Note: Morning Audibles is being added here to Andy T's SUNDAY EVENING POST.
The bottom line is that Andy T always writes great commentary (whether it's technical, topical, or both)... I'm loathe to interrupt a building comment thread, and I realize that many may not get the chance to add to something on a Sunday as they still may be involved in family affairs before they finally get settled in on a Monday morning...
Therefore, unless something truly earth shattering happens between Sunday Evening Post & the Monday New York Open, I'm going to limit my ideas to the comment thread itself (and mostly make a practice of it).
That said, I read a number of articles this weekend... As soon as my eyes stop rolling and get fixated on the computer screen, I'll make note of them (in the comment thread)... As such, I apologize in advance for what may appear to be lack of attention to spelling & punctuation.
--- Andy T's Sunday Evening Post---
Good Evening Capitalists,
The bottom line is that Andy T always writes great commentary (whether it's technical, topical, or both)... I'm loathe to interrupt a building comment thread, and I realize that many may not get the chance to add to something on a Sunday as they still may be involved in family affairs before they finally get settled in on a Monday morning...
Therefore, unless something truly earth shattering happens between Sunday Evening Post & the Monday New York Open, I'm going to limit my ideas to the comment thread itself (and mostly make a practice of it).
That said, I read a number of articles this weekend... As soon as my eyes stop rolling and get fixated on the computer screen, I'll make note of them (in the comment thread)... As such, I apologize in advance for what may appear to be lack of attention to spelling & punctuation.
--- Andy T's Sunday Evening Post---
Good Evening Capitalists,
Some random thoughts on the World Cup:
It's amazing how thin the margin of victory can be in these games. For instance, the USA, Slovenia and Ghana all earned points on a singular lapse in mental focus from their opponents. England and Algeria both gave up easy goals to the US and Slovenia, respectively. Then, today the Serbs gave up a penalty kick on a silly "hand ball" very late in the game. All of these mishaps seemed "mental" in origin.
How about South Africa scoring the first goal? Could it have been scripted any better for the host nation. The "icing on the cake" is that it was one hell of a beautiful strike.
I loved watching Ghana take out Serbia and all those shots of the Ghanian fans around the stadium in their elaborate colors.
England is overrated and their coach is vastly overpaid. That was a roster of English Premier All-Stars out there and they did NOT look like the better side. Admittedly, the US goal was "lucky," but one could easily argue that the US was the superior team after the early English goal.
The scoring has been lackluster the first few days. I'm looking forward to watching some of the the real studs of the tournament play their games: Brazil, Spain, Holland, and Portugal. I wish we could have seen a healthier Didier Drogba take on Portugal--the Cote d'Ivoire could have made some noise in this World Cup with a healthy Drogba.
The youthful German team looks extremely good. Either that, or Australia is just plain awful. That was a brutal beat-down today.
Can the World Cup officials please outlaw those annoying horns? That's definitely getting old....
Hope everyone had a good weekend!
181 comments:
Weekly Scorecard
Indices
S&P 500 1,091.60 +2.51%
DJIA 10,211.07 +2.81%
NASDAQ 2,243.60 +1.10%
Russell 2000 648.31 +2.19%
Wilshire 5000 11,285.79 +2.52%
Russell 1000 Growth 486.73 +1.95%
Russell 1000 Value 564.10 +3.07%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 670.78 +2.24%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 842.72 +4.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 551.98 +1.42%
Transports 4,319.88 +3.91%
Utilities 367.77 +3.81%
MSCI Emerging Markets 38.43 +1.62%
Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 947.01 -.57%
Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 849.97 -.51%
Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 920.04 +.19%
Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +83,193 -1.15%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -166 +90
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 42.0 -2.3%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +17,457 -29.82%
CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,322,308 -3.27%
Total Put/Call 1.06 +10.42%
OEX Put/Call 1.17 +28.57%
ISE Sentiment 94.0 +17.65%
NYSE Arms 1.22 -91.05%
Volatility(VIX) 28.79 -19.19%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.24 -10.36%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,767.99 -2.22%
Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.840 Trillion unch.
AAII % Bulls 34.48 -7.04%
AAII % Bears 43.10 +5.51%
Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 255.92 +2.80%
Crude Oil 73.78 +4.70%
Reformulated Gasoline 204.97 +3.37%
Natural Gas 4.78 -.49%
Heating Oil 200.53 +3.61%
Gold 1,230.20 +.62%
Bloomberg Base Metals 183.36 +1.20%
Copper 290.40 +4.52%
US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 338.0 USD/Ton -8.81%
China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,234 Yuan/Ton -1.03%
S&P GSCI Agriculture 294.78 +3.99%
Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 123.20 -.65%
Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.20 -22.0 points
Fed Fund Futures imply 84.0% chance of no change, 16.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/23
US Dollar Index 87.51 -.95%
Yield Curve 250.0 +3 basis points
10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.23% +3 basis points
Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.314 Trillion -.17%
U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.14 -11.79%
Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 127.17 -15.60%
10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99% +1 basis point
TED Spread 47.0 +5 basis points
N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 126.15 +2.97%
Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 154.65 -4.44%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 285.55 -2.43%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 320.0 -14 basis points
M1 Money Supply $1.727 Trillion +1.64%
Business Loans 606.10 +.08%
4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 463,000 +.5%
Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.5% -10 basis points
Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.72% -7 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 560.90 -12.22%
ABC Consumer Confidence -43 +1 point
Weekly Retail Sales +3.60% +90 basis points
Nationwide Gas $2.70/gallon -.03/gallon
U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 31.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 3,423 -12.97%
Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 65.0 +18.18%
Rail Freight Carloads 191,758 -14.82%
Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 82.45 -1.03%
Best Performing Style
Mid-Cap Value +3.74%
Worst Performing Style
Large-Cap Growth +1.95%
Leading Sectors
Coal +8.23%
REITs +7.46%
Oil Tankers +6.95%
Steel +6.48%
Paper +6.14%
Lagging Sectors
Internet +.36%
I-Banks +.14%
Education -.26%
HMOs -.68%
Disk Drives -.70%
Thank You Andy! Big decision time this week I think. I am finding it hard to get a clue from currencies. AUD suggests the upwards retracement before the next leg down whereas EUR, despite its momentum is still below too many key levels to say it is correcting up yet.
Scratch my last, levels broken to the upside in EUR and AUD. FX suggesting we go up first then down.
Well, CV, I thought the English squad was the superior side. Most of the game was played in the US end, and even though I didn't play soccer in high school, my daughter played competitive soccer all through high school and was on the pre-olympic 14 year old squad from the southest region when she was 12. So I have watched a million soccer games.And practices.
Anyway, I thought Fred Smith showed a distinct lack of class this weekend, when he offered 10 million a year for some BCS conference to take in Memphis. FedEX would sponsor this amount, and it so happens Fred's son is one of the quarterbacks for Memphis this year. The U of Memphis has been trying for longer than my lifetime to become a member of the SEC, so Fred may just be trying to buy his way in. His older children got into quite a bit of trouble with the law a few years ago, and Fred seems like one of those amoral businessmen the likes of which we know many examples now.
It would be interesting if Texas and Oklahoma and AandM and Okie State joined the SEC or the Pac 10.
If you are Iowa State can you say "Mountain West"?
World Gold Cup
qqqqtrader: I think Jesse (the ultimate Gold Bug God) is probably jinxing himself with how many times he's brining up the cup and handle on gold...it's probably not going to happen now....
BinT.
Just because they had the time of possession advantage doesn't mean they were the better side. The US defense contained one of the best strikers in the World (Rooney) and were marking the ball well pretty much the entire game.
England has some exceptional defenders, so it's not a surprise that England held the advantage on the possessions. If only they had a goalkeeper....
Would add that it the England/US match "felt" like a draw. There were times that England was building in the 70-80 minute mark that it felt like they were going to overwhelm and eventually score, but the US defense never quite buckled. They held tough under a lot of pressure. So, a draw it was....
Risk on eh?
I would agree with your statement about the US defense Andy. It was our lack of offense that was really troubling.
@ Andy
agree with ya, who knows what might happen if a major gold reserve somewhere on earth is discovered...
abc
test
xyz
Andy,
Great charts as always. Not much else to say as you said it all. The charts are becoming clearer (eventually down) but very shorter term is anyone's guess.
Whatever happens tomorrow I can with absolute certainty say that whatever happens within the first hour or two will be the opposite of the rest of the trading day.
PUMP and DUMP?
DUMP and PUMP?
Ya AT, England is over rated. In fact, they are over rated every time. When it comes to the crunch, you will discover that their defenders always lose a yard on the pace. Even Rooney alone is different from Rooney with Ronaldo.
Argentina needs to maybe look at their composition as Higuain was totally listless and maybe the Inter guy Milto should be playing. Veron is past his peak, anyways.
And yes, one momentary lapse and you are gone. Italians robbed Australians, I think, the last WC when Grasso dived for a Penalty that wasn't there. This one is just starting and Germany was powerful last nite. Am waiting for those flank runs by the Dutch and the artistry of the those Latin Europeans, Spain. Should be fun.
Prashant
In other news,
U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan
So I guess Afganistan is now going to be doomed beyond its imagination.
Prashant
Hussman must not have received his Ph.D. in the same manner or with the same teaching methods that Bernanke did.....
"Barry Switzer, the former head coach at the University of Oklahoma, once said "Some people are born on third base, and go through life thinking they've hit a triple." Among the fascinating aspects of the recent economic "recovery," probably the greatest is the failure of analysts to understand that this growth is none of the private sector's doing.
Wall Street seems to have no concept at all that every bit of growth we've observed over the past year can be traced to government deficit spending, with zero private sector expansion when those deficits are factored out. As I noted last week, if one removes the impact of deficit spending, "the economy has recovered to the point where the year-over-year growth rate since early 2009 now matches the worst performance of any of the 50 years preceding the recent downturn." In effect, Wall Street's is seeing "legs" where the economy is in fact walking on nothing but crutches.
Similarly, it is apalling that Ben Bernanke can say with a straight face that many of the "investments" made by the Fed have been repaid "and some have even made a profit," without immediately noting that the two primary sources of these repayments have been, directly or indirectly, the U.S. Treasury, and savers who are receiving near-zero interest on bank deposit instruments."
@Prashant
That was an interesting article (and the main thing that made me roll my eyes as I woke up this morning)...
Great! That's all we need are mineral deposits in Afghanistan...
So what's the end result? I mean, if Petraeus (and certainly Obama - because this his "his" war now)... Want to spin this as a POSITIVE??????????
You gotta be effing kidding me!
Oh great! Now were fighting for mineral rights... So now we're IMPERIALISTIC instead of supposedly just trying to fight the Taliban...
Wasn't that the problem with Iraq... Goerge Bush's war for oil?...
Obama's war for Lithium? (so his Blackberry will keep running)?
I don't suppose the Chinese (or Russians) are going to just sit back and let us come in there and start mining copper???
Now we'll be at war with China & Russia as well!
And do you know how much water it takes to refine these types of minerals? Last time I checked, Afghanistan looked dry as a bone...
This is NOT good news... If Obama tries to spin this as positive, he's even more of a jerk than previously thought...
@Prashant
To wit:
Now the Iranians have decided it's the PERFECT time to send their own AID FLOTILLAS to Gaza (you know, for humanitarian reasons, not to stir up a bee hive or anything)...
You screw it... All these people just want to blow each other up...
Do it! Get it over with for crying out loud! The suspense is killing me...
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-claims-20100614,0,4955544.story
Reporting from Gulf Shores, Ala. — Real estate agent Mike Reynolds had two desirable beachfront condos in escrow when the tide of crude from the Deepwater Horizon spill washed over his business and left it looking about as appetizing as an oiled crab.
"I lost $20,000 in commission," Reynolds said. "The guy called and said he'd never be able to make any money off of them. He walked away from a $10,000 earnest-money check."
Just a few miles east of Reynolds' Gulf Shores condos, restaurant owner Matt Shipp has seen his Orange Beach business plummet by 90%, even before thick masses of oily seaweed painted the white sand beach Saturday. He put in a claim for $35,000 in lost business for May, and after more than 40 days of phone calls and faxes, got approved for $18,000. When will he get the money, he asked BP's adjuster, the fourth one to whom he had been passed.
....I think you are about to see a 50% haircut in the incomes of gulf businesses and individuals that may last for years. Maybe 20 million people. Read the article. As anyone who has run a business knows, the expenses keep coming in even if the income doesn't...
@BinT
"the expenses keep coming in even if the income doesn't..."
Tell that to the administration (or the IRS will pretty soon)...
"Hope & Change" (as it turns out), isn't free...
But then again... Americans (as it turns out) aren't FREE any more either...
Obama Begins "Lifestyle Health Modification" Program, Mandating Behavioural Changes Within US Society
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/obama-begins-lifestyle-health-modification-program-mandating-behavioural-changes-within-us-s
Great, now we will never leave Afghanistan.
My take:
1. There are no mineral deposits and Obama is just saying that to stop Graysons war-makes-us-poor bill.
2. Everyone knew about the minerals all along (that is why the Russians spent so much time there) and Obama is announcing it now to stop Graysons war-makes-us-poor bill.
PS - Someone should tell Obama it is not actually "his" Lithium, it belongs to Afghanistan.
whew! good thing tungsten wasn't mentioned- that might do damage to my 3X ETF TUNG-
it's been a winner so far(-:!!!!
@Nic
Exactly!
Meanwhile... I pose this as a SERIOUS question to all of you (all my ranting and raving aside so ignore any exclamation marks or CAPS USAGE)...
Where is the f***ing leadership in this country?
Where is it?
On a weekend that you have the Iranians sending flotillas out to Gaza (nothing to see here - no POSSIBILITY that tensions get escalated - it's just a pleasure cruise)...
Where's the response from our leaders...
Oh I know, Obama was busy (55 days later) "kicking some ass" on the Gulf spill, and erstwhile issuing an EXECUTIVE ORDER on "behavior modification" for Americans to stop smoking and stop eating KFC...
OK, I know he's busy (same way he was busy over memorial Day weekend)...
But there are others on the staff right?
Hey, Joe STFU did the Arlington gig...
Where's Hilary Clinton? How come she's not chiming in on Iran?
Why do I have to get news like this from ZERO HEDGE? Where's Robert Gibbs? Where's Rahm? Where's Rachel? Keith? MSNBC?
I do have Becky Quick telling me "stocks" are up because of it... So I suppose it's ALL GOOD, right?
I've decided I'm not going to post today...
Instead, I'm going over to TWSWB to have "Putton on the Ritz" and his stable of "franklin411's" explain it all to me... Because I'm not smart enough to understand...
Let the LEARNIN' begin!
Because this is all TYPICAL right?
In a final regard to the gulf mess, I also wonder if this will tip any struggling banks in this region into "Bank Failure Friday"?
Oh no wait...
I just the homepage of MSN.COM...
Headlines: "What you missed this weekend"
TOPICS...
- "Little Orphan Annie" comic discontinued
- Horns to stop at World Cup
- Who took home a "Tony Award"
Thanks for setting me straight guys!
I thought I might have missed something
Tibet is full of rare metals and FRESH WATER!
Wonder why China is not letting go of it?
About Afghan minerals - not new story. People of the region know. I, for one, always thought so.
They need capital and know-how.
If only dumb talibans stop F&*king their own people.
Canada(India)
Anon @ 9.03
"They need capital and know-how."
Well, at least that is what they will be told by the Americans or whoever else. It always starts this way. Promise of development. Huh.
We know how it ends though.
Ben,
Did you notice where the high on the E-mini stopped dead in its tracks?
I am changing my view on the bank closures a bit after having seen this chart. If I am missing something let me know:We can probably stop with the Bank Failure Counts
@Nic
You're not missing anything there...
The only important thing is how much ass is getting kicked...
McHappy,
I did!, didn't get a chance to get back to you over the weekend, I'm thinking perhaps EWI's counts are a little too focused on this as a certain impluse, they presented some pretty bearish counts on Friday, but open to the corrective counts though. Lets see where the rest of the week takes us.
Nic, 9:18
but aren't you tired of that kind of "analysis"?
knowing anything at all about banks, and the considering all the changes with bank policy, reserve requirements, fractional reserve lending, etc, over the last 3 decades I draw quite a different conclusion about the total volume of banks going down and it's "meaning" or lack thereof.
morning! will get coffee and come back... with anecdotal news.
I am tired McH ...
So are Mutual Fund Mondays really dead or are we going down to close last nights gaps?
I am laughing reading clusterstock. The entire Afghan commodity find isn't enough to bail out Fannie & Freddie.
I might add that there were something like 9k banks that failed in the 30's as I'm to understand, and 4,000 of them came in 1933, so by that standard, it's hardly time yet to be saying not to look at bank closures, seems to me we are right on track. Further, lets not forget that more bank closures can fuel more bank closures, and further, it helps reinforce a lack of lending by other banks....your best bet right now is to keep your own banks balance sheet as clean as possible, much bigger boost to the book to be selected by FDIC as the takeover bank and snapping up any deposits left at these closed banks vs. lending out to Joe and Jane for their McMansion. This is to say nothing of the likely fact of FDIC insolvency. They don't even have enough to cover the deposits at the top 3 banks, but I know I know, no possible way the top 3 ever go under.
By the time this is all over, there will only be one or two banks left standing...
Therfore, in the Great Depression of 2070, they'll only have to report 1 bank closing...
Green shoots!
Yesterday while on the freeway and roads briefly, i saw more new cars (un-license-plated) than I have seen in a year, at least.. on the freeway, there were even two is side by side lanes..
Next, I awoke in the middle of the night, checked finviz, rolled my eyes, then checked various news sources.. so, the news was all bad.. If we have learned anything, isn't it that bad news correlates to rising stock prices?
now i've got that "Stuck in the Middle of You" song in my head again..
internals this morning do not favor the bulls, but it's still the J Hour, so we'll see....
Big Up Andy T.
Slide 5.
One Love,
I-Man
Whipsaw market roasts bears...
"For the past two months the market has begun to swing between panic and greed. Robert McHugh reports that we have had eight 90% down days and five 90% up days - very unusual, and not conducive to a continued rise."
another great NLY post: On Turning A Mountain Into a Mole Hill
We’ve made no secret of our love for the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Flow of Funds report. The only thing more amazing than the impressive volume of data in the release is the lack of coverage it receives by the financial media, who basically report the directional move in household net worth (it rose by $1 trillion to $54.6 trillion), and then move on to something else. We suppose the rest of the 125 page report doesn’t make for very entertaining television.
yeah, slide 5 could be working for sure this week, but there are other slides in there that look just as probable, really tough call right here.
the bp candles are making sense..
>> By the time this is all over, there will only be one or two banks left standing...
Possible reality show titles:
- "So You Think You Can Bank"
- "Wall Street's Got Talent"
- "Fed Factor"
- "Real Wives of Central Bankers"
- "American Financier"
I forget which slide it was...
But FWIW, I like the slide that takes it down to 1005 for the bounce... (whichever wave scenario that is)...
LOL wunsacon. I like it. Could happen in this crazy world.
Morning all from Seattl......I mean, Minneapolis. What happened to summer? It's April again, the real one this time.
We're going to get a day (don't know if it's today or tomorrow), that it looks like the dollar is going to go into full phase consolidation)...
I'm expecting it to "look" or actually be slightly technically broken down (then reverse back hard when nobody is looking)...
Probably where equities are at that point will be where the SPX wave completes...
Right no I'm leaning more towards 1109-1120 than any of the other scenarios...
just looked at fxe and uup.. absurd..
a wild story from Realtor Jim!
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2010/06/13/ugly/#comments
Wunsacon,
Was it you who was asking for EW book recommendations last week?
In any case, I believe one of the suggestions was "Mastering Elliott Wave" by Neely. I found a free download whilst poking about the web...might be worth a look to see if it's useful to you before dropping $60 or more on the hard copy. Here's the link:
http://www.forexablog.com/mastering-elliot-wave-by-glenn-neely-and-eric-hall.html
Click on the "Download Here" link and it'll take you to RapidShare, then click for the free user download...might take a few minutes. Comes as a PDF file.
IW
Liquidity levels remain in contraction.
well, EWI said their super bear count couldn't be invalidated unless we went over 1105 S&P cash....I'm going to assume their count is busted at this point, despite only hitting 1103 so far....
XRT seems to have broken out with a gap up today.. if this holds, who can argue?
XLF, on the other hand, is the laggard again.. bumping up against overhead mid-point of BBs. RSI still under 50..
We really should be holding our breathe here.. this is basically do or die time..
ha ha from Taleb: Many are so unoriginal they need to study history to find mistakes to repeat.
spy.. money flow still negative and it hopped above the mid-line of BB chart on today's open. neat trick!
well....now it's broken.
Yikes. Cold steel?
@Nic
I am tired as well. I don't care which way we go at this point - down preferred - make up your mind.
1105.67 looks like it was just broke - 1105.77.
I'm working on my A-B-C now. Looking for the gap to get filled at 1115 - maybe a push up to 1120's. This is some cold steel.
The positives for bears is minor 3 has not started. The negative: we could be looking at 1150.
Manny, buy TLT more or wait? where is leftback? damn football..
DP
@Anon: I think I'll sit tight and wait, watch, if you will.
Maybe it's because CV is shopping for some 55 gallon steel drums...
Maybe I should switch to polyethylene... :-)
Anyone else watching JNK?
1150 would be a real gift, I'm still skeptical we can get that high but 1120's seems almost "easy"....as if there is such a thing.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/france-wows-skeptics-with-a-100-billion-euro-austerity-plan-503471.html?tickers=udn,uup,%5Eftse,tlt,tbt
"While France's credit rating so far has remained under relatively light criticism, as compared to many other Eurozone nations, the nation's budget deficit this year isn't pretty at 8% of GDP.
The government appeared slow to introduce austerity measures aimed at correcting France's long-term unsustainable spending path.
Now they've taken a large step in proving the skeptics wrong, announcing a three-year budget plan aimed at bringing France's budget deficit down to 3% of GDP by 2013."
OK...I know, I know...the sun will come up in the west before France cuts its socialist budget...but let's assume they do..it appears France, Germany, Greece, Britain, Portugal, Spain, and etc....will all be under austerity budgets..not to mention Iceland, Eastern Europe, and of all things, maybe even the US...
Where is the global economy headed? Will we have ZIRP forever?
you know we really should, as a group, have the dummy playbook down by now.
Retail sales horrible last week, buy all the retailers you can on Friday in anticipation of a big rally.
if housing starts are bad this week, but all the homebuilders you can get your hands on.
the more banks that fail on friday, the more you should buy monday.
etc etc.
I'd probably take a short here, feels like the high is in for today.
from afraid to trade on spx
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/quick-upside-resistance-levels-to-watch-on-sp500/
Just looking for a test of gap support at 1095, maybe a move down to 1090 to close the gap.
@McF
I agree...
I'm targeting the 1120's now...
On the possible lookout tho for one of those 20 point collapses that retrace right away...
Lest anyone not know that these markets are 'rigged' by algos...
I think the real problem is sentiment. The credit crunch is too recent in people's memories then followed by the flash crash mean market participants turn very bearish very fast. Once everyone stops expecting the market to crash imminently it will fall again.
Interesting article in the Telegraph today: Investors are betting on a Black Monday-style collapse, BoE warns
There is an Irish proverb: The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs
just checked jnk, again.. as well as hyg:lqd.. everything i look at pretty much jumped the resistance level from Friday.. cuz it's magic monday, i guess..
It's like effin Casablanca...
Rick: "Put it on number 23"...
23 hits...
Rick: "keep it there"
23 hits again
Rick: Now go to the window and never come back...
@Nic
"Investors are betting on a Black Monday-style collapse, BoE warns
There is an Irish proverb: The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs"
It'll never happen... DL says it won't...
It's always MONDAY somewhere... (or something like that)...
Doest that mean if it happens on a Tuesday, the people who said a "Black Monday" would never happen are right?
Just asking...
Or like Bernanke said over the weekend...
"The Fed DOES not intervene in market actions"
Clever use of present tense... What about the past & future?
"I did not have sexual relations with THAT woman" (He must have been referring to Hilary when he said that")...
The higher they rise the farther they fall.
Banks and financials are toast.
Dont be fooled.
I agree, financials and the economy are toast but the stock market is still awash with Govt money loaned V cheaply to same banks.
Nasdaq now back above 200day sma and if it takes out June highs its a dbl bottom.
3-month T-bills at 5 bps... Someone in the know is scared.
Longs should be a trade only. Don't be fooled.
Whats "the economy"?
:)
All I do is watch tape all day, and speculate on future price movement.
I could give a shit about the rest.
And I'm being dead serious.
World Cup rally is on, will last long enough to make a right shoulder and cause considerable ursine discomfort.
Of course it's not going to go on forever. Watch the yen crosses.
And my read on the tape, is that its about to go down down baby...
(yo street in a range rover)
Altidore,
I would have fouled you. But I couldn't catch you....
Thanks, LB, laughing. I-Man, I am with you but feeling crazy for it..
Stock Market?
What stock market?
This is the stock market...
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/exchanges_and_trading/Articles/2593318/Top-25-Most-Favored-Stocks-In-High-Frequency-Trading.html
Jozy looked great... Should have put Edson up front to start the match for some shock and awe...
But Findley does have some wheels on him.
Speculate on THAT I-Man...
When I-Man is brave, you had better be fearful.
Or something like that...
I'm looking for a drop to mid 1080's before one final push up to 1115-1125.
interesting list, CV, thanks for posting.. i'm printing it out and plan to review them individually.. altho some i have no interest in playing with.. C, for example.
Karen,
I am looking at your top !
hello?
Hola amigo, que tal?
Where's AMEN today?
Interesting post at www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2010/06/14/tech-talk-for-monday-june-14-2010/
seasonal trades in oil, gold.
U.S. stimulus programs winding down.
BEAR.
Seems like 1110 is holding as resistance. So is the current trading range 1110-1041 until one of these are breached?
Dont know if this was posted here or not, but its a really cool piece of technology:
http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/mundial/sudafrica-2010/calendario-english.html
Ouch another Moody's downgrade for Greece
Hi Nic,
It is bad news as for Moody's downgrade for Greece. But it is known news. I was reading this article which seems to give more weight to China's effect on us:
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/1005/document/us0510.pdf
Hope you will like it.
http://www.markets.fallondpicks.com/2010/06/weekly-review-of-stockchartscom.html?
some interesting, to say the most, perspectives in the above link!
Ten Mexican Police Officers Killed In Ambush -Officials
1:17 PM ET | Dow Jones
Next stop 1080's.
Rise to 1109-1130.
Open trap door.
@mcHappy
Frankly, I don't think it's going to be that elaborate...
Looking a little more macro (outside the waves)... Tying in Nic & Amens comments...
1. Look - If Moody's is downgrading Greece, then next comes Spain... Euro has had a nice bounce here but it can't defy gravity too long... They need to get the Euro down to 1.15 for this cycle to get some decent kind of base to hold the summer and not be in weekend meetings all summer long... Europeans like their vacations...
2. 1110 is resistance... I don't expect it to hold on a daily close... So a run up to say 1121, then a pullback intraday under 1110 is about all I think we can hope for...
The clock is ticking on this one... IMO...
After that, they'll get this thing down to 1005 quick, buy it all back just as quick, and then sell the next lot to the momos buying the July bank earnings...
Let Dick Bove hold the bag...
I mean... Right now, we've just spent the last two hours painting the 5 minute candle gap of June 3rd...
It's not going to spend 2 hours to close a gap and just roll over lazily to the 1080's, is it?
Is it?
How the hell do I know?
Was that downgrade for their soccer team?
Thanks Trading diary!
I'm changing my 1:20 to low 1090's, basically one more push lower then one last push to shake out the remaining shorts.
1219.8-1040.78 .382 retracement is 1109. A push above this gets the gap closed and shakes out any shorts. Andy's chart notes made reference to this but given the length of time since the last 'bottom' (May 25/1040.78) and given that a new high has now been put in above 1105.67 I am working on the premise we are in a C wave to end minor 2 with minor one lasting 21 days and today being 13th day since then. Soemtime between today and THursday should see a magnificent decline. If not, I dunno.
Didn't see your reply, CV, before writing my 1:51.
New Pivot list:
1090...
1082...
1078...
1072...
The most "bullish" outcome I can see would be a run up to 1116 or so, but I believe thats it for any "Right Shoulder" to this pattern.
We're already in the shoulder, and have probably already exhausted it.
I see AT mentioned the fact that some wavers are counting the big move off the highs as a leading diagonal, that's an awful idea for a count imo, I had to go back and look to see if it was a rule violation to have a truncated fifth wave as part of a LD, it doesn't break a rule, but can anyone actually find an example of that?
keeping things simple, right now I favor that right shoulder getting formed.....B wave iow.
"Are government bonds, or even higher paying corporate issues, a “safe haven” in today’s market environment? The best forex indicators tell a story of immediate cross-border shifts of capital. The huge flow of funds has driven the yield of 10-year Treasury Bonds down near 3%, just a bit above the low levels back in October of 2008. If rates were to rise, then values for the securities would have to decline to accommodate the market re-pricing. The great Bond Bull market for the past 30 years would come to a close. "
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/06/corporate-bonds-the-next-safe-haven.html#more
Beware of the "droop" of the right shoulder...
Doesnt let longs out, doesnt let shorts in.
The definitive trend change.
all you need to know is that cstr went red..
I-man,
you could be exactly right there, this looks weak
I'm expecting one more push up in to the close and it should be painful for any shorts. However, when it is over they all fall down like toy soldiers.
If we are ending a 4th wave of C and 5=1 we should be looking for 1127.57. However, while I am mentally preparing for this possiblity, I am not expecting it.
Yelnick?
That dude owes me money!
I will not mind being 100% incorrect though!
Kenny has us in the A wave of a leading diagonal as another option, that count looks ok, his alternate is also in a B wave....either way...if we are patient and quick enough a big short opp is coming our way within the month.
now we just need some anon to show up to tell us all how it would not be wise to short and we should be "all set"
I would feel alot better about all of this if 1090 is not respected at all on the way down...
Just a straight whoosh down to the 1082.
Anon said...
it would not be wise to short
dollar down, market up.. look at inv relationship between uup ticks and spx/indu/compq (take your pick, they are all the same!)
chop and overlap, this move down is not impulsive....
I-Man.. i want to go to 1070, okay? paints a pretty rev h&s on the spx.
$vix could be that abandoned baby i've been wanting..
"Basically, he argues that the key level to watch in the market is S&P 1,100. If the market rallies above that level, it has a strong chance of resuming the longer term uptrend we've seen over the past year or so. However, if the market continues to stall at 1,100 (as it has previously), then the bears are in control. This level becomes even more interesting when you consider it's currently right around where the market is trading and this could be a potentially pivotal point."
Read more: http://www.marketfolly.com/#ixzz0qr4LUUPH
@Ben, what's your thots on BP. That div sure looks good. Oil coated birds, not so much?
Buy on fear?
"Is there enough liquidity in the market?". safehaven.com/ariticle/17138/
Same level as Mar.09
1098 should cap this move off 1092.
Karen,
what's with these guys that think they are getting all technical by stating numbers like 1,100?
they got nothing on survivor capital crew.
Anon,
BP? Have at it my friend. Yes the div does look good, but do you know if it's going to be paid?
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't tempted but it's not for me, too many unknowns, and going long here is fighting the larger trend at work right now, perhaps BP can bottom before this decline is over, I'm just not willing to put money on that though.
good luck with it if you go that route.
BP looks like shit. I wouldnt touch it with Leftback's hand.
Yeah Paraguay!
i just looked at the three month t-bill and it's an uh-oh... down 21.43%
Remember that 1087 question from last week karen?
Looks like its going to be our close today.
I don't know why Wanger's name crossed my mind.
prashant, ....pretty late over there eh?
lol, 1097....do we all think of Wanger now when the 1097 appears?
The same disconnect is happening today. As the market moves higher the NYSE TRIN moves higher also. Someone's selling into every pump.
Probably the same hand that does the pump...
I hardly ever think of Wanger.
Can I be paid in gold, please?
Hehehe...
Ya McF, its 1 AM here. Music is on, Football is also on and Italy is losing. Life is good, I guess.
Very funny on Forex Live. "Euro will really tank, if this result holds up"...Lol...
ben -
it's "magnetic" dontcha know?
The Italian press will crucify them if they don't scrape a draw.
If I had scored the penalty they would have made me Pope.
Zinedine Zidane says...
They didn't make me pope when I head butted Materazzi...
I-Man, CV is not paying us enuf!
random: I forgot how great an album Automatic For The People was...R.E.M.
Rising window...shut
Dow is down 125 from the day's high....
Downgrades do matter?
Try Not to Breathe.
BinT
Their poker face had a tell.
@karen (3:33)
No pay raises... Bad week at the track... :-)
p-p-p poker face....
Shit. Italy scores.
I'm just waiting for the ramp in to the final 8 minutes.
Well, if the bulls couldn't pump today, when can they pump it?
But, hey, virtually NO chance of a double dip.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/odds-of-a-double-dip-recession/#comments
Typical Recovery says...
NO chance of a double dip
Double Dip says...
No chance of a typical recovery...
No chance of a double dip.
Even though our own most reliable ECRI indicator has turned down.
naufalsanaullah
Absolutely no volume on rally from last Tues's lows... Selling off from 200DMA/maj resistance around 1105 roday... Look out below
less than a minute ago via UberTwitter
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zerohedge
61% Underfunded Illinois Teachers Pension Fund Goes For Broke, Becomes Next AIG-In-Waiting By Selling Billions In CDS http://bit.ly/9EDZON
<a href="http://www.consumerindexes.com/>consumer metrics institute - June 13, 2010 - Consumer Demand Slowdown Gets Even Weirder:
</a>
"What is troubling to our eyes is that the shape of the current curve is clearly different from both the 2006 and 2008 events, which were similar except for scale. Put bluntly, our recent past experience with contraction events can offer no predictions as to where we are headed now. Something is structurally different this time.
"That said, what is different this time? As we have mentioned in previous posts, consumers are clearly more cautious/concerned about debt.
"All of this points to structural changes in the aggregate behavior of U.S. consumers, perhaps even the 'sea-change' suggested by Stephanie Pomboy last September during an interview with Alan Abelson in Barron’s.
"Regardless of the underlying behavioral reasons, the the 'V' shaped bounce that we experienced in both 2006 and 2008 is less likely this time around. Instead of a hit-and-run blizzard, we'll probably see a siege of bone chilling fog that long overstays its welcome."
consumer metrics institute - June 13, 2010 - Consumer Demand Slowdown Gets Even Weirder:
speaking of double dip, David Rosenberg notes today that he spent the weekend with Faber, Roubini and Gary Schilling and stated that none of them really thought the economy would "double dip"
so yeah, next time you hear sentiment is too negative, you've got a guy nicknamed Dr. Doom, and another who stole the nickname (Roubini is not the original Dr. Doom) and they aren't calling for a double dip.....
seems to me everyone is lined up on the same side of the ledger on this one...
Ramp is moved to the am.
Illinois Teachers Pension Fund, synonym for YIELD PIG.
What a big fucking mess...
I'm off for lunch, catch yall later.
here's a question...are there any public anythings in Illinois that aren't Bankrupt?
CV off to the gym
C-yall in the wrap...
Amen - It's US OPEN week...
AmenRa's corner is the 7th hole at Pebble Beach this week...
Italy, France and England all off to a disappointing start.
Beware of writing off any team in the first week of the tournament.
After the first game the pressure shifts from the big teams onto the rest.
Andy -
You don't yet understand the nuances of the game at this level. All the big teams can underperform and yet survive a poor game.
Football is episodic and unpredictable. On any given day even a weak national team can beat the best in the world, if the woodwork and the bounce are not on your side. A massive emotional and physical effort can lift a team on a given day, but is hard to reproduce over three or more games. This is why we have the group stages, to even things out a little, and to test the strength of the squads. Few teams play up to their potential, it is all about survival and moving on. Ask Italy and France.
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