Ladies & Gents... I'm a little out of pocket this morning because I'm having some computer problems... I'm starting this new thread (just to get it started), but I'll have to insert the THEME later on...
CV
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364 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 364 of 364 Newer› Newest»@I,
tough to fight the trend man. I'm short or nothing at this point....if we get another push to new highs there will be time to identify it.
Yeah, should of stabbed my leg with a pen or something.
if this is corrective watch 1069 and then 1038.
@ben @I-Man
Look at bobs link to Mr. Topstep...
He's saying that "in the pits" they're pointing hard at 1050...
I dont' know anyone that uses them, seeing comments all over that TD Ameritrade webservice is down.
guys, we aren't even sure if P3 has started....I'm beginning to think I havent' even allowed myself to consider how insane it's going to be if it does/has.
MCF,
Found this in my links and thought you might get a kick out of it. Global Consciousness Project, they place random number generators all over the world and watch for correlations, supposedly brought on by human mood.
http://noosphere.princeton.edu/index.html
Very weird about the calls, almost wish I still had a tv to see how they were playing this on CNBS.
Another few links-
http://www.internettrafficreport.com/
Good place to find out what is going on with the internet. If you want to find out where your "stuff" comes from run a "tracert".
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Art cashin likes to talk about sunspots, this place does that with a view more toward trying to see auroras.
AMTD fine where I am.
McF,
I suspect that if we make it to 1038, at least a few of us will notice.
I guess to outdo EWI, BAM put out 7070 by next week on DOW.
DL,
I would think so, it's very bizarre, after the flash crash I got one call, but it was from a very young client that called to say thank you...as she was short. In 08 we had people out and the phone rang all day and night. I had people that were short in 08 that were freaking out.
@Bob,
I've seen some pretty interesting long term studies on the sunspots. thanks for those links, interesting stuff there.
lol McHappy,
this is what we should just be careful of...trying to outdo everyone on how low we can make our targets. Maybe it's because of what played out in September and Jan but I'm still freaked out this is another A-B-C, albeit a more voilent one.
I think I read where there is supposed to be some major solar storm/sunspot activity in the Jul/Aug timeframe this summer.
Cant remember where I saw it tho-
Sunspots-
Its an 11(?) year cycle, we are just coming out of the minimum period.
I-man,
According to many that do astro work there are going to be alignments that occur over the summer that haven't happened in a long time, and according to those analysts they are uber bearish for stocks.
It's like a giant clock out there.
EUR gaining steam....
takeoff....
must...force...short...squeeze...or...else...
Bob @ 1:25
A potentially worthwhile observation.
Dammit all x2... I knew there was going to be some kind of squeeze...
EUR should bounce hard soon, I'm not sure I'd get long but sentiment is too low and there are too many fresh shorts that need a welcome to a crowded trade beating.
For those who want to get short, I would think that a better setup will come along some time in the next few trading sessions.
@McF
I'm always happy to sit back and observe a "nice beating"
"The BEATINGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MORALE IMPROVES"... That's CV's motto!
and by bounce I didn't mean what we just got, I'm talking retracement.
I know this seems hard to believe (but the news is so bad!)
waves....
ben -
tdameritrade accessible for me to view my fusion ira account (still all cash)
So, must consider that the May low might not hold but Feb's can. If that's the case I think it would also support the A-B-C scenario, I'd think an impulse down would slice right through that Feb. low.
Eur at high for week, if it gets above 125-12510 watch out, last weeks stop clearing is going to bite some shorts hard...
Bob @ 1:43
I wouldn't be surprised to see a big rally in the Euro when currency trading opens Sunday evening.
@Amen
What's the MONTHLY 3lb number?
Is that 1103 or 1094?
this doesn't bode well for bp in future litigation:
A Smoking Gun in BP's Deep Horizon Mess
"BP contracted Schlumberger (SLB) to run the Cement Bond Log (CBL) test that was the final test on the plug that was skipped. The people testifying have been very coy about mentioning this, and you’ll see why.
SLB is an extremely highly regarded (and incredibly expensive) service company. They place a high standard on safety and train their workers to shut down unsafe operations.
SLB gets out to the Deepwater Horizon to run the CBL, and they find the well still
kicking heavily, which it should not be that late in the operation. SLB orders the
“company man” (BP’s man on the scene that runs the operation) to dump kill fluid down the well and shut-in the well. The company man refuses. SLB in the very next sentence asks for a helo to take all SLB personel back to shore. The company man says there are no more helo’s scheduled for the rest of the week (translation: you’re here to do a job, now do it). SLB gets on the horn to shore, calls SLB’s corporate HQ, and gets a helo flown out there at SLB’s expense and takes all SLB personel to shore.
6 hours later, the platform explodes."
I think there is going to be another very long weekend for europe, they really have to get on the same page, or go back to the franc, the mark...etc
@bob
Yeah I think the "late to the party" Euro shorts are going to get SMOKED...
Hell, they could have shorted it at 1.37 (back in February) when CV told them to...
But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo!
They had to go listening to those chumps at Goldman Sachs...
@bob
They ought to have a "PLAZA DISCORD" summit :-)
Bob,
Personally, I think they ought to just throw out a few bad apples, and stick with the Euro. Make it a "Darwinian" thing.
Sort of like the S&P500 index. Your market cap falls below a certain level, you're outa there.
CV
1095.63 is the monthly 3LB reversal price.
That or AU is going to send an army over, it'll take a while, CA, would probably help.
"They had to go listening to those chumps at Goldman Sachs..."
Or they could have picked one of dozens of fresh faced CNBS pundits that have recently become Euro Bears and Dollar Bulls.
Still time to buy some gold acording to Mr. Boo Yah.
The US has a better, and more effective currency union with China.
London takes the "we are watching you" idea to a whole new level:
http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/vancouver/blog/fourth_place_medal/post/London-unveils-creepy-looking-mascots-for-2012-O?urn=oly,242206
sad to say I have meetings the rest of the day, there could be some real fireworks into the close.
good luck everyone, check in tonight when I get home.
HAHAHA watching the Tick shows when there is intervention. You don't go from -900 to +800 without some assistance.
@Amen
Interesting footnote is that from the Oct 2007 highs, it took 3 MONTHS to do a monthly 3lb reversal...
This is all just fun and games kids...
July beatches!
@Amen
33 Liberty doth leave a large footprint...
or maybe it was Schadenfraude just playing games...
@72 bat
"cement bond log"... Yuk... Sounds like they need a laxative...
Fire up this circuit breakers.
Approaching the "circuit breaker is off" time of day. Could get interesting.
10pt SPX swings every hour is a daytraders paradise...
@DL
"Personally, I think they ought to just throw out a few bad apples, and stick with the Euro. Make it a "Darwinian" thing."
Well if you systematically do that, all you'll be left with in the end is Germany...
So why not just cut to the chase and call it a MARK?
I-Man
I was thinking about the 1.618 off the low also. There's a few fibos converging in that area.
Longs are screwed like shorts were screwed in late March 2009 if that 1078 becometh resistance...
No BOUNCE for you!
@CV: Ha! Great point. @2:07.
Or the Euro Mark.
The moves in currency this week have blown up a few HF's, more fuel for your down next week idea.
The flash crash was weird, it contained itself. I think because of the yen being the first to go, and no exit, this is full out carry unwind, the beginning.
I agree, bob. Has the same "feel" of the last carry unwind period.
cv -
that item appears to be "pre-news (unconfirmed) but in the event, slb advice was just the opposite, stick a plug in this hole and quick. shutting down the well on the same day that bp execs were on board celebrating its success didn't seem to be an option for the bp company in charge
@I-Man
a level like that (a 1.618 off a major low)... Would take many weeks to play out to a resolution...
So I'd be thinking about it more like a magnet than a ceiling...
Karen that 1072 is looking pretty good for a closing target...
i'm back to watching jnk..for kicks, hints, tells.
the good bounce in crude may bet sold at these levels and dto bot again.. dto didn't budge much on the bounce.. i like that upward momentum but i may sell half into the close..
Hear that Leftback???
She cant keep her eyes of your junk...
karen -
seem to recall you got into dto @ <60, right?
damn girl!
All volume can be found in declining issues. Up moves are shake outs.
I-Man,
I think that, by now, the Leftback screen name has gone to blogger-heaven.
bat.. my lowest shares are under 56 but i have some higher priced ones, too.. i posted earlier that my cost basis only puts me at a 10% gain.. i should have sold those higher priced shares in february.. it's a subject i don't like to think about as it wasn't hindsight but because i left my computer for a guest.. and then my streaming quotes died..
crude running all the way back to 70 now..
DL,
Thats my fear... but I thought I'd give it one last hurrah...
hilarious.. that was short lived.. back to 68..
karen -
missed your earlier on the 10% gain - i remember now your gnashing of teeth back then on missing an exit at the top of the escalator, but also recall it was since then you recc'ed the <60 entry.
I-Man, LB can't post when on the road from his laptop for some reason... browser issue.. you can send him an email..
Could it be that we've seen the low for the day?
Whats the fun in that Karen?
I'd rather tease him from afar... wouldnt you?
I-Man @ 2:43
Absolutely.
Leftback has lost so much money recently he had to sell his laptop! And he won't get to see Joey Heatherton...no, wait...we don't either....
...humbug....
No econ news for tomorrow. Existing Home Sales on Monday.. but opex fri/sat..
too much to think about! it's giving me a headache..
Market moving higher yet issues a/d is 0.5 and volume a/d is 0.4. WTH?
Karen, you could always email me and we could talk about him behind his back...
Or do you have a "no dread" policy I dont know about?
Karen @ 2:48
Ya think they'll try to fry the put-holders tomorrow?
after 1094 comes my top.. roughly.. now 1102.
Come on K, already given up on the 1072?
I still think its got some pull, fwiw.
How many times have we seen Karen's top... from above and below?
I've lost count by now.
yay! $gaso!
Gasoline futures close below $2 a gallon for first time since February; oil falls 2.3%
I-man.. you are funny.. more fun to talk about him right here! he can see us but we can't see him : ) better yet, he can't get back at us!
May 20, 2010, 2:54 p.m. EDT
Senate votes to end debate on bank reform bill
Actually, I-Man, I've decided never to speak to him again.. about him is another story !
Probably revisit the 1075-1080 level tomorrow.
Thats cold.
DL.. please put 1072 in your head.. we have to go there.
Close at the lows...
(I actually have zero analysis to back this up, just a hunch.)
Karen @ 2:59
Now we're all very intrigued.
Karen @ 3:00
I think it's entirely possible.
I have offered no specific opinion about intraday pricing.
Today's headline:
BP Capturing 5,000 BBLs a Day.
Tomorrow's headline:
BP SHOCKED That Gusher is UNEXPECTANTLY 10X Greater Than First Estimates.
Bank on it.
Foghorn
Fog,
You get your rig all fixed up? Ever determine a cause?
I'm long calls on BP's dishonesty.
Which is worse, oil company executives, or investment banking executives?
okay.. so if your bent was bullish.. what is going thru your head right now.. and if you are scared.. do you want to sell today.. hope for a better price tomorrow.. but then faced with being stuck over the weekend ??
My money is still on corrective. .382 off 1076.32 was 10.92.64. That has been breached.
DL, granted I-Man is young, but I've never met any executive that I trusted.
Could be my line of work though.
@I-Man: It's NOT just your line of work. Trust me.
Karen @ 3:13
More often than not, when everyone is scared as hell on a Friday afternoon, the market rallies the following Monday.
(Didn't work out so well on 10/19/87, however).
The expiring June contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled more than 8 percent to a nine-month low as remaining open interests were either rolled to the next month or sold, in an effort to avoid physical delivery.
The contract has fallen 26 percent since hitting a 19-month high of $87.15 on May 3.
"Oil prices are sliding on liquidations ahead of the June contract's expiration and as we have a glut of oil in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
U.S. crude for June delivery fell $2.07 to $67.80 a barrel by 2:05 p.m. EDT in volatile trade ahead of expiry on Thursday. It slumped earlier to $64.24, the lowest since July 30.
for more:
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6142V820100520?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29
Tax the bastards.
A break of 1096 will make me rethink things.
The steep drop in oil prices should give Memorial Day travelers a gift at the gas pump as they head out for the holiday weekend. Gasoline prices dropped Thursday for the 14th day in a row, and they'll be pushed even lower as oil prices continue to tumble.
Futures contracts for most energy commodities slumped as financial troubles in Europe and weak jobs numbers in the U.S. forced a sell-off on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 250 points, or 2.4 percent, in early afternoon trading.
Prices for heating oil, gasoline and natural were down more than 3 percent.
"People are saying it's time to get out," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Earlier this year, Lynch stood out from many of his peers by predicting that oil prices would fall.
"The market has gotten way ahead of itself," Lynch said. "People kept saying that soon demand will go up and inventories will go down. But that's not happening."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-settles-2-percent-lower-apf-1829686488.html?x=0
Any spare room in the basement, Lloyd?
Nic, if you're around, I think I may have just ID'd my first gartley...
We'll see if it plays out.
For the curious...
http://www.traderslog.com/gartley-pattern/
geez, i-man, i had a headache before i attempted to read your link..
where is CV? i wish he would just pop in and tell me what the spx will close at today..
@karen
The expiring June contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange tumbled more than 8 percent to a nine-month low as remaining open interests were either rolled to the next month or sold, in an effort to avoid physical delivery.
Whether they like it or not they're going to GET delivery...
As soon as that frozen blob of tar in the Gulf hits the gulf stream, it'll carry it right to their doorstep...
@I
I don't think oil has any oil left. Something tells me come reporting period for Q2 we will see another string of 0 lost days.
@karen
I'm bust enjoying my Joey Heatherton fotos...
Alone, without Bruce... :-)
k -
try this one instead
gartly pattern
laughing out loud ! bat !! but i still have the headache : )
Ooooohhh,
I am sending Santa a letter this afternoon for the coal and switches crowd....and if Joey don't show, you know who gets put on the letterhead.....
The Gartley is the shit.
@karen
Wait... Here's the best example of the Gartley Pattern
Crash in to the close? Oui, oui?
Besides, I saw a video of Robert Redford last night...taken just a few days ago...and I can tell you that good looks don't last.
The man was unrecognizable...
Here's the "jesus" pattern
stare at the center of this one for 10 seconds then stare at the wall...
CV, that was mean!
He looked very much like Wilford Brimley....
(Hey, fat old Wilford Brimley here to ask you about your diabetic supplies......)
Best looking woman EVER in a movie or on TV was:
Fine, I'll take my esoteric arcane technical patterns elsewhere...
Not sure where that is yet tho...
This is one of the last bastions of kookdom left.
I bet you AM wouldnt make fun of the Gartley...
Julie Christie in Dr. Zhivago...
U-G-L-Y with a capital UGLY.
More of an Anna Karenina fan, here...
Zhivago was a good read tho.
@Bruce
Lara... I'll go along with that...
But what about J0 Raquel Tejada in One Million Years BC?
Going in to the close with a little music for a little social mood.
ditto on lara
she was still hot in "away from her"
Is that a close at 1072 that mine eyes behold?
Karen, I think this calls for a celebration, drinks on me.
PIssed off I sold TZA but glad I got back in right away. Sold around 7.30 and bought back in around 7.55.
damn! who was it earlier today said it would close on the lows? kudos on that slick shizz!
Good job, Karen!
See you all tomorrow so we can witness what a 3rd of a 3rd looks like - I hope!
sure wish i'd held that vxx i sold the other day..
so excited to close below 1090, DL :P
We can all drink "FAT FINGER" Tequila shots!
AND, we seem to have closed BELOW 1072..
Bear trap?! nah! but don't tell BR.. he still thinks this is a typical recovery..
gotta run now but will check back this evening.. TIA, AR
@karen
Well if his Wall St. career ever takes a hit, he always has his "blogging" to fall back on...
So he has THAT going for him!
Thx, Bat.
Just a hunch, it was.
Apologies for late comment.
Fresh Johnnies I've spoken with in last week:
friz: Do u think market going to get better or worse?
J: Oh, definitely worse.
f: Made changes to your 401k?
J: Well, no
f: WTF not? (not exact quote)
J: (a few) Waiting for it to get back [to 'X'] (but mostly) I dunno, just haven't gotten around to it.
Some of those Johnnies were first appts, some were seconds who I'd already suggested, strongly, they get out of market in mid/late Apr
Good to know that there are advisors like Friz and Ben around... you guys rock.
As opposed to this mindless drivel that someone sent me just now...
"At the close of trading today all market participants can be satisfied that we have finally experienced a market correction of at least 10%. Prior to today there had been some debate about this fact, as the “flash crash” on May 6 was just an intraday correction rather than one based upon prices at the market close. So we are nearer to getting back to the business of investing based upon company fundamentals rather than emotion."
What a joke...
I'd love to hire your clone, I-man (and good call!)
You can imagine the crap I have to put up with from my compliance for being a bear. But at least SH isn't banned (yet).
Hate it when Johnnies toss good advice away.
I'm ALREADY investing based on company fundamentals
I'm ALREADY investing based on company fundamentals.
Still going in the AH...
I'm sure this will end well...
"Scientists create 1st bacteria strain with man-made genes"
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/discoveries/2010-05-21-genome21_ST_N.htm
So babylon...
I am back, sorry I am here now Bob.
I-Man if you are using metatrader I have pattern searching software for you that will blow your mind.
Happy you found MrTopstep
Hi Nic,
Havent played around with metatrader yet, and would be interested to see how that stuff works...
"Its as easy as buy low, and sell high, right?"
JK...
I can see where it would help to id gartley's, they're a bit tricky to spot, have been for me anyway. I still havent done the actual geo measurements on them, just going off the visuals.
You missed a fun day, hope you had "funner" times elsewhere.
I-Man it measures all the swings and the fibs, tells you potential reversal areas using fibs and where patterns are forming. It is pretty cool
Not fun. But after the rude comments on my blog about cutting my EURUSD short two nights ago was happy to see it has rallied 550 since :)
Hubristic tool.
Just went back and read those...
:)
Last guy at the party gets to say...
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