AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

WTH happened in the last half hour?

Doji day again (more indecision). Still is possible start of evening star (just a day late). 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is still waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 SMA and above the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1086.84). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.

Bearish short day. Morning star went supernova. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 88.40).

Bearish short day (possible inverted hammer). Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Below the 55 SMA and nearing monthly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 24.91). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.

Bullish long day. Confirmed bearish thrusting. Still above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1240.80).

Bullish short day. Unfortunately it confirmed bearish thrusting. Midpoint above the 10EMA. Back above the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.1936).

Bullish short day. Tested the 38.2% retrace (passed) and now above the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).

Spinning top day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint below the 10EMA. No one wants to play in their sandbox. Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).

Bearish short day (after gapping up on open). Midpoint above 10 SMA. Still below the 21 SMA. Tested the 85.4% retrace (failed). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.12).

Hammer day. Still above the 21 SMA and 38.2% retrace. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 50.53).

Weekly view of lumber. All you'll need to know about the housing market. Can't have an economic recovery without a housing recovery and this chart says expect a "double dip".


Leftback said...

H & S on the silver chart....

Which one of these PMs is telling PORKY PIES?

mcHAPPY said...

Here is my two cents:

We are either going much higher - like 1130-1150 high.


WE are going much lower - like minor 3 low.

Nic said...

Or ... its Friday, world cup is on, and the chop monster makes an appearance tomorrow


Anonymous said...

Gold not high in CAD or Rupee.


AmenRa said...

The longer shadow usually points in the direction the market wants to go (unless there's a helping hand).

Wes said...

sorry LB, you can't have my that price

AmenRa said...

Added a weekly chart for Lumber. Ouch. Housing is headed down...hard.

BinT said...

411,000 newly unemployed at the end of July. And I bet they haven't visited Leftback's mansion and recorded his vital statistics.

....Lefty, how about it? I hear all the census workers up where you live look like Angelina Jolie???

Anonymous said...

Wealthy families in Europe in Gold, treasuries, and cash

"Wealthy families up gold buys: Investment managers".

"Companies that manage money for the wealty , called family offices, focus more on preserving wealth than large investment gains. When the credit crunch crisis hit, they shifted into safe assest including treasuries, cash and gold".

Bought ets and miners.

Hugh Hendry said increase gold allocation - but donot buy shares.

"Even the cab drivers are talking about buying gold now...".

So Gold down from here?

Who's left to buy?

BinT said...

Through for the evening. Thanks for the lumber chart Amen...the kid who needs the land for truck farming finally signed the contract and I don't have to cut all the hay again this year. Hallleeluuuuuujah!

Anonymous said...

Stories from the globe and on business:

"Slide in shipping shows global recovery running out of steam". Baltic index down 15 consecutive days as raw material demand falters.

"China in no mood to discuss yuan appreciation".

"Gold breaks another record". so did Tips etf.

CPI numbers are cooked. Garbage in garbage out. Inflation in things you need is high. Food, fuel, insurance etc.

Anonymous said...

From Trader Mark's site,

"New York State Public Workers Pensions Revealed on New Website: Topping the list is a Teacher at $261k Annually".

NY Public Library Worker : $189K.

Anonymous said...

I like Boston to cover the spread (-7) tonight.


Bill Fleckenstein's Mullet said...

Anonymous- The TIPS strength is entirely attributable to the general rally in US Treasury securities. Implied inflation rates are actually down slightly from the beginning of 2010.

bob said...

Great show last night. I meant to post it this morning before I went out. Devo performs at the end.

AmenRa said...

Great game. Congrats again to the Lakers.

Now back to business. Those two dojis on the SPX are ominous. Either it's about to take off or crash hard. Opinions?

Anonymous said...

@ Anon, Thanks.

Did anyone notice the 3% fall in Copper last night?


wunsacon said...

>> Lefty, how about it? I hear all the census workers up where you live look like Angelina Jolie???

Wow, where's that?? I bet no one mails in their forms. Gotta make the census workers come a'knocking.

Nic said...

Gold ... making a run and eating the shorts stops above the highs.
See if this new high brings the buyers in when the fear seems to have subsided (for now)

AmenRa said...


What about those institutions that hold massive short positions?

Nic said...

Yeah they are feeling the steel ...

Nic said...

and will no doubt be selling more

Nic said...

Germany Serbia could be setting up to be an upset ...

Anonymous said...

2nd half would be very interesting. They will manage a draw at least.


AmenRa said...


I just want to see how they are going to play it when the next contract nears expiration.

CV said...


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