Morning Audibles 6.16.10 - All The News That's Fit to Print



Cramer
"This market is stupid. And it is hated for a very good reason. The market seems rapacious, arbitrary, capricious and downright ridiculous. It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."




Kudlow: "Double Dip"??? Is that like doing TWO lines of coke?




OBAMA TAKES CHARGE
"Obama seeks to take charge of BP disaster"
...so we have that going for us!


"U.S. stocks rise on inflation" (Market Watch)
...oh really? Let's have HYPERINFLATION then so we can have DOW 36,000!





Art Hogan
The index, used as a gauge of the broad market by market professionals, finished above its 200-day moving average at 1,107, "a clear signal that things have gotten better," said Art Hogan

...things have gotten better!!! All with about 3 ticks in the SPX!!!


Hulk Hogan
I can do more lines than you Kudlow!


Doug Roberts
"There are rumblings the austerity plan may work," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research.com., of Europe's effort to stem its debt crisis...

"The panic from the euro-zone crisis has abated, with the likes of Spain and Ireland able to successfully tap the credit markets, supporting a move into riskier assets," according to analysts at Action Economics.


Meanwhile...

IMF head Dominique Strauss-Khan is flying to Spain "to discuss global economic developments with the Prime Minister, and to consult with him on developments in Spain, including the government's economic policies and reforms" according to Reuters. The last time the IMF sent a delegation to a country was on April 15th when the IMF together with representatives from the EU and ECB took a jaunt over to Athens. A month later the country was insolvent.


"Bet against us and you're going to lose your shirts"!



There's an Elephant In the Way... Still...

Or maybe not!? (from somewhere I read)...

"There is not a lot of liquidity in the market as a lot of major hedge-fund managers are on holiday"...

So that's it people... Good Luck with your trades! (I'm sure you're happy to have that "pattern matcher" technology to help you handle the workload)... That is, of course, when you can actually log-into and access your account...




 Pretty basic chart here, but it would seem to me that any time around now would be a nice time to give up pushing the upper boundaries of this price channel, and go down to establish a lower boundary right around 1090 (where a gap exists)... I mean, even BULLS ought to applaud that validation...



172 comments:

AmenRa said...

CV

Seems like 1110 is about to get violated.

Breaking news: Fannie & Freddie are going to be delisted from the NYSE.

Anonymous said...

@Amen and Ben:

"Eye of the financial storm". Todd Harrison at marketwatch.com

Doom and gloom or truth.

Calm before the storm?

McFearless said...

C,

That pic of Obama in the thread, it looks like him and Bush in one pic...am I right about that? Something is odd there.

Anonymous said...

McF, It is W & O together. Same shit.

Prashant

Anonymous said...

@Ben,

That Bush-Obama pic.

That's CV's way of saying, same old, same old.

McFearless said...

Andy,

I have to go out of town for a couple of days but when I get back I'll try to find the theorist letter I recall RP talking about the LD in, re: your other comment on Dan's site....I think it was from 05 or 06 but can't remember for sure. If I'm remembering correct he discussed it with some detail and might help explain the change in the book.

AmenRa said...

Housing Starts -10%
Incoming!!!

McFearless said...

I figured that was the message Prashant, lets put on The Who, meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

mcHAPPY said...

I'll be looking for a break of 1083.20 and 1077.74. Any difficulty to get through there would imply yet another push higher. Right now I can see this being 5 completed waves up or 3 waves up off the June 8th low and June 9th low all with variations. I can see this hitting 1120's and 1130's or I can see this crashing very hard. Any large gap at the open would lead me to believe this will be a minor 3 start fake-out (again) with one more push higher to 1120-high 1130 range.

Crazy crazy crazy days.

CV said...

@Amen

Quietly... That's the type of scenario I was expecting (sometime/somewhere)...

On these little "ramp jobs" (or crashes), I've been expecting to see GAPS getting left behind all over the place...

Remember that 10 min chart I put into the thread last week with all the OVERNIGHT crosses of the 200SMA?

That kind of thing...

There's a 10 min gap down near 1090...

I'd hardly be surprised at all to see the market go down and fill that today, then come rampaging up back to 1110...

Stop! Hammer time...

CV said...

@Anon

Anon would be correct...

Same old same old...

McFearless said...

Ra,

Wasn't it Ahab that has been saying to keep an eye on starts among some other housing data points going in to the summer?

CV said...

@McF

I think I was reading a comment over at Dan's talking about something like 87% of LD #1's eventually get taken out...

mcHAPPY said...

"Said one spray-painted sign along the president's Florida motorcade route earlier in the day, as Obama capped a two-day inspection tour of the region: "Obama you are useless.""

No arguments from mcHAPPY on this one. The guy feels like a variation of Tiger Woods to me. Let me explain:

Tiger used his clean cut wholesome image to make hundreds of millions in endorsements and sponsorships.

Obama used his oratory skills to fool hundreds of millions of voters in to hope and change through his leadership.

In the end both showed their true colours: Tiger is not wholesome and Obama is not a leader.

Anonymous said...

well here is some good news-

May Housing Starts Fall 10.0%; Building Permits Fall 5.9;

one has to wonder why the home builder sentiment was down- now we know-

nothing like an $8000 carrot to get someone to buy a depreciating asset

McFearless said...

C,

I don't think the LD is the correct count, I don't like a truncated fifth in there, in any event, even if it were right, the probability is way on your side right now to make money on that count.

That said, knowing that rule above about an LD in the first wave position could be extremely valuable.

McFearless said...

I meant to say the probability is not way on your side to make money on that count...I think people are forcing it....time will tell

Anonymous said...

and b22 @ 8:38-

yes- the observation was based on all the euphoria over the housing start numbers a few months ago- all tax credit induced- pulling those on the fence into the buying window when the credit was available-

what could happen but a hard fall- but who knows- maybe it will be seen as great market news- new tax credit sure to be right around the corner-

homebuilders and realtors will be clamoring for it soon enough

mcHAPPY said...

Ben,

Do you think the DXY high (88.586) could have been the end of a wave 3? That triangle before the last push higher could have been for a 5th wave to end 3. Wave 1 also went on much longer than anyone thought. Also, Ra has been looking for a test of 91 I believe.

Same can be said for the bottom of EUR/USD right now. The bottom could very easily be the end of a 3 rather than the end of a 5.

McFearless said...

McHappy,

I don't have a great count on the dollar right now b/c I've been out for a bit and not really focusing my efforts there, maybe over the weekend I can tackle it again, I've just been waiting for it to start to drop so I cold look at it again and figure out where to add.

Anonymous said...

In Oval Office Speech, Obama Says BP Will Pay

duh- no kidding- that's what the courts are for- right? I was in the car listening to that speech- and after it was done was wondering what was even said of any importance

Nic said...

Brilliant Brilliant post this morning CV.

Karen ... I am the second best girl here and one day you can teach me stocks XXX

Anonymous said...

and following up on Ra's comment-

Fannie and Freddie Announce Delisting From NYSE

just to be clear- you can still trade in these fine establishments (after all they have unlimited government support)-

Both companies stock, however, will continue to trade, but will be quoted on the Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board, according to the press release.

CV said...

@McF

Speaking of "statistics" (and that 87%)...

Last week, after the Lakers went up 2-1 in the series, I remember hearing a sportswriter say "I'm taking the Lakers to win the series because 87% of teams that win game 3 WIN in a series that goes 7 games"...

Then... before yesterdays game... Another sportswriter was saying he was taking the Celtics because "77% of the teams that win game 5 win a series that goes 7 games"...

LOL

CV predicts that the odds of winning Thursday's game (for EITHER team) are 50-50...

I know I'm going WAY out on a limb here :-)

Nic said...

My 2c is the Spain situation is the sleeper that is about to blow up ... spreads on spanish debt to bunds at record wide and IMF visiting today to "chat". Seems Mr Market is losing faith in the EU bazooka and has realised austerity is not good for growth.
I could be wrong but market has been distracted by BP and world cup and might suddenly realise there is a problem brewing.

Anonymous said...

austerity is not good for growth.

that got a chuckle out of me Nic(-:!!! However- it may save the country from ruin in the end-

the only problem- the consumers/citizens have to be on board

72bat said...

@ bob
from last night's thread
re your comments on a nuclear device to seal the well. if the nightmare scenario of a blown-out well bore comes to pass then a nuclear device might well be the lesser evil. i know next to nothing on the geology of the site, but am haunted by a vision of a nuclear device fracturing the strata and collapsing the well bore to stop the gushing flow, yet creating a permanent, massive seep zone which could never be sealed off.

mcHAPPY said...

@Nic

I've been looking for a fundamental reason to go down and that would probably be a great one.

From an EW perspective, this can go down hard at any time or it could grind a bit higher.

October 07-March 09 = 17 months
March 09-APril 10= 13 months

13/17= .765

April 26-May 25= 21 days
May 25-June 17= 16 days

16/21=.762

Last thing I heard from BAMInvestor before the free week ran out - June 18th next crash window.

What does all of this mean? Damned if I know.

Anonymous said...

this makes me laugh-

US housing starts fell more than expected in May to their lowest level in five months, as a popular homebuyer tax credit expired.

fell more than expected???? inconceivable(-:!!!

maybe our nod to austerity will be- "you see- we didn't extend the home buyer tax credit- we're fiscally responsible."

karen said...

good morning!!! CV, one of your best posts ever! so much good news this morning.. even from fedex:

FedEx cautions on fiscal-2011 profit growth, citing pensions, health care and maintenance

mcHAPPY said...

MarketWatch headline:

FedEx doesn't see a slowdown in European growth

karen said...

futures are hardly down at all.. maybe that's a good thing.

CV said...

@72

I'm sure the "unspoken" idea (regarding a nuke), is that if you "irradiate" a well like that, then it's basically "curtains" for possible future oil extraction...

It's what CV has talked about MANY MANY times...

It's "The GOLDFINGER clause"... Goldfinger didn't want to steal the gold/tungsten from Ft. Knox... He wanted to detonate a nuke to irradiate the gold (rendering it useless)...

In this case, it's not just Gulf Oil that's the prospect, but if you detonate a nuke, then the talk starts circulating that the "oil is irradiated", and therefore useless...

Guess what? You have terrorists all over the world with suitcase bombs running around oil wells...

That's probably already the case... But this is the idea that I proposed many times as being the REASON the US is in Iraq... (to protect the wells & to be around neighboring countries)... All the stuff you read about anything else is fluff & hogwash...

25% of the worlds oil still comes right out of the Straits of Hormuz...

Nic said...

Housing starts were ugly today but for some reason MBA reports mortgage applications up and industrial production up.
market looks indecisive but I think we test 1122

McFearless said...

Elliot Wave International has written extensively for over a decade now about government actions during credit deflation dating back to the 1800's. I tried once here, maybe about two months ago, to make the point that while the size of the Fed's/Governments actions to date have been enormous and without parallel with regard to size (a simple function of the debt being so large, therefore the response to the deflation of debt is large), their actions have simply been what they or governments have always done, they were not "unprecedented", nor were they "unexpected".

Today from TBP:

“The term “quantitative easing” became popular jargon in 2009. After setting the target for the federal funds rate at a range of zero to 25 basis points on December 28, 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee announced its intent to purchase up to approximately $1.7 trillion of agency debt, agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury securities. The Treasury collaborated, buying for its own account approximately $220 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities during 2009. This policy was labeled quantitative easing.

Few analysts recall, however, that this is the second, not the first, quantitative easing by U.S. monetary authorities. During 1932, with congressional support, the Fed purchased approximately $1 billion in Treasury securities (half, however, was offset by a decrease in Treasury bills discounted at the Reserve Banks). At the end of 1932, short-term market rates hovered at 50 basis points or less. Quantitative easing continued during 1933-36.”

karen said...

this is going to be something: Largest Part Of BofA's $1.252B Deal Launches At 20BPS Over...
9:38 AM ET | Dow Jones

McFearless said...

And I might add to the above, history shows that QE works until it doesn't so I stick by the idea that I'll be hugely short next time it comes around, and that it's not a foregone conclusion that it's going to prop up the price of risk assets.

Nic said...

Thanks McF

Nic said...

Crude inventories, Consensus: -1.5m, 10:30 ET $CL_F

CV said...

@Nic (9:29)

I'm not so sure about that... (testing 1122)...

At this point, it's probably a foregone conclusion that we test it eventually...

But when the SPX leaves these "gaps" at the open, to me, they've been an indication that the momentum will flow in the direction of the gap...

Basically saying... "OK, we left a mark - we'll come back and cover you eventually - but for now, let's just 'shake the tree' a little"...

Lloyd "picking up pennies"... Especially during QUAD WITCHING week...

Anyway, just a theory... Nothing to back it up...

So everybody... go back to listening to Art Hogan (who is nervously chewing on his nuts right now to see if the 200MA holds at 1007)...

So far so good for that...

Genius... thou Art...

Anonymous said...

Nic-

mortgage applications for purchases are up 7.3% from the previous week- the MBA's take is as follows-

"While it is clear that purchase applications in May dropped sharply as a result of the tax credit induced increase in applications in April, it is unclear whether we are seeing the beginnings of a rebound now.”

the takeaway- there was a huge drop due to the expiration of the tax credit- so any increase is coming off that huge drop-

to put it in perspective-

mortgage applications for purchase transactions were 31.3 percent lower than the same week one year ago

anyway - gotta roll out-

all have a great day

CV said...

@McF

My impression of QE (in that this is the first time in my life I've ever witnessed such a thing in operation) is this...

The Market takes it as a way to push the pedal down even harder...

Don't read that as "prices rise"... On the contrary...

The market basically says... "OK - so you've put an inflatable there to catch my jump off the 5th floor ledge.'How ya like me now'? Got an inflatable for this kind of jump?"

McFearless said...

C,

I get what you are saying there....that makes sense, and the next jump....hard landing.

McFearless said...

I also think the dynamic btwn now and the depression is interesting, as we've discussed, the next round of QE will come after the fact, they were doing QE then AFTER a huge amount of damage was already done, it was 1932.... reacting as they ALWAYS do...and it didn't work anyway, deflation just needed to run its course.

Nic said...

Thanks Ahab

I just read this:
What does it mean when you hold rates at zero for two years, print more than a Trillion dollars & still don't get inflation?"
The Deflation monster is out of his cage

CV said...

@McF

Yeah... At this point, basically it's PEDAL TO THE METAL as far as risk is concerned (now that the banks know they have politicians by the cojones)...

How that manifests particularly in terms of asset prices is anybody's guess...

But I expect VOLATILITY and lots of it... "Economic Distasters" as it turns out, will be highly profitable...

McFearless said...

Nic, no worries, it's just the undefinable "lag time", the universal excuse of all inflationists....

McFearless said...

and more, states continue to act on the trend that's already been left behind by social mood...never ending borrowing and leverage:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/06/toxic-pension-and-municipal-bonds-state.html

CV said...

@McF

Probably the next world leader to take a bullet in the arse will be the one who tries to shut down the casino...

McFearless said...

some people discussing max pain over at Dan's, it's at 1130, and, as perhaps the biggest bear here, I'm not happy to say I don't think this is the start of a huge wave down, just gotta call it like I see it, so perhaps if we don't get to 1130 by the end of the week we'll be seeing it early next week....maybe it's a wave 2, maybe.... but with max pain at 1130 I think it's probably premature to be calling yesterday the top of 2, better short entries await.

CV said...

@McF

I'm on board with the higher numbers...

However, this being a QUAD WITCHING week, I'm basically on board with anything (even a pullback to the 1180's which comes roaring back intraday)...

CV said...

Whatever causes MAX CONFUSION...

karen said...

Gap Up, Gap Down, Gap Up, Gap Down

The bipolar market with the attention span of a flea, and no memory from day to day, continues.

Each day is its own entity without memory of the last. Twice in the last 2 weeks (including Monday) have we had nasty intraday reversals down in the closing hour (which are traditionally bearish for the next day), only to be forgotten by the next morning as premarket magic makes everyone forget. Weak retails sales Friday were forgotten within an hour as the market regained all losses. The weak unemployment data a week ago friday was forgotten in 2 sessions. We've now had something like five 2.5-3% rallies in single days in the past 3-4 weeks. Within a greater downtrend no less. I am still unclear what exactly caused all the great cheer in markets Monday and Tuesday aside from a Euro bounce.

Nic said...

We are back to the 5-minute macro as LB and macroman say

McFearless said...

alright all, have a great r.o.w, I gotta head out for a few days.

good luck trading, or enjoy doing nothing!

CV said...

@Nic

LOL

leftback said...

Morning all...

LB just talked to another "Things are Looking Up" person....
Happy Days Are Here Again....

Oh dearie me.... people can't think their way out of a paper bag.
Person was probably ready to off herself in March 2009.

CV said...

@leftback

"Read My Lips"... Oh wait... Roosters don't have lips...

Nic said...

Bye McFearless, enjoy your break

Cold Steel said...

Enjoy the day, Bears, I am taking a break. I will probably be back tomorrow after initial claims, so keep the lube handy.

BinT said...

http://maggiesnotebook.blogspot.com/2010/06/ken-salazar-cheats-drilling-report.html

Ken Salazar Cheats Drilling Report: Drilling Moratorium May Prevent US to Drill for Years

Obama's Interior Secretary, Ken Salazar, changed a critical report on the safety of drilling for oil in deep water environs. He cheated. A panel of experts "peer reviewed" Salazar's report and signed-off at the 'final' review. That final review report did not recommend a drilling moratorium. Never mind, Ken Salazar just changed it to suit his and Obama's ideological viewpoint (Obama was in on it) - which is to call for a moratorium on existing and new drilling permits. Most surprising, however, is the information that if a moratorium happens, the floating rigs will be moved to other places around the world and may not be available to the U.S. "for years." That's not all, the moratorium may be worse for the economy than the moratorium itself.

...I know, I know...we may not let those oil people make a living anymore, but it is for their own good. Isn't that right? This administration is always going to tell us the truth, right?

CV said...

@BinT

It was the "enviro-maniacs" who pushed the drilling & exploration out into deep water to begin with...

Anonymous said...

"The bipolar MEL with the attention span of a flea, and no memory from day to day continues... now I forgot where I put my daily to/do list. Have we met before, Karen?

Old joke...How can you tell the concert staging is level?

Check the drummers mouth to see which side of his mouth the drool is flowing.

Leftback said...

Another tedious first round game in progress. Be patient, this is typical and the good stuff is on the way as the second set of matches begins, where at least one of the teams has to attack.

For all of the criticism of England, that was the best game to watch so far because it had energy, emotion and pace, although you had to admire the surgical demolition of Australia by Germany.

karen said...

what does this mean??? from ZH. i am in shock and refuse to believe it.

In a stunning development for millions of American who no longer pay their mortgages with the blessing of Uncle Obama, only to use all this "excess" money to buy Apple apps and whatever latest gadget Steve Jobs' gizmo factory comes out with, they are now fresh out of luck in redirecting cash flow that otherwise would go to adding some much needed realistic cash to support bank mark-to-myth balance sheets (we wonder if the FASB will ever release a pro forma analysis of how many hundreds of billions, if not trillions, the combined TBTF capitalization is underwater if banks are indeed forced to mark their loans to market). In an internal AT&T memo, reported by the Boy Genius Report, and likely leaked intentionally to drive up the iPhone 4 release frenzy a few notches higher, the firm has told its employees "that pre-orders for the iPhone — whether they be new activations, upgrades, or exchanges — have been “temporarily suspended.”

karen said...

so i just tried to pre-order an iphone and i am not eligible until march 7, 2011..

Leftback said...

Pepe is going to choke on his paella if the Swiss can hang on.....

karen said...

i think aapl could be a good short on this news.. (tho current short ratio is less than 2%..

Shares Outstanding 909.9 M
Institutional Ownership 67.53%
Number of Floating Shares 904.0 M
Short Interest as % of Float 1.32%

Leftback said...

This is what I love about the World Cup.

The surprises, the shocks, the slip-ups, the Schadenfreude. Not to mention the crude nationalistic insults and caricatures.....

karen said...

i am wholly convinced that BP will take out its 2003 low. inflation adjusted it already has, actually. i really hate this market right now.. because i can't understand it.

karen said...

oops, i goofed.. i qualify to buy it for $199 in March of 2011.. i can buy it now for $399!

that changes everything.. BUY AAPL

Nic said...

Pepe is not having a good week at all ...

CV said...

@karen

Just turn all your charts upside down...

The picture will become clearer...

Nic said...

CBOE total put/call ratio as of 10:00 AM is 1.26; total call volume is 662K vs. 833K puts

Leftback said...

LB works with a colleague from España who is "self-loving" and arrogant in the extreme. This is a gift.

BinT said...

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

"I used to cover the energy business (oil, gas and alternative) here in Texas, and the few experts in the oil field -- including geologists, chemists, etc. -- able or willing to even speak of this BP event told me early on that it is likely the entire reserve will bleed out. Unfortunately none of them could say with any certainty just how much oil is in the reserve in question because, for one thing, the oil industry and secrecy have always been synonymous. According to BP data from about five years ago, there are four separate reservoirs containing a total of 2.5 billion barrels (barrels not gallons). One of the reservoirs has 1.5 billion barrels. I saw an earlier post here quoting an Anadarko Petroleum report which set the total amount at 2.3 billion barrels. One New York Times article put it at 2 billion barrels."

...there is not nearly enough gloom today...so enjoy!

Leftback said...

The difficulty of fixing a significant sized hole 5000 feet down at the bottom of the ocean has been under-estimated. Even POTUS may be unable to solve this problem. This is what happens when you work at the limits and mess with Nature.

Come on you Swiss....

mcHAPPY said...

I feel confident in stating minor 2 will be over today.

What does that really mean? Nothing BUT:

the ratios work out very well for 1115.59 to be the end of iii (just missing 1.618 of i by around 1 point),
1107.13 being the end of iv,
and we are working on the final v of 5 of C,
if i=v then 1119-1120 would be a target for the end of minor 2,
a drop below 1107.13 before a break of 1115.59 would certainly call this in to question.

THe time relationships work with this count and the news events on the horizon can certainly add credibility namely:

ZH article re: Spain and ensuing denials
Initial Jobless claims tomorrow.

I still think we go higher on DXY due to strength of rise and Ra looking for 91 on DXY and lower on the EUR/USD due to strength of decline and major fibo around 1.15 not reached - or even attempted really.

In both EUR/USD and DXY the 5th waves (as labelled now) have been pretty weak. I find this odd given they are currencies (known for 5th wave blow-offs) and waves 1 and three have been so strong. I cannot see a 5th wave wrapping up in a couple of weeks after waves 1-4 took 6 months to unfold.

Just my thoughts. Lots of time to think with the cold steel pinning me against the wall, you know.

72bat said...

even as rachel madow's sarcastic deadpan contrast of macondo with the ixtapa disaster pointed out, while drilling technology advanced from 200' depth to 5000' depth "capabilities," techniques for mitigating drilling accidents advanced not at all. bp's macondo efforts mirrored those used (unsuccessfully) with ixtapa. america, nation of risk-takers, now pays the price for walking the high wire without a net.

Leftback said...

A lesson in World Cup football, Andy T, as the favorites go down in flames. The Curse has struck the Pride of Spain yet again.

Madrid will be in mourning by midnight......

mcHAPPY said...

.... and rioting by dawn.

Gimme an A
Gimme an U
Gimme a S
Gimme a T
Gimme an E
Gimme a R
Gimme an I
Gimme a T
Gimme a Y

Whatcha got? AUSTERITY!

And whatcha gonna do? RIOT!

Anonymous said...

Are the refs the only ones who know how much time is left in a match?

CV said...

@Anon

Yeah... Kinda like central bankers...

karen said...

BP not up much on the $20B escrow account news..

trading diary said...

Ben@9:41
Thanks you for pointing out the first QE...

karen said...

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010, 11:24 am
Source: The Palm Beach Post
Florida's struggling homeowners could get an 18-month reprieve on mortgage payments under a state plan to spend $418m in federal foreclosure prevention aid.

The money is part of $1.5bn the Obama administration announced in February for five states hardest hit by the real estate crash and unemployment. Other states sharing the $1.5bn are Nevada, California, Arizona and Michigan.

CV said...

He's so smart!

Why didn't I think of that?

CV said...

But why should the homeowners be the only ones to get bailed out?

Why can't I just run up a credit card to 6 figures and then ask for a reprieve?

Or a car?

or a boat?

or a ski chalet in Aspen?

karen said...

my quote stream is getting jittery..

CV said...

On the 10 min. charts, there are 3 "div" waves on the MAC-d (SPX)...

Somebody's algo is going to have to get enthused or we're going to roll over...

However... With these manipulated markets, I wouldn't be surprised to stay ABOVE the 200MA for the close (just so Art Hogan can pee his pants)...

Then the rebound will be SECURE in place...

Which means tomorrow we can gap down below it (lol)...

karen said...

CV, i want a reprieve too.. can someone take over the costs of my two sons?

72bat said...

in the midst of this piece Some More Bad Spanish News For The IMF To Refute @ zerohedge, this:
"The World Cup kicked off last Friday, and 13 of the 32 nations involved (or 41%) are Western European. We investigate whether Euro-Bund futures traded volumes have historically dipped during June and July of those years when the competition took place. Using data spanning 1993 to 2009 and including four tournaments we find that those months during which the World Cup took place showed little difference in trading volumes from those in the corresponding months of non-World Cup years. So even during ‘the greatest show on earth’, it would appear that it’s largely business as usual in the fixed income markets."
see, lb never slacks off, not even for the world cup.

mcHAPPY said...

One more push higher and I'm taking the computer with me under the bed and waiting for the sirens to blare.

CV said...

@karen

"i want a reprieve too.. can someone take over the costs of my two sons?"

Obama will pay your gas & mortgage (and two sons) & I'm sure, their gas & mortgages too...

It's all good...

CV said...

Gordon Gekko says...

"never get emotional about money"

Leftback said...

In those days, European bonds were boring safe assets.

Not a good tournament for PIGS. 2 points and 1 goal from 4 matches for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain combined. Meanwhile the Germans are 3 points and 4 goals.... maybe a moral there.

LB would like a bailout for his rent. Karen, it's hard to believe that you have two sons, you being so young and lovely...

Nic said...

Rumours spreading that "Matt Simmons' allegation "oil lake under GoM" is near delusional. Data he cites does not exist."

karen said...

but cv, i don't have a mtg.. i guess i should get one and then not pay it.. i must be un-american!

CV said...

@karen

I know right?! (no mortgage)... I too must have been the dumbest you know what on the planet to go cash on the farm...

karen said...

LB, that makes me laugh.. my current beau asked me if they were adopted because he didn't think i could have had them either.. and i need to laugh after seeing how much $ my husband is spending on his new gf this morning.. everyone is catching my wrath today!

72bat said...

no mortgage? isn't that illegal in the oc? unheard of. it's unamerican!

CV said...

@karen

BTW-

I know you thumb your nose at the idea of Tilapia... BUT...

First, some tilapia facts: "Tilapia are now the fifth-most consumed fish in the U.S. It’s a remarkably “unfishy” fish, and it tends to taste like whatever sauce it’s served with. This mild flavor, combined with its low price point, probably explains why consumers love it, and chefs hate it."

Environmentalists encourage eating tilapia. Oceans Alive ranks U.S. farmed tilapia as an “eco-best” choice, meaning they don’t damage the environment (through pollution of waters, reduction of biodiversity, overharvesting, etc.). So does National Geographic’s Green Guide.

Tilapia are also lower in contaminants than other fish. Growseed says that: “as concerns about mercury contamination in fish increases, pond-raised tilapia are a safe toxin-free food because they do not build up environmental pollutants in their meat. That’s why Co-op America places tilapia squarely on the “safe” list.

Not to mention that the ECO-SYSTEM that the farmed fish create, allow you to grow a CHEMICAL FREE horticultural environment...

Organic veggies baby! :-)

karen said...

Just how much higher can this thing go on negative internals?

karen said...

CV.. nice try but no dice.

Cold Steel said...

"it tends to taste like whatever sauce it’s served with"

Sounds a lot like Bear... I prefer Steel Cut, roasted Bear

72bat said...

nic lenoir quoted by zerohedge:
"in Spain, Greece, Portugal, France, and Italy ...governments are trying to figure out how to balance their check books. They will not succeed in the end and either the Euro area will partially break up, or the Eurozone will be simply disbanded. The only thing that can delay the crisis is for European politicians to stop talking. Otherwise since there is no solution every thing they say will be analyzed, criticized, proven stupid, and the market will sell EURUSD and PIIGS debt.

CV said...

@72bat

Or they could all just agree to a $15 trillion dollar bailout package and kick the can down the road for two more years...

Nic said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Nic said...

Karen
Coffee is up 20% in six days on supply crunch fears (2yrs bad harvests). Time to stock up.

karen said...

You know, the Fed isn't the only entity that creates money out of thin air:

U.S. corporations that gave stock options to executives claimed tax deductions in 2008 that were $52 billion higher than the costs they reported to shareholders, a U.S. senator said.

“Current stock option accounting and tax rules are out of kilter,” Levin said in a statement. He said companies “benefited from an outdated and overly generous stock option tax rule that produces tax deductions that often far exceed companies’ reported expenses. It’s a stock option tax break we can no longer afford and ought to end.”

Levin’s legislation would limit tax deductions that companies claim on tax filings to the amount they report as an expense to shareholders. He previously introduced versions of the bill in 1997, 2003 and 2007.

Current rules allow companies to report different stock option expenses to the IRS than they do to investors. An option provides the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific amount of stock at a set time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ae3AwgZsL7OE&pos=5

Nic said...

Fasten your seatbelts, I spy the rally monkey

arbitrage789 said...

Nic @ 9:04

What is a "XXX" stock?

Is PLA an example of this?

CV said...

@Nic

or, OTOH...

I put a new chart in the thread

karen said...

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010, 11:48 am
New home sales were down 27% in May, according to a John Burns Real Estate Consulting (JBREC) survey of builders.

Nic said...

UR funny DL

CV said...

@Nic

But to your point... The last attempt at the upper boundary of that channel "missed" by a little bit... So it may still wiggle up there...

I'm not on board with a massive MELT-UP today though...

These days remind me of the action around the days of 1220... Reluctant nudges up...

Leftback said...

Today really is a Stress Test in Madrid:

Spanish Banks Stress Tests

The thing is if you have to have a STRESS TEST we know that your HEART probably is weak.... right Bruce?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Mi corazon is muy bueno. It is my hamstring that is giving me a pain in the lower region today. No running I think for the next week or so.

Nic said...

CV I am just eyeing fib retracement from 13May high and 25 May low. We respected all the other fib levels so I think the 61.8 is a given now

Nic said...

Simmons and BP gossip:
http://www.businessinsider.com/letter-matthew-simmons-is-resigning-from-simmons-and-co-2010-6

Anonymous said...

"Fasten your seatbelts, I spy the rally monkey"

did CV leave his FLY DOWN?

Nic said...

From ZH:
"Let's see: Simmons sees BP at $0 and expects nukes to be deployed to clean it up its mess; Simmons & Co. on the other hand upgrades BP to a Buy on Friday with a $52 PT. Should pretty much explain it."

It would have been nice to get expert opinion from someone who didn't quote the share price and therefore wasn't talking their book.
All that panic about the "real" leak being 7 miles away and a "lake of oil on the floor of the GOM"

Nic said...

I am not saying that the GOM isn't an absolute disaster, it is. But relying on BP to pay for it all won't work if you destroy the company's value.

CV said...

@Nic

Yeah let's bankrupt them...

Then ask them to pay damages...

CV said...

Wait... but before you go bankrupt, make a 2012 re-election campaign donation...

karen said...

quote of the day from ZH: There was a lot of good economic news today. The market is merely reflecting that
2 minutes ago via TweetDeck

arbitrage789 said...

Nic @ 2:05

"relying on BP to pay for it all won't work if you destroy the company's value"


Yeah, and let's destroy our relationship with the U.K. government while we're at it.

Obama said...

A $7.00/per gallon tax on gasoline will solve our energy problems.

(and create a new honey-pot for more spending).

mcHAPPY said...

Watching 1113.25

Nic said...

Obama just called BP a strong and viable company and praised it. He must have realised ...
BP shares are wild

Nic said...

BP is going to put more money into the economy paying for clean up and compensating businesses in the Gulf than ppl realise. Money into the economy is money into the economy is less stimulus he has to find. Its a very unpleasant way to have to do it but there is some upside.

mcHAPPY said...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2409-Ehhhh...-BP-A-Zero.html

I wonder if Obama read this today.

Nic said...

BP suspends dividend ...

CV said...

Louisiana Shrimper 1
Scottish Widow 0

CV said...

I guess Obama figured he couldn't count on the "Scottish Widow" vote...

BinT said...

Nic:

Babe, it isn't so much this year that bothers me about the gulf. This is not like Alaska, it is a much bigger spill, and the gulf region depends on tourism, cafes, selling fishing charters, and so forth. I read something today that some opine that because the temp is higher in the gulf than Alaska, that the oil will be processed naturally faster. Maybe....

but put me squarely in the multi-year fiasco column....

Mrs Edna MacGonagle said...

Ye ken, I dinna like Yanks, but he has a canny wee bum....

karen said...

finally some news of import:

Lucara Diamond Corp. (TSX VENTURE: LUC) ("Lucara" or the "Company") is pleased to report that a 53.5 carat, white Type IIA diamond has been recovered in the first week of production at the Company's Mothae mine in Lesotho.

BinT said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37729812/

Buffett And Gates Issue Challenge to Fellow Billionaires to Pledge Half their Fortunes

...When you are multi-billionaires and you pledge half of your billions at death..come on, what wusses...

Man up, boys. Give it all now! Then issue the challenge. It don't mean a thing if you are looking at grass from the root side....Let's see if you can do it again...it is not where you end up, it is all about the trip!

Obama said...

Where can I get some more of those photoshopped pics? I kind of look like I COULD kick some ass lookin' like the GW.

Bobby Jindal said...

http://whitehouse.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/06/14/obama-says-gulf-coast-seafood-safe-to-eat/

Obama Says Gulf Coast Seafood Safe to Eat

..That was retchedly insensitive.

wunsacon said...

Two weeks ago, I stopped eating seafood, because there's motivation and opportunity for anyone in the supply chain to lie about safety. From the Pres to the intentionally-or-not clueless waiter serving the food.

Now, I just eat pink slime.

Nic said...

BinT
I agree, they still have oil problems from the Exxon Valdez spill. This is going to last for a generation.
The fund is a good thing, Exxon challenged their damages in court for 20 years and ended up spending more on lawyers than damages.

BinT said...

Nic,

I agree the fund is a very good thing.

Not letting ocean rigs continue to drill....a very, shall I say "thought-less" thing...

karen said...

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010, 2:11 pm
CitiMortgage, the servicing arm of Citigroup (C: 3.99 0.00%), will suspend foreclosures in coastal areas affected by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

mcHAPPY said...

Next up 1107.13.

wunsacon said...

>> It was the "enviro-maniacs" who pushed the drilling & exploration out into deep water to begin with...

Awe, c'mon, CV. The "enviro-maniacs" don't want drilling anywhere, even in deep water. But, there's not enough of them to make that happen. But, there *are* enough local businesses along many shorelines that think that nearby drilling increases the odds of contamination. These businesses want enough oil for tourists to fly/drive to their beaches. But, they don't want oil companies to spoil the attraction.

Stop blaming environmentalists for this.

72bat said...

"Not letting ocean rigs continue to drill..."
unless leaseholder/driller/responsible parties have demonstrable capability to contain/mitigate a blow out? and sufficient assets and/or liability insurance to cover damages? not likely that every outfit operating in the gulf necessarily has the same deep pockets as bp who assured that they did have those capabilities.

wunsacon said...

>> businesses along many shorelines that think that nearby drilling increases the odds of contamination. These businesses want enough oil for tourists to fly/drive to their beaches. But, they don't want oil companies to spoil the attraction.

I should add a couple of things. First, to clarify, the push to deep-water is classic NIMBY-ism. Second, although I respect Denninger and read him every day, the other day he basically blasted these same "enviro-maniacs" for in effect making the US dependent on foreign oil and pushing the problem out to the foreigners. He made it sound like the "enviro-maniacs" want foreigners to dirty themselves because they're racist. But, I think Karl's presumption of "ill will" here is false. The enviro's want to end dependence on fossil fuel. Period. Just because Karl sees them protest locally doesn't mean that's the sum total of their protesting/lobbying efforts. And there are limits to them protesting in, say, Saudi Arabia. They're not going to buy plane tickets and go protest there.

If people want to understand each other, they should try to find explanations that don't depend on presumptions of ill will...

CV said...

@wunsacon

I'm not "blaming" anybody for anything...

I'm only stating that... Once started... propaganda campaigns take on a life of their own...

It's like ETHANOL...

OK, so you want biofuel?

- You grow a "corn base" for ethanol
- Which is very water intensive grow (so you drain the Ogalalla in the process

And the result?

- corn prices increase (leading farmers to cull cattle, chicken, & pig herds due to economics)
- food price inflation
- and you can't "transport" the ethahol anyway because it erodes the containers...

That's all a simplistic view... But my point is, you have EGGHEADS who just sit around in classrooms and think of these things without playing out the knock on effects in a scenario...

"Enviro-Maniacs" are especially good at it... Especially the ones like Al Gore who burns up tons of jet fuel to go around talking about it...

If he's so passionate about it... Why not just sit home in a teepee and put it on YOU TUBE...

wunsacon said...

I'm not going to defend biofuel... Although, again, I don't know how much of the push for that is "environmentalists at large" versus "a few (wrong) environmentalists plus ADM/Monsanto".

As for Al Gore, I generally defend him. But, yeah, I would like to see large-scale telecommuting. So, yes, he could set a better example there.

BinT said...

Boys,

You don't stop people from driving because you see a car wreck. This was just grandstanding, whether you admit it or not. Send inspectors, more inspectors to the rigs currently drilling. But don't take away drilling for 6 months. Or please, give me the concession for rose-colored glasses...

CV said...

@wunsacon

Bottom line?

Americans... You don't like this stuff?... Or the 'potential' of it?...

Stop driving your cars around... And shut off the lights... Or STFU... period...

I can't tell which is less realistic... Hey, but at least we can say we're not the Chinese...

Anonymous said...

Uh, I suppose these are supposed to be government inspectors.

Kind of like lawyers, they're all worthless scum until you need one?

karen said...

I need a drink!

72bat said...

then there's this biofuel - paul stamets' 6 ways mushrooms can save the world including ethanol from fungi-produced sugar

BinT said...

@Anonymous:

What we need, then, is lawyer inspectors! I can think of what would be a good remedy for failure to pass....

wunsacon said...

Bruce,

If I were in charge, I would announce a 6-month moratorium, too. Why? Well, why would I trust the MMS not to have been ignoring many other audits and red flags as well? I would send in some people to simultaneously audit the MMS itself and check all the current drilling projects, to see if anything's amiss with them.

Would I keep the moratorium for each one? No. I would prioritize the list and give the green flag for each project as its reviewed.

Yes, if there's a blanket ban for the *whole* 6 months, then I would start worrying about the even the facades falling down in our Potemkin "recovery".

...By the way, I saw some LA politician suggested allowing the drill ships to drill part of their way down to whatever oil deposits they're after. That way, the drill ships have a head start for when they're cleared to continue. If I were chief, I'd consider that, too.

BinT said...

Seriously, government is always like that...yes, you have to depend on the government inspectors to do their job...kind of a novel idea, isn't it? Kind of like surgeons are supposed to know anatomy, it kind of helps the procedure to an orderly conclusion.

wunsacon said...

>> You don't stop people from driving because you see a car wreck.

But, you do stop people from driving if it's a 1-car accident, if the brakes failed, and if everyone has been getting their brakes done at "MMS Brake Jobs".

karen said...

anyone think the 50 ema is going to keep a lid on these indices a third day in a row?

Anonymous said...

Their job is probably to please big campaign donors like BP.

Hey George!

Yeh, we need this guy appointed.

Thanks,
Tony

CV said...

@karen

I need a drink too...

After my workout... :-)

Ciao!

wunsacon said...

>> Stop driving your cars around... And shut off the lights... Or STFU... period...

If I believe in global warming and decide to stop driving but most people continue driving, is my individual action going to solve anything?

Not at all. It just makes gas cheaper for the next guy to drive. And leaves that much "reserve" in the commons for others to pollute. And "pollute it" they eventually will.

If not enough other people want to sacrifice -- by agreeing to a carbon tax which I, too, am willing to pay -- then neither will I. I drive a V6, fly to Europe, go on cruises, etc. I might as well enjoy life, too.

Leftback said...

Cheers Karen... a nice glass of chilled Grenache rosé awaits me.

No bond report - too boring. Spanish auctions tomorrow !!!

72bat said...

cv & lb -
i'm with you, after a work-out, though more than one glass, a crisp & spritzy vinho verde

BinT said...

Wunsacon: You should enjoy life! I drive a Prius, my wife does too, but I don't agree with Cap and Trade, nor am I sure about the science for global warming. I am pretty sure we can price ourselves, by our own volition, out of prosperity. For this and all future generations.

Go Tipper!

wunsacon said...

:-)

Leftback said...

http://www.marca.com/deporte/futbol/mundial/sudafrica-2010/calendario-english.html

BinT said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-May-Be-the-Nail-in-cnbc-2882359507.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Oil May Be the Nail in Florida Housing's Coffin

..."May Be"? I woulda wrote the headline:

Oil Screws Down Tight the Lid on Florida's Coffin.

..ain't no maybe to it....

Anonymous said...

What's up with oil and sugar? DGDF?

QE and zirp forever....................!

AmenRa said...

NEW THREAD UP


***damn wireless card

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.