Morning Audibles 5.18.10 - Turnaround Tuesday?

Turnaround Tuesday ? We'll see... Not much to "turn around" really (unless you want to call yesterdays intraday recovery a turnaround).

CV makes the case that we're still in a "backing and filling" phase. The following SPY chart illustrates some of the key "backs" and "fills" that have occurred since 1219.80 on the S&P cash, and the lows from the "flash crash".



Most of the major turnarounds have occurred on FIBO days.

- Day 8 was important (as that is where the "flash crash" occurred after 1219.80)
- Day 13 was important (as I'd suggested to watch out for in the thread last Thursday)

While today is Day 16... It IS Day 8 past the "flash crash", so it might bear watching. Futures are pointing positive. There is a strong likelihood, IMO, that some kind of smaller top could be put in today. The closest destination points would be the .0557 fibo extensions from the April 26th highs. MACD is showing some "bullish" divergence on most of the short term candles, so there is also a chance that we'll get a few intraday swings (basically establishing a peak in the morning, giving it up, then pushing back higher later in the day less enthusiastically).

All in all, CV plans to be watching for "bearish divergence" to show up by the end of the day (to indicate that Day 8 post "flash crash" will indeed be a TURNAROUND day)...

So I'm going with the FADED LOOK "FADE THE LOOK" strategy here...



Gisele B... World Famous FOREX arbitrage expert... Is probably applying her "fading" skills as we speak and moving back to getting paid in Dollars vs. Euros (she looks pretty happy about it too).

306 comments:

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Nic said...

SEC announces a halt to trading if a stock falls more than 10% in 5 minutes

Errrrm but not if it goes up more than 10%?

72bat said...

@ben
during mlt training, i saw other student's sample with fat sludge floating on top and wondered on their lifespans

mcHAPPY said...

@Ben

I am a sucker for the occasional grease run to McD's, BK, Wendy's, I love it all. Luckily it is few and far between visits.

karen said...

ben! not my thing but i did bring it to your attention !! may sell some dto into the close..

CV said...

@McF (ANF)

CV gave you ALL THE TOOLS in the morning thread...

The "fibo days", the designer jeans, what else do you want?

karen said...

Nic, that is UFB.. everyone will just leave the market.. that is akin to banning selling!!!

I-Man said...

EURUSD is straight cratering! I want to go out and install a rainbarrel, but I cant get away from the damn screen...

McFearless said...

Karen, C,

yeah, you did, I was too slow, I got the q's though, I think I'm going to double there...

@72,

that's nasty stuff...I'd bet if more people saw that they'd stop eating that crap. I'm like McHappy though, I make a run for it every now and then.

Nic,
That is such an idiot move, these people are clueless, we are screwed.

McFearless said...

lol, I'm just going to throw this out there but EWI is calling for DOW 8,500 in a few weeks.

don't throw anything at me.

CV said...

@FWIW

I-Man & McHappy

I sort of have 1083-ish as a target... This is about the 5th time that I've said I think it'll hit on May 25th...

karen said...

okay.. here's one up over 10%, FAZ !! lol

CV said...

@McF

I'd have to change hats (DOW 8,500)

DL said...

Nic @ 2:55

Yeah, I can see a trading halt if a major INDEX falls 10% in 5 minutes.

But a single stock??

mcHAPPY said...

@I

Nice to see how you think too. Had a glimpse in to CV's mind a while back and was not scared away :P

Personally, I've been using the Ra's 3LB to help determine general trend and EW basics to pin point targets all from the free traders classic book they have. I've been able to pick out triangles and stuff the last few nights. I also joined EWI yesterday for insight and really enjoy apartyofNY blog - highly recommended. I spent a lot of time at it this weekend and was extremely proud of the 1115 bounce and buy at 1120 and sell in to the close.

Anywyas, don't want to sound too cock. I figured I had to do something after last week when I went 30% up --> 15% down ---> 8% up. Glad I came out green overall but mad about money left on the table.

CV said...

@karen

FAZ up 10%...

Want another LOL???? CV is thinking about putting in a LIMIT ORDER on "C" (for a trade) at 3.50...

DL said...

McF @ 3:01

Not even invectives?

mcHAPPY said...

@Karen

Do not remind me! I was going to jump on FAS but as I said to manny earlier it seemed to take off before I was ready. IT was up 2-3% then. Luckily TZA is playing catch up.

McFearless said...

why is 10% a magic number anyway for individual stocks, what's the significance of 10%? Why not 9, why not 11. Why not 10.618?

good going mcHappy, Ra's 3lb's are an awesome tool to combine with e-wave imo.

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

I have been keeping your comments in mind. After the Kentucky and EUR:USD call in January for May 4th, you are well adhered to my friend.

DL said...

and FAS is DOWN 10%

So how would the rules apply there?

Nic said...

I'm going to join GS and fade their FX calls I think

CV said...

If nothing else...

"Johnny" out there, has got to be seeing this string of 100+ point swings every day and getting a little nervous...

DL said...

McF

Yeah, they should go with 10.618

CV said...

@Nic

It's worked for me (back in March), both times...

I took a Citi guy down too in the process...

DL said...

Why don't the politicians just ban bear markets altogether?

Mannwich said...

Well, well, well. What did I miss on my little walk?

McFearless said...

I'm guessing it doesn't apply to the ETF's since they are a basket of stocks right?

How many months were we talking about this crap. Banning the shorts is not going to stop a big decline if that's what is coming, it'll just make it worse.

bob said...

We need more currency commentary from Gisele.

Great post today CV, I was a little late to it.

Jamie is good, but I think Gerry is the best.

CV said...

@McHappy

Don't forget the "Oscars" calls...

I think I was 7 out of 8...

McFearless said...

"Why don't the politicians just ban bear markets altogether?"

In a way, we already have this, it's the promotion of the "safe" government annuity accounts which will provide a steady income stream in retirement no matter what the market does. Fits right in to the fully entrenched "free-lunch" mentality.

funny comment though.

CV said...

@McF

Why don't they just legislate "happiness"...

You MUST be happy dammit! It's the law!

CV said...

& it's right here on my teleprompter!

mcHAPPY said...

@Manny

Go for another stroll, please!

Mannwich said...

WTF??? Maybe I SHOULD go back out. Was thinking of hitting the gym too in a bit. Maybe I should go NOW?

karen said...

why the bounce? pray tell... orchestrated to enable sell on the not 10% down? lol

DL said...

Mannwich @ 3:16

Bring your iphone. You won't have to miss anything.

mcHAPPY said...

If what I see is correct, I'm expecting a run at 1130.38 before the close followed by a dump in to the close or at the open tomorrow.

CV said...

This politician hasn't PERFECTED the art of 'lying' yet...

He's in training...

Blumenthal: I misspoke about Vietnam service

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37207098/ns/politics-decision_2010/

DL said...

the bounce hasn't disturbed the trend channel

mcHAPPY said...

Manny, GET THE EFF OUT! NOW!!

:D

Mannwich said...

Great point, DL. I actually thought of that on my walk around the lake with the dog! Didn't feel "right" though on such a nice day.

McFearless said...

Manny,

get the hell out of here already!

j/k

and ooh, look at the pretty GS chart!!!

Mannwich said...

WTF happened to that pig, ZSL?

Mannwich said...

Sold my tiny TZA holding too soon, it seems.

mcHAPPY said...

I think I will be cutting back on my following of news and 'fundamentals' outside a trip to see Mish and KD. 5 days of really studying FIBO's and EW has me convinced there is more to it than tea leaves and 'luck'.

bob said...

Nic, good call on EUR.

bob said...

Iman, check out HOOK.

CV said...

@McHappy

CNBC & Bloomberg are there to tell you, THE DAY AFTER, why stocks hit certain fibos & wave endings...

... and to jiggle their bras at you...

CV said...

...so you have THAT going for you...

I-Man said...

Nice Bob, good to see the craft brewers doing well.

In WA and OR they just announced a tax credit for small brewers designed to offset new increases in excise tax. I thought that was a cool statement. Craft brewing is certainly a homegrown PNW industry, and its good to see the states protecting it.

I-Man said...

Ugh... I saw Dick Bove's face and immediately hit the mute button.

McFearless said...

Dick Bove....the OTHER Beard.

I-Man said...

lol... thats right up there with control you can believe in...

I actually repeated that the other night in front of some friends... got a few weird looks.

CV said...

Let's see... on one side you have "hottie" Meredith Whitney telling you to sell banks...

On the other side you have Dick Bove telling you to buy...

hmmm... tough one!

mcHAPPY said...

@CV

Plan your trade and trade your plan.

Might be the best words I've ever heard. Feeling pretty stupid for trying to 'wing it'.

CV said...

@I-Man

I already gave you the "out" for that one...

Tell them it was a line from GET SMART...

I-Man said...

"having sex with her was like reading the wsj"

Mannwich said...

Dick Bove = the poor man's Richard Dreyfus. He looks in the mirror every day and truly believes the white beard gives him credibility on TV and with his clients.

McFearless said...

pretty funny I, a few weekends ago when I was back at PSU I was out with a bunch of guys that are all very liberal, I had a few in me and tested it out there as I came up with it while we were out. Yeah, it didn't go over real well in that group.

CV said...

@Manny

Put him in knickers and a "ranger Bob" hat and he'd probably pass for a Boy Scout Troop leader...

McFearless said...

wow, looking at the charts of the currencies is really something to see. Imagine if this is just the warm up.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Creepy.

CV said...

@McF

Well, just remember... In "The Poseidon Adventure" , there were all those people who didn't think making their way up to THE HULL was such a good idea...

I-Man said...

yeah, like USDJPY and AUDUSD?

Sick...

CV said...

@Mannwich

I had an even "creepier" metaphor in mind but I thought I'd spare you all...

karen said...

Germany wants financial transaction tax: reports
3:38 PM ET 5/18/10 | Marketwatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Germany's ruling coalition wants to introduce a financial transaction tax as a means to get European financial firms to contribute to the euro-zone debt rescue plan, according to media reports Tuesday. A financial transaction tax would be levied on every sale and purchase of financial products while a separate tax may be applied to financial institutions' profits, the reports said.

McFearless said...

mmm.... shelley winters.

AmenRa said...

They are doing everything possible to keep TICK above 300. each time it hits a -600 to -800 buyers come in hard to push it back up.

karen said...

Don't laugh !!

GM Could Gain Enough Value To Repay Entire US Loan -White House 3:40 PM ET 5/18/10 | Dow Jones By Josh Mitchell

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--General Motors Co.'s profitable first-quarter performance has raised the prospect that the U.S. government will recover its entire $50 billion investment in the auto maker, the White House's chief economic adviser said Tuesday.

Obama administration officials have previously said they expected to lose a portion of the bailout funds extended to GM, given how long it may take the company to regain market value.

Larry Summers, the National Economic Council director, said Tuesday that the outlook for full repayment has brightened. GM on Monday reported its first quarterly profit in three years, driven by cost reductions and improved global sales.

"There is a real prospect of recovering most, if not all, of its investment in General Motors," Summers said, referring to the U.S. government. He said he based his assessment on the current value of bonds issued by prebankruptcy GM, as those bonds contain an option to purchase stock once the company goes public again.

Mannwich said...

Thanks cv! LOL.

CV said...

mmm... Stella Stevens

Mannwich said...

It's all just a bunch of "numbers" anyway. LOL. How would we ever know for sure? They can say anything at this point.

Mannwich said...

The real thing that should be truly bothersome is just how much these people (e.g. Summers) can simply lie with ease all the time. It must get easier after a while because these folks are simply pros at it.

McFearless said...

Larry Summers, master investor.

Last LOST episode tonight before the big finale, if there are any other fans out there. I'm glad this is finally coming to an end if I'm going to stop being polite and start getting real.

CV said...

"These aren't the droids you are looking for"...

Mannwich said...

Looking for another big Celtics smackdown of Orlando tonight. Celts-Lakers showing these "soft" teams how its done in the postseason. Ain't nothing pretty about it, but that's the way it is. I thought they'd play Orlando physical and get in their heads but didn't think it would be so soon in the series.

bob said...

I think BB is a sith lord.

mcHAPPY said...

You want to know why Patrick Ewing can't get a head coaching job?

Because he has been working with Howard for 3 years and... well refer to game 1. He played against BIG BABY and a grunt who can't jump right now (PERKINS). Boooooo.

Mannwich said...

@McHappy: Yeah, but look for Howard to have a big game tonight. He'd better or they could go down 2 zip heading to Boston. I'm Doc Rivers, I use all of my big men (including Williams) and foul the shit out of Howard all game. Just foul him every time get close to the basket and frustrate him. Use up those fouls baby!

Mannwich said...

But you're right - he still doesn't have a big enough repertoire of moves at this point in his career. If he did, he'd be unstoppable (along with making at least 70% of his ft's).

CV said...

@Manny

I'm not so sure the Lakers will be able to put away LOS SUNS...

Mannwich said...

@CV: Lakeshow in 5 or 6 at most. Suns don't play any defense (too soft for deep postseason play) and they're too small for the Lakers, who are a very big team.

mcHAPPY said...

@manny

If it isn't a dunk, he isn't finishing. No touch, no finese, no moves.

CV said...

@Manny

It's working for them to single cover Howard, and keep their guys on the perimeter defending the 3's...

Mannwich said...

And I'm quite sure that David Stern is rooting hard for another Lakers-Celts rematch. Any other combination and the ratings would be putrid, I'm guessing.

mcHAPPY said...

I'm rooting for Nash - for obvious reasons - but whoever comes out of the West is who I am going for.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Exactly. So far. Only one game though. If Orlando starts hitting their three's, we could see them win in a blowout tonight.'

I'm most worried about Game 3 back in Boston. The last Game 3 when Boston had too much time off, they came out extremely flat and lost by 30 at home to Cleveland, which was their last loss. I don't like the scheduling of these series at all. They should play every other day, or third day, at most. Players get used to that during season, so I don't think too much time off is always a good thing, even for rest. They'd rather be playing.

Mannwich said...

I LOATHE the Lakers. Can't stand them. This goes back to my youth in the '80's. I'd root for anyone against them.

CV said...

@karen

Well karen... I have some EYE CANDY for you...

Like that chart in todays threads, I should show you the prints that the SPY algos are taking out in the AH...

All on the upside prints (right on trendline)...

We're going D-O-W-N baby...

Nic said...

I don't know if anyone is holding crude shorts but tomorrow is the release of the UN draft sanctions on Iran. Iran has said it is prepared to block oil and "wreck Western economies" if sanctions are imposed.
I am taking profits on my shorts here.

Mannwich said...

@cv: If you're right about the markets "going down" this summer/early fall, would make for an interesting election year, will it not? Pull up a chair and grab some popcorn.

Mannwich said...

I might do the same on my small DTO holding, Nic. Good thought.

CV said...

@Nic

Gisele (in the foto) has some "crude shorts"...

She wants her profits in Euros if she takes them off...

CV said...

@Manny

I'm not 100% that it will all fall apart this year...

Refer to my BIG ASSED WEDGE (I put up a chart on that in yesterdays thread)...

That's my working thesis (until it is broken)...

Note: The WEDGE could conceivably be broken at some point along the way without the THESIS being broken...

Wedges act that way... They can be broken through (only to be regained at a letter time...

Anyway, I still think we take out the March '09 lows to the downside... But I'm planning more like 2011/2012...

CV said...

NEW THREAD UP

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