A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection
I'm still here...
SPXBullish long day (confirmed bearish thrusting). 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is still waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 SMA and above the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1064.88). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace (barely). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is now 88.40).
VIXBearish long day (yesterday must have been a plastic hammer). Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Still below the weekly 3LB mid and below 30. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.
GOLDBullish long day (denied harami). Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1188.60).
EURUSDBullish long day. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Back above the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (thanks GS). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1924).
JNKBullish day. Tested the 23.6% retrace (passed) but still below the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).
GSBullish day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).
WTIBullish long day (denied bearish harami). Trading above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Tested the 50.0% retrace at 75.69 (passed). New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 74.61).
10YR YIELDBullish long day. Midpoint is above 10EMA. Tested 38.2% retrace (passed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.58).
46 comments:
Ra, as always, thanks for the 3lb-rap;
I liked this from Richard Russell tonight:
"We're in the area that I call the "dead zone." I've been here before, and it's not easy to write in the dead zone. The dead zone tends to appear after a period of dramatic and clearly-defined action. After such periods the market will often act like an exhausted prize fighter who has been knocked down to the canvas. He gets to his feet, but he is unsteady on his feet, and he playing for time -- until his head clears. He's fending off the other fighter as best he can, and he's depending on his experience. Will he make it to the end of the round? But what kind of shape is he in for the next round?"
Hard to post on a day when CV whips out the integral calculus on us. And I thought he was going to try to explain the volume expansion of the gulf oil spill. But noooooo....anyway, there are areas of the country that are much easier to understand.....
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- California lawmakers are poised to miss a constitutional deadline to send a fiscal 2011 budget to Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger as they remain at odds on erasing a $19.1 billion deficit.
State law requires the Legislature to send a spending plan to the governor by midnight June 15, a deadline they’ve met only five times in the past 33 years. The governor is supposed to sign the budget by the start of the fiscal year on July 1, a date met just 10 times in the last three decades.
“In all likelihood, we’re not going to have a budget plan forwarded on to the governor by the constitutional deadline,” said Controller John Chiang, a Democrat. “It’s imperative that the governor and the Legislature act promptly, as we have significant risks coming before the state of California if they fail to take appropriate action quickly.”
The recession has driven the state’s unemployment rate to 12.6 percent in April and cut into tax revenue. California’s Democrat-dominated Legislature and Schwarzenegger, a Republican in his last year in office, have sought to close the budget gaps that emerged, a task made harder by a legal requirement for support from two-thirds of lawmakers to raise taxes or pass annual spending plans.
A group of legislators from the Assembly and Senate is drafting a spending plan. The panel hasn’t reached a consensus on how to erase the deficit.
...I owe you
You owe me
We're just one big (dysfunctional) familleeee....
State won't pay
Car goes away
Maybe one day...I'll move.
Did anyone see Cramer? He is telling ppl to sell into rallies tomorrow, said today's rally was based on nothing.
Kudlow admits a recession, Cramer tells clients to sell rallies.
It must be time to buy dips!!!!!!
Don't hate me, hate the market :)
Larry Kudlow admits we are in a recession right now? I find that very hard to believe. A clip/article?
@Nic. Some of Cramer's "macro" calls have actually been 'ok.' He seems to be 50/50 in that regard. Not exactly an "auto fade."
Most good traders have "intuition" about which way the market will ebb and flow, and he was certainly a decent trader in his day.
My gut says to sell tomorrow's rally as well....
How about North Korea? That was pretty cool the way they scored that goal at the end. You could tell Brazil was overlooking those guys...
You think that guy who scored against the Brazilians has some good stuff coming his way?
The Larry Kudlow quote is from TBP
Cramer commentary here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10784159/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-a-baffling-rally-update-1.html
I agree that we prolly will sell off tomorrow but having broken a range to the upside and the poor sentiment we have had for some time I find another flash crash less likely.
I think we tank again just when everyone thinks we might be alright again ... and we aren't quite there yet.
I already forgot what you said anyway.
Nic, the Kudlow post says he doesn't currently see a double dip recession, and to try and defend him about what he said when in 2008 is hilarious.
There are so many bloggers talking "double dip" now. Kudlow and Cramer aren't quite bullish either.
Can a descent in equity markets happen when pretty much "everyone" is expecting it?
...
FWIW, I'm slowly selling my NE again (bought just 4 days ago). I'm worried about two things.
First, that the BP disaster could be so much worse (than my own prior expectations) that voters decide they prefer:
(a) the short term pain of $200/oil, Pickens Plan implementation, and a switch to Chevy Volts and Nissan Leafs *pronto*
over
(b) oil addiction as usual.
Second, that "new builds" of drilling rigs purportedly scheduled to become available in the next 2 years will drive down day rates.
Maybe I'm being "scared out of my longs" here, contrary to Peter Lynch's wisdom that "the key to making money in a bull market is not to get scared out of your positions". But, I don't know how much stock to place in that, since the guy's entire career was spent during the Age of Debt/Credit Expansion (the run-up to Peak Credit).
Decisions, decisions...
The entire cramer article, oh brother, what is with that guy? How many people still watch his show?
So what, the news isn't moving the market like it normally does? That's sort of a new one. But, do not worry, as Cramer will always find you a bull market. And you better listen to his "preaching" because outside of those stocks that Cramer has narrowed down for you (among the 'thousands' in his head) "it's anyone's guess". I mean, seriously, if you don't buy Cramers picks you are just straight up gamblin bitches!
Anyway, it's all coming together for me now. JC has a book out about getting back to even, and yes indeed, his magical CANDIES portfolio contains many stocks that he told you to buy at the highs! But no worries because man, that portfolio looks "sweet", or that's what it says anyway.
I'm can't give him credit for bearish sentiment, he's loving C in the lightning round.
Lets just keep in mind the lightning bolt is the shape of the recovery, left hand translated.
I think it's important to keep in mind that sentiment was at very bullish extremes, in many cases at all time records in March and April, this was just 13 months off the worst market sell-off in decades and we remain with a highly fragile economy and a global debt bubble in the early stages of exploding. I wouldn't even hardly call bearish sentiment anywhere near extreme right now but regardless of that, what is the idea that we can have bullish extremes such as what we saw just two months ago but we can't have that on the bearish side, that bearish sentiment is somehow so high right now that we wouldn't go MUCH lower?
I also think in the near term we are headed up, we all have similar targets, but we will see 800 this year on the S&P imo.
If you are confused and you know it, clap your hands. *clap*clap*
If you know how minor 2 will end, clap your hands. *clap*clap*
If you are confused and you know it, and not sure how to show it, just wait for the end of minor 2 and clap your hands. *clap*clap*
Was it the I who said 1116?
Ben,
I know you are doubting the EWI counts (FWIW I am doubting everything right now except the end is nearer than it was yesterday - ha) BUT did you notice the NASDAQ chart from MOnday night? Specifically the 'OR'. Have you noticed where the NAZ closed today and a certain gap that was filled on a couple of other charts?
I'm patient now (not by choice) and desperately wanting.
I suppose I just have last summer fresh in my memory. Making money the hard way each week counter-trend instead of the easy way.
I think we get better levels to sell than this ... my 2c.
I'm clapping here boss....(Cool Hand Luke)
I do think the MSM is coming around to my thinking that this gulf spill will be momentously bad, as I wrote a while back, I've spent many good days on the beach in La, Ms, and Fla, and grew up about 3 hours from the gulf. The problem is that the residual from the oil will be around for years. This aspect is what I think depresses the region.
Merely one more thing to keep us out of a true recovery...The Gulf, higher taxes, president still on the campaign trail, CV pulling higher math out of his, er, head, and poor old Roubini is now fixated on Europe.
Oh, well...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aetIt8bWebm0
Russia Prepares to Buy Canada, Australia Dollars for First Time
"The Canadian and Australian dollars have been among the best performers in the past 12 months as investors speculated a recovering global economy would increase demand for the countries’ raw materials. The Canadian dollar has gained 10 percent against the U.S. currency and 23 percent versus the euro during that period. The Australian dollar is up 8.6 percent and 21 percent, respectively"
...It appears some,when seeing that the emperor has no clothes, must take some time to believe it......
Do you all feel better after Obama's speech? I didn't find anything of substance to reassure me. Started well, ended fluffy.
"Vital Day for the S&P 500". Gartman on Russell. www.moneytalks.net
"Warren Buffet and Richard Russell at war in the markets. For now, our bet is with Mr. Russell".
Kobe came to play tonight.
@BinT
I only have time to think about calculus between heaves and pitches of bailed hay...
@Nic
Obama's speech on BP? (Beyond Petroleum - LOL)...
We already knew that BP were significant contributors to the record $750-million war chest of Barack Obama's 2007-08 campaign...
And as for Rahm Emanuel?
As a House member, Emanuel had lived the last five years rent-free in a D.C. apartment of Democratic colleague Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut and her husband, Stanley Greenberg...
For an ordinary American, that would likely raise some obvious tax liability questions...
But as with Tim Geithner, when has that ever been a problem? Lately...
Anyway, Greenberg's consulting firm was a prime architect of BP's recent rebranding drive as a "green" petroleum company, down to green signs and the slogan "Beyond Petroleum." (as we've all seen)...
Greenberg's company is also closely tied to a sister Democratic outfit -- GCS, named for the last initials of Greenberg, James Carville, another Clinton advisor, and Bob Shrum, )John Kerry's 2004 campaign manager)...
According to published reports, GCS received hundreds of thousands of dollars in political polling contracts in recent years from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee...
Probably just a crazy coincidence... But you'll never guess who was the chairman of that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dispensing those huge polling contracts to his kindly rent-free landlord...
And the beat goes on...
@Andy,
I saw your question over at Dan's site, I don't have a disqus profile and don't want to set one up (one more password) but, it's on page 135 and is under Retracements:
"A leading diagonal in wave one position is typically followed by a zigzag retracement of 78.6%."
Ben. I just don't have that passage in my version. I've now more than skimmed through Ch. 4 and I'm just not seeing it. I may just be missing it....my wife always yells at me for missing shit right in front of my eyes....
The reason I'm interested in that assertion is that Neely suggests that a Wave-2 terminus should NOT exceed a 62% retrace....thus, I'm keen to register direct disagreements between the two books and just keep things in the back of my mind.
Andy, I'm reading this one out of tenth edition
the Neely comments on Wave 2's are interesting, I wasn't aware he was that strict, EWP has this right below on page 135, which something of a further contrast given that they will allow for much larger wave 2 retracements:
"The ratios shown in Figures 4-1 and 4-2 (which show basic .382 and .618 levels) are merely tendencies. Unfortunately, that is where most analysts place an inordinate focus because measuring retracements is easy. Far more precise and reliable, however, are relationships between alternate waves, or lengths unfolding in the same direction,....."
A treat for Hugh fans
Hugh Hendry Eclectica May Newsletter
@ BnT
have you checked out www.theoildrum.com?
e.g., this guy, dougr, apparently knowledgeable oil field hand, suggests the reason the top kill failed and was cut short is that there is/are downhole failure(s). cutting off the riser and letting more oil escape helped relieve the down hole pressure through the leaks eroding the well casing. if the relief wells don't intercept the drill bore in time, his scenario has the seabed around the casing eroding away, without the seabed lateral support the 450 ton bop causes the well casing to collapse, and the whole casing could be blown out of the well bore = a blown hole tapping straight into the oil reservoir. worst cast scenario - a nightmare
72bat - that is horrific ...
72bat
There was an article earlier today referring to that same situation. Somehow it was removed from the site it was on. Not only will the sea floor collapse but it will create a tidal wave when it does. Don't know if the research is valid but the Gulf states better hope not.
I know a lot about dirt, geology and drilling. As dougr says, there are also likely problems further down the hole, at the very bottom, as well as further up the pipe, which he elaborates on. The pipe was never really secured to the earth.
Nuking it is an option, and hopefully someone is building a device to be used. Drill down 1000 to 2000 feet next to the well and drop it down. After the device is completed the drilling would take at most a week, and the geology of that part of the ocean floor is pretty uniform and deep. The well is over 10,000 feet below the seafloor, which is over a mile down.
The problem with that "solution" is that it may make future recovery of the oil that is left in the reservoir more dangerous and costly. BP could then come back and "blame" the government, the only people who could use a nuke, for ruining their well. This is the conversation that is going on behind the scenes in my opinion.
It's not crazy. They can and do make small yield nukes, this one would have to be long and thin, in order to make it down the drilled hole. It would have to be designed and built for the job, and the ultimate solution would be dependent on gravity working, dropping 1000-2000 ft worth of seafloor onto the hole.
Why is it so hard for people to believe that it could be a solution? Yes, it sounds crazy. So does a well that is at the best case going to be leaking 60k barrels a day for two more months. Best case remember. The wells that are being drilled to intercept are also going to be depending on the integrity of the casing at the bottom, which there is serious doubt about.
It would not be used on the sea floor, it would have to be used 1000-2000 ft below the seafloor in order to be effective.
Colbert, in his clip made the same assumption that most people are making, they want to blow up the top of the well, that would make things worse, and should not even be considered.
this may be the best thread ever! but it will take me half the night to get thru the links..
BinT @ 6:44, i loved your intro!! CV, i may be the strongest, best ditch digger you've ever seen (if the pay is right!) Nic, you are prolly the greatest girl on the internet : )
Ben, I'm missing the game tonight but have a date for Thursday.. saw one great play when picking up my to go pizza!
Andy, i can only commiserate with your wife on your blindness... perhaps if you called her Baby more often she wouldn't yell at you, though.
Hmmm sounds like more EURUSD problems are about to come to the forefront: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/imf-head-flying-spain
IMF Head Flying To Spain
IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan is flying to Spain "to discuss global economic developments with the Prime Minister, and to consult with him on developments in Spain, including the government's economic policies and reforms" according to Reuters. The last time the IMF sent a delegation to a country was on April 15th when the IMF together with representatives from the EU and ECB took a jaunt over to Athens. A month later the country was insolvent. We can't wait for the official denial that this visit has nothing to do with the frozen Spanish liquidity market (like Greece), and that there is nothing to worry about (like Greece), only to end up with a full blown IMF rescue package of the Pyrenean country (just like Greece).
Reuters article: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWBT01398520100615
Ben
Dead zone= a monthly 3LB reversal down followed by the wait for confirmation :-)
there was an interesting comment (about quakes moving north) in this so cal quake posting by PK:
http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/06/socal_quake_clu.html?
i'm not sure i agree with the fellow but i'll continue to keep track.. Costco loves this stuff.. they put together all sorts of provision pkgs.
oh, AR, i meant to comment on your wrap! I hated it! if you would just reverse every bullish for a bearish, and every bearish for a bullish.. i'd be good.. with one exception, gold : )
Karen
Tell me about it. I wasn't too thrilled looking at the charts either. But I keep in mind that it's time to paint the tape for 2Q, a Russell rebalance on 6/25 and an insane amount of BS from the MSM.
Wow. Missed this earlier: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1286480/EU-chief-warns-democracy-disappear-Greece-Spain-Portugal.html
Nightmare vision for Europe as EU chief warns 'democracy could disappear' in Greece, Spain and Portugal
Democracy could ‘collapse’ in Greece, Spain and Portugal unless urgent action is taken to tackle the debt crisis, the head of the European Commission has warned.
In an extraordinary briefing to trade union chiefs last week, Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso set out an ‘apocalyptic’ vision in which crisis-hit countries in southern Europe could fall victim to military coups or popular uprisings as interest rates soar and public services collapse because their governments run out of money.
The stark warning came as it emerged that EU chiefs have begun work on an emergency bailout package for Spain which is likely to run into hundreds of billions of pounds.
"the wilderness of mirrors" is the perfect compliment to my "blinded by the light" nightmares.. thanks nic!
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