AmenRa's Corner "Phi Day"

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection

Can we hit the wall of this creditcane already.

Spinning top day (body too large for doji). Working off overbought or prepping for crash? 1078.87 (fibo 1.618 from low) is still waiting for retest. Closed above the 21 SMA and above the 233 SMA. Midpoint now above 10EMA. Back above the trendline using 2010 lows & the 3/6/09-5/25/10 trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal now 1091.60). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal (it's a long month). QE2infinity.

Spinning top day. Down move is looking tired. Midpoint below 10EMA. The 85.11 (fibo .1459) is still holding (91.80 is next). Back below the 76.4% retrace. New low on daily 3LB (reversal still 88.23).

Bearish short day (aka fake inverted hammer from 6/17/10). Midpoint below 10EMA. "Fear is here so don't get fooled on market pumps (still holds true)." Below the 55 SMA and below monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is now 45.79). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal.

Spinning top day. Closed above previous high. Well above the 21 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. "To hell with fiat! Say it again! I'm gold and I'm proud!" (Gold's rally cry). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1240.80).

Doji day (body < 5% of h-l range). Indecision (or scared of weekend surprises). Midpoint above the 10EMA. Back above the fibo .1855 at 1.2336. The test of the 1.1571 (the .236 fibo level) has been delayed (for now). Far below trendline (11/27/09-3/17/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.1936).

Bullish short day. Tested the 50.0% retrace (failed) but above the 233 SMA. Midpoint above 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.38).

Spinning top day. Still below the 21 SMA. Midpoint now above the 10EMA. No rest for the wicked. Still no test of the 2.058 fibo (using low) of 144.98. Still wants to test the 1.618 fibo (using low) of 124.12. No daily 3LB changes (reversal still 144.95).

Bullish short day. Trading above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 235.86). Also had a daily 3LB reversal up on 6/17/10.

Bearish short day. Still trapped by candle body from the long down day on 6/9/10. Still below the 0.0% retrace. Still below the 10EMA. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.86).


Nic said...

Thank you AmenRa for the charts and update.

Thank you Chicago for sending such a shitty thunderstorm my way so I don't have to cut the grass tonight.

Thank you traders-anonymous for being such good and insightful company.

Wow, I just found three things to be thankful for on a shitty day :)

AmenRa said...


Don't feel bad. That storm uprooted trees all over the city. Winds were 60-70 mph. Very unusual. But I've been telling others that the thunder has been deeper and louder this year. So there is a change somewhere up there.

mcHAPPY said...

Bears are disappearing again - that is what I am thankful for.

Nic said...

McHappy there is a good post at ZH about the switch in EUR
The biggest short covering ever ... overall positioning has gone from highest short positions ever to net long. A lot of bears shaken out of EUR

AmenRa said...


Not disappearing but deciding to hibernate a little longer.

Nic said...

I wonder if they are right about this hurricane season being particularly bad and the Gulf of Mexico. That would be terrible.

AmenRa said...

Wasn't it the PM of Greece that said speculators would be sorry?

AmenRa said...


There is no way to know how far that oil will carry in a hurricane. East coast? Midwest? NYC?

Nic said...

Yeah he did. Unfortunately I think the squids of this world made out like bandits downgrading it and forecasting 115 just as the rally began. Fading Goldman FX calls is one of the most profitable strategies ever.

Nic said...

All we need now is Goldman to say buy Gold ...

mcHAPPY said...


The truest of the bears are surely hibernating - or licking their wounds. But the price action and the steady grind higher is making the fickle folk believe this is a typical recovery once again after a serious scare.

I'm starting to notice a good sign for tops and bottoms is MarketWatch. When they discount the possibility of a downside (which they have not yet) it is one good indicator of a top at hand. WHen they act/write headlines that imply stocks are up because that is what they are suppose to do (i.e. tonight's "Another week up for stocks") we are getting closer.

It is looking that max pain for any foolish bear such as myself is going to have to set in with 1150. Hopefully I can avail of these lessons in intermediate 3 of P3.

2's are a bitch - and there is no doubt we are in a 2. Ready for the 3.

Anonymous said...

"This isn't your father's "usual" recovery from recession".

Anonymous said...

At least a bear/bull is not stolen.

"Tiger, two camels believed stolen with a truck in Quebec".

Wes said...

...i'll say it again, i am not selling my gold to that price, biatch!

CV said...

Thanks for the wrap Amen (& the comments ladies & gentlemen)...

CV has had some meetings today so was largely absent... :-(


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