...short...squeeze...or...else...

DL said...

Bob @ 1:25

A potentially worthwhile observation.

I-Man said...

Dammit all x2... I knew there was going to be some kind of squeeze...

McFearless said...

EUR should bounce hard soon, I'm not sure I'd get long but sentiment is too low and there are too many fresh shorts that need a welcome to a crowded trade beating.

DL said...

For those who want to get short, I would think that a better setup will come along some time in the next few trading sessions.

CV said...

@McF

I'm always happy to sit back and observe a "nice beating"

"The BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES"... That's CV's motto!

McFearless said...

and by bounce I didn't mean what we just got, I'm talking retracement.

I know this seems hard to believe (but the news is so bad!)

waves....

72bat said...

ben -
tdameritrade accessible for me to view my fusion ira account (still all cash)

McFearless said...

So, must consider that the May low might not hold but Feb's can. If that's the case I think it would also support the A-B-C scenario, I'd think an impulse down would slice right through that Feb. low.

bob said...

Eur at high for week, if it gets above 125-12510 watch out, last weeks stop clearing is going to bite some shorts hard...

DL said...

Bob @ 1:43

I wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally in the Euro when currency trading opens Sunday evening.

CV said...

@Amen

What's the MONTHLY 3lb number?

Is that 1103 or 1094?

72bat said...

this doesn't bode well for bp in future litigation:
A Smoking Gun in BP's Deep Horizon Mess
"BP contracted Schlumberger (SLB) to run the Cement Bond Log (CBL) test that was the final test on the plug that was skipped. The people testifying have been very coy about mentioning this, and you’ll see why.
SLB is an extremely highly regarded (and incredibly expensive) service company. They place a high standard on safety and train their workers to shut down unsafe operations.
SLB gets out to the Deepwater Horizon to run the CBL, and they find the well still
kicking heavily, which it should not be that late in the operation. SLB orders the
“company man” (BP’s man on the scene that runs the operation) to dump kill fluid down the well and shut-in the well. The company man refuses. SLB in the very next sentence asks for a helo to take all SLB personel back to shore. The company man says there are no more helo’s scheduled for the rest of the week (translation: you’re here to do a job, now do it). SLB gets on the horn to shore, calls SLB’s corporate HQ, and gets a helo flown out there at SLB’s expense and takes all SLB personel to shore.
6 hours later, the platform explodes."

bob said...

I think there is going to be another very long weekend for europe, they really have to get on the same page, or go back to the franc, the mark...etc

CV said...

@bob

Yeah I think the "late to the party" Euro shorts are going to get SMOKED...

Hell, they could have shorted it at 1.37 (back in February) when CV told them to...

But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo!

They had to go listening to those chumps at Goldman Sachs...

CV said...

@bob

They ought to have a "PLAZA DISCORD" summit :-)

DL said...

Bob,

Personally, I think they ought to just throw out a few bad apples, and stick with the Euro. Make it a "Darwinian" thing.

Sort of like the S&P500 index. Your market cap falls below a certain level, you're outa there.

AmenRa said...

CV

1095.63 is the monthly 3LB reversal price.

bob said...

That or AU is going to send an army over, it'll take a while, CA, would probably help.

McFearless said...

"They had to go listening to those chumps at Goldman Sachs..."

Or they could have picked one of dozens of fresh faced CNBS pundits that have recently become Euro Bears and Dollar Bulls.

Still time to buy some gold acording to Mr. Boo Yah.

bob said...

The US has a better, and more effective currency union with China.

McFearless said...

London takes the "we are watching you" idea to a whole new level:

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/vancouver/blog/fourth_place_medal/post/London-unveils-creepy-looking-mascots-for-2012-O?urn=oly,242206

McFearless said...

sad to say I have meetings the rest of the day, there could be some real fireworks into the close.

good luck everyone, check in tonight when I get home.

AmenRa said...

HAHAHA watching the Tick shows when there is intervention. You don't go from -900 to +800 without some assistance.

CV said...

@Amen

Interesting footnote is that from the Oct 2007 highs, it took 3 MONTHS to do a monthly 3lb reversal...

This is all just fun and games kids...

July beatches!

CV said...

@Amen

33 Liberty doth leave a large footprint...

CV said...

or maybe it was Schadenfraude just playing games...

CV said...

@72 bat

"cement bond log"... Yuk... Sounds like they need a laxative...

Mannwich said...

Fire up this circuit breakers.

AmenRa said...

Approaching the "circuit breaker is off" time of day. Could get interesting.

I-Man said...

10pt SPX swings every hour is a daytraders paradise...

CV said...

@DL

"Personally, I think they ought to just throw out a few bad apples, and stick with the Euro. Make it a "Darwinian" thing."

Well if you systematically do that, all you'll be left with in the end is Germany...

So why not just cut to the chase and call it a MARK?

AmenRa said...

I-Man

I was thinking about the 1.618 off the low also. There's a few fibos converging in that area.

I-Man said...

Longs are screwed like shorts were screwed in late March 2009 if that 1078 becometh resistance...

No BOUNCE for you!

Mannwich said...

@CV: Ha! Great point. @2:07.

Mannwich said...

Or the Euro Mark.

bob said...

The moves in currency this week have blown up a few HF's, more fuel for your down next week idea.

The flash crash was weird, it contained itself. I think because of the yen being the first to go, and no exit, this is full out carry unwind, the beginning.

Mannwich said...

I agree, bob. Has the same "feel" of the last carry unwind period.

72bat said...

cv -
that item appears to be "pre-news (unconfirmed) but in the event, slb advice was just the opposite, stick a plug in this hole and quick. shutting down the well on the same day that bp execs were on board celebrating its success didn't seem to be an option for the bp company in charge

CV said...

@I-Man

a level like that (a 1.618 off a major low)... Would take many weeks to play out to a resolution...

So I'd be thinking about it more like a magnet than a ceiling...

I-Man said...

Karen that 1072 is looking pretty good for a closing target...

karen said...

i'm back to watching jnk..for kicks, hints, tells.

the good bounce in crude may bet sold at these levels and dto bot again.. dto didn't budge much on the bounce.. i like that upward momentum but i may sell half into the close..

I-Man said...

Hear that Leftback???

She cant keep her eyes of your junk...

72bat said...

karen -
seem to recall you got into dto @ <60, right?
damn girl!

AmenRa said...

All volume can be found in declining issues. Up moves are shake outs.

DL said...

I-Man,

I think that, by now, the Leftback screen name has gone to blogger-heaven.

karen said...

bat.. my lowest shares are under 56 but i have some higher priced ones, too.. i posted earlier that my cost basis only puts me at a 10% gain.. i should have sold those higher priced shares in february.. it's a subject i don't like to think about as it wasn't hindsight but because i left my computer for a guest.. and then my streaming quotes died..

karen said...

crude running all the way back to 70 now..

I-Man said...

DL,

Thats my fear... but I thought I'd give it one last hurrah...

karen said...

hilarious.. that was short lived.. back to 68..

72bat said...

karen -
missed your earlier on the 10% gain - i remember now your gnashing of teeth back then on missing an exit at the top of the escalator, but also recall it was since then you recc'ed the <60 entry.

karen said...

I-Man, LB can't post when on the road from his laptop for some reason... browser issue.. you can send him an email..

DL said...

Could it be that we've seen the low for the day?

I-Man said...

Whats the fun in that Karen?

I'd rather tease him from afar... wouldnt you?

DL said...

I-Man @ 2:43

Absolutely.

BinT said...

Leftback has lost so much money recently he had to sell his laptop! And he won't get to see Joey Heatherton...no, wait...we don't either....

...humbug....

karen said...

No econ news for tomorrow. Existing Home Sales on Monday.. but opex fri/sat..

too much to think about! it's giving me a headache..

AmenRa said...

Market moving higher yet issues a/d is 0.5 and volume a/d is 0.4. WTH?

I-Man said...

Karen, you could always email me and we could talk about him behind his back...

Or do you have a "no dread" policy I dont know about?

DL said...

Karen @ 2:48

Ya think they'll try to fry the put-holders tomorrow?

karen said...

after 1094 comes my top.. roughly.. now 1102.

I-Man said...

Come on K, already given up on the 1072?

I still think its got some pull, fwiw.

DL said...

How many times have we seen Karen's top... from above and below?

I've lost count by now.

karen said...

yay! $gaso!

Gasoline futures close below $2 a gallon for first time since February; oil falls 2.3%

I-man.. you are funny.. more fun to talk about him right here! he can see us but we can't see him : ) better yet, he can't get back at us!

karen said...

May 20, 2010, 2:54 p.m. EDT
Senate votes to end debate on bank reform bill

karen said...

Actually, I-Man, I've decided never to speak to him again.. about him is another story !

DL said...

Probably revisit the 1075-1080 level tomorrow.

I-Man said...

Thats cold.

karen said...

DL.. please put 1072 in your head.. we have to go there.

I-Man said...

Close at the lows...

(I actually have zero analysis to back this up, just a hunch.)

DL said...

Karen @ 2:59

Now we're all very intrigued.

DL said...

Karen @ 3:00

I think it's entirely possible.

I have offered no specific opinion about intraday pricing.

Anonymous said...

Today's headline:
BP Capturing 5,000 BBLs a Day.

Tomorrow's headline:
BP SHOCKED That Gusher is UNEXPECTANTLY 10X Greater Than First Estimates.

Bank on it.
Foghorn

I-Man said...

Fog,

You get your rig all fixed up? Ever determine a cause?

I-Man said...

I'm long calls on BP's dishonesty.

DL said...

Which is worse, oil company executives, or investment banking executives?

karen said...

okay.. so if your bent was bullish.. what is going thru your head right now.. and if you are scared.. do you want to sell today.. hope for a better price tomorrow.. but then faced with being stuck over the weekend ??

mcHAPPY said...

My money is still on corrective. .382 off 1076.32 was 10.92.64. That has been breached.

I-Man said...

DL, granted I-Man is young, but I've never met any executive that I trusted.

Could be my line of work though.

Mannwich said...

@I-Man: It's NOT just your line of work. Trust me.

DL said...

Karen @ 3:13

More often than not, when everyone is scared as hell on a Friday afternoon, the market rallies the following Monday.
(Didn't work out so well on 10/19/87, however).

karen said...

The expiring June contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled more than 8 percent to a nine-month low as remaining open interests were either rolled to the next month or sold, in an effort to avoid physical delivery.

The contract has fallen 26 percent since hitting a 19-month high of $87.15 on May 3.

"Oil prices are sliding on liquidations ahead of the June contract's expiration and as we have a glut of oil in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.

U.S. crude for June delivery fell $2.07 to $67.80 a barrel by 2:05 p.m. EDT in volatile trade ahead of expiry on Thursday. It slumped earlier to $64.24, the lowest since July 30.

for more:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6142V820100520?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29

Obama said...

Tax the bastards.

mcHAPPY said...

A break of 1096 will make me rethink things.

karen said...

The steep drop in oil prices should give Memorial Day travelers a gift at the gas pump as they head out for the holiday weekend. Gasoline prices dropped Thursday for the 14th day in a row, and they'll be pushed even lower as oil prices continue to tumble.

Futures contracts for most energy commodities slumped as financial troubles in Europe and weak jobs numbers in the U.S. forced a sell-off on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 250 points, or 2.4 percent, in early afternoon trading.

Prices for heating oil, gasoline and natural were down more than 3 percent.

"People are saying it's time to get out," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Earlier this year, Lynch stood out from many of his peers by predicting that oil prices would fall.

"The market has gotten way ahead of itself," Lynch said. "People kept saying that soon demand will go up and inventories will go down. But that's not happening."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-2-percent-lower-apf-1829686488.html?x=0

I-Man said...

Any spare room in the basement, Lloyd?

I-Man said...

Nic, if you're around, I think I may have just ID'd my first gartley...

We'll see if it plays out.

I-Man said...

For the curious...

http://www.traderslog.com/gartley-pattern/

karen said...

geez, i-man, i had a headache before i attempted to read your link..

karen said...

where is CV? i wish he would just pop in and tell me what the spx will close at today..

CV said...

@karen

The expiring June contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled more than 8 percent to a nine-month low as remaining open interests were either rolled to the next month or sold, in an effort to avoid physical delivery.

Whether they like it or not they're going to GET delivery...

As soon as that frozen blob of tar in the Gulf hits the gulf stream, it'll carry it right to their doorstep...

mcHAPPY said...

@I

I don't think oil has any oil left. Something tells me come reporting period for Q2 we will see another string of 0 lost days.

CV said...

@karen

I'm bust enjoying my Joey Heatherton fotos...

Alone, without Bruce... :-)

72bat said...

k -
try this one instead
gartly pattern

karen said...

laughing out loud ! bat !! but i still have the headache : )

BinT said...

Ooooohhh,

I am sending Santa a letter this afternoon for the coal and switches crowd....and if Joey don't show, you know who gets put on the letterhead.....

I-Man said...

The Gartley is the shit.

CV said...

@karen

Wait... Here's the best example of the Gartley Pattern

mcHAPPY said...

Crash in to the close? Oui, oui?

BinT said...

Besides, I saw a video of Robert Redford last night...taken just a few days ago...and I can tell you that good looks don't last.

The man was unrecognizable...

CV said...

Here's the "jesus" pattern


stare at the center of this one for 10 seconds then stare at the wall...

karen said...

CV, that was mean!

BinT said...

He looked very much like Wilford Brimley....

(Hey, fat old Wilford Brimley here to ask you about your diabetic supplies......)

BinT said...

Best looking woman EVER in a movie or on TV was:

I-Man said...

Fine, I'll take my esoteric arcane technical patterns elsewhere...

Not sure where that is yet tho...

This is one of the last bastions of kookdom left.

I-Man said...

I bet you AM wouldnt make fun of the Gartley...

BinT said...

Julie Christie in Dr. Zhivago...

Mannwich said...

U-G-L-Y with a capital UGLY.

I-Man said...

More of an Anna Karenina fan, here...

Zhivago was a good read tho.

CV said...

@Bruce

Lara... I'll go along with that...

CV said...

But what about J0 Raquel Tejada in One Million Years BC?

mcHAPPY said...

Going in to the close with a little music for a little social mood.

72bat said...

ditto on lara
she was still hot in "away from her"

I-Man said...

Is that a close at 1072 that mine eyes behold?

Karen, I think this calls for a celebration, drinks on me.

mcHAPPY said...

PIssed off I sold TZA but glad I got back in right away. Sold around 7.30 and bought back in around 7.55.

72bat said...

damn! who was it earlier today said it would close on the lows? kudos on that slick shizz!

mcHAPPY said...

Good job, Karen!

See you all tomorrow so we can witness what a 3rd of a 3rd looks like - I hope!

karen said...

sure wish i'd held that vxx i sold the other day..

so excited to close below 1090, DL :P

CV said...

We can all drink "FAT FINGER" Tequila shots!

karen said...

AND, we seem to have closed BELOW 1072..

Bear trap?! nah! but don't tell BR.. he still thinks this is a typical recovery..

karen said...

gotta run now but will check back this evening.. TIA, AR

CV said...

@karen

Well if his Wall St. career ever takes a hit, he always has his "blogging" to fall back on...

So he has THAT going for him!

I-Man said...

Thx, Bat.

Just a hunch, it was.

friz said...

Apologies for late comment.

Fresh Johnnies I've spoken with in last week:
friz: Do u think market going to get better or worse?
J: Oh, definitely worse.
f: Made changes to your 401k?
J: Well, no
f: WTF not? (not exact quote)
J: (a few) Waiting for it to get back [to 'X'] (but mostly) I dunno, just haven't gotten around to it.

friz said...

Some of those Johnnies were first appts, some were seconds who I'd already suggested, strongly, they get out of market in mid/late Apr

I-Man said...

Good to know that there are advisors like Friz and Ben around... you guys rock.

I-Man said...

As opposed to this mindless drivel that someone sent me just now...

"At the close of trading today all market participants can be satisfied that we have finally experienced a market correction of at least 10%. Prior to today there had been some debate about this fact, as the “flash crash” on May 6 was just an intraday correction rather than one based upon prices at the market close. So we are nearer to getting back to the business of investing based upon company fundamentals rather than emotion."




What a joke...

friz said...

I'd love to hire your clone, I-man (and good call!)

You can imagine the crap I have to put up with from my compliance for being a bear. But at least SH isn't banned (yet).

Hate it when Johnnies toss good advice away.

friz said...

I'm ALREADY investing based on company fundamentals

friz said...

I'm ALREADY investing based on company fundamentals.

I-Man said...

Still going in the AH...

I-Man said...

I'm sure this will end well...

"Scientists create 1st bacteria strain with man-made genes"

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2010-05-21-genome21_ST_N.htm


So babylon...

Nic said...

I am back, sorry I am here now Bob.

I-Man if you are using metatrader I have pattern searching software for you that will blow your mind.

Happy you found MrTopstep

I-Man said...

Hi Nic,

Havent played around with metatrader yet, and would be interested to see how that stuff works...

"Its as easy as buy low, and sell high, right?"

JK...

I can see where it would help to id gartley's, they're a bit tricky to spot, have been for me anyway. I still havent done the actual geo measurements on them, just going off the visuals.

You missed a fun day, hope you had "funner" times elsewhere.

Nic said...

I-Man it measures all the swings and the fibs, tells you potential reversal areas using fibs and where patterns are forming. It is pretty cool

Not fun. But after the rude comments on my blog about cutting my EURUSD short two nights ago was happy to see it has rallied 550 since :)

I-Man said...

Hubristic tool.

I-Man said...

Just went back and read those...

:)

I-Man said...

Last guy at the party gets to say...

NEW THREAD UP!

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